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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>April</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 30, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ El Niño -- coming heat nicely explained in video 12 min ]</i><br>
<b>This one could be a monster!</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
Apr 30, 2023<br>
After three years of La Niña in the South Pacific supressing the
effects of global warming, the ENSO system is now turning towards El
Niño conditions, which do the exact opposite. According to the
worlds meteorological agencies, this El Niño is shaping up to become
a potential record breaker – and not in a good way. So, what's
happening and what can we expect?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwdxffEzQ9I">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwdxffEzQ9I</a><br>
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<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri"><i>[ what risk,
what if? Or preparing for what is possible ] </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Wildfires in Anchorage? Climate change
sparks disaster fears</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Research on a flat spot for air evacuations</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">ByMARK THIESSEN Associated Press</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">April 29, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Research on a flat spot
for air evacuations. Talk of old-style civil defense sirens to
warn of fast-moving wildfires. Hundreds of urban firefighters
training in wildland firefighting techniques while snow still
blankets the ground.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">This is the new reality in Alaska's largest
city, where a recent series of wildfires near Anchorage and the
hottest day on record have sparked fears that a warming climate
could soon mean serious, untenable blazes in urban areas — just
like in the rest of the drought-plagued American West.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The risk is particularly high in the city's
burgeoning Anchorage Hillside neighborhood, where multi-million
dollar homes have pushed further and further up steep slopes and
to the forest's edge. Making the challenge even greater is that
many of these areas on the Hillside — home to about 35,000 people
— have but one road in and out, meaning that fleeing residents
could clog a roadway or be cut off from reaching Anchorage at all.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The prospect of a major wildfire there keeps
Anchorage Fire Chief Doug Schrage awake at night when conditions
are hot and dry.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">“I’ve characterized this as probably the single
largest threat to the municipality of Anchorage,” he said...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Since 1950, there have been 14 years in which
more than 4,687 square miles (12,139 square kilometers) — the
equivalent of 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) — have burned
during Alaska's short but intense fire season. Half of those fire
seasons have occurred since 2002, including the worst year on
record — 2004 — when over 10,156 square miles (26,304 square
kilometers) burned.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">For now, both the city and Schrage's fire
department are focused on keeping things under control —
implementing as many preventative measures as possible.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The city department has removed evergreen trees
and reduced brush in strips of 100 feet (30 meters) next to
neighborhoods to help contain any future fires and Anchorage has
cleared trees and other hazards in parks and along greenbelts.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Firefighters have also conducted inspections at
people's homes to identify fire hazards such as firewood kept too
close to their homes or too much vegetation on their property —
all in hopes of preserving homes, livelihoods and the community in
a time of growing climate uncertainty.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wildfires-anchorage-climate-change-sparks-disaster-fears-98966085">https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wildfires-anchorage-climate-change-sparks-disaster-fears-98966085</a></font><br>
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<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ getting ready for demonstrations ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri"><b>German police
union boss calls for crackdown on growing climate protests</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Union leader wants more preventive detention of
activists across country to stop disruption</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Anger has been heightened over accusations that
the blockades hold up emergency vehicles. During this week’s
Berlin protests, the fire brigade said 15 of its vehicles had been
held up in one day, seven of them on their way to an emergency.<br>
<br>
Letzte Generation insists it always leaves space for emergency
vehicles. It has said membership and general support for the group
has only increased the longer it has been protesting.<br>
<br>
Carla Hindrichs, a spokesperson for the group, said: “I don’t want
to stick myself to roads. I’m not doing it for fun but because we
can see from examples in history that disruptive, nonviolent
action can be the most effective type of action. We are like a
fire alarm, which is annoying but necessary.”</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/27/german-police-call-for-tougher-response-to-growing-climate-protests-letzte-generation">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/27/german-police-call-for-tougher-response-to-growing-climate-protests-letzte-generation</a><br>
</font>
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<i><br>
