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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>August 20</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ British Columbia declares emergency ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Canada wildfires: British Columbia declares
state of emergency - BBC News</b><br>
BBC News<br>
Aug 19, 2023 #Canada #BritishColumbia #Wildfires<br>
A state of emergency has been declared in Canada's western British
Columbia province, as a fast-moving wildfire threatens to destroy
more homes in the area around the city of West Kelowna.<br>
<br>
Premier David Eby warned that "the situation has evolved rapidly
and we are in for an extremely challenging situation in the days
ahead".<br>
Some 4,800 people are now under evacuation orders.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV5Pmok2Z58">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV5Pmok2Z58</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri">[ Canada hosts the big conflagrations ]<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>‘One climate disaster after another’:
North America’s long hot summer</b><br>
From Hawaii to Canada, searing heat and deadly wildfires are
raising the alarm about global warming<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F66943e97-ad61-436a-bf36-21c4d3b840ac.jpg?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=700">https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F66943e97-ad61-436a-bf36-21c4d3b840ac.jpg?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=700</a><br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ft.com/content/da0149d3-1a5f-41de-9c3b-83ad3562ac98">https://www.ft.com/content/da0149d3-1a5f-41de-9c3b-83ad3562ac98</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Special Smoke Outlook Issued for Your
Location in North America ]</i><br>
</font><b> v3.1Fire and Smoke Map</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://fire.airnow.gov/">https://fire.airnow.gov/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[</i></font><font face="Calibri"><i> BBC
offers a</i></font><font face="Calibri"><i> little atmospheric
science primer -- (cough, hack, spit and curse) ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>How Canada's wildfires are warming
the stratosphere</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">Extreme wildfires are increasing due to
rising emissions, but they also disrupt the climate in return.
Weighing up the overall impact, however, is tricker than it seems.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Apocalyptic images of wildfire devastation –
from charred homes to cities shrouded in deadly smoke – are fast
coming to embody the world's unfolding climate disaster.<br>
<br>
In Hawaii this August, the death toll is still rising after the
deadliest US wildfire in over a century ripped through Maui. In
Canada, extreme fires blazing across the country are more
widespread than at any other time on record.<br>
<br>
Research has shown that wildfires' likelihood and intensity have
already increased due to human-caused global temperature rise. But
there is still so much we don't yet understand about these
powerful phenomena. Not least, wildfires' own ability to alter and
disrupt climate systems long after their flames die out.<br>
<br>
One of the most far-reaching ways fires impact the climate is
their ability to release vast quantities of carbon stored in trees
and soils into the atmosphere. In a vicious feed-back loop, the
additional CO2 then contributes to the same long-term warming of
the planet that makes the fires themselves more likely. In 2020
alone, California's wildfires were estimated to have negated 16
years of the state's cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. Forest
regrowth may occur, the researchers suggest, but not fast enough
to help keep global warming under the 1.5C limit...<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Not all of wildfires' impacts on climate are so
long-lasting, however. Nor do all produce warming. By blocking
sunlight and attracting additional water droplets that brighten
clouds, smoke aerosols can reflect sunlight back into space,
leading to localised cooling in the lower atmosphere.<br>
<br>
This cooling effect typically only lasts until rain washes the
aerosols back to earth. Yet as wildfires increase in scale, even
these more temporary impacts are expanding their reach and
duration. Australia's 2019-2020 fire season, for instance,
produced a widespread smoke-induced cooling that may have
influenced the recent "triple dip" in the La Niña weather pattern,
research suggests.<br>
<br>
Understanding how wildfires' various impacts interact is therefore
key to understanding their overall impact on the climate – and
thus to guiding humanity's attempts to limit dangerous climate
change. <br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Super outbreaks</b><br>
Calculating the net warming or cooling effect of wildfires means
considering their impact across various time-scales and levels of
the atmosphere, from surface up. One avenue of research has thus
focused on the stratospheric reactions that take place 4-31 miles
(6-50km) up in the air.<br>
<br>
Beneath this level, the lower troposphere is warming due to rising
levels of CO2. Yet the same trend is also cooling the
stratosphere, where thinner air allows the carbon dioxide to
release its energy into space...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Once airborne, the black carbon in these
wildfire aerosols absorb heat, causing them to rise and warm the
surrounding stratosphere, says Matthias Stocker from the Wegener
Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz,
Austria.<br>
<br>
His research on large wildfires' stratospheric impact has shown
that smoke from the pyroCb super outbreak in Australia in 2019-20
caused the stratosphere to warm very strongly (by up to 10C/18F)
during the plumes' early development. Over the next few months, it
remained an average of 3.5C (6.3F) warmer, before the aerosols
