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<font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>December </b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>6, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ Tipping points is not a place in China ]</i><br>
<b>Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points,
scientists warn</b><br>
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass
displacement and financial ruin as planet warms<br>
Ajit Niranjan <br>
European environment correspondent<br>
Tue 5 Dec 2023<br>
Many of the gravest threats to humanity are drawing closer, as
carbon pollution heats the planet to ever more dangerous levels,
scientists have warned.<br>
<br>
Five important natural thresholds already risk being crossed,
according to the Global Tipping Points report, and three more may be
reached in the 2030s if the world heats 1.5C (2.7F) above
pre-industrial temperatures.<br>
<br>
Triggering these planetary shifts will not cause temperatures to
spiral out of control in the coming centuries but will unleash
dangerous and sweeping damage to people and nature that cannot be
undone.<br>
<br>
“Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude
never faced by humanity,” said Tim Lenton, from the University of
Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “They can trigger devastating
domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity
to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass
displacement, political instability and financial collapse.”<br>
<br>
The tipping points at risk include the collapse of big ice sheets in
Greenland and the West Antarctic, the widespread thawing of
permafrost, the death of coral reefs in warm waters, and the
collapse of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic.<br>
<br>
Unlike other changes to the climate such as hotter heatwaves and
heavier rainfall, these systems do not slowly shift in line with
greenhouse gas emissions but can instead flip from one state to an
entirely different one. When a climatic system tips – sometimes with
a sudden shock – it may permanently alter the way the planet works.<br>
<br>
Scientists warn that there are large uncertainties around when such
systems will shift but the report found that three more may soon
join the list. These include mangroves and seagrass meadows, which
are expected to die off in some regions if the temperatures rise
between 1.5C and 2C, and boreal forests, which may tip as early as
1.4C of heating or as late as 5C.<br>
<br>
The warning comes as world leaders meet for the Cop28 climate summit
in Dubai. On Tuesday, Climate Action Tracker estimated that their
emissions targets for 2030 put the planet on track to heat 2.5C by
the end of the century, despite promises from countries at a
previous summit to try to limit it to 1.5C.<br>
The tipping point report, produced by an international team of 200
researchers and funded by Bezos Earth Fund, is the latest in a
series of warnings about the most extreme effects of climate change.<br>
<br>
Scientists have warned that some of the shifts can create feedback
loops that heat the planet further or alter weather patterns in a
way that triggers other tipping points.<br>
<br>
The researchers said the systems were so tightly linked they could
not rule out “tipping cascades”. If the Greenland ice sheet
disintegrates, for instance, it could lead to an abrupt shift in the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important current
that delivers most of the heat to the gulf stream. That, in turn,
can intensify the El Niño southern oscillation, one of the most
powerful weather patterns on the planet.<br>
<br>
The co-author Sina Loriani, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, said tipping-point risks could be disastrous and
should be taken very seriously, despite the remaining uncertainties.<br>
“Crossing these thresholds may trigger fundamental and sometimes
abrupt changes that could irreversibly determine the fate of
essential parts of our Earth system for the coming hundreds or
thousands of years,” he said.<br>
<br>
In its latest review of climate change science, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that tipping
thresholds were unclear but the dangers would grow more likely as
the planet heats up.<br>
<br>
It said: “Risks associated with large-scale singular events or
tipping points, such as ice-sheet instability or ecosystem loss from
tropical forests, transition to high risk between 1.5C to 2.5C and
to very high risk between 2.5C to 4C.”<br>
<br>
The tipping point report also looked at what it called “positive
tipping points”, such as the plummeting price of renewable energy
and the growth in sales of electric vehicles. It found that such
shifts do not happen by themselves but need to be enabled by
stimulating innovation, shaping markets, regulating business, and
educating and mobilising the public.<br>
<br>
A study from the report’s co-author Manjana Milkoreit last year
warned against overusing the label of social tipping points by
promising solutions that did not exist at scale or could not be
controlled.<br>
<br>
“While scholarship benefits from hope, we need to exercise caution
when offering social tipping points as potential solutions to the
temporal squeeze of climate change,” she wrote.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ More about tipping points -- text ]</i><br>
<b>Global Tipping Points </b><br>
<b>Summary Report</b><br>
Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest
threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our
planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our
