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<p><font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>December 1</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>, 2023</b></i></font></p>
<i>[ UN statement opening climate talks ]<br>
</i>30 November 2023<br>
<b>Secretary-General's video message to the WMO “State of the Global
Climate 2023” Report launch</b><br>
Download the video:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/downloads2.unmultimedia.org/public/video/evergreen/MSG+SG+/SG+17+Nov+23/3144942_MSG+SG+WMO+STATE+OF+CLIMATE+REPORT+17+NOV+23.mp4">https://s3.amazonaws.com/downloads2.unmultimedia.org/public/video/evergreen/MSG+SG+/SG+17+Nov+23/3144942_MSG+SG+WMO+STATE+OF+CLIMATE+REPORT+17+NOV+23.mp4</a><br>
<br>
<b>The State of the Global Climate in 2023 is stark and clear:</b><br>
<br>
Things are moving so fast that a full month before the end of the
year, we can already declare that 2023 is the hottest year recorded
in human history.<br>
<br>
Sea levels have reached record highs – and the rise is accelerating;<br>
<br>
Sea surface temperatures have reached a record high;<br>
<br>
And sea ice levels in Antarctica have hit a record low. <br>
<br>
Swiss glaciers have lost ten per cent of their volume in the past
two years.<br>
<br>
I have just come back from Nepal, where I was shocked at the speed
of receding glaciers and the dramatic consequences.<br>
<br>
We are living through climate collapse in real time – and the impact
is devastating.<br>
<br>
This year has seen communities around the world pounded by fires,
floods, and searing temperatures.<br>
<br>
Record global heating should send shivers down the spines of world
leaders.<br>
<br>
And it should trigger them to act.<br>
<br>
We have the roadmap to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5
degrees Celsius and avoid the worst of climate chaos. <br>
<br>
But we need leaders to fire the starting gun at COP28 on a race to
keep the 1.5 degree limit alive:<br>
<br>
By setting clear expectations for the next round of climate action
plans and committing to the partnerships and finance to make them
possible;<br>
<br>
By committing to triple renewables and double energy efficiency;<br>
<br>
And committing to phase out fossil fuels, with a clear time frame
aligned to the 1.5-degree limit. <br>
<br>
We must also go further and faster in protecting people from climate
chaos.<br>
<br>
Every person on Earth must be protected by an early warning system
by 2027, by putting in place the action plan we launched last year.<br>
<br>
And every vulnerable developing country should have the support they
need to develop and implement adaptation investment plan by 2025. <br>
<br>
Leaders must get the Loss and Damage Fund off to a flying start,
with generous, early contributions.<br>
<br>
Developed countries must honour the promise to deliver $100 billion
a year in climate finance;<br>
<br>
And they must present a clear plan showing how they will make good
on their commitment to double adaptation finance by 2025, as a first
step to ensuring at least half of all climate finance goes to
adaptation.<br>
<br>
Today’s report shows we’re in deep trouble.<br>
<br>
Leaders must get us out of it – starting at COP28.<br>
<br>
Thank you.<br>
<i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-11-30/secretary-generals-video-message-the-wmo-%E2%80%9Cstate-of-the-global-climate-2023%E2%80%9D-report-launch">https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-11-30/secretary-generals-video-message-the-wmo-%E2%80%9Cstate-of-the-global-climate-2023%E2%80%9D-report-launch</a></i><br>
<br>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ Expect technical presentations - this from the Cryosphere
Pavilion --video ]</i><br>
<b>Robbie Mallett | Arctic Amplification in 2023 and Beyond</b><br>
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<br>
12-1-2023<br>
The Arctic is warming at nearly four times the global average rate,
in a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. As well as impacting
those that live there, Arctic amplification has profound effects on
the glaciers, permafrost and sea ice which support the global
climate system. Amplified warming also means that the Arctic
contributes disproportionately to rises in global average
temperature. Dr Robbie Mallett will introduce the physical drivers
of Arctic amplification, and provide an update on the rate of
amplification for 2023. He will then discuss recent research showing
the extent to which Arctic Amplification contributes to earlier
breaches of COP 21’s Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise
below 1.5°C.<br>
Contacts: ICCI and University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of
