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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>April</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 8, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ danger perceiving the real world - how to know the difference
between a lie and a hallucination ]</i><br>
<b>ChatGPT is making up fake Guardian articles. Here’s how we’re
responding</b><br>
Chris Moran<br>
6 Apr 2023<br>
The risks inherent in the technology, plus the speed of its take-up,
demonstrate why it’s so vital that we keep track of it<br>
<br>
Chris Moran is the Guardian’s head of editorial innovation<br>
Why? Because it had never been written.<br>
<br>
Luckily the researcher had told us that they had carried out their
research using ChatGPT. In response to being asked about articles on
this subject, the AI had simply made some up. Its fluency, and the
vast training data it is built on, meant that the existence of the
invented piece even seemed believable to the person who absolutely
hadn’t written it.<br>
<br>
Huge amounts have been written about generative AI’s tendency to
manufacture facts and events. But this specific wrinkle – the
invention of sources – is particularly troubling for trusted news
organisations and journalists whose inclusion adds legitimacy and
weight to a persuasively written fantasy. And for readers and the
wider information ecosystem, it opens up whole new questions about
whether citations can be trusted in any way, and could well feed
conspiracy theories about the mysterious removal of articles on
sensitive issues that never existed in the first place.<br>
<br>
If this seems like an edge case, it’s important to note that
ChatGPT, from a cold start in November, registered 100 million
monthly users in January. TikTok, unquestionably a digital
phenomenon, took nine months to hit the same level. Since that point
we’ve seen Microsoft implement the same technology in Bing, putting
pressure on Google to follow suit with Bard.<br>
<br>
They are now implementing these systems into Google Workspace and
Microsoft 365, which have a 90% plus share of the market between
them. A recent study of 1,000 students in the US found that 89% have
used ChatGPT to help with a homework assignment. The technology,
with all its faults, has been normalised at incredible speed, and is
now at the heart of systems that act as the key point of discovery
and creativity for a significant portion of the world.<br>
<br>
Two days ago our archives team was contacted by a student asking
about another missing article from a named journalist. There was
again no trace of the article in our systems. The source? ChatGPT.<br>
<br>
It’s easy to get sucked into the detail on generative AI, because it
is inherently opaque. The ideas and implications, already explored
by academics across multiple disciplines, are hugely complex, the
technology is developing rapidly, and companies with huge existing
market shares are integrating it as fast as they can to gain
competitive advantages, disrupt each other and above all satisfy
shareholders.<br>
<br>
But the question for responsible news organisations is simple, and
urgent: what can this technology do right now, and how can it
benefit responsible reporting at a time when the wider information
ecosystem is already under pressure from misinformation,
polarisation and bad actors.<br>
<br>
This is the question we are currently grappling with at the
Guardian. And it’s why we haven’t yet announced a new format or
product built on generative AI. Instead, we’ve created a working
group and small engineering team to focus on learning about the
technology, considering the public policy and IP questions around
it, listening to academics and practitioners, talking to other
organisations, consulting and training our staff, and exploring
safely and responsibly how the technology performs when applied to
journalistic use.<br>
<br>
In doing this we have found that, along with asking how we can use
generative AI, we are reflecting more and more on what journalism is
for, and what makes it valuable. We are excited by the potential,
but our first task must be to understand it, evaluate it and decode
its potential impact on the wider world.<br>
<br>
In the next few weeks we’ll be publishing a clear and concise
explanation of how we plan to employ generative AI. In the simplest
terms, we will continue to hold ourselves to the highest
journalistic standards and remain accountable to our readers and the
world for the journalism we publish. While so much has changed in
the last six months, in this crucial respect, nothing has changed at
all.<br>
<br>
Chris Moran is the Guardian’s head of editorial innovation<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/06/ai-chatgpt-guardian-technology-risks-fake-article">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/06/ai-chatgpt-guardian-technology-risks-fake-article</a>
[ carefully inspect this URL ]<br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ addendum ]</i><br>
<b>Guardian Pick</b><br>
I do a lot of research work online and you really cannot believe how
much ChatGPT invents sources. Literal pure inventions. In one paper,
it provided 15 sources plus links. Written in the style of genuine
journals and government material including links. None of the links
it provided worked including for hard statistics it claimed to
source from official government records. Virtually every reference
it provides is a total fake. The worst part …<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/162097609">https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/162097609</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Baseball future must include more domed
stadiums ( that's domed, not doomed) ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>Going, going, gone: Study says
climate change juicing homers</b><br>
Seth Borenstein<br>
Seth is a science writer who covers climate change and other
sciences.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="mailto:sborenstein@ap.org">sborenstein@ap.org</a><br>
By SETH BORENSTEIN<br>
April, 7, 2023<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b">https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b</a><br>
Climate change is making major league sluggers into even hotter
hitters, sending an extra 50 or so home runs a year over the
fences, a new study found.<br>
<br>
Hotter, thinner air that allows balls to fly farther contributed a
tiny bit to a surge in home runs since 2010, according to a
statistical analysis by Dartmouth College scientists published in
Friday’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. They
analyzed 100,000 major league games and more than 200,000 balls
put into play in the last few years along with weather conditions,
stadiums and other factors.<br>
<br>
“Global warming is juicing home runs in Major League Baseball,”
said study co-author Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth climate scientist.<br>
<br>
It’s basic physics.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- - <br>
</font><font face="Calibri">“We always felt that way for years,”
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said.