societies.<br>
Introduction<br>
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating
Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to
alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social
justice.<br>
<blockquote><b>Section 1 </b>Earth system tipping points<br>
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and
assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere,
biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere.<br>
<br>
<b>Section 2 </b>Tipping point impacts<br>
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human
impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential
couplings to negative tipping points in human systems.<br>
<br>
<b>Section 3 </b>Governance of Earth system tipping points<br>
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their
associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention
and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts,
including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage.<br>
<br>
<b>Section 4 </b>Positive tipping points in technology, economy
& society<br>
</blockquote>
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and
society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on
positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies
across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus
on demand-side solutions.<br>
Summary Report <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://global-tipping-points.org/download/4607/">https://global-tipping-points.org/download/4607/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://global-tipping-points.org/">https://global-tipping-points.org/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ CNBC video in Dubai, "150 billion - 45% of financing by 2025 -
10 billion/year"]</i><br>
<b>Banks in UAE are getting serious about climate change, Mashreq
Bank CEO says</b><br>
Ahmed Abdelaal, Mashreq Bank CEO, says the Middle East "still at the
very nascent stage" of the climate "transformation."<br>
MON, DEC 4 2023<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/04/banks-in-uae-getting-serious-about-climate-change-mashreq-bank-ceo.html">https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/04/banks-in-uae-getting-serious-about-climate-change-mashreq-bank-ceo.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ All oceans are rising - now about 3mm per year - </i><i> rising
exponentially about 3 meters this century - ice melt will
continue to raise ocean waters to a max of over 80 meters. ]</i><br>
<b>Quinault Tribe builds new village site away from rising seas</b><br>
John Ryan<br>
December 04, 2023 <br>
With winter storms and high tides approaching, the Quinault Indian
Nation continues efforts to relocate its seaside villages.<br>
<br>
In recent years, the village of Taholah, the largest on the Quinault
Indian Reservation on Washington’s Olympic coast, has had to
evacuate when waves overtopped the seawall separating it from the
Pacific Ocean.<br>
<br>
For about a decade, the tribe has been working to move the village
of 660 people out of reach of rising seas and tsunamis.<br>
<br>
Construction crews installed streets, sidewalks, and underground
utilities in the fall of 2023 for a neighborhood of 59 homes about 1
mile inland.<br>
<br>
“We went from forest land about three years ago, and now we have a
finished product full of street signs and sidewalks and drainages,
so it's a really cool sight to see,” said Ryan Hendricks, a Quinault
Tribal Council member and former construction manager.<br>
<br>
Hendricks lives in the lower portion of Taholah Village, where homes
and businesses sit about 6 feet above the average daily high tide.
An expanding ocean, fueled by global warming, is gradually pushing
sea levels higher, while king tides that come every November,
December, and January can quickly push seas much higher for short
stretches. So can winter storms.<br>
Satellite images show the top of the seawall that protects Taholah
from the surf is now littered with logs tossed there by the ocean.<br>
<br>
“A lot of these logs are getting shoved over the seawall by the
waves and the high tides, and they're landing in tribal members
backyards,” Hendricks said. “And it's a little bit scary.”<br>
<br>
In January 2022, much of the lower village had to evacuate from
flooding during a stormy high tide. The tribe put elders up at the
Quinault Beach Resort and Casino in Ocean Shores, about 20 miles
south of Taholah.<br>
<br>
Taholah is gradually becoming one of the first communities in the
country to retreat as a warming climate raises sea levels. But it’s
a slow process.<br>
<br>
A community building for daycare and senior programs opened in 2022
at the upland site.<br>
Hendricks said the tribe is seeking more federal grants to be able
to start building homes.<br>
<br>
In 2022, the Biden Administration provided $25 million each to the
Quinault Nation and the Alaskan villages of Newtok and Napakiak to
help relocate three tribal villages away from rising seas.<br>
<br>
The Quinault Nation was turned down for three federal grants in 2023
and is applying for two more grants this year.<br>
<br>
Hendricks said he hopes the first Quinault elders can move to the
upland Taholah village within the next two years.<br>
The Quinault Nation is also planning to relocate its smaller village
of Queets, though that work is mostly in the planning stages.<br>
<br>
To the north, the Quileute Tribe relocated its tribal school out of
the tsunami zone in 2022 and has plans to move other critical
facilities in the surfside town of La Push to higher ground.
