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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>May</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 28, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ Now, 423 PPM changes with seasons, but always trending UP ]<br>
</i><b> </b><b>423.28</b><b> is t</b><b>he most important number of
the climate crisis</b><b><br>
</b>Atmospheric CO2 in parts per million, 16 May 2023<br>
Source: NOAA Mauna Loa CO2<i><br>
</i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.co2.earth/monthly-co2" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.co2.earth/monthly-co2</a><i><br>
</i>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i>[ While listening to the historic audio
of the heroic Apollo 13 mission, I composed a question to ask
of AI Chat concerning our current human predicament. - I asked
about a challenge - namely to act as we did with the Apollo 13
emergency --] <br>
</i></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i> </i></font><font face="Calibri"><b>I
asked the AI Bard at Google</b></font><font face="Calibri"><i>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://bard.google.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">https://bard.google.com/</a>
</i></font><font face="Calibri"><b>to:</b></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">"Evaluate the current human
predicament of global warming risk and future climate change
destabilization dangers as defined by IPCC Scenario A
(Business-as-usual) then compare to the NASA transcript of the
Apollo 13 emergency and then use 500 words to recommend
emergency actions such that humans could survive this calamity."</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><b>The AI answered: </b><br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">The current human predicament of
global warming risk and future climate change destabilization
dangers is a serious one. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has stated that if we continue on our current
path, we will see a global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius
by the end of the century. This would have a devastating impact
on our planet, leading to more extreme weather events, rising
sea levels, and mass extinctions.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The Apollo 13 emergency was a close call, but
in the end, the astronauts were able to survive and return to
Earth safely. The key to their success was teamwork and
ingenuity. They were able to use the resources they had
available to them to make repairs and get back home.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">In order to survive the climate crisis, we
will need to use the same kind of teamwork and ingenuity. We
will need to come together as a global community and find
solutions that work for everyone. We will need to invest in
renewable energy, reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, and adapt
to the impacts of climate change that are already happening.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">It will not be easy, but it is possible. We
have the technology and the resources to make a difference. All
we need is the will to do it.</font><br>
<br>
<b><font face="Calibri">Here are some emergency actions that we
can take to survive the climate crisis:</font></b><b><br>
</b><b> </b>
<blockquote><b><font face="Calibri">-- Invest in renewable energy.
Renewable energy is the key to a clean energy future. It is
also a job creator and can help to reduce pollution.<br>
<br>
</font></b><b><font face="Calibri">-- Reduce our reliance on
fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are the main source of greenhouse
gas emissions. We need to find ways to reduce our reliance
on them and switch to cleaner sources of energy.<br>
<br>
</font></b><b><font face="Calibri">-- Adapt to the impacts of
climate change. Climate change is already having an impact
on our planet. We need to invest in adaptation measures,
such as building sea walls to protect coastal communities
from rising sea levels.<br>
<br>
</font></b><b><font face="Calibri">-- Educate ourselves and
others about climate change. The more people who understand
the problem, the more likely we are to find solutions.<br>
<br>
</font></b><b><font face="Calibri">-- Take action. We need to
take action to address climate change. We can do this by
contacting our elected officials, supporting businesses that
are taking action on climate change, and reducing our own
carbon footprint.</font></b><b><br>
</b> </blockquote>
<b> </b><b><font face="Calibri">The climate crisis is a serious
problem, but it is not insurmountable. If we work together, we
can find solutions and survive this calamity.</font></b><br>
</blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://bard.google.com" moz-do-not-send="true">https://bard.google.com</a><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i>[ Maybe wildfire smoke will reduce these
impacts from cleaner air ]</i><br>
<b>James Hansen Warns of a Short-Term Climate Shock Bringing 2
Degrees of Warming by 2050</b><br>
The famed researcher publicly released a preliminary version of
a paper-in-progress with grim predictions of short- and
long-term warming, but not all climate scientists agree with its
conclusions.<br>
By Bob Berwyn<br>
May 26, 2023<br>
A team of scientists led by former NASA climate researcher James
Hansen, who formally raised the alarm about climate change to
U.S. government leaders in his 1988 testimony to Congress, is
working on a new study that warns of a possible short-term spike
of planetary heating 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels by 2050.<br>
<br>
In an irony of climate change, the scientists said the sudden