Norway<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19FRW_TyQyI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19FRW_TyQyI</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ clips from a disinformation report ]</i><br>
<b>Deny, Deceive, Delay Vol. 3 - EMBARGOED COPY (27.11.23).docx</b><br>
Climate Information Integrity Ahead of COP28 <br>
Introduction<br>
A Year in Review: Breaking Records and Broken Records<br>
2023 has been another year of unprecedented temperatures, extreme
weather events and<br>
disasters compounded by climate change. After the warmest summer on
record and an<br>
equally benchmark-setting October, scientists now estimate this will
be the hottest year since<br>
1940 at a global level. The world has witnessed historic heatwaves
and storms, as well as the<br>
worst drought in East Africa for 40 years and wildfires which blazed
a devastating trail across<br>
Canada, Greece, Spain, Portugal and the United States. According to
NOAA (the National<br>
Oceanic and Atmospheric Association), there were 23 ‘billion-dollar
weather and climate<br>
disasters’ in the US alone from January-August 2023, and the World
Meteorological Organisation<br>
has projected that such events will become the “new norm”.<br>
<b>Failed Commitments</b><br>
The impacts of climate change are becoming more observable and acute
for billions of people,<br>
yet progress on climate action has been slow. The UAE – who will
host this year’s COP28 summit<br>
in Dubai – currently plan to expand oil and gas production in the
coming years; a trend echoed<br>
in countries from Norway and Australia to the United Kingdom and
China. Some of the largest oil<br>
and gas companies are also backtracking on their previous climate
pledges. Shell has shelved<br>
plans to reduce oil production this decade, while BP reduced its
previous commitment to cut<br>
emissions. In November 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA)
published a report showing<br>
that such companies only account for 1% of clean energy investment
worldwide, despite what is<br>
widely presented to the public via marketing and PR campaigns. These
backslides in progress<br>
are worrying when considered alongside sober warnings from the IEA,
IPCC and others, which<br>
clearly state that limiting warming below 1.5-degrees is
incompatible with new oil and gas<br>
development and requires the urgent phase out of all fossil fuels.<br>
<b>The Impacts of Mis- and Disinformation</b><br>
At this pivotal juncture, it is more important than ever for
societies to have a shared<br>
understanding of climate change, and to chart a path forward based
on credible science and<br>
data. Realising meaningful plans for Net Zero requires information
integrity, as without it a strong<br>
public mandate for meaningful action is far harder to build...<br>
<br>
Unfortunately, mis- and disinformation about climate continues to
thrive. As well as<br>
undermining public and political support for action, it is
increasingly linked to real-world<br>
harm. Such content not only impacts debate and implementation of
climate policy, but also<br>
centres climate as a vector for wider conspiracy theories,
scapegoating and social division...<br>
- -<br>
<b>Conclusion: What Next?</b><br>
This report offers a snapshot into the activity of three actor
groups: the fossil fuel lobby,<br>
State-affiliated networks and online influencers. While only a
fraction of the bigger picture, it<br>
reveals a range of vulnerabilities in our information environment
which must be addressed if we<br>
hope to progress with climate action and have vital, evidence-based
debates about the pace,<br>
scale and trade-offs of a Net Zero transition.<br>
Online platforms play a key role in this equation but have been
repeatedly found wanting in their<br>
response. A scorecard published by CAAD in September 2023 reviewed
the approaches taken by<br>
Pinterest, TikTok, Meta, YouTube and X/Twitter and found a sobering
state of play:<br>
<blockquote>1. YouTube, Meta and TikTok have made commitments to
address climate misinformation,<br>
but their enforcement is underperforming and many of the policies
fail to tackle root<br>
issues (e.g. algorithmic amplification).<br>
<br>
2. Twitter/X lacks the policies which would be needed to address
climate misinformation,<br>
offering no substantive transparency mechanisms for the public,
and providing no<br>
evidence on effective policy enforcement.<br>
<br>
3. All platforms fall short in providing algorithmic reporting,
and most lack reporting on<br>
misinformation trends.<br>
<br>
4. Most platforms lack policies to address greenwashing, a
practice that falsely portrays a<br>
company or product as environmentally friendly.<br>
</blockquote>
Looking ahead to 2024, we hope that landmark regulation like the EU