Quileute representatives did not respond to requests for more
information on those plans.<br>
<br>
“There are lots of examples of places that no longer exist on the
map, so this has happened before,” said Washington Sea Grant
oceanographer Ian Miller. “There are not too many instances of it
happening in this kind of planned, managed, coordinated way.”<br>
<br>
Few communities have confronted sea-level rise as head-on as Taholah
has. That might change soon.<br>
<br>
In July, the Washington State Legislature required counties and
cities of at least 6,000 residents to incorporate climate change
impacts in their comprehensive plans. The cities must address
climate-amplified hazards such as flooding, fire, and droughts as
well as the need to reduce planet-heating emissions.<br>
Local governments’ shoreline regulations are now required to address
“the impact of sea level rise and increased storm severity.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.kuow.org/stories/quinault-tribe-builds-new-village-site-away-from-rising-seas">https://www.kuow.org/stories/quinault-tribe-builds-new-village-site-away-from-rising-seas</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ see a video from earlier this year ]</i><br>
<b>What it costs to save a town from sea-level rise</b><br>
The Quinault Indian Nation, located about 150 miles west of Seattle
on the Washington coast, has experienced severe flooding due to
sea-level rise over the past few years. And it’s only poised to get
worse. So with the assistance of state and federal funding, the
tribe is preparing to move a mile up the hill, where a new village
is being built. But relocation is a long and expensive process, and
questions remain about how tribal members will afford the move.<br>
TUE, AUG 22 2023<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html">https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Media opinion with Kevin Anderson video "sycophants, we're
giving them too much air"]</i><br>
<b>With Professor Kevin Anderson Discussing Remarks By Bill gates</b><br>
Nick Breeze ClimateGenn<br>
Dec 5, 2023 ClimateGenn #podcast produced by Nick Breeze<br>
Bill Gates has been interviewed on different occasions in the last
couple of months making bold statements about planting trees and,
more recently at COP28, how a temperature rise of 3ºC is not too
bad. This segment with climate scientist, Professor Kevin Anderson
from the Tyndall Centre at University of Manchester and also at the
University of Uppsala, reflects on Bill Gates and people like him,
asking why they get so much media coverage considering the accuracy
of what they say.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkthXebL6Uk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkthXebL6Uk</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ audio play of discussion ]</i><br>
<b>Promise vs. propaganda: Can tech fix the climate crisis?</b><br>
DECEMBER 4TH, 2023 | 17:15 | E711<br>
EPISODE SUMMARY<br>
The big U.N. Climate Change Conference -- COP28 -- is underway in
Dubai and the role of emerging technologies in the fight against
global warming is likely to be a recurring theme. On POLITICO Tech,
host Steven Overly asks Marcene Mitchell of the World Wildlife Fund
to expound on the promise and the hype behind these technologies.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://politico-tech.simplecast.com/episodes/promise-vs-propaganda-can-tech-fix-the-climate-crisis">https://politico-tech.simplecast.com/episodes/promise-vs-propaganda-can-tech-fix-the-climate-crisis</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ understanding permafrost melt - video ]</i><br>
<b>What Everyone Should Know About Permafrost Thaw</b><br>
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<br>
Dec 3, 2023<br>
Hear directly from Arctic scientists about why permafrost matters
and its relevance to climate negotiations. You’ll learn about what
permafrost is and where is it found; carbon emissions from
permafrost thaw; tipping points; the state of monitoring, measuring,
and accounting for these emissions; land degradation and
displacement of Arctic communities; loss and damage in the
circumarctic and the impacts on Indigenous and non-Indigenous
communities; and the need for co-produced resilience strategies.<br>