“When it’s warmer, the ball travels more and they have scientific
evidence to back that up.”<br>
<br>
Homers have always varied by ballpark due to simple factors like
dimensions that are friendlier to pitchers than hitters, or vice
versa, as well as wind conditions.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">How many extra homers depends on how hot it
gets, which depends on how much greenhouse gas the world spews
from the burning of coal, oil and gas. Callahan ran different
scenarios of carbon pollution through computer simulations.<br>
<br>
In the worst-case warming trajectory – which some scientists say
the world is no longer on based on recent emissions – there would
be about 192 warming-aided homers a year by 2050 and around 467
hot home runs by the year 2100. In more moderate carbon pollution
scenarios, closer to where Earth is now tracking, there would be
about 155 warming-aided homers a year by 2050 and around 255 extra
dingers at the end of the century, Callahan said.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Because baseball has so many statistics and
analytics, such as the tracking system Statcast, trends can be
seen more easily than other effects of climate change, Mankin
said. Still, the scientists can’t point to a single homer and say
that’s a warming-aided home run. It’s a detail that can be only
seen in the more than 63,000 homers hit since 2010.<br>
<br>
Several climate scientists told The Associated Press that the
study makes perfect sense and the statistics are analyzed
properly, though they also point out factors other than climate
change are in play and likely have bigger effects.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Both Texas A&M’s Andrew Dessler and
University of Illinois’ Don Wuebbles said while the rise in home
runs is interesting, it pales next to the issues of extreme
weather and rising seas.<br>
<br>
But Callahan said it actually brings home the threat of climate
change in a unique way. Besides resulting in more home runs, a
warming climate will likely require more domed stadiums because it
will simply be too hot outside for humans in some places.<br>
<br>
“Global warming is going to reshape so many of the things that we
care about in so many pernicious and subtle ways,” Callahan said.
“And the fact that we’ll get to go to fewer baseball games played
in open air is not a civilization-ending crisis, but it is another
sign of the way that we have reshaped our lives due to our
greenhouse gas emissions.”</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b">https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ fossil fuel interests are thrilled by
this ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Wind and solar power generators wait in
yearslong lines to put clean electricity on the grid, then face
huge interconnection fees they can't afford</b><br>
APR 6 2023<br>
Catherine Clifford<br>
@CATCLIFFORD<br>
@IN/CATCLIFFORD/</font><font face="Calibri">KEY POINTS</font><br>
<blockquote> <font face="Calibri">- To connect a new source of
power to the U.S. electric grid requires energy generators to go
through an application process with a regional transmission
authority or utility.<br>
<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri">- That interconnection application
process is often yearslong and requires upgrades to the grid,
which are often so expensive that power generators have to back
out.</font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri">- The entire electric grid in the United
States has installed capacity of about 1,250 gigawatts of
power and there is currently 2,020 gigawatts of energy
capacity waiting in line to be connected...</font></p>
</blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri"><b>How does this situation get fixed?...</b><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">Building sufficient transmission to support
the energy transition is not necessarily a technical challenge
as much as it is a political one.<br>
<br>
"The type of coordination and planning that's required for this
kind of large-scale transmission — this involves maybe multiple
utilities, multiple grid operators, multiple states, cities,
counties, everything, even the feds are all involved — and that
is antithetical to the U.S. as structured as a decentralized
nation," Sweezey told CNBC.<br>
<br>
But the stakes are high.<br>
<br>
"Even with all of the work, with all this great stuff that's in
the IRA and all of the wind that is in the sails of
decarbonization in the renewable industry, if you can't address
transmission and infrastructure, then those goals aren't going
to be met," White told CNBC.<br>
<br>
"It really is the bottleneck that's preventing that from
happening."<br>
</font></p>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/06/outdated-us-energy-grid-tons-of-clean-energy-stuck-waiting-in-line.html">https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/06/outdated-us-energy-grid-tons-of-clean-energy-stuck-waiting-in-line.html</a><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ new Turbulence ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <b>Airline passengers could be in for a
rougher ride, thanks to climate change</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> April 6, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> By Scott Neuman</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
<font face="Calibri">In March, Ingrid Weisse, her husband and two
young sons were aboard Alaska Airlines 889 from Portland, Ore., on
a flight home to Hawaii when the Boeing 737 began buffeting so
fiercely that it felt as if the plane would shake itself apart.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> "It got really, really violent," says Weisse.
