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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>April</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 3, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Bad luck and more expensive targets ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>The US leads the world in weather
catastrophes. Here's why</b><br>
The United States is Earth's punching bag for nasty weather<br>
BySETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer<br>
April 1, 2023<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">The United States is Earth's punching
bag for nasty weather.<br>
<br>
Blame geography for the U.S. getting hit by stronger, costlier,
more varied and frequent extreme weather than anywhere on the
planet, several experts said. Two oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, the
Rocky Mountains, jutting peninsulas like Florida, clashing storm
fronts and the jet stream combine to naturally brew the nastiest
of weather.<br>
<br>
That’s only part of it. Nature dealt the United States a bad hand,
but people have made it much worse by what, where and how we
build, several experts told The Associated Press.<br>
<br>
Then add climate change, and “buckle up. More extreme events are
expected,” said Rick Spinrad, head of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.<br>
<br>
Tornadoes. Hurricanes. Flash floods. Droughts. Wildfires.
Blizzards. Ice storms. Nor’easters. Lake-effect snow. Heat waves.
Severe thunderstorms. Hail. Lightning. Atmospheric rivers.
Derechos. Dust storms. Monsoons. Bomb cyclones. And the dreaded
polar vortex...<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">It starts with “where we are on the globe,”
North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello said. “It’s truly
a little bit ... unlucky.”<br>
<br>
China may have more people, and a large land area like the United
States, but “they don't have the same kind of clash of air masses
as much as you do in the U.S. that is producing a lot of the
severe weather,” said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards
Vulnerability and Resilience Institute at the University of South
Carolina...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The U.S. is by far the king of tornadoes and
other severe storms.<br>
<br>
“It really starts with kind of two things. Number one is the Gulf
of Mexico. And number two is elevated terrain to the west,” said
Victor Gensini, a Northern Illinois University meteorology
professor.<br>
<br>
Look at Friday's deadly weather, and watch out for the next week
to see it in action: Dry air from the West goes up over the
Rockies and crashes into warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico,
and it’s all brought together along a stormy jet stream.<br>
<br>
In the West, it's a drumbeat of atmospheric rivers. In the
Atlantic, it's nor'easters in the winter, hurricanes in the summer
and sometimes a weird combination of both, like Superstorm Sandy.<br>
<br>
“It is a reality that regardless of where you are in the country,
where you call home, you’ve likely experienced a high-impact
weather event firsthand,” Spinrad said.<br>
<br>
Killer tornadoes in December 2021 that struck Kentucky illustrated
the uniqueness of the United States.<br>
<br>
They hit areas with large immigrant populations. People who fled
Central and South America, Bosnia and Africa were all victims. A
huge problem was that tornadoes really didn't happen in those
people's former homes, so they didn't know what to watch for or
what to do, or even know they had to be concerned about tornadoes,
said Joseph Trujillo Falcon, a NOAA social scientist who
investigated the aftermath.<br>
<br>
With colder air up in the Arctic and warmer air in the tropics,
the area between them — the mid-latitudes, where the United States
is — gets the most interesting weather because of how the air acts
in clashing temperatures, and that north-south temperature
gradient drives the jet stream, said Northern Illinois meteorology
professor Walker Ashley...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Then add mountain ranges that go north-south,
jutting into the winds flowing from west to east, and underneath
it all the toasty Gulf of Mexico.<br>
<br>
The Gulf injects hot, moist air underneath the often cooler, dry
air lifted by the mountains, “and that doesn't happen really
anywhere else in the world,” Gensini said.<br>
<br>
If the United States as a whole has it bad, the South has it the
worst, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall
Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological
Society.<br>
<br>
“We drew the short straw (in the South) that we literally can
experience every single type of extreme weather event,” Shepherd
said. “Including blizzards. Including wildfires, tornadoes,
floods, hurricanes. Every single type. ... There's no other place
in the United States that can say that.”<br>
<br>
Florida, North Carolina and Louisiana also stick out in the water
so are more prone to being hit by hurricanes, said Shepherd and
Dello.<br>
<br>
The South has more manufactured housing that is vulnerable to all
sorts of weather hazards, and storms are more likely to happen
there at night, Ashley said. Night storms are deadly because
people can't see them and are less likely to take cover, and they
miss warnings in their sleep.<br>
<br>
The extreme weather triggered by America’s unique geography
creates hazards. But it takes humans to turn those hazards into
disasters, Ashley and Gensini said.<br>
<br>
Just look where cities pop up in America and the rest of the
world: near water that floods, except maybe Denver, said South
Carolina's Cutter. More people are moving to areas, such as the
South, where there are more hazards.<br>
<br>
“One of the ways in which you can make your communities more
resilient is to not develop them in the most hazard-prone way or
in the most hazard-prone portion of the community,” Cutter said.