Contacts: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Bolin Centre for Climate
Research, Alfred Wegener Institute<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A2uNZQKrFA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A2uNZQKrFA</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Video - this big berg has been free floating for a few years,
and so would not increase sea level rise as it melts ]</i><br>
<b>World's largest iceberg on the move from Antarctica</b><br>
Global News<br>
Dec 5, 2023 #GlobalNews #antarctica<br>
A23a, the world's largest iceberg, is on the move for the first time
in 35 years, drifting beyond Antarctica. <br>
<br>
The discovery was made by scientists who analyzed recent satellite
images and are now closely watching its trajectory. <br>
<br>
This massive chunk of ice weighs one trillion tons and is three
times the size of New York City. <br>
<br>
Eric Sorensen explains why it's drifting, where it's heading, and
the potential problems it could cause.<br>
<br>
For more info, please go to
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10040706/calgary-researcher-sea-ice-antarctica-lowest/">https://globalnews.ca/news/10040706/calgary-researcher-sea-ice-antarctica-lowest/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH6VxXQd1L0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH6VxXQd1L0</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - James Hansen PDF
explaining 50 different charts and graphics ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>December 6, 2005 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> December 6, 2005: At the American
Geophysical Union meeting in California, James Hansen delivers a
speech entitled: "Is There Still Time to Avoid ‘Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global Climate?"...<br>
<blockquote><b>Chart 50. Summary: Is There Still Time? Yes, but:</b><br>
So, in summary, is there still time to avoid dangerous human-made
interference with<br>
climate? I believe the evidence shows with reasonable clarity that
the level of additional global<br>
warming that would put us into dangerous territory is about 1°C,
not 2 or 3°C. We will need to<br>
refine our estimate as more data comes in, but I am quite
confident of this assertion.<br>
Yes, it is technically possible to avoid the grim “business-as
usual” climate change, to follow<br>
an alternative scenario in which growth of greenhouse gas
emissions is slowed in the first quarter<br>
of this century, primarily via concerted improvements in energy
efficiency and a parallel<br>
reduction of non-CO2 climate forcings, and then reduced via
advanced energy technologies that<br>
yield a cleaner atmosphere as well as a stable climate. The
required actions make practical sense<br>
and have other benefits, but they will not happen without strong
policy leadership and<br>
international cooperation. Action must be prompt, otherwise
CO2-producing infrastructure that<br>
may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep
further global warming under 1°C<br>
- -<br>
I said that I would return to the question of why, if an
alternative scenario is practical, has<br>
multiple benefits, and makes good common sense, why are we not
doing it?<br>
There is little merit in casting blame for inaction, unless it
helps point toward a solution. It<br>
seems to me that special interests have been a roadblock wielding
undue influence over<br>
policymakers. The special interests seek to maintain short-term
profits with little regard to either<br>
the long-term impact on the planet that will be inherited by our
children and grandchildren or the<br>
long-term economic well-being of our country.<br>
The public, if well-informed, has the ability to override the
influence of special interests, and<br>
the public has shown that they feel a stewardship toward the Earth
and all of its inhabitants.<br>
Scientists can play a useful role if they help communicate the
climate change story to the public<br>
in a credible, understandable fashion.<br>
</blockquote>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2005/Keeling_20051206.pdf">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2005/Keeling_20051206.pdf</a> <br>
</p>
<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <br>
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