There was lots of screaming in the cabin. A flight attendant was
hit by an ice bucket that became a projectile. So many people got
sick from the sudden changes in altitude that flight attendants
had to hand out more vomit bags, she says. Midway through the
approximately 45-minute ordeal, one frightened passenger yelled
out, "Please tell us this is normal!"</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> For Weisse and her family — all frequent
flyers — it was like nothing they had ever experienced. Clearly
the passengers aboard their flight were rattled, but so were the
flight attendants. Before disembarking in Honolulu, one of them
confided to Weisse that it was the worst turbulence she'd seen in
23 years on the job...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">"Since satellites began observing in 1979, the
amount of wind shear has grown by 15%" in the jet stream, he says,
referring to a study he co-authored in 2019.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> In a follow-up study using climate model
simulations, Williams and colleagues predicted that clear-air
turbulence in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
could triple in the next three to six decades, depending on future
greenhouse emissions.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> A separate 2020 study by a group of
China-based scientists points to increased temperatures in the
upper atmosphere contributing to "a profound impact on the wind
shear and turbulence in mid-latitudes."...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Flight attendants experience the most
injuries</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Although it is almost unheard of for
turbulence to cause a crash, such events do stress a plane's
airframe, says Ryan Pettit, an associate technical fellow and
senior controls engineer for Boeing.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Really jarring turbulence "can impart pretty
big loads on the airplane," he says. However, "the design
standards of modern aircraft are really high."</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Nevertheless, the National Transportation
Safety Board has said that turbulence causes the most common types
of accidents aboard aircraft. From 2009 to 2022, the National
Transportation Safety Board tallied 163 "serious injuries"
resulting from turbulence. The types of injuries tracked include
major fractures, serious burns, internal bleeding or any other
injury requiring two or more days of hospitalization. Flight crews
incurred 80% of all such injuries, the NTSB notes...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/06/1166993992/turbulence-climate-change"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.npr.org/2023/04/06/1166993992/turbulence-climate-change</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">. .</font> <br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ New website may be useful to frequent
flyers ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Welcome to Turbulence Forecast</b><br>
Turbulence Forecast offers the most accurate HD automated
turbulence forecast maps, custom to your flights, so you can
easily follow along as you fly and anticipate areas of turbulence.
We also offer forecasts by email, written by our in house experts,
including the founder of this site, when you need a human touch.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/</a><br>
</font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Dave Roberts from Volts ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>What's going on with biofuels?</b><br>
A conversation with Dan Lashof of the World Resources Institute.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">APR 7 <br>
</font><font face="Calibri">My fellow olds will recall that, back in
the 2000s, biofuels were an extremely big deal in the clean-energy
world, one of a tiny handful of decarbonization solutions that
seemed viable. Biofuels — and the many advanced versions thereof
allegedly on the horizon — dominated discussions of climate change
policy.<br>
<br>
Much has changed since then. Principally, it has become clear that
electrification is the cheapest path to decarbonization for most
sectors, including the transportation sector. The Biden
administration has explicitly put electrification at the center of
its transportation decarbonization strategy.<br>
<br>
Biofuels, in the meantime, have gone exactly nowhere. Advanced
biofuels remain almost entirely notional, old-fashioned corn
ethanol remains as wasteful as ever, and new scientific evidence
suggests that the carbon costs of biofuels are much larger than
previously appreciated.<br>
<br>
It's not clear if anyone has told the EPA. For the first time in
15 years, the agency is on the verge of updating biofuels
production mandates first established by the Energy Independence
and Security Act of 2007, and its proposed standards do not appear
cognizant of these recent developments, or of the administration's
larger transportation strategy.<br>
<br>
To discuss the latest developments in biofuels and the EPA's
puzzling blind spot, I talked to Dan Lashof, director of the World
Resources Institute. We discussed how biofuels have developed
since the early 2000s, the lack of progress in advanced biofuels,
and the stakes of EPA's coming decisions...<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-going-on-with-biofuels?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=193024&post_id=108097380&utm_medium=email#details">https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-going-on-with-biofuels?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=193024&post_id=108097380&utm_medium=email#details</a><br>
</font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">[ WISPA ]<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOi05zDO4yw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOi05zDO4yw</a><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - looking back at moments
of potential change ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri"><font size="+2"><i><b>April
8, 2003</b></i></font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">April 8, 2003: In the New York Times, climate
