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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>August 8</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ food is basic ]</i><br>
<b>The climate wrecking ball striking food supply</b><br>
Ayurella Horn-Muller<br>
Extreme weather events and our warming planet are primed to strike
commodities and the food supply like never before.<br>
<br>
Why it matters: The recent global heat wave, deadly floods across
China's grain belt and wildfires that spanned several continents
have put a spotlight on how climate change may wreak havoc on the
world's most-consumed food crops.<br>
<br>
The big picture: Studies show that future climate projections
indicate significant reductions of crop yields in high-risk regions.<br>
<br>
Crop shortages may also put upward pressure on food prices, which
emerged as a major source of pain for consumers during the current
inflation spike, and during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.<br>
Zoom out: Multiple economists told Axios that the long-term threat
of climate change to food supply and consequences for costs of major
crop commodities increasingly calls for deliberate climate
mitigation and adaptation measures.<br>
<br>
What they're saying: "The literature is pretty clear" that if the
observed increased frequency of extreme weather events continues, it
will hurt crop yields in particular, Roderick Rejesus, agricultural
economist at North Carolina State University, told Axios.<br>
<br>
"It's possible we could face unprecedented market impacts if we
don't do anything in terms of mitigation and adapting," Rejesus
said.<br>
State of play: Corn, wheat and rice together make up a major portion
of the human diet, accounting for roughly 42% of the world's food
calories.<br>
<br>
A 2022 Scientific Reports paper found that under global warming by
2°C (3.6°F) and relative to 1986–2005, corn yield will decrease
worldwide, and increase little under global warming by 1.5 °C
(2.7°F) — with the loss risk of corn by 2°C "much more serious."<br>
Reality check: The latest UN climate change report suggests that
human actions may have rendered the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target,
and possibly even its 2°C benchmark, infeasible, Axios' Andrew
Freedman reported.<br>
<br>
The UN report also found that climate change has fueled "mostly
negative" yield impacts across sub-Saharan Africa, South America,
the Caribbean, southern Asia and western and southern Europe, per
Carbon Brief.<br>
How it works: When it comes to consumer prices, what we pay for the
food we eat isn't only reflective of yields, but the whole supply
chain.<br>
<br>
Between the lines: Events that lead to supply chain disruptions —
like the recent suspension of the Black Sea grain deal, the war in
Ukraine, or severe drought in major production regions — can create
volatility and uncertainty in the global market, which can increase
commodity prices.<br>
<br>
One example: Rice production in India, the world's largest rice
exporter, has been constrained by both droughts and heavy rains. On
July 20, the Indian government banned exports on non-basmati white
rice, which is already pushing up international prices.<br>
"We should be anticipating some drastic supply shocks," Seungki Lee,
agricultural economist at Ohio State University, told Axios.<br>
Zoom in: Price hikes are more imminently visible as a result of
extreme weather events. But in the long run, when the contribution
of recent climate trends slowing down crop yield growth compounds
with lags in production growth, it can have a slow-burn effect on
consumer costs, according to Cornell economist Ariel Ortiz-Bobea.<br>
<br>
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 report projects global
agricultural and food production to continue to increase over the
next ten years, but at a slower pace of growth than the previous
decade.<br>
"Temperatures are higher, productivity is lower. The impacts are
already here. They've already happened," said Ortiz-Bobea.<br>
Of note: Don’t forget the developing El Niño, which layers onto the
impacts of climate change, and can have highly varying effects on
yields.<br>
<br>
A July report by Capital Economics projected that, when compared to
soybeans and corn, global harvests of rice and wheat are the most
at-risk during this El Niño.<br>
Meanwhile, efforts to develop climate-resilient varieties of major
crops are among leading adaptation measures pursued across the
public and private sector.<br>
<br>
Yes, but: Some experts, like Ortiz-Bobea, are skeptical of claims
that U.S. agriculture is becoming more climate-resilient.<br>
<br>
"With all the lip service that people are giving [development of
drought-tolerant crops], I don't see it in the data," said
Ortiz-Bobea, who led a 2021 study showing that global farming
productivity is 21% lower than it would be without climate change.<br>
Other emerging solutions include an increasing reliance on
less-familiar crops that require less water — like sorghum, an
ancient grain with drought-tolerant properties, Civil Eats reported.<br>
<br>
The intrigue: Sorghum could be a promising alternative to some major
crops. But it, along with grower incentives, has received much less
research attention — and that must change, according to Corey Lesk,
a Dartmouth College climate scientist and research associate.<br>
<br>
He noted the same goes for other crops more popular in developing
countries, like millet and cassava.<br>
The bottom line: "It's pretty much every summer now that a
record-breaking heatwave is happening, not just in one breadbasket,
but multiple breadbaskets around the world," Lesk said. "We are
currently heading into a climate regime that we have never seen
before."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/07/climate-commodities-food-supply">https://www.axios.com/2023/08/07/climate-commodities-food-supply</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ FEWS NET is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network ]</i><br>
<b>Monitoring & forecasting acute food insecurity</b><br>
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a leading
provider of early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity
around the world.<br>
Acute food insecurity refers to rapid-onset or short-term food
insecurity of an extent that merits emergency response. Its severity
is defined by assessing the degree to which households can meet
basic survival needs and maintain normal livelihoods. The Integrated
Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phases mapped above
represent FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely acute food
insecurity outcomes for near-term (4 months into the future) and
medium-term (8 months into the future) projection periods.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://fews.net/">https://fews.net/</a> <br>
<p>- -</p>
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<b>Search for Analysis</b><br>
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<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ The Beckisphere video is a smorgasbord
of climate news stories <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/df8qle-l2VQ">https://youtu.be/df8qle-l2VQ</a> ]</i></font><br>
<b>INDIA picks CLEAN ENERGY over COAL. FIRST nuclear plant joins US
grid in 30 YEARS! | RECAP</b><br>
Beckisphere Climate Corner<br>
Aug 7, 2023 #climatechange #cleanenergy #news<br>
If you like the work I do, please consider joining the Beckisphere