surge of warming—especially since 2010—is driven mainly by steep
reduction of climate-cooling sulfate aerosol particles in the
past 10 to 20 years, as new regulations limited emissions from
the biggest sources, including the burning of coal and heavy
ship fuels.<br>
<br>
The draft paper has not been peer-reviewed, but Hansen, director
of the Climate Science Awareness And Solutions center at
Columbia University’s Earth Institute, posted it publicly on May
19 on a scientific discussion website, again drawing public
attention to the potential for a shock of short-term warming
that could devastate global food production and ecosystems.<br>
<br>
Hansen’s previous warning about the potential for short-term
heating due to emissions reductions was in 2021, when he said
the drop in sulfate aerosol pollution could double the rate of
global warming during the next 25 years. In his monthly climate
bulletin he explained that sulfate aerosols, cause microscopic
water droplets in the atmosphere to multiply, which brightens
clouds to reflect heat away from the Earth. The reduced amount
of sulfates in the atmosphere allows more heat from the sun to
warm ocean and land surfaces.<br>
<br>
In the discussion draft of the new paper, the authors predict
the rate of warming will double from the observed 0.18 degrees
Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2010, to at least 0.27 degrees
Celsius per decade since 2010.<br>
<br>
“Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions,
global warming will likely pierce the 1.5°C ceiling in the 2020s
and 2°C before 2050,” the authors wrote. “Impacts on people and
nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic
extremes.” The “enormity of the consequences,” they added,
requires trying to reverse global warming and cool the Earth
down to the relatively stable range of the past 12,000 years,
before carbon dioxide pollution disrupted the climate. <br>
The concentrations of climate-cooling sulfate aerosols have
decreased most sharply over oceans in the past 20 years because
of pollution-cutting rules imposed on shipping. And the new
warning in Hansen’s paper comes at a time when the average ocean
surface temperature has soared and stayed well above previous
record levels.<br>
<br>
That fact is not lost on Leon Simons, a co-author of the draft
paper, who recently wrote on Twitter: “North Atlantic is on
fire,” and went on to explain the ocean warming with a graph
showing how the overheated area overlaps with key shipping lanes
where aerosol emissions have declined.<br>
<br>
The rapid drop of aerosols is increasing Earth’s energy
imbalance so quickly that an acceleration of warming is
inevitable, said Simons, a climate researcher and board member
of the Club of Rome, a Switzerland-based nonprofit
sustainability think tank known for publishing the The Limits to
Growth report in 1972, as well as a 50-year followup report last
year.<br>
<br>
In effect, sulfate aerosol particles shielded the planet’s
surface from some of the sun’s heat for decades, and cutting
them is removing the shield, leading to a rapid warmup. Other
research showing that sulfate aerosols have also masked global
precipitation increases driven by greenhouse gases warming the
atmosphere.<br>
<br>
Like Hansen, Simons said he’s agreed to not directly discuss the
paper’s findings. But he said the publicly posted draft
“includes observational evidence for the increased rate of
warming,” adding that it “seems rather obvious” that the net
heating effect of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere “can result
in 2 degrees Celsius of warming...<br>
- -<br>
Hansen said the research team won’t answer questions directly
about the study until it has been peer reviewed. “If I do an
interview before it is accepted (and published), it seems to
give the self-appointed ‘experts’ an excuse to blackball our
paper,” he said.<br>
<br>
But in a May 25 update on his Columbia University website, he
responded to some of the initial reactions to the draft study by
writing,“There’s no time to get involved in Twitter wars.”<br>
<br>
He emphasized that he thinks the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change is downplaying some of global warming’s most
imminent risks and he elaborated on the “blackball” comment by
referring to a peer-reviewed and published 2016 paper that he
said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ignored.<br>
<br>
That paper found that the current rate of greenhouse gas
emissions would lead crucial climate-regulating Atlantic Ocean
currents to shut down, and sea level to rise several meters
within 50 to 150 years.<br>
<br>
“As yet, little has changed to get us off that path,” he wrote.
“You would not know that from the communications of the United
Nations COPs (Conferences of the Parties) and their scientific
advisory body, the IPCC.” The IPCC’s modeling approach is
useful, he said, but he warned that some of its projections seem
to assume that “a miracle will occur,” so those models need to
be checked against the real world.<br>
<br>
“Our research is focused on real world data and comparison with
models, with the hope of gaining insights about how the climate
system works and where the real world is headed,” he wrote. The
“miracle” that limits warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius in
the most hopeful IPCC scenarios is based on an “assumption of
negative emissions via power plants that burn biofuels,
capturing and sequestering the CO2.”<br>
<br>
Focusing attention on the paper before it’s reviewed is “mainly
to start the scientific discussion and get input from the
broader scientific community,” Simons added. “Such a broad paper
benefits from this, as the reviewers might be more specialized.