“The insistence on building up barrier islands and development on
barrier islands, particularly on the East Coast and the Gulf
Coast, knowing that that sand is going to move and having
hurricanes hit with some frequency ... seems like a colossal waste
of money.”<br>
<br>
Construction standards tend to be at the bare minimum and less
likely to survive the storms, Ashley said.<br>
<br>
“Our infrastructure is crumbling and nowhere near being
climate-resilient at all,” Shepherd said.<br>
<br>
Poverty makes it hard to prepare for and bounce back from
disasters, especially in the South, Shepherd said. That
vulnerability is an even bigger issue in other places in the
world.<br>
<br>
“Safety can be bought," Ashley said. “Those that are well-to-do
and who have resources can buy safety and will be the most
resilient when disaster strikes. ... Unfortunately that isn't all
of us.”<br>
<br>
“It’s sad that we have to live these crushing losses,” said Kim
Cobb, a Brown University professor of environment and society.
“We’re worsening our hand by not understanding the landscape of
vulnerability given the geographic hand we’ve been dealt.”<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-leads-world-weather-catastrophes-98298368">https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-leads-world-weather-catastrophes-98298368</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ true costs would mean instant transition
to clean energy - 14 min video ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>When will fuel become unaffordable?</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
7,080 views Apr 2, 2023<br>
The fuel crisis has affected all of, but it has hit the least
well-off families the hardest. The fossil fuel industry received
more than a TRILLION dollars in direct subsidies in 2022, and some
say if the impacts on the climate and environment were factored
in, that number would be nearly six times higher. But, if we take
the subsidies away, asks the fossil fuel industry, then how will
people be able to afford to heat their homes?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2676LzY9CsU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2676LzY9CsU</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ Brief video from Peter Sinclair - 90
seconds ]</i></font><br>
<b>Bill McKibben on Greenland's Changing Face</b><br>
greenmanbucket<br>
2.62K subscribers<br>
Apr 2, 2023<br>
More from my 2018 interview with Bill McKibben, in Narsarsuaq,
Greenland.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qNtK_CITXw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qNtK_CITXw</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i> [ faster times now. ..]</i><br>
<b>Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Loss Accelerating with Numerous
Amplifying Feedbacks Towards Tipping Points</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
1,472 views Mar 31, 2023<br>
In the last week or so, there have been a number of peer-reviewed
scientific papers that show the stability of the enormous ice
sheets on both Greenland and Antarctica are much less resilient
than we previously thought.<br>
<br>
In this video, I focus on Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and in the
next video I switch poles and chat about the Antarctic Ice Sheet
loss and the effects on the Global Ocean Overturning Circulation.<br>
<br>
For Greenland, we are fast approaching a tipping point whereby we
lose all the ice sheet in Southern Greenland. An Earth System
Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) that incorporates all the
known feedbacks shows that when the cumulative carbon emissions
reach 1000 GtC we lose the southern ice on Greenland. Since
cumulative human emissions to date have reached 500 GtC, it means
that we are already half way there. The study also shows that when
cumulative carbon emissions reach 2500 GtC then we lose
essentially all the Greenland ice, which results in 7 meters of
global sea level rise.<br>
<br>
We also know that the increased melt rate on the surface of
Greenland is greatly accelerating, and the meltwater is running
through crevices and cracks in the ice, running downhill between
the bottom of the ice sheet and the bedrock below, and entering
the ocean. The turbulent flow of this meltwater is eroding away
the ice at the bottom of the glacier, greatly increasing ice mass
loss. I discussed this in great detail in some Greenland videos I
published back in October and November.<br>
<br>
Finally, a third crucial paper was just published online on March
29th, 2023 that shows how there is increasingly extreme Greenland
ice sheet melting in northeast Greenland. What is happening is
that there are increasing numbers of powerful Atmospheric Rivers
(ARs) hitting the northwest of Greenland, where they cause great
summer melting there when they are rain on snow events. As these
ARs deposit their rain (at low altitudes) and snow (at high
altitudes) they cross the peak of the ice sheet and descend down
the lee side as very dry, warm (adiabatically heated) fast winds
(called foehn winds). On their way downhill across the northeast
Greenland ice sheet they cause extreme melting events that erode
away the ice extremely quickly. <br>
<br>
All of these mechanisms mean that global sea level will rise much
faster than anybody thinks (apart from me).<br>
All of these mechanisms mean that the Greenland Ice Sheet is
destabilizing, and melting much faster than anybody has expected,
apart from myself, of course (see my series of videos; Can Global
Sea Level Rise 7 meters by 2070?). <br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYY0eJt6Ano">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYY0eJt6Ano</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ rising tides and filling the bathtub ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>The UK’s first climate refugees: why more
defences may not save this village from rising sea levels</b><br>
Published: March 31, 2023...<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Fairbourne is a small village on the west coast
of Wales and is the first place in the UK to have been assigned
the long-term policy of “no active intervention” regarding its
coastal defences. That is when a decision is made not to invest in
providing or maintaining sea defences.<br>
<br>
This has led to Fairbourne’s inhabitants being described as “the
UK’s first climate change refugees” by news media...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Fairbourne is built on a low-lying floodplain.
