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<p> <font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March 8, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
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<i>[ New book ]</i><br>
<b>Preventing and Healing Climate Traumas</b><br>
A Guide to Building Resilience and Hope in Communities<br>
By Bob Doppelt<br>
eBook Published 29 March 2023<br>
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.4324/9781003262442<br>
eBook ISBN9781003262442<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781003262442/preventing-healing-climate-traumas-bob-doppelt">https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781003262442/preventing-healing-climate-traumas-bob-doppelt</a>
<p></p>
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<font face="Calibri"><i>[ get ready ] </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>California braces for flooding, snowmelt
from a warm atmospheric river set to slam state</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">BY HAYLEY SMITH STAFF WRITER </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">MARCH 7, 2023 </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Another atmospheric river system has set its
sights on California, raising considerable concern about flooding
and structural damage as warm rain is expected to fall atop the
state’s near-record snowpack this week, forecasters say.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">..</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“It now appears increasingly likely that a
potentially significant and very likely warm atmospheric river
event will probably affect some portion of Northern or Central
California sometime between about late Thursday and Saturday,”
UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said during a briefing Monday.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Last week, the odds of such a system developing
were about 20%. By Monday, the chances had increased to “7 or 8
out of 10, if not higher, for a warm atmospheric river event of
some magnitude,” Swain said. At least one more storm could follow
this month...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“We’re going to see rain on top of snow, and
for elevations of say 2,000 feet to about 4,000 feet, a lot of
that snow is going to melt,” said Carlos Molina, a meteorologist
with the National Weather Service in Hanford, Calif. “We’re going
to basically lose a lot of the snow that fell from the previous
storms. We’re looking at potential for flooding.”...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Indeed, the highest likelihood of flood-related
impacts are in lower-elevation areas with unusually deep snowpack,
Swain said. Small rivers and streams in those areas will see
significant potential for runoff issues, as will some urban areas
— particularly in places where storm drains are already clogged by
snow.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">There may also be problems at elevations above
5,000 or 6,000 feet, he said. Though snowpack in such areas is
probably too deep and too cold to be melted by the incoming storm,
it can become heavier as it absorbs more water. That could cause
roof collapses and other structural issues....</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>- - </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri">“We’re going to
see rain on top of snow, and for elevations of say 2,000 feet to
about 4,000 feet, a lot of that snow is going to melt,” said
Carlos Molina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service
in Hanford, Calif. “We’re going to basically lose a lot of the
snow that fell from the previous storms. We’re looking at
potential for flooding.”</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- - </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-03-07/california-forecasters-warn-of-approaching-atmospheric-river">https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-03-07/california-forecasters-warn-of-approaching-atmospheric-river</a></font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ New Zealand is not much better off -
YouTube video ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Southern Ocean Heating: Tropical
Cyclone Gabrielle the worst to hit New Zealand in a Century</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
2,855 views Mar 6, 2023<br>
The Southern Ocean is vitally important to the global climate
system. With no land barriers impeding the zonal flow around
Antarctica, the Southern Ocean basically connects the Atlantic,
Pacific, and Indian Oceans via the fast flowing, dynamic, and deep
extending Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). <br>
<br>
Between 60% and 90% of the global ocean heating goes into the
Southern Oceans (in turn, over 90% of the planetary global heating
increase goes into the world oceans). The upper 1000 meters within
and north of the ACC is warning fast at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2 C per
decade, while the surface sub-polar seas are not warming so much
because of Antarctic ice melt moderating the heating. However the
deep abyssal water in the sup-polar region is warming at a
significant rate of 0.5 C per decade. <br>
<br>
Warmer surface waters lead to higher probabilities of tropical
cyclones occurring. Recently, New Zealand was grazed by Tropical
Cyclone Gabrielle which ended up being the most damaging storm to
hit New Zealand in a century. I chat about some physics behind