sank back to earth.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Canada has this year seen by far its most
active pyroCb year over the last decade, says David A Peterson, a
meteorologist with the US Naval Research Laboratory in Washington
DC, which is attempting to create a prediction system for the
movement of pyroCb smoke, and has been building a global dataset
since 2013.<br>
<br>
"At least 133 pyroCbs have been observed in Canada since early
May, with 153 observed worldwide," he adds – more than doubling
the country's previous seasonal maximum. <br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">However, none of the many pyroCb events
observed in 2023 rival the stratospheric impact of the 2019-20
Australia super outbreak, or the 2017 Pacific Northwest event in
Canada, says Peterson. Both produced stratospheric smoke plumes
that "rival or exceed the impact from the majority of volcanic
eruptions over the past decade", he says – persisting at high
altitudes for many months.<br>
<br>
<b>Stratosphere vs troposphere</b><br>
Models clearly show that the conditions for pyroCb wildfires are
set to increase, meaning there is the potential for the effects of
such aerosols to become significant enough "to change dynamics in
the stratosphere and have consequences," Stocker says.<br>
<br>
One particular concern is that the recovery of the ozone layer,
which blocks harmful ultraviolet radiation, could be delayed – and
research has already demonstrated some negative impacts...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">However, none of the many pyroCb events
observed in 2023 rival the stratospheric impact of the 2019-20
Australia super outbreak, or the 2017 Pacific Northwest event in
Canada, says Peterson. Both produced stratospheric smoke plumes
that "rival or exceed the impact from the majority of volcanic
eruptions over the past decade", he says – persisting at high
altitudes for many months...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">"The big thing we've already learnt is that
wildfires can be important for several effects in the
stratosphere," says Stocker. "It's a big experiment. And in my
opinion, I don't want to try out the changes. Researchers see
there can already be harmful effects."<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Albedo and evaporation</b><b><br>
</b>Wildfires can also influence climate back on the ground.<br>
<br>
One mechanism involves changes to a landscapes' albedo, or ability
to reflect light. In the aftermath of a fire, charred surfaces can
reduce albedo, leading to an increase in surface warming.
Conversely, a reduced forest canopy can raise albedo by exposing
more reflective entities such as grass or snow, leading to a
cooling effect.<br>
<br>
Another process involves the evaporation of water. Thriving plants
release water from their leaves in a process known transpiration,
and water also evaporates directly from the soil and canopies. The
surrounding air is cooled as a result. But when wildfires suppress
this, warming increases.<br>
<br>
A 2019 study which investigated the interplay of these factors
found that the average surface temperature can warm for at least
five years after flames are extinguished. Reduced transpiration
was found to be the main cause of this, says Zhihua Liu, an
ecology researcher at the University of Montana and lead author of
the study.<br>
<br>
"If there are more frequent and severe fires in the future, this
land surface warming may contribute to climate warming," he adds.
"However, the interactions among climate warming, vegetation
dynamics, and fire are very complex, and yet to be fully
understood."<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>'It's a big experiment'..</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">With wildfires impacting the climate system in
so many ways, understanding the different interactions and
timescales is essential for understanding their overall impact in
the long term. "We need to understand the net outcomes because we
need to understand how fast to reduce our human CO2 emissions,"
says Stocker...<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230817-how-wildfires-push-up-temperatures-long-after-they-are-extinguished">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230817-how-wildfires-push-up-temperatures-long-after-they-are-extinguished</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Wyoming journalism and how "DTFM" just
means to "<u>D</u>o <u>T</u>he <u>F</u>-in</i> <u>M</u>ath"<i>
]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>At Current Pace, U.S. Will Eliminate
Fossil Fuels In 170 Years</b><br>
The New York Times reported this week that the United States is
“rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels.” However, at the current
pace, the U.S. will eliminate fossil fuels in 170 years.<br>
<br>
Kevin Killough<br>
August 17, 2023<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The New York Times declared this week that a
“profound shift” is taking place in America, which is “rapidly
shifting away from fossil fuels.”<br>
<br>
This, the newspaper says, is also happening in Europe and
elsewhere. <br>
<br>
From such statements, a reader might think that the share of
electricity from fossil fuels has at least halved in the past few
decades. <br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">While the article shows a lot of graphs about
the growth of renewables, it omits any mention of how much
electrical generation comes from fossil fuels. <br>
<br>
According to data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of
World Energy, the amount of electricity generation from fossil
fuels fell from nearly 73% in 1985 to just under 60% in 2022. <br>
<br>
This means the transition away from fossil fuels is happening at a
rate of 0.35% per year. <br>
<br>
While The New York Times likes to claim the country is “rapidly
shifting” away from fossil fuels, it will take, at the current
pace, more than 170 years to reach 0%. <br>
<br>
Coal Is Still King<br>
<br>