Digital Services Act, EU<br>
Code of Practice on Disinformation and UN Code of Conduct on
Information Integrity may mark<br>
a turning point. However, coordinated pressure and advocacy is
needed to ensure climate misand disinformation are broached
alongside other vectors of harm.<br>
The threat is clear, the evidence is mounting, and the time to act
is now<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://caad.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Deny-Deceive-Delay-Vol.-3-1.pdf">https://caad.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Deny-Deceive-Delay-Vol.-3-1.pdf</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ From RealClimate - site run by climate scientists - concern
over discinformation ]</i><br>
<b>Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28</b><br>
29 NOV 2023 <br>
BY STEFAN <br>
It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990
concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from
human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on
average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.” That has
indeed happened as predicted, it has been confirmed by a zillion
studies and has been scientific consensus for decades. Yet, when the
next global climate summit is coming up (it’s starting tomorrow), we
don’t only learn that the host, United Arab Emirates, intends to use
the event for new oil deals. We also see more attempts to cast doubt
that global warming is caused by emissions from burning oil, gas and
coal – as so often before these summits.<br>
<br>
This time making the rounds is a “discussion paper” published by
Statistics Norway. It is noteworthy not because it contains
anything new (it doesn’t), but because despite clearly violating the
established standards of good scientific practice, it was published
by a government agency. That’s why it is having an impact in
non-scientific quarters including the corporate world, and it has
even been cited in a submission to proceedings of the German
parliament...<br>
- -<br>
It is more than embarrassing that Statistics Norway has published
this nonsense. It is a scandal. Let’s hope it was not political on
the part of that institution, but just a bad mistake. If they want
to salvage their reputation and credibility, they should withdraw it
immediately, with an appropriate explanation of the real science of
global warming.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/11/science-denial-is-still-an-issue-ahead-of-cop28/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/11/science-denial-is-still-an-issue-ahead-of-cop28/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[Opinion - a 1.5 temp increase? video reading of research -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQqYeEJeKNI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQqYeEJeKNI</a> ]</i><br>
<b>What does 1.5C really mean? I doubt most people at COP28 could
even tell you!!</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Nov 30, 2023<br>
I will bet you that if you ask the government officials and
policymakers and negotiators at COP28 in Dubai what the 1.5 C
threshold actually means you would get blank stares, verbal
fumbling, and very few would be able to give you the correct answer.
<br>
<br>
So what is the correct answer? First you need to know about the
baseline and baseline shifts.<br>
<br>
Baseline 1: year 1750; original definition of “pre-industrial)<br>
<br>
Baseline 2: average of 1850 to 1900; new definition of
pre-industrial that everybody now uses<br>
<br>
Baseline 3: My tongue-in-cheek proposal is the average of 1970 to
2000, or 1980-2010; which lets us pretend we can still stay below
1.5C for a while longer.<br>
<br>
Realistically, the only possible way to keep 1.5C alive is to shift
the baseline (Baseline 2) to something more recent. I suggest
1980-2010, and then we have some leeway. Looks bad if we shift the
baseline too often. <br>
<br>
Alternately, we can say the 10 year or even better 20 year moving
average needs to be at 1.5C or 2.0C, for example. That gives us a
little more time to feel good about ourselves.<br>
<br>
Last time the baseline was shifted was a decade or two ago, with no
announcement or fuss. We shifted it to the present 1850-1900
(Baseline 2) from the original 1750 (Baseline 1), but neglected to
add the 0.2C to 0.3C difference. There is a paper in a medical
journal that argues the difference is closer to 0.13C.<br>
<br>
When the 1.5C and 2.0C temperature limits were first discussed by
the IPCC, they were relative to 1750 (Baseline 1).<br>
<br>
With our present baseline of 1850-1900 (Baseline 2), we are very
close to having 2023 above 1.5 (1.54 according to GISS; 1.4
according to WMO; I’ll do a video) will have a full year above 2C by
2038.<br>
- -<br>
