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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>June</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 3, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ From Associated Press ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Earth is ‘really quite sick now’ and in
danger zone in nearly all ecological ways, study says</b><br>
By SETH BORENSTEIN<br>
May 31, 2023 <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri">- -<br>
Earth has pushed past seven out of eight scientifically
established safety limits and into “the danger zone,” not just for
an overheating planet that’s losing its natural areas, but for the
well-being of people living on it, according to a new study.<br>
<br>
The study looks not just at guardrails for the planetary ecosystem
but for the first time it includes measures of “justice,” which is
mostly about preventing harm for countries, ethnicities and
genders.<br>
<br>
The study by the international scientist group Earth Commission
published in Wednesday’s journal Nature looks at climate, air
pollution, phosphorus and nitrogen contamination of water from
fertilizer overuse, groundwater supplies, fresh surface water, the
unbuilt natural environment and the overall natural and
human-built environment. Only air pollution wasn’t quite at the
danger point globally.<br>
- -<br>
Air pollution is dangerous at local and regional levels, while
climate was beyond the harmful levels for humans in groups but not
quite past the safety guideline for the planet as a system, the
study from the Swedish group said.<br>
<br>
The study found “hotspots” of problem areas throughout Eastern
Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, parts of
Africa and much of Brazil, Mexico, China and some of the U.S. West
— much of it from climate change. About two-thirds of Earth don’t
meet the criteria for freshwater safety, scientists said as an
example.<br>
<br>
“We are in a danger zone for most of the Earth system boundaries,”
said study co-author Kristie Ebi, a professor of climate and
public health at the University of Washington.<br>
<br>
If planet Earth just got an annual checkup, similar to a person’s
physical, “our doctor would say that the Earth is really quite
sick right now and it is sick in terms of many different areas or
systems and this sickness is also affecting the people living on
Earth,” Earth Commission co-chair Joyeeta Gupta, a professor of
environment at the University of Amsterdam, said at a press
conference.<br>
<br>
It’s not a terminal diagnosis. The planet can recover if it
changes, including its use of coal, oil and natural gas and the
way it treats the land and water, the scientists said.<br>
<br>
But “we are moving in the wrong direction on basically all of
these,” said study lead author Johan Rockstrom, director of the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.<br>
<br>
“This is a compelling and provocative paper – scientifically sound
in methodology and important for identifying the dimensions in
which the planet is nearing the edge of boundaries that would
launch us into irreversible states,” Indy Burke, dean of the Yale
School of the Environment said in an email. She wasn’t part of the
study.<br>
<br>
The team of about 40 scientists created quantifiable boundaries
for each environmental category, both for what’s safe for the
planet and for the point at which it becomes harmful for groups of
people, which the researchers termed a justice issue.<br>
<br>
Rockstrom said he thinks of those points as setting up “a safety
fence” outside of which the risks become higher, but not
necessarily fatal.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The report uses the same boundary of 1.5 degree
Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial
times that international leaders agreed upon in the 2015 Paris
climate agreement. The world has so far warmed about 1.1 degrees
Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit), so it hasn’t crossed that safety
fence, Rockstrom and Gupta said, but that doesn’t mean people
aren’t being hurt.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“What we are trying to show through our paper
is that even at 1 degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) there
is a huge amount of damage taking place,” Gupta said, pointing to
tens of millions of people exposed to extreme hot temperatures.<br>
<br>
The planetary safety guardrail of 1.5 degrees hasn’t been
breached, but the “just” boundary where people are hurt of 1
degree has been.<br>
<br>
“Sustainability and justice are inseparable,” said Stanford
environmental studies chief Chris Field, who wasn’t part of the
research. He said he would want even more stringent boundaries.
“Unsafe conditions do not need to cover a large fraction of
Earth’s area to be unacceptable, especially if the unsafe
conditions are concentrated in and near poor and vulnerable
communities.”<br>
<br>
Another outside expert, Dr. Lynn Goldman, an environment health
professor and dean of George Washington University’s public health
school, said the study was “kind of bold,” but she wasn’t
optimistic that it would result in much action.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://apnews.com/article/earth-environment-climate-change-nature-sick-2dded06915af4645253f5c29abff4794">https://apnews.com/article/earth-environment-climate-change-nature-sick-2dded06915af4645253f5c29abff4794</a></font><i><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i>
<p><i><font face="Calibri">- -</font></i></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ quick, it may be too late ]<br>
</font></i><b><font face="Calibri">Climate Endgame: Exploring
catastrophic climate change scenarios</font></b><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">Abstract<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">Prudent risk management requires
consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate
change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could
anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal
collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is
a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons
to suspect that climate change could result in a global
catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme
consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience,
and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline
current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate
change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital,
articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes,
define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The
proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the
potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2)
What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass
mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies'
vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from
conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4)
How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other
global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated
catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community
to grapple with the challenge of better understanding
catastrophic climate change.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/">https://www.pnas.org/doi/</a></font><font
face="Calibri">10.1073/pnas.2108146119</font><i><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i>
<p><i><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i></p>
<p><i><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i> </p>
<i> </i><font face="Calibri"><i> [ Consider geological structures
