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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>June</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 8, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font>
<p><i>[ Long Term Fire Risk Outlook - maps with easy graphics ]</i><br>
<b>National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook</b><br>
The outlook identifies areas by month for the next four months
with above, below, and near normal significant fire potential.<br>
<br>
The main objectives of the National Significant Wildland Fire
Potential Outlooks are to improve information available to fire
management decision makers. These assessments are designed to
inform decision makers for proactive wildland fire management,
thus better protecting lives and property, reducing firefighting
costs and improving firefighting efficiency. <br>
The following maps represent the cumulative forecasts of the
eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National
Predictive Services Unit. <br>
<b><i>pdf </i></b><b><i>National Significant Wildland Fire
Potential Outlook</i></b><br>
<i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf">https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf</a></i><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm">https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm</a></p>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ Welcome to the future ]</i><br>
<b>The massive smoke plume choking the northeast U.S. is what
climate change looks like</b><br>
Unearthly skies and unhealthy air resulting from Canadian wildfires
may persist for days.<br>
by BOB HENSON and JEFF MASTERS<br>
JUNE 7, 2023<br>
Some of the most intense, dramatic wildfire smoke in memory swept
into the northeast United States on Tuesday, June 6, pushing
pollution levels in some cities to record highs. Millions of people
from the U.S. mid-Atlantic to southeast Canada were confronted on
Tuesday and again on Wednesday by surreal, copper-yellow skies and
shrouded horizons.<br>
Portions of five states and two Canadian provinces experienced
24-hour levels of fine particle pollution, known as PM 2.5, in the
“Unhealthy” (red) range, with even higher levels measured on an
hourly basis. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
at that level, everyone may begin to experience health effects, and
members of sensitive groups may experience more serious health
effects. Near Canada’s capital city of Ottawa, 24-hour PM 2.5 levels
were in the “Very Unhealthy” (purple) range. According to the EPA,
this level of pollution triggers a health alert, meaning everyone
may experience more serious health effects.<br>
The smoke was belching from dozens of wildfires burning across
Quebec, which has experienced its hottest, driest late spring on
record, as has much of Canada. As noted by Capital Weather Gang, New
York City, Detroit, and Toronto ranked at one point on Tuesday as
three of the 12 most polluted major cities on Earth.<br>
<br>
<i>Read: How to protect yourself from wildfire smoke -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/how-to-protect-yourself-from-wildfire-smoke/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/how-to-protect-yourself-from-wildfire-smoke/</a></i><i><br>
</i><br>
At a news conference Wednesday morning, New York City Mayor Eric
Adams said, “This is an unprecedented event in our city and New
Yorkers must take precautions. We recommend vulnerable New Yorkers
stay inside … This is not the day to train for a marathon.” He
added: “Climate change has accelerated these conditions. We must
continue to draw down emissions, improve air quality, and build
resiliency.” New York City recorded its highest daily levels of PM
2.5 pollution on record Tuesday, reaching an AQI of 174 in Queens.<br>
Conditions are predicted to be even worse in many areas on Wednesday
and Thursday, as another major plume of thick smoke works its way
southward from Quebec through the Northeast U.S. More grim news: the
broader weather pattern – with the main jet stream pushed all the
way to the Arctic by relentless, summerlike high pressure across the
heart of North America – may continue stoking widespread fire in
Canada and periodic infusions of smoke into the U.S. for days to
come...<br>
- -<br>
At 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, June 7, the worst air in the U.S. was in
Syracuse, New York, which had an hourly PM 2.5 AQI of 402 — well
into the “Hazardous” range. EPA warns that an AQI in this range will
“trigger health warnings of emergency conditions. The entire
population is even more likely to be affected by serious health
effects.” Syracuse set an all-time record on Tuesday for the highest
24-hour PM 2.5 levels, and that record will likely be broken again
today...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/the-massive-smoke-plume-choking-the-northeast-u-s-is-what-climate-change-looks-like/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/the-massive-smoke-plume-choking-the-northeast-u-s-is-what-climate-change-looks-like/</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ this is where I live ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>Northwest approaches 'peak dryness'
much sooner than expected</b><br>
Anna King<br>
KUOW STAFF<br>
June 06, 2023 <br>
</font><font face="Calibri">Things are drying out in the Northwest
sooner than normal. Both Washington state and Oregon are
approaching what's called "peak dryness."<br>
<br>
Oregon mostly recovered from severe droughts this year. Heavy rain
and snow hit many areas, and snowpack built up in the mountains.<br>
<br>
But everything’s been on a low bake since May. All the sunny days
last month have added up to warmer soils and plants drying out
