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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>August </b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>26, 2023</b></i></font><br>
<p>
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<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <i>[ Know that there is MORE heat risk
now ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri"><b>Risk of
heat-related deaths has ‘increased rapidly’ over past 20 years</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">24 August 2023 </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Spikes in temperature-related deaths during
extreme summer heatwaves “will eventually become commonplace” if
societies do not adapt to the dangerous impacts of extreme heat,
new research finds.<br>
- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The risk of heat-related deaths during
extreme summer heat has already “increased rapidly” over the
past 20 years, the paper finds. It warns that without “urgent”
adaptation measures, once-extreme levels of heat-related
mortality could become “normal” as global temperatures rise.<br>
<br>
“Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation
and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives,” the authors
say.<br>
<br>
The lead author warns that the worst impacts of extreme heat are
felt by the world’s poorest, who have the lowest ability to
adapt to the damaging impacts of high temperatures and have
contributed the least to global emissions...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/risk-of-heat-related-deaths-has-increased-rapidly-over-past-20-years/">https://www.carbonbrief.org/risk-of-heat-related-deaths-has-increased-rapidly-over-past-20-years/</a><br>
</font>
</p>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Original article in the journal nature
communications ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Rapid increase in the risk of
heat-related mortality</b><br>
Published: 24 August 2023<br>
Samuel Lüthi,...<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">Abstract</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Heat-related mortality has been identified as
one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health.
Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases
with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much
climate change will increase the frequency and severity of
extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this
probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality
relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate
model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future
highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat
mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of
2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the
climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further
shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where
heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually
become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings
highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation
to reduce impacts on human lives.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ "An AMOC collapse would be a massive,
planetary-scale disaster." from RealClimate.org ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>The AMOC: tipping this century, or
not?</b><br>
25 AUG 2023 BY STEFAN</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">A few weeks ago, a study by Copenhagen
University researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen concluded that
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely
to pass a tipping point already this century, most probably around
mid-century. Given the catastrophic consequences of an AMOC
breakdown, the study made quite a few headlines but also met some
skepticism. Now that the dust has settled, here some thoughts on
the criticisms that have been raised about this study.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>What does it all mean?</b><br>
<br>
An AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster.
Some of the consequences: Cooling and increased storminess in
northwestern Europe, major additional sea level rise especially
along the American Atlantic coast, a southward shift of tropical
rainfall belts (causing drought in some regions and flooding in
others), reduced ocean carbon dioxide uptake, greatly reduced
oxygen supply to the deep ocean, likely ecosystem collapse in the
northern Atlantic, and others. Check out the OECD report Climate
Tipping Points which is well worth reading, and the maps below -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/images/OECD-AMOC-collapse.png">https://www.realclimate.org/images/OECD-AMOC-collapse.png</a>. You
really want to prevent this from happening.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">We know from paleoclimatic data that there have
been a number of drastic, rapid climate changes with focal point
in the North Atlantic due to abrupt AMOC changes, apparently after
the AMOC passed a tipping point. They are known as Heinrich events
and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, see my review in Nature (pdf
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/insight_review.pdf">https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/insight_review.pdf</a>
).<br>
<br>
<b>The point: it is a risk we should keep to an absolute minimum.</b><br>
<br>
In other words: we are talking about risk analysis and disaster
prevention. This is not about being 100% sure that the AMOC will
pass its tipping point this century; it is that we’d like to be
100% sure that it won’t. Even if there were just (say) a 40%
chance that the Ditlevsen study is correct in the tipping point
being reached between 2025 and 2095, that’s a major change to the
previous IPCC assessment that the risk is less than 10%. Even a
<10% chance as of IPCC (for which there is only “medium
confidence” that it’s so small) is in my view a massive concern.
That concern has increased greatly with the Ditlevsen study – that
is the point, and not whether it’s 100% correct and certain.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Would you live in a village below a dammed lake
if you’re told there is a one in ten chance that one day the dam
will break and much of the village will be washed away? Would you
say: “Not to worry, that’s 90 % chance it won’t happen?” Or would
you demand action by the authorities to reduce the risk? What if a
new study appears, experienced scientists, reputable journal, that
says it is nearly certain that the dam will break, the question is
only when? Would you demand immediate attention to mitigate this
danger, or would you say: “Oh well, some have questioned whether
the assumptions of this study are entirely correct. Let’s just
assume it is wrong”?<br>
<br>
For the AMOC (and other climate tipping points), the only action
we can take to minimise the risk is to get out of fossil fuels and
stop deforestation as fast as possible. One major assumption of
the Ditlevsen study is that global warming continues as in past
decades. That is in our hands – or more precisely, that of our
governments and powerful corporations. In 2022, the G20
governments alone subsidised fossil fuel use with 1.4 trillion
dollars, up by 475% above the previous year. They aren’t trying to
end fossil fuels.<br>
<br>
Yet, as soon as we reach zero emissions, global warming will stop
within years, and the sooner this happens the smaller the risk of
passing tipping points. It also minimises lots of other losses,
damages and human suffering from “regular” global warming impacts,
which are already happening all around us even without passing
major climate tipping points.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/</a></b></font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">More Links:</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">For more on this, see my long TwiX thread
with many images from relevant studies.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1684903347118051328">https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1684903347118051328</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to
the AMOC?
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">If you doubt that the AMOC has weakened, read
this
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/if-you-doubt-that-the-amoc-has-weakened-read-this/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/if-you-doubt-that-the-amoc-has-weakened-read-this/</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">AMOC slowdown: Connecting the dots
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">And for even more, just enter “AMOC” into the
search field of this blog!</font><br>
</blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/</a></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at Dick Cheney's political
malfeasance ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>August 26, 2001</b></i></font> <br>
August 26, 2001: The Los Angeles Times reports:<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">"Throughout February and March,
executives representing electricity, coal, natural gas and
nuclear interests paraded quietly in small groups to a building
in the White House compound, where the new administration's
energy policy was being written.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">"Some firms sent emissaries more than once.
Enron Corp., which trades electricity and natural gas, once got
three top officials into a private session with Vice President
Dick Cheney, who headed the energy task force. Cheney did 'a lot
of listening,' according to a company spokesman.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">"Many of the executives at the White House
meetings were generous donors to the Republican Party, and some
of their key lobbyists were freshly hired from the Bush
presidential campaign. They found a receptive task force. Among
its ranks were three former energy industry executives and
consultants. The task force also included a Bush agency head who
was involved in the sensitive discussions while his wife took in
thousands of dollars in fees from three electricity producers.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">"The final report, issued May 16, boosted the
nation's energy industries. It called for additional coal
production, and five days later the world's largest coal
company, Peabody Energy, issued a public stock offering, raising
about $60 million more than expected. While Peabody was
preparing to go public, its chief executive and vice president
participated in a March 1 meeting with Cheney."</font><br>
</blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://articles.latimes.com/2001/aug/26/news/mn-38530">http://articles.latimes.com/2001/aug/26/news/mn-38530</a>
<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">see also
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/08/remembering-why-americans-loathe-dick-cheney/244306/">https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/08/remembering-why-americans-loathe-dick-cheney/244306/</a></font><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font>
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