So the BBC article about the 1.5C meaning is quite good, and I go
through it in this video.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained</a><br>
<br>
Essentially, it argued that the UN, conferences, governments
basically assume that exceeding the moving ten year average
exceeding 1.5 C is what is meant to exceed 1.5C. Even though if you
ask them, they have no actual idea that this is what they mean. Even
worse, they don’t know that they don’t know. To them 1.5C and 2.0C
are just targets, period. <br>
<br>
As I always say, the devil is on the details.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQqYeEJeKNI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQqYeEJeKNI</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ BBC explains the 1.5C threshold ]</i><br>
<b>Climate crisis: The 1.5C threshold explained</b><br>
30th November 2023<br>
By Martha Henriques<br>
Features correspondent<br>
@Martha_Rosamund<br>
<b>As leaders gather at COP28 in Dubai to discuss the climate crisis
and negotiate how the world will address it, we consider one of
the most important numbers in climate change: 1.5C.</b><br>
<br>
You might have read it in news headlines in the run up to COP28, the
UN climate talks held this year in Dubai, UAE. You might have heard
it as part of your nation's climate pledge. You might know it from
the Climate Clock in New York's Union Square, a public art project
and reminder of the urgency of the climate crisis.<br>
<br>
In any conversation about climate change, the figure "1.5C" is
rarely far from the discussion.<br>
<br>
But when people talk about "1.5C", what do they really mean? How do
we measure it? And where did the figure come from? Is it the right
target to be aiming for? And if we overshoot it, will we be able to
come back below 1.5C again? Ahead of the climate summit in Dubai, we
take a look at some of the questions around this key climate change
figure.<br>
<b><br>
What does keeping to the 1.5C threshold mean?</b><br>
It means that by the year 2100, the world's average surface
temperature will have risen to no more than 1.5C (2.7F) warmer than
pre-industrial levels.<br>
The 1.5C threshold was the stretch target established in the Paris
Agreement in 2015, a treaty in which 195 nations pledged to tackle
climate change. The agreement aims to limit global warming to "well
below" 2C by the end of the century, and "pursue efforts" to keep
warming within the safer limit of 1.5C.<br>
<br>
"One-point-five has become an iconic figure," says Sir David King,
former lead negotiator from the UK Foreign Office at the UN climate
summit in Paris, 2015, which resulted in the adoption of the Paris
Agreement.<br>
<br>
<b>Why 1.5C above "preindustrial levels"?</b><br>
The main reason is that the industrial revolution was the time when
Britain, followed by the rest of Europe, North America, Japan and
other nations, began emitting large quantities of fossil carbon –
carbon that would otherwise have remained locked up in oil, gas and
coal deposits underground.<br>
<br>
Industrialisation led to rapidly growing levels of greenhouse gases.
These gases trap the energy from the Sun within the atmosphere,
heating up the planet.<br>
<br>
In the Paris Agreement itself, the baseline for pre-industrial
measures wasn't defined. But the International Panel on Climate
Change uses a baseline of 1850-1900. That's because it's the
earliest period with reliable, near-global measurements. It's true
that some warming from human activity had already occurred by that
point, because the industrial revolution began in the early 1700s.
But having good historical data for a reliable baseline is crucial
to measure changes happening today.<br>
<br>
The 1850-1900 baseline is one that scientists, politicians,
policymakers, activists and everyone talking about climate change
can use and be sure they are all referring to the same thing.<br>
<b>Where did the 1.5C limit come from?</b><br>
The 1.5C "stretch target" in the Paris Agreement came as something
of a surprise.<br>
<br>
"I don't think anybody really thought that the Paris agreement would
be that ambitious," says Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science
at the University of Oxford, and a coordinating lead author on the
IPCC's special report on 1.5C in 2018.<br>
<br>
The 1.5C target was based on assessments of the impacts of climate
change at different levels of warming. For instance, the IPCC report
found that at this temperature, extreme heat is significantly less
common and intense in many parts of the world than at 2C. And at the
other extreme, the coldest nights at high latitudes warm by around
4.5C when the world is at an average of 1.5C warming. That figure is
especially important for the future of sea ice in the polar regions.