these tropical cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes and the their
statistics.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbvm89VHPGI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbvm89VHPGI</a><br>
</font>
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<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Tipping points ]</i><b><br>
</b></font><font face="Calibri"><b>TPDS: how to tip society, not
the planet (#13)</b><b><br>
</b>World Climate Research Programme<br>
372 views Jan 27, 2023 Tipping Elements Discussion Series<br>
This webinar is part of the AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth,
WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity, and partners
discussion series on tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt
changes in the Earth system.<br>
The event included two presentations:<br>
► Climate tipping points: how close are they, and what
can we do about them? - David Armstrong McKay (University of
Exeter)<br>
► Socio-economic tipping points to drive accelerated
adoption of climate solutions – what we know and what we don’t
know - Lloyd Pinnell (Systemiq)<br>
<br>
The webinar was moderated by Ruth Townend (Chatham House).<br>
Website: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tipping-points-positive-tippi">https://tipping-points-positive-tippi</a>...<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPNoGmT_Si4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPNoGmT_Si4</a></b><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> [ This classic essay is key to understanding ]</font><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons</a>
<p>- -</p>
[ Harvard Business School]<br>
<b>TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS: WHAT IT IS AND 5 EXAMPLES</b><br>
The tragedy of the commons refers to a situation in which
individuals with access to a public resource (also called a common)
act in their own interest and, in doing so, ultimately deplete the
resource.<br>
<br>
This economic theory was first conceptualized in 1833 by British
writer William Forster Lloyd. In 1968, the term “tragedy of the
commons” was used for the first time by Garret Hardin in Science
Magazine.<br>
<br>
This theory explains individuals’ tendency to make decisions based
on their personal needs, regardless of the negative impact it may
have on others. In some cases, an individual’s belief that others
won’t act in the best interest of the group can lead them to justify
selfish behavior. Potential overuse of a common-pool resource—hybrid
between a public and private good— can also influence individuals to
act with their short-term interest in mind, resulting in the use of
an unsustainable product and disregard the harm it could cause to
the environment or general public.<br>
<br>
It’s helpful for both firms and individuals to understand the
tragedy of the commons so they can make more sustainable and
environmentally-friendly choices. Here are five real-world examples
of the tragedy of the commons and an exploration of the solution to
this problem.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/tragedy-of-the-commons-impact-on-sustainability-issues">https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/tragedy-of-the-commons-impact-on-sustainability-issues</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[a brief video explanation <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g</a>]</i><br>
<b>What Is the Tragedy of the Commons?</b><br>
HBS Online<br>
3,155 views Aug 17, 2022 Business: Explained<br>
It’s important for professionals to understand the tragedy of the
commons so they can make more sustainable and environmentally
friendly business decisions. Here’s an overview of what the tragedy
of the commons is.<br>
Learn more about the tragedy of the commons on our Business Insights
Blog: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://hbs.me/5ahvxz96">https://hbs.me/5ahvxz96</a> <br>
Find out more about our online course Sustainable Business Strategy:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://hbs.me/yc5wd378">https://hbs.me/yc5wd378</a>
<br>
Explore all our business in society certificate courses: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://hbs.me/55hmbxmm">https://hbs.me/55hmbxmm</a>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ emotionally difficult opinion - <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/">https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/</a></i><i>
- Collapse is not full doom, rather it is radical population
crash ]</i><br>
<b>Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization</b><br>
Alan Urban<br>
Preparing for the collapse of global industrial civilization.<br>
Feb 9, 2023<br>
I have some bad news. Civilization is going to collapse. Not in
1000 years, not in 100 years, but within the lifetimes of most
people alive today.<br>
<br>
It doesn’t necessarily mean humans will go extinct, but at the
very least, billions of people are going to die from disease,
violence, starvation, dehydration, natural disasters, and war.<br>
<br>
How do I know this? Because it has already begun.<br>
<br>
Our global industrial civilization has been headed for collapse
for at least 50 years. That’s how long ago the human population
went into overshoot, a concept that is crucial to understand if
you’re going to make sense of the horrors that await us in the
21st century.<br>
- -<br>
<b>Overshoot and Collapse</b><br>
Thanks to all these new forms of energy and technology, humans
have vastly increased the carrying capacity of the planet.