more quickly. The driest part of the year usually hits in mid- or
late-summer.<br>
<br>
“We all know that fire season, you know every week we can delay
it, is a good thing," said Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state
climatologist. "That’s why we’re so concerned with how warm it’s
getting and how little precipitation we’re getting.”<br>
<br>
Washington is starting to feel the parch, too. In the Yakima River
Basin, some junior-water-rights farmers will be restricted on
their irrigation water this year....<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The National Interagency Coordination Center
says the chance for significant wildfires in central and eastern
Washington is now above normal. It also says that above-normal
outlook will extend to nearly the entire state next month.<br>
<br>
Most of Western Washington is currently dealing with an elevated
fire risk. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning
Tuesday for the western slopes of the Cascades, because of the
breezy conditions, low humidity levels, and warming temperatures.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://kuow.org/stories/washington-oregon-northwest-dry-dryness-2023">https://kuow.org/stories/washington-oregon-northwest-dry-dryness-2023</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Sarcastic cartoon humor ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>What even is El Niño? To be honest nobody
really understands or cares any more</b><br>
First Dog on the Moon<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/05/what-even-is-el-nino-to-be-honest-nobody-really-understands-or-cares-any-more">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/05/what-even-is-el-nino-to-be-honest-nobody-really-understands-or-cares-any-more</a><br>
</font> <br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ some lessons for us all -- animation and a transcript ]</i><br>
<b>How to stay calm under pressure</b><br>
6,597,320 views | Noa Kageyama and Pen-Pen Chen • TED-Ed<br>
<br>
Your favorite athlete closes in for a win; the crowd holds its
breath, and at the crucial moment ... she misses the shot. That
competitor just experienced the phenomenon known as "choking," where
despite months, even years, of practice, a person fails right when
it matters most. Why does this happen, and what can we do to avoid
it? Noa Kageyama and Pen-Pen Chen explain why we choke under
pressure. [Directed by Olesya Shchukina, narrated by Pen-Pen Chen,
music by Stephen LaRosa].<br>
Meet the educator<br>
Noa Kageyama<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.ted.com/talks/noa_kageyama_and_pen_pen_chen_how_to_stay_calm_under_pressure">https://www.ted.com/talks/noa_kageyama_and_pen_pen_chen_how_to_stay_calm_under_pressure</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back at a
debate between two respected MIT scientists -- Note that denier
Richard Lindzen receives yearly stipends from ExxonMobile <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmog.com/richard-lindzen/">https://www.desmog.com/richard-lindzen/</a>
]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>June 8, 1990 </b></i></font> <br>
June 8, 1990: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology hosts a
global-warming debate between climate scientist Stephen Schneider
and climate denier Dick Lindzen. Reporting on the debate the next
day, the Boston Globe notes:<br>
<br>
"A long-anticipated showdown at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology yesterday between two prominent voices in the
global-warming debate brought little agreement about the
reliability of current predictions for the rate and magnitude of
climate change. But despite the seriousness of the topic, the
event did provide a theatrical and sometimes humorous presentation
of the arguments on either side.<br>
<br>
"Underscoring the range of scientific opinion on the issue, the
organizers put MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen on one side and
climate researcher Stephen Schneider of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research on the other side of a table divided down the
middle. Schneider, who believes there is a better-than-even chance
of 'unprecedentedly fast climate change' in the next century, sat
at the red end in front of a palm tree, while Lindzen, one the
most vocal skeptics, commanded the blue extreme before a scraggly
spruce. The moderator straddled the border.<br>
<br>
"These models are made up of equations that are meant to represent
the important physical processes -- such as motion and heat
transport in the atmosphere -- that work together to create
weather and climate. Based on the work of five climate modeling
teams in the United States and Britain and forecasts of energy
use, scientists have projected that the earth's average
temperature will rise between 3 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit by the
middle of the next century. While such a temperature rise might
not sound like much, climate researchers say that such a sharp
rise in global temperature in such a short time almost certainly
would cause major shifts in climate."<br>
</font>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg46585/html/CHRG-105shrg46585.htm">https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg46585/html/CHRG-105shrg46585.htm</a></p>
<p><b>A RATIONAL DISCUSSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, THE
EVIDENCE, THE RESPONSE</b><br>
Text available as: PDF (2MB)
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.congress.gov/111/chrg/CHRG-111hhrg62618/CHRG-111hhrg62618.pdf">https://www.congress.gov/111/chrg/CHRG-111hhrg62618/CHRG-111hhrg62618.pdf</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
<br>
</font>
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