At 2C warming, the coldest nights warm by around 6C.<br>
"Before the Paris Agreement there wasn't really a focus point for
the world to aim for, to reduce the climate change process," says
Pauline Dube, an environmental scientist at the University of
Botswana, also a coordinating lead author on the IPCC's 1.5C report.<br>
<br>
"To have had a situation where the world agreed on a target figure –
that was a significant development in the climate change community."<br>
<b><br>
Is 1.5C a safe level of warming?</b><br>
In a 1.5C world, many of the deadliest effects of climate change are
reduced. Sea level rise is expected to be around 10cm (4in) lower at
1.5C compared with 2C. However, irreversible melting of ice sheets
on Greenland and Antarctica could be triggered between 1.5C and 2C,
meaning that sea levels would continue to rise well beyond 2100. But
it would happen more slowly at 1.5C than 2C, buying time for
communities to adapt.<br>
<br>
For small island nations and low-lying nations already seeing
storms, rising sea levels and degradation of land and reefs, 1.5C
would still pose an existential challenge. Loss and damage funding
is seen as crucial for the long-term survival and adaptation of
small islands and low-lying nations, as well as other nations
especially vulnerable to climate change.<br>
<br>
Compared with today, a 1.5C world would also be at increased risk of
extreme heat, stresses on food production and access to water, and
the range of insect-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever,
among other threats.<br>
The damage done at the 1.5C threshold also depends on how we get to
1.5C. If we overshoot 1.5C in the 21st Century and then reduce
warming back to 1.5C (an "overshoot"), the risks are greater than if
the world gradually stabilises at 1.5C. The peak temperature of the
century will also have a big impact on the survival of ecosystems,
such as tropical corals.<br>
<br>
<b>But have we not passed the 1.5C threshold already?</b><br>
The year 2023 is on track to be the hottest on record. It brought
the world's hottest July in 120,000 years, and September was also
the hottest on record by a large margin.<br>
<br>
The global average daily temperature was more than 1.5C more than
the preindustrial average for roughly one-third of days in 2023.
Needless to say, this was a record number of days above the 1.5C
daily limit...<br>
But there is a big difference between the global temperature on
individual days, and the long-term average. The latter is what's
meant when the 1.5C threshold is discussed in negotiations like
COP28 – 1.5C warming is an average figure over a decadal time scale.
This is a hard thing to measure, says Allen, and we know the global
decade-to-decade average to within about a tenth of a degree at
best.<br>
<br>
Just as if you look at individual days rather than long-term
averages, if you zoom in on particular regions of the world, we can
also see that the 1.5C is being breached on local and regional
levels.<br>
<br>
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the rest of the
world since 1979. Africa, too, warmed by around 0.3C per decade
between 1991 and 2020, faster than the global average and faster
than the 0.2C per decade in the 30 years before that.<br>
<br>
<b>When might we pass 1.5C on our current track and how will we
know?</b><br>
Earlier in 2023, the IPCC calculated that by the mid-2030s there
would be a 50% chance of the world commiting itself to a rise of
1.5C. However, a new analysis taking into account more recent data
suggests we could reach this threshold sooner – as early as 2029.<br>
<br>
Because the IPCC uses long-term averages for the global temperature,
we will pass 1.5C warming on individual days, months and years
before the decadal average is considered to be past 1.5C.<br>
<br>
And because of the difficulty in accurately estimating the global
temperature from decade to decade, "it doesn't make too much sense
to get hung up on exactly which year will cross 1.5C", says Allen.<br>
<br>
Why do the estimates of when we will hit 1.5C warming change?<br>
When countries introduce more – or less – ambitious policies for
tackling climate change, the estimate for when that level of warming
will be reached is adjusted too.<br>
<br>
Changes to the estimate can also happen when new analyses of
historical climate data help to refine climate models.<br>
<br>
For instance, since the IPCC's 1.5C report, there has been one
significant update since the report was published, Allen notes,
which came when scientists re-analysed the historical record. The
findings were that we are 0.2C warmer relative to preindustrial
levels.<br>
<br>
This doesn't change the big picture though. "You don't need a model
to know that, if you are that close, we're going to reach 1.5C in
around a decade or so at that rate of warming," says Allen.<br>
<br>
<b>How much worse is 1.5C than 1C, and how much better than 2C?</b><br>
The difference between 1.5C and 2C is a whole lot worse than between