</i><i><font face="Calibri"> [ cough, cough. Ahem... ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Gas leaf blowers and lawn mowers are
shockingly bad for the planet. Bans are beginning to spread.</b><br>
Advocates say using a commercial gas leaf blower for an hour
produces emissions equal to driving from Denver to Los Angeles.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Washington, D.C., has a much stricter ban,
barring the use of gas-powered leaf blowers by anyone within the
district as of Jan. 1, 2022, and levying $500 fines for violators,
unless they're on federal property. The D.C. ban also allows
anyone who sees or hears a gas-powered leaf blower to file a
complaint – they don't need a city inspector to witness it. <br>
<br>
Denver-area regulators are considering restrictions that primarily
target large commercial and municipal users, but provide
exemptions for homeowners. The Denver-area ban is focused on
reducing ozone pollution, which causes breathing difficulties
while also contributing to climate change.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/30/gas-leaf-blower-mower-bans-spread-us-fight-climate-change/11746893002/">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/30/gas-leaf-blower-mower-bans-spread-us-fight-climate-change/11746893002/</a><br>
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<i><font face="Calibri">[ Mother Jones ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Scientists: Critical Ocean Currents Could
Collapse Within Decades</b><br>
Antarctic ice melt will halt circulation, new research predicts,
with dire global impacts.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">It is being hailed as a sea change in
scientific understanding of the global ocean circulation system
and how it will respond as the world heats up. A doomsday scenario
involving the collapse of the circulation—previously portrayed in
both peer-reviewed research and the climate disaster movie The Day
After Tomorrow—came a lot closer in the last month. But rather
than playing out in the far North Atlantic, as previously assumed,
it now seems much more likely at the opposite end of the planet.<br>
<br>
A new analysis by Australian and American researchers, using new
and more detailed modeling of the oceans, predicts that the
long-feared turn-off of the circulation will likely occur in the
Southern Ocean, as billions of tons of ice melt on the land mass
of Antarctica. And rather than being more than a century away, as
models predict for the North Atlantic, it could happen within the
next three decades.<br>
- -<br>
Leading ocean and climate researchers not involved in the study
who were contacted for comment praised the findings. “This is a
really important paper,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer
and head of earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research in Germany. “I think the method and model
are convincing.”<br>
<br>
“It is the most original research I have seen for some time,” says
British polar researcher Andrew Shepherd of Northumbria
University, Newcastle. “I was genuinely surprised by this work,
but they have convinced me. It is agenda-setting. All the
attention has been on the North Atlantic; but I expect there will
now be a shift in attention to the Southern Ocean.”<br>
<br>
Meanwhile the long-standing concern about a shutdown of the ocean
circulation in the North Atlantic sometime in the 21th century
appears to be subsiding. A Swiss study published this month found
that, contrary to past belief, the circulation did not fail at the
end of the last ice age, suggesting, the researchers say, that it
was more stable than previously supposed, and less likely to
collapse.<br>
<br>
Taken together the two studies bring a dramatically new
perspective to the likely impact of planetary heating on ocean
circulation, which is one of the great stabilizing forces of the
planet’s climate system.<br>
- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“The physics at play is pretty simple,” says
England. “None of the steps is particularly surprising or complex.
But until our study, we did not have the circulation model … to
make confident predictions.” The slowdown itself, he says, “didn’t
surprise me. But the pace of change—to see a 40 percent slowdown
in under three decades—was definitely a surprise.”</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“This is the first time I have seen such a
compelling argument for the impact of Antarctic ice melting on the
Southern Ocean,” says Shepherd. “They have convinced me that
current rates of melting are big enough to affect ocean
circulation.”<br>
<br>
Disrupting deep-water formation might make the Southern Hemisphere
drier and the Northern Hemisphere wetter.<br>
Antarctica is by far the world’s largest repository of ice. So,
Shepherd says, “we should expect the impacts of this melting to be
far-reaching.” The paper’s authors agree. The slowing of ocean
circulation will “profoundly alter the ocean overturning of heat,
fresh water, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients, with impacts felt
throughout the global ocean for centuries to come,” concludes lead
author Qian Li, an oceanographer at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology.<br>
<br>
Marine ecologists are especially concerned about the impact of a
circulation shutdown on the cycling of nutrients in the ocean.
Currently, nutrients fall to the ocean depths as dead marine
creatures sink to the ocean floor but are brought back to the
surface by the conveyor.<br>
<br>
If there was no new deep water plunging to the ocean depths,
however, there would be nothing to bring the nutrients back to the
surface. Instead, the waters of the deep ocean would accumulate
nutrients and become stagnant, while the supply of nutrients to
sustain marine life at the surface would be drastically reduced,
says one of the paper’s co-authors, Adele Morrison of the
Australian National University. Marine ecosystems could collapse.