The village lies between cliffs and a natural gravel barrier which
houses a sea wall, and is at risk from both coastal and river
flooding. As the sea level around the Welsh coast rises, the
village is at increased risk from coastal flooding...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">There are two main factors which drive global
mean sea level rise, both related to climate change. First, the
addition of freshwater to our oceans from melting glaciers and ice
sheets. And second, the expansion of ocean water as it warms up,
which is a consequence of higher atmospheric temperatures.<br>
<br>
The global mean sea level rose higher in the 20th century than in
any other century during the last 3,000 years. The rate of global
mean sea level rise in 2021 was the highest ever recorded.
Uncertainty remains in the projections of future sea level rise
but the latest estimate is that a global rise of up to
approximately 1 metre by 2100 is possible.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/the-uks-first-climate-refugees-why-more-defences-may-not-save-this-village-from-rising-sea-levels-197206">https://theconversation.com/the-uks-first-climate-refugees-why-more-defences-may-not-save-this-village-from-rising-sea-levels-197206</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ classics from Kim Stanley Robinson ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Sea-level rise: writers imagined
drowned worlds for centuries – what they tell us about the
future</b><br>
Published: January 28, 2021 <br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">And overcoming the rising seas will mean more
than adjusting to flooded coasts. Some works of fiction consider
how a rise in sea level will limit food production, as in Paolo
Bacigalupi’s The Windup Girl. Others depict the consequences of
mass migration to the remaining habitable parts of the planet, as
in EJ Swift’s The Osiris Project.<br>
<br>
These stories explore a sea-level rise as an existential threat to
human life that’s exacerbated by the paralysis and inaction of
individuals. Recent offerings of climate fiction, such as
Robinson’s New York 2140 or The Ministry for the Future go
further, and operate at the level of utopian imagination implicit
in Ballard’s earlier dystopian vision, asking: what if we do
something about it?...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-writers-imagined-drowned-worlds-for-centuries-what-they-tell-us-about-the-future-151804">https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-writers-imagined-drowned-worlds-for-centuries-what-they-tell-us-about-the-future-151804</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">--</font></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ an older lecture from 2020 -- video of
talk discussion ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <b>Adapting to Sea Level Rise: The
Science of "New York 2140" | Kim Stanley Robinson</b><br>
Long Now Foundation<br>
2,206 views May 10, 2020 THE INTERVAL AT LONG NOW<br>
Legendary science fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.kimstanleyrobinson.info/">http://www.kimstanleyrobinson.info/</a> returns to The Interval to
discuss his just released novel New York 2140. Robinson will discuss
how starting from the most up to date climate science available to
him, he derived a portrait of New York City as "super-Venice" and
the resilient civilization that inhabits it in his novel. In 02016
Robinson spoke at The Interval about the economic ideas that inform
"New York 2140": <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://theinterval.org/salon-talks/02">http://theinterval.org/salon-talks/02</a>.... He will
be joined by futurist Peter Schwartz:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://longnow.org/people/board/schwa">http://longnow.org/people/board/schwa</a>... in conversation after his
talk.<br>
<br>
Kim Stanley Robinson: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.kimstanleyrobinson.info/">http://www.kimstanleyrobinson.info/</a> is an
American novelist, widely recognized as one of the foremost living
writers of science fiction...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC7Cr8g-ru0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC7Cr8g-ru0</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>April 3, 1980</b></i></font> <br>
April 3, 1980: "The CBS Evening News with Walter Cronkite" reports
on the role coal plays in fueling global warming.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatecrocks.com/2013/01/23/1980-cronkite-on-climate/"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://climatecrocks.com/2013/01/23/1980-cronkite-on-climate/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
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