However, this increased carrying capacity is an illusion. William
R. Catton, author of Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of
Revolutionary Change, called it “phantom carrying capacity.”<br>
<br>
Our ability to feed 8 billion people is completely dependent on
fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas. Once we begin to run out
of them, they will become much more expensive, which means
everything else—especially food—will become much more expensive as
well.<br>
<br>
<b>Peak Oil</b><br>
Peak oil is the point at which the production (or rather,
extraction) of oil peaks then goes into decline. Because there is
a finite amount of oil on this planet, peak oil is going to happen
eventually. The only question is when. But now, there are signs
that peak oil already happened a few years ago.<br>
<br>
Of course, oil companies continue to discover new oil fields, but
they’re not discovering them fast enough to keep up with demand.
In fact, new oil discoveries are at their lowest level in 75
years. Even Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, has
warned that their spare capacity is “extremely low.”<br>
<br>
If we truly have reached peak oil, then we are in big trouble. As
I explained earlier, population growth is directly tied to energy
usage. Without plenty of affordable energy, we cannot continue to
grow our population or even maintain it. Thus the term, “phantom
carrying capacity.”..<br>
- -<br>
<b>How Did We Get Here?</b><br>
Most people refuse to believe that our civilization is
unsustainable and headed for collapse in the near future. There
are people who have been presented with all the facts mentioned in
this article who still refuse to accept the truth.<br>
<br>
But why? There are many possibilities, but I think a big one is
cultural conditioning. Ever since we were born, we were all taught
by the media that technology is a good thing. They say technology
is progress, and the more technology we have, the freer and
happier society will be. Like in Star Trek.<br>
<br>
So when you tell people that actually, technology is destroying
the planet and leading us toward collapse, they find it impossible
to believe. They’ll even say that what we need now is more
technology. But unfortunately, we can’t solve our problems with
the same methods that got us into this predicament.<br>
<br>
There are countless peer-reviewed studies demonstrating that we
are in overshoot right now and that we are headed for a
hunter-gatherer future. These studies are based on empirical data
and basic math, yet many environmentalists refuse to believe it.
They say growth is fine, we just need to switch to “green growth.”<br>
<br>
But it’s not just cultural conditioning that does this to people;
it’s also fear. When I first realized that society will probably
collapse in my lifetime, I tried really hard to convince myself
that it wasn’t true. I started learning about techno fixes, green
energy, and sustainable growth. It took me a long time before I
finally realized that sustainable growth is an oxymoron.<br>
<br>
Ever since the Limits to Growth study back in 1972, it has been
clear that our global civilization would collapse someday, but few
people believed it. Only now that resource depletion and climate
disasters are becoming such obvious problems are people finally
starting to wake up.<br>
- -<br>
<b>What Now?</b><br>
As more and more people wake up to the reality of collapse, it is
absolutely crucial that we help them understand why collapse is
happening.<br>
<br>
The entire history of humans throughout the Holocene is
characterized by overshoot and collapse. When societies exceeded
the carrying capacities of their ecosystems, they usually either
went to war with neighboring societies or devolved into civil war.<br>
<br>
My fear is that when the economy collapses and things start to get
really bad, people will blame others. The others could be anybody:
Jews, immigrants, white people, minorities, fascists, socialists,
the patriarchy, the “woke mob”, or other nations such as Russia or
China.<br>
<br>
We must understand that collapse is not the fault of some
malignant “other.” Collapse is the inevitable result of overshoot,
and overshoot is everybody’s fault. Yes, some people are more to
blame than others, but unless you’ve lived your entire life
off-the-grid and self-sufficient, you too have contributed to
overshoot.<br>
<br>
We need to stop blaming each other and start working together. We
need to create a culture based on sustainability instead of
consumption, a culture where we care more about leaving things to
our children than acquiring things for ourselves. We need to
eliminate the idea that humans are separate from nature and
remember that we are all part of nature.<br>
<br>
Until we do these things, I fear that we will only make our