This would not happen instantly. It might take centuries, but once
in train could not be prevented.<br>
<br>
A shutdown would also accelerate global warming, says Rahmstorf.
“The deep-water formation sites are conduits where carbon dioxide
is brought down to the ocean abyss, where it is locked away safely
from the atmosphere for centuries [and] currently helps slow down
global warming. However, this mechanism is set to be weakened.”
The IPCC estimates that the oceans altogether capture a quarter of
our CO2 emissions, much of it through deep-water formation.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Disrupting deep-water formation in the Southern
Ocean would change global climate patterns in other ways that are
currently hard to predict. It might shift tropical rainfall
systems, says England, and perhaps make the Southern Hemisphere,
as a whole, drier and the Northern Hemisphere wetter.<br>
<br>
The Antarctic study suggests that the Southern Ocean could be
about to have its own Day After Tomorrow moment. But meanwhile,
for some scientists, concern about the risks of the original
doomsday scenario in the far North Atlantic is abating. A Swiss
study published at the start of April analyzed the climate record
of marine sediments to assess the vulnerability of the North
Atlantic deep-water formation to a breakdown. Lead author Frerk
Pöppelmeier of the University of Bern found that the circulation
“has historically been less sensitive to climate change than
thought.” In particular, the circulation did not, as once
believed, collapse 15,000 years ago, at the end of the last ice
age. It “weakened much less than assumed,” he says.<br>
<br>
Pöppelmeier didn’t say the findings give us an all-clear for
Atlantic circulation collapse. It is far from certain how relevant
his research is to the situation today. But he did conclude that
“melting of Greenland’s ice in the near future will have less of a
negative impact on the Atlantic circulation than previously
thought.”<br>
<br>
Even if emissions don’t rise as much as predicted, it is
“irrelevant” to the near-term fate of the ocean conveyor, says a
researcher.<br>
So have oceanographers been guilty of scare-mongering? Could those
involved in the Antarctic study be exaggerating the implications
of their findings?<br>
- -<br>
None of the researchers contacted by Yale Environment 360
criticized the new modeling of the impact of ice-melt in the
Southern Ocean itself. But some questioned the use in the model
projections of an unrealistic scenario for future carbon dioxide
emissions. This “business-as-usual” projection has been adopted by
the IPCC as a worst-case scenario and is widely used by
researchers. But it assumes continued big increases in global coal
burning. Mark Maslin, an Earth scientist at University College
London, says many researchers now believe this is “deeply
unlikely,” as low-carbon energy sources become ever cheaper and
governments and corporations remain under pressure to deliver
net-zero emissions by mid-century. One study published this month
predicted that carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels to
generate electricity may have peaked in 2022 and be set for a
long-term decline as renewables take over.<br>
<br>
But Rahmstorf says such optimism is ill-founded. Even if future
emissions don’t rise as much as predicted, it is “irrelevant” to
the near-term fate of the ocean conveyor, he says. The extent of
deep-water formation in the next few decades has already been
largely determined by past emissions and won’t be impacted quickly
by any recent changes. “Which scenario we follow will only start
to make a big difference beyond the 2040s,” he says. By then, the
40-percent weakening of bottom-water formation may be all but
baked in<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2023/04/research-ocean-currents-circulation-collapse-climate-impacts/">https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2023/04/research-ocean-currents-circulation-collapse-climate-impacts/</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
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<font face="Calibri"> <br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at moral acts ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>April 30, 2015</b></i></font> <br>
April 30, 2015:<br>
• The Guardian reports:<br>
<br>
"The Church of England has pulled its money out of two of the most
polluting fossil fuels as part of what it called its moral
responsibility to protect the world’s poor from the impact of
global warming.<br>
<br>
"In a move approved by the church’s board on Thursday, it divested
£12m from tar sands oil and thermal coal – the first time it has
ever imposed investment restrictions because of climate change."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/30/church-of-england-ends-investments-in-heavily-polluting-fossil-fuels?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it">http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/30/church-of-england-ends-investments-in-heavily-polluting-fossil-fuels?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it</a><br>
</font>
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