1C and 1.5C, says Allen.<br>
<br>
"We know that the impacts get worse with warming – but we also know
that the rate at which impacts get worse per degree also gets worse
with warming," says Allen.<br>
<br>
To put it another way, every tenth of a degree of warming matters,
but as you get warmer each increment matters more.<br>
<br>
"The reason we know this is because the world's ecosystems and
economies were adapted to the climate of the late 19th and early
20th Century," says Allen. "That's the climate our ecosystems have
been dealing with for the past few thousand years and it's the
climate which our economies grew up with."...<br>
<b>Can we come back from 1.5C?</b><br>
Depending on how far we overshoot 1.5C, the answer is yes, says
King. This is the idea of "overshoot" – exceeding the 1.5C target
but then making our way back to it.<br>
<br>
"Overshoot is a terrible idea," says King, adding that rapid
reduction in emissions now to avoid overshoot is by far the safest
option. But as a backstop, it might be necessary so that we don't
lose sight of a safe limit of warming altogether.<br>
<br>
To get back below 1.5C after overshoot would require carbon capture
on a massive scale. These technologies remove carbon from the
atmosphere and store it in an inert form.<br>
<br>
The levels of carbon removal required to return to 1.5C warming in
an overshoot scenario would be massive. The Climate Crisis Advisory
Group (CCAG), which King leads and which recently published a report
on overshoot, puts the figure between 10 and 15 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide per year – that's 3-4.5 times more than the EU's
total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, and about 2-3 times the US's
emissions in the same year.<br>
<br>
To stand a chance of reversing overshoot, these technologies would
need to be used in addition to eliminating the vast majority of new
greenhouse gas emissions, notes King, not a replacement for cutting
emissions...<br>
So far, these technologies exist only at a small scale, and they
remain very expensive.<br>
<br>
<b>Is 1.5C the right target?</b><br>
Given the extreme weather we are already seeing, some argue that
1.5C is not the final figure we should have in mind. <br>
<br>
"CCAG is saying, 1.5C is already too high – look at what's happening
today," says King. "And so we're saying, we will need to get it back
down to less than 1C above the preindustrial level."<br>
<br>
Even at 1.5C, the risk to crops could lead to a global food crisis
and push us past crucial climate tipping points, such as Arctic ice
melt and permafrost thaw. Instead, focusing on getting net
temperature change to zero, and then into a period of cooling, could
be a fairer approach, as policy analysts at the think tank Chatham
House have argued.<br>
<br>
Can we exploit new sources of fossil fuels and still meet the 1.5C
limit?<br>
Burning fossil fuels causes more than 75% of anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions, and more than 90% of carbon dioxide
emissions from human activites.<br>
<br>
The fossil fuels produced from existing oil, gas and coal fields are
more than enough to breach the 1.5C limit. Extracting fossil fuels
from new oil and gas fields is incompatible with a 1.5C limit,
according to a report by the International Institute for Sustainable
Development and another by the International Energy Agency.<br>
<br>
At present, governments are already planning to produce more than
double the amount of fossil fuels than would be compatible with a
1.5C pathway. The UN's latest Emissions Gap report states that the
world is on track for 3C of warming by the end of the century.<br>
<br>
This is despite these projects coming with greater commercial risks
and dwindling profits in the decades to come – if all of today's
national climate goals are reached, private oil and gas companies
would be worth 25% less than today. If the world gets on track for
1.5C warming, they would be worth 60% less.<br>
<br>
<b>Who thinks 1.5C is still viable, and who thinks it isn't?</b><br>
Keeping 1.5C within sight would require rapid and unprecedented
levels of action.<br>
<br>
In terms of the picture the research paints, "that likelihood is
almost like gone", says Dube.<br>
<br>
Similarly, in 2022, Bill Gates said he saw "no chance" of the world
staying within the 1.5C threshold, but believes innovation in
climate technologies, such as forms of carbon capture, are promising
solutions to climate change. In 2022, a number of media outlets
declared that it was time to "say goodbye" to 1.5C.<br>
<br>
But there has been pushback to these sentiments from figures
including the IEA executive director Fatih Birol. "It is factually
incorrect, and politically it is very wrong," Birol told the
Guardian newspaper in 2022. "The fact is that the chances of 1.5C
are narrowing, but it is still achievable."<br>
<br>
For nations whose survival depends on keeping warming to levels as
low as possible, 1.5C is also still front and centre of the debate.