are like an inflatable raft in a swimming pool ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b> Greenland Rises As Ice Melts</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">October 2, 2021</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Author William House <br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">It’s Called Isostatic Rebound</font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri">Greenland and Antarctica shed record amounts
of ice during the past several years, victims of a warming
planet. On a single day in the summer of 2019, Greenland lost
12.5 billion tons of ice. A 2020 study by scientists at Ohio
State University (King et al.) used four decades of satellite
data to trace Greenland’s ice-loss history. The study found that
from 2000 forward, the continent lost more ice each year than
was replaced by snow. Greenland is now the largest contributor
on the planet to sea-level rise. As the ice melts, the continent
rises.</font></p>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Terra firma provides us with a sense of
stability when we stand firmly on solid rock, but our sense of
unchanging stability is an illusion. From a geological
perspective, Earth’s surface is a shifting landscape of continents
sliding past each other and sometimes violently colliding. When
continents collide, mountains like the Himalayas rise upward
towards the heavens. Terra firma is only a fleeting moment in the
dynamic age-old dance of plate tectonics — continents are always
in motion.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Despite its solid appearance, Earth’s surface
is also mobile, flexing and bending in response to the waxing and
waning geological stresses, including glacial ice sheets. The
simplest analogy is a cork floating in a bowl of water. Press the
cork with your finger, and it submerges, but remove the weight of
your finger, and it pops back above the surface again.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The worlds thickest ice sheets are in
Antarctica, where the ice is up to three miles deep. Pressure at
the base of this ice exceeds 6,000 pounds per square inch or 432
tons per square foot. Ice has weight, and massive ice sheets press
on the underlying continent, forcing it to sink like the cork in
water.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Isostatic Rebound</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Melting ice sheets reverse the process and
reduce vertical pressure as the meltwater flows off the continent
and into the ocean. Once relieved of the weight from the overlying
ice, the continental crust rises upward in a process called
isostatic rebound. While the cork in our experiment
instantaneously popped back to its original level, continental
rebound takes thousands of years. Parts of the North American
continent are still rising as they recover from the weight of
thick ice sheets, which formed during the last ice age.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Ten thousand years ago, one of the thickest
areas of ice in North America was just south of Hudson Bay,
Canada. There, a series of ancient shorelines (strandlines) record
the isostatic rebound. A total of 185 ancient strandlines rise
like a giant staircase, each one representing a period in time
when its rock and soil were at sea level. Collectively they record
995 feet of uplift starting about 8,000 years ago. Initially, the
continent rebounded at about 33 to 39 feet each 100 years. Today
that rate is only 4.3 feet per 100 years.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Most of the northern hemisphere’s ice sheets
have disappeared since the last ice age, and the Greenland Ice
sheet remains one of the last vestiges of a cold, ice age Earth.
The ice covering Greenland began forming about three million years
ago, slowly depressing the continent.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>The Changes are Noticeable</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Anthropocene climate change is rapidly undoing
three million years of mother nature’s work. The heat from global
warming eats away at Greenland’s ice cap, melting water at its
surface and calving ice into the Atlantic Ocean at the seaward
ends of glaciers.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Dissolution of the Greenland ice sheet is a
major driver of sea-level rise. There is also work indicating that
the large volumes of freshwater accumulating in the North Atlantic
are interfering with the North Atlantic circulation system — the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This system
drives the famous Gulf Stream, which carries warm water to the
North Atlantic from the tropics, providing Europe with mild
winters from heat supplied by the Gulf Stream.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">As the ice melts, Greenland rises due to
isostatic rebound, and some evidence indicates the Earth’s crust
may be warping in other ways. A recent study analyzed satellite
data from 2003 to 2018 and detected both horizontal and vertical
crustal movement in Greenland. Interestingly, the data indicated
Greenland’s ice melt might also affect much larger areas of the
Northern Hemisphere.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Greenland rises, and continents move as
humankind’s grand experiment in climate change continues warming
the only planet we have.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://archeanweb.com/2021/10/02/greenland-rises-as-ice-melts/">https://archeanweb.com/2021/10/02/greenland-rises-as-ice-melts/</a></font><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"></font><font face="Calibri"><br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at some ignored advice from
NYT science writer Walter Sullivan ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>June 3, 1977</b></i></font> <br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"> June 3, 1977: The New York Times reports,
"To avoid accumulation in the air of sufficient carbon dioxide
to cause major climate changes, it may ultimately be necessary
to restrict the burning of coal and other fossil fuels,
according to Dr. William D. Nordhaus of the President's Council
of Economic Advisers."</font></p>
<blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri">This would exceed the fluctuations of the
last 100,000 years, deduced from analysis of ocean sediments
and cores from ice sheet drill holes, and could have serious
consequences. Dr. Nordhaus also noted that the Princeton
studies indicated a far more marked warming in the polar
??egions than near the Equator.<br>
<br>
In the long run, as noted by Dr. Broecker, this could melt
polar ice, raising sea levels enough to flood many coastal
cities and food producing areas.<br>
<br>
To limit the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the air to an
increase of 100 per cent, he suggested an escalating tax
schedule that would impose 14 cents a ton of released gas in
1980, increasing to $87.15 a ton by 2100.<br>
<br>
This would force energy consumers to shift to other sources,
such as nuclear energy, which he termed presently “the only
proven large‐scale and low‐cost alternative.” The shift from
carbon‐based fuels would not reach major proportions until
about 40 years hence.<br>
<br>
By then energy sources now at an early stage of development,
such as solar power and atomic fusion, might be able to
contribute electric power and noncarbon fuels.<br>
<br>
Since the United States contributes 10 to 20 percent of the
carbon dioxide, any solution must be international, Dr.
Nordhaus said. It will be “expensive, but not unthinkable,” he
added.<br>
</font></p>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri">
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30E15FC355D167493C1A9178DD85F438785F9">http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30E15FC355D167493C1A9178DD85F438785F9</a><br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
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