With Jim [Hansen], there will of course automatically be media
attention, but that’s not the goal. People need to know about
the acceleration of warming.”<br>
<br>
If the average global temperature warms 2 degrees above
pre-industrial times by 2050, it means that temperatures over
land will likely increase double that amount, by 4 degrees
Celsius, because land surfaces have less heat capacity than the
oceans, where some of the heat goes deep down and isn’t
immediately expressed as a rise of surface temperature.<br>
<br>
This year’s IPCC 6th Assessment Report shows that level of
warming rapidly increases the odds of massive, widespread
droughts that could wipe out food production in key global crop
areas at the same time, as well as severe water shortages and
fierce heat waves that would displace millions of people. The
combined physical and social impacts would destabilize some
regions and possibly stir up conflicts over food and water
supplies.<br>
<br>
The draft discussion paper posted by Hansen also explores how
much warming is locked into the system for thousands of years to
come by current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Those
long-term consequences are overlooked in climate policy
discussions that don’t look beyond 2100, climate scientists Zeke
Hausfather and Andrew Dessler wrote on May 22, in a discussion
of the new paper.<br>
<br>
“Considering that Jim Hansen’s predictions have often proven
correct, it’s important that we pay close attention to what he’s
saying,” Hausfather and Dessler wrote. ..<br>
- -<br>
“Humanity is the first species able to … measure and analyze the
incoming and outgoing energy; how the balance is changing and
what happens with the accumulating energy,” he said.
“Understanding this is a crucial first step in order to act
effectively. I believe that with a more thorough understanding
of our planet, humanity could become a beneficial force to life
on Earth, if we acquire the collective will to do so.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26052023/james-hansen-climate-change-2-degrees-2050/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26052023/james-hansen-climate-change-2-degrees-2050/</a><br>
<br>
</font><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="+2"><i><b>May 28, 2003 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">May 28, 2003: The New York Times reports on
ExxonMobil's crucial role in the climate-denial industry.</font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri"><b>Exxon Backs Groups That Question
Global Warming</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">By Jennifer 8. Lee</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">May 28, 2003</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Exxon Mobil has publicly softened its stance
toward global warming over the last year, with a pledge of $10
million in annual donations for 10 years to Stanford University
for climate research.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">At the same time, the company, the world's
largest oil and gas concern, has increased donations to
Washington-based policy groups that, like Exxon itself, question
the human role in global warming and argue that proposed
government policies to limit carbon dioxide emissions associated
with global warming are too heavy handed.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Exxon now gives more than $1 million a year
to such organizations, which include the Competitive Enterprise
Institute, Frontiers of Freedom, the George C. Marshall
Institute, the American Council for Capital Formation Center for
Policy Research and the American Legislative Exchange Council.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The organizations are modest in size but have
been outspoken in the global warming debate. Exxon has become
the single-largest corporate donor to some of the groups,
accounting for more than 10 percent of their annual budgets.
While a few of the groups say they also receive some money from
other oil companies, it is only a small fraction of what they
receive from Exxon Mobil.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">''We want to support organizations that are
trying to broaden the debate on an issue that is so important to
all of us,'' said Tom Cirigliano, a spokesman for Exxon. ''There
is this whole issue that no one should question the science of
global climate change that is ludicrous. That's the kind of
dark-ages thinking that gets you in a lot of trouble.'' He also
noted, ''These are not single-agenda groups.''</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The organizations emphasize that while their
views align with Exxon's, the company's money does not influence
their policy conclusions. Indeed, the organizations say they
have been sought out in part because of their credibility.
''They've determined that we are effective at what we do,'' said
George C. Landrith, president of Frontiers of Freedom, a
conservative group that maintains that human activities are not
responsible for global warming. He says Exxon essentially takes
the attitude, ''We like to make it possible to do more of
that.''</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Frontiers of Freedom, which has about a
$700,000 annual budget, received $230,000 from Exxon in 2002, up
from $40,000 in 2001, according to Exxon documents. But Mr.