In an opinion article, journalist Amy Martin compares giving up on
1.5C to watching a fire you accidentally started burn, rather than
trying to put it out.<br>
<br>
"We're not doomed to a warming at 1.5C," says Allen. "It's very
important to understand that it's still possible to limit warming to
1.5C, because we're not there yet."<br>
<br>
Allen calculates that to fully abate the fossil fuel carbon dioxide
emissions from 2022 would cost about $6tn (£4.7tn). "But, that said,
we spent $13tn (£10tn) on fossil fuels last year. That was a year
which was obviously affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and
so on, but it goes to show that the money is out there to fix the
problem. It's just not being directed to solving the problem at the
moment."<br>
<br>
Getty Images Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts
will become still more common and more intense with climate change
(Credit: Getty Images)Getty Images<br>
Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts will become
still more common and more intense with climate change (Credit:
Getty Images)<br>
What are some promising signs of staying within 1.5C to look out
for?<br>
<br>
For King, strong leadership from the US and China is one of the most
promising things he could see coming out of the COP28 climate
summit.<br>
<br>
"I believe it's critically important for the United States and China
to first of all come forward with a strategy," says King.<br>
<br>
King negotiated with the Chinese and US climate envoys in 2015, both
of whom are still in post. The US and China recently released an
agreement on climate action between the two countries.<br>
<br>
"Now it doesn't go far enough, but nevertheless, what a wonderful
start," says King. "I think it's critically important, because,
frankly, if China and the United States come forward, the European
Union will join them. I think India will join them and, with Lula
(President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) in place in Brazil, I think
Brazil will join them. And then everyone else will."<br>
<br>
For Allen, it's a focus on the positive tipping points that can
signal accelerated decarbonisation – such as the changes seen in the
renewable power sector and uptake of electric vehicles.<br>
<br>
For Dube, she is looking out for a shift in perspective that
acknowledges the deep injustice that comes with climate change
fuelled by the Global North, but felt most keenly in the Global
South. That means signals that climate change is being tackled
fairly, with adequate support for adaptation and loss and damage
funding for climate-vulnerable nations.<br>
<br>
"The crucial point of change is really to realise that we need a
whole-society transformation," says Dube.<br>
--<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - accidentally
honest comment - from politician. ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>December 1, 1987 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> December 1, 1987: During a Democratic
presidential debate on NBC, Rep. Richard Gephardt states that the US
must work with the Soviet Union on addressing international
environmental issues such as the ozone layer and greenhouse gas
emissions, noting, “The problem we’ve had with these issues is not
that we don’t know what to talk about; the problem we’ve had is that
America hasn’t been a leader.”<br>
(25:10—26:03)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.c-span.org/video/?20-1/Presidential">http://www.c-span.org/video/?20-1/Presidential</a> <br>
<br>
<br>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><br>
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--------------------------------------- <br>
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