predicament worse. I’ll close with a quote from William Catton,
author of Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change:<br>
<br>
“I have tried to show the real nature of humanity’s predicament,
not because understanding its nature will enable us to escape it,
but because if we do not understand it, we shall continue to act
and react in ways that make it worse.”<br>
<br>
Thanks for reading! If you're new here, I highly recommend reading
this article which explains the human predicament: Why It's
Already Too Late To Save Civilization. If you want to start
preparing, check our list of free books and manuals and our list
of recommended supplies.<br>
<br>
If you would like to learn more about collapse, please visit the
Collapse Resources page for a huge list of blogs, documentaries,
lectures, news sites, organizations, podcasts, charts, and videos
about collapse.<br>
<br>
If you're feeling anxious or depressed, please visit the Emotional
Support page for tips on how to manage your emotions, phone
numbers and organizations where you can get help, and lists of
books, articles, and videos on coping with collapse anxiety.<br>
<br>
Thanks again, and please share this article. The more people there
are who prepare for collapse, the better chance we have saving our
species and healing our planet.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/">https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/</a>
<br>
</font>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ comment following the article from... ]</i><br>
Michael Dowd<br>
Really excellent, Alan!! As you may know, I’m a big Catton fan. I
audio recorded the entire book and posted it on Soundcloud, with
University of Illinois Press permission, of course:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/sets/william-r-catton-jr">https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/sets/william-r-catton-jr</a>
I also wrote Bill’s obituary and my wife and I created this tribute
page: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thegreatstory.org/william-catton.html">https://thegreatstory.org/william-catton.html</a><br>
I suggest you see here: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://postdoom.com/resources/">https://postdoom.com/resources/</a>
and here: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://postdoom.com/conversations/">https://postdoom.com/conversations/</a>
and then, if you’re interested, let’s schedule a “post-doom
conversation”. You’ll be in good company! 🙂<br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/">https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/</a>
<br>
</font></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - looking back at
significant moments -- archive thanks goes to D.R. Tucker]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>March 8, 2012</b></i></font> <br>
March 8, 2012: In a syndicated column, former Delaware Republican
Party official Michael Stafford notes:<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">"The far-right’s capture of the GOP
has gone largely unchallenged by more responsible voices within
the Party. Jon Huntsman, for example, was the sole presidential
candidate willing to directly confront the prevailing
[right-wing] orthodoxy on climate and evolution. Perhaps this
isn’t surprising, given the viciousness of the attacks directed
at dissenters. The passion for purging and purity, and the
primaries that resemble nothing so much as heresy trials,
highlight a critical fact about the far-right. In Conservative
Wonderland, dissent--thought crime--is the political version of
a capital offense."</font><br>
</blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://themoderatevoice.com/140941/gop-stuck-in-a-conservative-wonderland/">http://themoderatevoice.com/140941/gop-stuck-in-a-conservative-wonderland/</a></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">March 8, 2012 <br>
</font><b><font face="Calibri">GOP Stuck in a Conservative
Wonderland</font></b><br>
<font face="Calibri">by Michael Stafford</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The Republican presidential primary field has
been reduced to four candidates- Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum,
Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. Together, they are a veritable four
horsemen of the political apocalypse- a quadrilateral of doom,
despair, division, and diminished horizons. These candidates
offer nothing positive for America’s future, and are an
indictment of the political party that produced them.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The election of President Obama seems to have
pushed the far-right wing of the GOP across some sort of
political event horizon and into its own version of Wonderland.