scientist Michael Oppenheimer declares: "The threat of global
warming, first raised in 1896, has outlived many foreign policy
crises. Our failure to deal with it is starting to bear a bitter
harvest not only in rising seas and intensified rainstorms, but
also in disruption of long-standing alliances, and interference
with other foreign policy objectives. It is well past time for
U.S. leaders to put the climate problem at the center of America's
domestic and international agendas."</font><br>
<blockquote>Opinion<br>
<b>After Iraq : Declare war on global warming</b><br>
By Michael Oppenheimer, International Herald Tribune<br>
April 8, 2003<br>
<br>
With his rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in
2001, President George W. Bush inadvertently caused an upheaval in
international relations. Environmental issues had been long
regarded as the poor stepchild of the foreign policy arena. But as
recent remarks by Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain and the
United Nations arms inspector Hans Blix made clear, the global
warming issue, and particularly America's handling of it, has
become a central geopolitical concern.<br>
<br>
Speaking at a delicate moment in the Iraq crisis, Blair contrasted
the current situation with "issues that affect us over time. They
are just as devastating in their potential impact" as weapons of
mass destruction and terrorism, "some more so, but they require
reflection and strategy geared to the long-term, often straddling
many years and many governments. Within this category are the
issues of global poverty, relations between the Muslim world and
the West, environmental degradation, most particularly climate
change."<br>
<br>
Challenging U.S. claims that the Kyoto Protocol is too costly,
Blair declared that "it is clear Kyoto is not radical enough" and
committed Britain to cutting its emissions of global warming gases
by 60 percent by 2050. This goes far beyond the Kyoto Protocol's 5
percent reduction mandated for developed countries by 2012.<br>
<br>
Recently, Blix chimed in by commenting, "I'm more worried about
global warming than I am about any major military conflict."<br>
<br>
Blair's speech served the obvious need to buttress his standing
with a British public that is disturbed over his unwavering
support of America's Iraq policy. By opposing the United States
and laying claim to leadership of the dozens of countries that are
working to bring the Kyoto Protocol into force, Blair clearly
intended to counteract the charge that he is subservient to Bush.
That an environmental issue could be deployed in this way is
itself notable.<br>
<br>
Blair's remarks serve a broader purpose, however. They are a
reminder of how severely the U.S. rejection of the Kyoto Protocol
and other accords has distorted its relations with erstwhile
allies, preparing the ground for rancor over Iraq by depleting a
decades-old stock of trans-Atlantic goodwill.<br>
<br>
Blair's statement that "the world is in danger of polarizing
around two different agendas" serves as a warning to Bush that his
emphasis on near-term security concerns attends to just half the
equation of human well-being. Global stability depends equally on
the United States stepping up to the plate on global warming and
other long-term issues.<br>
<br>
For environmentalists who have pressed the foreign policy
establishment for 20 years to take their concerns seriously, this
welcome juxtaposition of global environment and international
security brings along a touch of irony. In 1989, Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher of Britain underwent a conversion experience on
the environment, and called for an international treaty on climate
change. Three years later, her leadership was an important factor
in convincing a reluctant President George H.W. Bush to sign the
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parent document of
the Kyoto Protocol. The U.S. Senate ratified that agreement a few
months later.<br>
<br>
The Cold War had ended, and the environment seemed about to get
its turn on the international agenda because matters considered
weightier by the foreign policy establishment had been cleared off
the table. To some, it was the "end of history" but unfortunately,
not the beginning of continuing attention to global warming and
related issues by high-level officials in the United States.<br>
<br>
One reason the Kyoto Protocol fell afoul of the U.S. government,
and one reason the Bush administration fell afoul of Europe in its
hamhanded rejection of the protocol, was a failure in Washington
to understand the emerging importance of the climate issue to
international relations now, as well as to global stability in the
future.<br>
<br>
The situation could worsen. The Kyoto Protocol appears likely to
come into force this year if, as expected, Russia ratifies it. As
Europe, Japan and others implement cuts in emissions, the question
of how to treat the United States, should it continue to abstain,
could point in nasty directions, such as trade sanctions on
products like cars, airplanes and computers whose manufacture
causes emissions of global warming gases. Earlier, sanctions would
have been out of the question. If the current trans-Atlantic
alienation persists, one cannot exclude the possibility that
Europe eventually will turn to such an approach.<br>
<br>
The threat of global warming, first raised in 1896, has outlived
many foreign policy crises. Our failure to deal with it is
starting to bear a bitter harvest not only in rising seas and
intensified rainstorms, but also in disruption of long-standing
alliances, and interference with other foreign policy objectives.
It is well past time for U.S. leaders to put the climate problem
at the center of America's domestic and international agendas.<br>
<br>
The writer is a professor of geosciences and international affairs
at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs,
Princeton University.<br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/08/opinion/08iht-edoppen_ed3_.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/08/opinion/08iht-edoppen_ed3_.html</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font>
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