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Source list- <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.notion.so/bca7ae1e28ae4e30bce5698821737bae">https://www.notion.so/bca7ae1e28ae4e30bce5698821737bae</a><br>
<blockquote>Timestamps-<br>
00:00 Intro<br>
00:16 July was HOT<br>
01:28 AMOC collapse<br>
03:48 India energy<br>
04:56 Personal ad<br>
05:11 Canada's fossil fuel subsidies<br>
06:29 Britain's fossil fuel leases<br>
07:45 US drilling on public lands<br>
9:00 US clean energy transmission<br>
9:48 US nuclear plants<br>
11:50 Yemen oil tanker<br>
13:24 Closing notes<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df8qle-l2VQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df8qle-l2VQ</a><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<p></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Opinion ] </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri"><b>Behind All
the Talk, This Is What Big Oil Is Actually Doing</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Aug. 7, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">By Jason Bordoff</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Mr. Bordoff is the founding director of the
Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of
International and Public Affairs.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">If you’ve been listening to the world’s major
energy companies over the past few years, you probably think the
clean energy transition is well on its way. But with fossil fuel
use and emissions still rising, it is not moving nearly fast
enough to address the climate crisis.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">In June, Shell became the latest of the big oil
companies to curb plans to cut oil output, announcing that it will
no longer reduce annual oil and gas production through the end of
the decade. The company also raised its dividend, diverting money
that could be used to develop clean energy. BP’s share prices
surged this year when the company walked back its plan to reduce
oil and gas output.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The industry can point to efforts to reduce
emissions and pursue green energy technologies. But those efforts
pale in comparison with what they are doing to maintain and
enhance oil and gas production. As the International Energy Agency
put it, investment by the industry in clean fuels “is picking up”
but “remains well short of where it needs to be.”</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Overall, oil and gas companies are projected to
spend more than $500 billion this year on identifying, extracting
and producing new oil and gas supplies and even more on dividends
to return record profits to shareholders, according to the I.E.A.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The industry has spent less than 5 percent of
its production and exploration investments on low-emission energy
sources in recent years, according to the I.E.A. Indeed, the fact
that many companies (with some notable exceptions) seem to be
prioritizing dividends, share buybacks and continued fossil fuel
production over increasing their clean energy investments suggests
they are unable or unwilling to power the transition forward.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Contrary to their rhetoric, the behavior of
these companies suggests that they believe a low-carbon transition
will not occur or they won’t be as profitable if it does.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Exxon Mobil recently noted in a regulatory
filing that “it is highly unlikely that society would accept the
degradation in global standard of living required” to achieve
net-zero emissions. And while Shell claimed it was still committed
to net zero by 2050, it made clear it also believed that achieving
that goal was out of its hands: “If society is not net zero in
2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may
not meet its target.”</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">This view may be understandable, given that the
world is not on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Absent major policy changes, the I.E.A. projects that oil and gas
use will continue rising through the end of the decade and then
plateau. Rising prosperity in developing and emerging-market
nations requires enormous increases in energy use, and there are
real tensions between those aspirations and decarbonization.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">And even governments strongly committed to
slowing climate change, including the Biden administration, have
nonetheless encouraged energy companies to produce more oil to
keep gasoline prices in check.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">As temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere
this summer reach levels testing the limits of human survival,
will society accept the consequences of continued business as
usual? History suggests that climate action will proceed
“gradually and then suddenly,” as a character in Ernest
Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” says of bankruptcy. That’s what
happened in 1970 when chronic smog and polluted waters spurred one
in 10 Americans to take to the streets on the first Earth Day and
propelled the passage of America’s landmark environmental laws.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The fact that shareholders seem to prefer that
oil profits be distributed as dividends rather than reinvested
more in low-carbon energy solutions suggests they are also
skeptical about the industry’s ability to be as profitable in
clean energy. Their behavior suggests a preference for investing
in other companies they believe have a competitive advantage in
those technologies.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The world will still use oil for decades even
if it accelerates climate action — and even a net-zero world would
still use some oil and gas, with technology able to capture
emissions. Even if oil use falls, some oil companies thus seem to
be planning to be among the last producers standing.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">One problem with this is that not every company
can be the last standing. Another is that many companies are not
even taking the steps necessary to reduce emissions from their own
oil and gas operations, which today far exceed the emissions from
all of the world’s cars combined.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The seven major publicly traded oil and gas
companies, like Shell and BP, known as the supermajors, produce
only 15 percent of the world’s oil and gas, but as the I.E.A. has
noted, they have “an outsize influence on industry practices and
direction.” They also have the technological and engineering
prowess to advance clean energy.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Most of the world’s oil and gas is supplied by
companies totally or partly owned by governments, and many of them
are also falling short in their climate efforts, as evidenced last
month when several of the largest-producing countries reportedly
blocked a Group of 20 agreement to reduce fossil fuel use and
triple renewable energy by 2030. This is especially troubling
because nationally owned companies can take a longer-term view and
look beyond quarterly shareholder pressures, though they also face
demands to satisfy national budget needs.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">A successful transition will be easier to
achieve if the big energy companies play a larger part in it.