Like Lewis Carroll’s original, this Conservative Wonderland is
home to all sorts of strange creatures- Randologists, goldbugs,
neo-Confederates, birthers, science deniers, and sundry
survivalist bunker denizens. In this magical place, it’s
perfectly reasonable to think that evolution is an unproven
theory, that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by Al Gore and
a cabal of scientists, that immigrants are a marauding criminal
horde, that the free market is omniscient and that President
Obama is a foreign-born Marxist Muslim bent on destroying
constitutional government in America. Perhaps most
paradoxically, in this topsy-turvy realm, one can claim to be a
patriot and to love the Constitution, while simultaneously
hating the federal government that same document created, as
well as the way it has been interpreted and applied by the
courts since the time of John Marshall.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Conservative Wonderland even has its own
versions of the Queen of Hearts- the doyens of the conservative
entertainment complex on radio and cable that define ideological
orthodoxy, and enforce compliance, while feeding a daily diet of
misinformation, rage, and hysteria to their audiences. “Audit
the fed!” instead of “off with her head!”- but the meaning is
rather the same.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Unsurprisingly, as the far-right has become
radicalized, it has abandoned any interest in actual governance
and embraced instead the politics of emotional gratification.
Consider, for example, the far-right’s response to Obamacare.
Everyone agrees that rising health care costs are placing
enormous strain on the economy, and on the federal budget.
Controlling them is essential to putting the nation on a sound
fiscal footing. And yet, rather than articulating its own reform
plan, the far-right’s response to Obamacare can be surmised in a
single word- repeal. Repeal, of course, is a slogan, not a
program. Repeal Obamacare, and the problems it attempted to
solve will still be with us. What, then, is the conservative
solution?</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Of course this is mere political theater;
symbolism substituting for substance. The politics of emotional
gratification does not result in progress in any policy area- it
does not lead to solutions. It is simply a series of empty
gestures strung together.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The far-right’s capture of the GOP has gone
largely unchallenged by more responsible voices within the
Party. Jon Huntsman, for example, was the sole presidential
candidate willing to directly confront the prevailing orthodoxy
on climate and evolution. Perhaps this isn’t surprising, given
the viciousness of the attacks directed at dissenters. The
passion for purging and purity, and the primaries that resemble
nothing so much as heresy trials, highlight a critical fact
about the far-right. In Conservative Wonderland, dissent-
thoughtcrime- is the political version of a capital offense.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">In the Republican Party, thought-criminals
have a name: RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). And when it’s
used, it’s always as a term of derision; as a slur.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">However, far from being the political version
of the Shirt of Nessus, the appellation RINO is a badge of
honor. Today, a RINO is a person within the GOP who refuses,
despite all the pressure, to say that two plus two equals five.
Given the insanity of Conservative Wonderland, a RINO is a
responsible Republican.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The ideological inquisitors have hounded far
too many responsible Republicans out of the GOP; intimidated too
many others into silence. We’ve been hunted to the brink of
extinction. Now, those that remain must find their voice, and
their courage. In American conservatism, thoughtcrime is life-
it is the sole hope for a better future.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The far-right would drive the GOP over a
cliff, and take America right along with it. It’s up to
responsible Republicans to take back the wheel and steer a
different course. Today, we have an opportunity to challenge the
prevailing orthodoxies and articulate an alternative vision of
conservatism- one that is forward-looking, intellectually
honest, and solutions-based. One rooted in the real world, not
Conservative Wonderland’s fantasies and hysteria.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">If we’re RINOs, then it’s time for us to turn
at bay, and charge!</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">© Copyright 2012 Michael Stafford,
distributed exclusively by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate.
His column is licensed to run on TMV in full. Michael Stafford
is a former Republican Party officer and the author of “An
Upward Calling.” Michael can be reached at <a
class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="mailto:anupwardcalling@yahoo.com">anupwardcalling@yahoo.com</a></font><br>
</p>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">03/08/2012<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">Michael Stafford: "GOP Stuck In A
Conservative Wonderland"<br>
Michael Stafford D.R. Tucker joins Betsy to interview the author
of a brilliant new column called<br>
"GOP Stuck In A Conservative Wonderland". Michael Stafford is a
Republican with some tough questions about his party's decline
into extreme distortions of the facts, most notably in
questioning the science of evolution and climate change. His
insights are especially timely and valuable as he compares the
surreality of this political moment to not so distant history.<br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/files/greenfront030712-2.mp3">https://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/files/greenfront030712-2.mp3</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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