Globally, the shift is even slower. <br>
<br>
According to the World Energy Data, the amount of world generated
from fossil fuels was just under 65% in 1985. That fell to just
under 61% in 2022. <br>
<br>
The amount generated from coal was nearly 38% in 1985. It’s just
over 35% today. Natural gas rose from just under 15% in 1985 to
nearly 23% today. <br>
<br>
In that time, wind and solar rose from about 0% in 1985 to 12% in
2022, and most of that increase happened since 2005. This increase
has had little impact on the amount of electricity generated from
fossil fuels, according to the data, raising doubts the wind and
solar are replacements for fossil fuels. <br>
<br>
American Coal Council CEO Emily Arthun, who lives in Gillette,
told Cowboy State Daily that nations around the world are
embracing coal, including South Africa, India and China. <br>
<br>
“They’re building coal-fired power plants, and they’re using coal
to stand up for their economies and the wellbeing of their
people,” Arthun said. <br>
<br>
Shortsighted <br>
<br>
According to the Global Energy Monitor, since 2000, a total of
460,643 megawatts of coal-fired electrical generation has been
retired. <br>
<br>
In that time, 911,000 megawatts of coal-fired capacity was
announced, permitted or under construction. That doesn't include
the 2,095,041 megawatts of coal-fired electrical generation
operating in the world today.<br>
<br>
Almost all the coal plants being permitted or constructed are in
Asia, especially China. There are no plants permitted, planned or
being constructed in the U.S. <br>
<br>
Arthun said it’s concerning that nations that are unfriendly
toward the U.S. are ramping up their energy production, while the
U.S. is shutting down its coal capacity. <br>
<br>
At the same time, the U.S. is becoming more dependent on China for
critical minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels and wind
turbines. <br>
<br>
“To be preemptively closing our coal plants is very short sighted.
It's concerning that we may not have enough energy in the coming
years,” Arthun said. <br>
<br>
Manufacturing Demand<br>
<br>
The International Energy Agency released its annual coal market
update last month, and it also called into question the alleged
rapid transition away from fossil fuels. <br>
<br>
The report stated that coal demand for electrical generation and
steel production reached record highs in 2022. <br>
<br>
Coal mining is also up, with 398 coal mines under consideration
worldwide, representing an estimated 1.8 billion tons of coal and
1.8 billion tons of mine capacity. China and India account for
two-thirds of that. <br>
<br>
State Rep. John Bear, R-Gillette, told Cowboy State Daily the data
doesn’t surprise him. <br>
<br>
He said an increase in energy demand in the U.S. is being driven
by an increase in domestic manufacturing, as well as growing
electrification of transportation with electric vehicle adoption.
<br>
<br>
“You can add some wind and solar, but it just doesn't get you
there unless you cover practically the surface area of the
continent,” Bear said. <br>
<br>
China’s Opportunity <br>
<br>
Increases in manufacturing will also increase the demand for
primary energy. Electricity is only about 20% of the total energy
consumed globally. The rest is transportation and industry. <br>
<br>
Even when considering all energy usage, the alleged “rapid
transition” doesn’t show in the data. <br>
<br>
According to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World
Energy, primary energy consumption in the U.S. from fossil fuels
peaked out at a little more than 23,500 terawatt hours of energy.
Last year, it was just under 21,600 terawatt hours. <br>
<br>
Bear agrees that China ramping up its energy production from
fossil fuels, while the U.S. is trying to shut down as much as
possible, is concerning. <br>
<br>
”Can you blame them? We're tying our own hands behind our backs,
creating an economic opportunity for them. They're just taking
advantage of it and laughing all the way all the way to the bank,”
Bear said. <br>
<br>
Kevin Killough can be reached at <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Kevin@cowboystatedaily.com">Kevin@cowboystatedaily.com</a>.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/08/17/at-current-pace-u-s-will-eliminate-fossil-fuels-in-170-years/">https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/08/17/at-current-pace-u-s-will-eliminate-fossil-fuels-in-170-years/</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
<i>[ The news archive - looking back at video of climate science
fundamentals in the year 2013]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>August 20, 2013</b></i></font> <br>
August 20, 2013: </font><font face="Calibri">Al Jazeera America
debuts, featuring a critically-acclaimed discussion of climate
change featuring climate scientists Heidi Cullen and Michael Mann.</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">Al Jazeera America's 30 minutes of climate
coverage (about 24 minutes not including commercial breaks)
represented nearly half of what was seen on all network nightly
news programs in 2012, and more than what was featured by CNN's
Erin Burnett OutFront and Anderson Cooper 360 and Fox News' The
O'Reilly Factor and Hannity combined in the past four and a half
months:<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">Al Jazeera America's 30 minutes of climate
coverage (about 24 minutes not including commercial breaks)
represented nearly half of what was seen on all network nightly
news programs in 2012, and more than what was featured by CNN's
Erin Burnett OutFront and Anderson Cooper 360 and Fox News' The
O'Reilly Factor and Hannity combined in the past four and a half
months:<br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/21/what-al-jazeera-america-didnt-say-about-climate/195510">http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/21/what-al-jazeera-america-didnt-say-about-climate/195510</a><br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
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