Landrith said the growth was not as sharp as it appears because
the money is actually spread over three years.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The increase corresponds with a rising level
of public debate since the United States withdrew from the Kyoto
Protocol, some of the groups said. After President Bush rejected
the protocol, a treaty requiring nations to limit emissions of
heat-trapping gases, many corporations shifted their attention
to Washington, where the debate has centered on proposals for
domestic curbs on the emissions.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">''Firefighters' budgets go up when fires go
up,'' said Fred L. Smith, the head of the Competitive Enterprise
Institute. Myron Ebell, an analyst from the institute, spoke at
last year's Exxon shareholders' meeting, where he criticized a
renewable energy resolution proposed by a group of shareholders.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Exxon's backing of third-party groups is a
marked contrast to its more public role in the Global Climate
Coalition, an industry group formed in 1989 to challenge the
science around global warming. The group eventually disbanded
when oil and auto companies started to withdraw. As companies
were left to walk their own path, Exxon shifted money toward
independent policy groups.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">''Now it's come down to a few of these groups
to be the good foot soldiers of the corporate community on
climate change,'' said Kert Davies, a research director for
Greenpeace, which has tried to organize an international boycott
of Exxon.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Exxon's publicly disclosed documents reveal
that donations to many of these organizations increased by more
than 50 percent from 2000 to 2002. And money to the American
Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative group that works
with state legislators, has almost tripled, as the policy debate
has moved to the state level.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The gifts are minuscule compared with the
$100 million, 10-year scientific grant to Stanford, which is
establishing a research center that will focus on technologies
that could provide energy without adding to greenhouse gases
linked by scientists to global warming. Nevertheless, the
donations in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of
dollars are significant for groups with budgets ranging from
$700,000 to $4 million.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Critics say that Exxon and these groups
continue to muddle the debate even as scientific consensus has
emerged, and as much of the industry has taken a more
conciliatory stance toward the reality of global warming. As
Exxon has become isolated from its peers, it has faced
increasing pressure from shareholders and environmentalists. BP,
Shell and ChevronTexaco have developed strategies that
incorporate renewable energy, carbon trading and emissions
reductions.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Among the initiatives that Exxon's money has
helped is the Center for Science and Public Policy. The
two-month-old center is a one-man operation that brings
scientists to Capitol Hill on two issues: global warming and the
health effects of mercury.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">''We don't lobby, we educate,'' said Bob
Ferguson, head of the center, who spent 24 years working as a
Republican Congressional staff member. ''We try to be
nonpolitical and nonpartisan and nonideological.''</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/28/business/exxon-backs-groups-that-question-global-warming.html?unlocked_article_code=bZmkBCXTn0eta5-q4FMQbIrOmjMddHIHwMFbJGk1qGBGZH9YPmXK_BIJd5FtWH1CRg5XDHq6sxaDr4TRdXLtncLihv7Ii36vQ15OYVEebj_ASNBGPyTFT7CkO_7WIR3MYrCSUPOqx59LDxQ-S873_ErNlLal0WMg5OSD1ITg3t2MqNm4SmuA9cSwtffBjTNFYy_BBmt19Xbn74YCfh_y-pe6hB9u8zPwuTlhxSsYKobq_wbhjoTMohrT1sDJ46X_ThYO6sShrsdhI43OsterHkf4rszkm1TvmbOCEUhifa3FnPPWpbq2du1Jq6ajronMiWBJoqpPwMAwEtUEYT5z-mlgnQCasUULIbso9pB07L7-F0y5mrh60qug&smid=url-share"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/28/business/exxon-backs-groups-that-question-global-warming.html?unlocked_article_code=bZmkBCXTn0eta5-q4FMQbIrOmjMddHIHwMFbJGk1qGBGZH9YPmXK_BIJd5FtWH1CRg5XDHq6sxaDr4TRdXLtncLihv7Ii36vQ15OYVEebj_ASNBGPyTFT7CkO_7WIR3MYrCSUPOqx59LDxQ-S873_ErNlLal0WMg5OSD1ITg3t2MqNm4SmuA9cSwtffBjTNFYy_BBmt19Xbn74YCfh_y-pe6hB9u8zPwuTlhxSsYKobq_wbhjoTMohrT1sDJ46X_ThYO6sShrsdhI43OsterHkf4rszkm1TvmbOCEUhifa3FnPPWpbq2du1Jq6ajronMiWBJoqpPwMAwEtUEYT5z-mlgnQCasUULIbso9pB07L7-F0y5mrh60qug&smid=url-share</a></font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/28/business/exxon-backs-groups-that-question-global-warming.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/28/business/exxon-backs-groups-that-question-global-warming.html</a>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">======================================= <br>
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