Low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen are
well suited to the oil industry’s skills and capital budgets.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Industry leaders face a stark choice: Either
match their rhetoric with actions demonstrating convincingly that
they are prepared to invest at scale in clean energy or
acknowledge that their plan is to be among the last producers and
bet on a slower transition...</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"></font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri"><b>One Comment </b><br>
Carmel Fruit Farmer<br>
Aug. 7<br>
It is futile to shame corporations for chasing profits in any
legal way possible- that is how capitalism works. Such shaming
may make an interesting article, but any positive result needs
to come from the political backlash such journalism inspires.<br>
<br>
Perhaps the most fundamental measure of a Democracy's legitimacy
lies in its ability to regulate capitalism in a way that allows
it to function sustainably., Corporations are not organized to
police themselves to serve the public good, or even support the
long term survival of homo sapiens. Short term profits are the
key for the professional survival of management. A functional
government must regulate corporations to stop them from
behaviors that are murderous of the public good. <br>
<br>
Our problem is that profits made from destroying our planet are
used to manipulate our government not to act in the long term
public interest. If we fail to correct this quickly, we have no
future.<br>
</font></blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/opinion/oil-fossil-fuels-clean-energy.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/opinion/oil-fossil-fuels-clean-energy.html</a>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Ice Science ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri"><b>Rapid Basal
Channel Growth Beneath Greenland's Longest Floating Ice Shelf</b><br>
Ash Narkevic, Bea Csatho, Toni Schenk<br>
First published: 09 June 2023<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103226">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103226</a><br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Rapid Basal Channel Growth Beneath Greenland's
Longest Floating Ice Shelf<br>
Ash Narkevic, Bea Csatho, Toni Schenk<br>
First published: 09 June 2023 <br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103226">https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103226</a></font><font
face="Calibri">Abstract</font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier (N79)
is one of the two main outlets for Greenland's largest ice
stream, the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, and is the more
stable of the two, with no calving front retreat expected in the
near future. Using a novel surface elevation reconstruction
approach combining digital elevation models and laser altimetry,
previously undetected local phenomena are identified
complicating this assessment. N79 is found to have a complex
network of basal channels that were largely stable between 1978
and 2012. Since then, an along-flow central basal channel has
been growing rapidly, likely due to increased runoff and ocean
temperatures. This incision threatens to decouple the glacier's
northwestern and southeastern halves.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Key Points</b><b><br>
</b><b>We created a novel ice surface elevation reconstruction
with annual change rates by fusing altimetry and digital
elevation models</b><b><br>
</b><b><br>
</b><b>A rapidly growing basal channel is identified near the
grounding line of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier, with
implications for stability</b><b><br>
</b><b><br>
</b><b>We believe this channel growth to be the result of warming
ocean water and increased runoff leading to more intense
meltwater plume activity</b><br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">Plain Language Summary</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier (N79) has one
of the longest floating ice tongues in Greenland and is one of
two outlets for the island's longest ice stream. While many of
Greenlands's outlet glaciers have been retreating due to climate
change, it was believed that N79 would remain relatively stable.
By combining multiple data sources, we have created an improved
reconstruction of the glacier, revealing previously overlooked
features which may threaten that stability. Most notably, a
large, rapidly growing along-flow channel was identified at the
bottom of the ice shelf near the grounding line, which threatens
to cut completely through the glacier. We attribute this
behavior to the ice bottom topography and pre-existing patterns
of stress in the ice interacting with warming ocean water and
increasing meltwater discharge, focusing the melting of the ice
tongue in specific locations.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103226">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103226</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back at a
classic discussion ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>August 8, 2012 </b></i></font> <br>
August 8, 2012: On Current TV's "Viewpoint with Eliot Spitzer,"
NASA climate scientist James Hansen discusses the risk of climate
change, and the concept of fee-and-dividend as a way to reduce
emissions.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://youtu.be/F6B6ovpWpTs">http://youtu.be/F6B6ovpWpTs</a><br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
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