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<p><font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>December 11</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>, 2023</b></i></font></p>
<i>[ "A moment of truth is coming..." -- world leaders and IEA --
video summary]</i><br>
<b>If BIG OIL fails, do we all go down with it??</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
Dec 10, 2023<br>
The International Energy Agency just released a new paper analysing
how oil and gas will dwindle in the next three decades to a small
fraction of their current size, basically making non-combustible
products. But that means many fossil fuel producers will fall by the
wayside. If they do, will they take us down with them?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg_nr0IYirU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg_nr0IYirU</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ the </i>Executive Summar<i>y of the IEA World Energy Outlook
Special Report - PDF file ]</i><br>
<b>The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions</b><br>
- <br>
<b>A moment of truth is coming for the oil and gas industry</b><br>
<b>Structural changes in the energy sector are now moving fast
enough to deliver a peak in oil</b><br>
<b>and gas demand by the end of this decade under today’s policy
settings.</b> After the peak,<br>
demand is not currently set to decline quickly enough to align with
the Paris Agreement and<br>
the 1.5 °C goal. But if governments deliver in full on their
national energy and climate<br>
pledges, then oil and gas demand would be 45% below today's level by
2050 and the<br>
temperature rise could be limited to 1.7 °C. If governments
successfully pursue a 1.5 °C<br>
trajectory, and emissions from the global energy sector reach net
zero by mid-century, oil<br>
and gas use would fall by 75% to 2050.<br>
<br>
<b>This new IEA report explores what oil and gas companies can do to
accelerate net zero</b><br>
<b>transitions and what this might mean for an industry which
currently provides more than</b><br>
<b>half of global energy supply and employs nearly 12 million
workers worldwide.</b> Since 2018,<br>
the annual revenues generated by the oil and gas industry have
averaged close to USD 3.5<br>
trillion. Around half of this went to governments, while 40% went
back into investment and<br>
10% was returned to shareholders or used to pay down debt. The
implications of net zero<br>
transitions are far from uniform: the industry encompasses a wide
range of players, from<br>
small, specialised operators to huge national oil companies (NOCs).
While attention often<br>
focuses on the role of the majors, which are seven large,
international players, they hold less<br>
than 13% of global oil and gas production and reserves. NOCs account
for more than half of<br>
global production and close to 60% of the world’s oil and gas
reserves.<br>
<br>
<b>The industry’s engagement with clean energy transitions will be a
key topic at COP28, but</b><br>
<b>this report provides a reference for a debate that will continue
well beyond the UN climate<br>
summit in Dubai.</b><br>
<p><b>Most oil and gas companies are watching energy transitions
from the sidelines</b></p>
<b>Oil and gas producers account for only 1% of total clean energy
investment globally.</b> More<br>
than 60% of this comes from just four companies, out of thousands of
producers of oil and<br>
gas around the world today. For the moment the oil and gas industry
as a whole is a marginal<br>
force in the world’s transition to a clean energy system.<br>
<br>
<b>The first-order task is to slash emissions from company
operations</b><br>
<b>While there is no single blueprint for change, there is one
element that can and should be<br>
in all company transition strategies: reducing emissions from the
industry’s own<br>
operations.</b> As things stand, less than half of current global
oil and gas output is produced by<br>
companies that have targets to reduce these emissions. A far broader
coalition – with much<br>
more ambitious targets – is needed to achieve meaningful reductions
across the oil and gas<br>
industry. The production, transport and processing of oil and gas
results in just under 15% of<br>
global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. This is a huge
amount, equivalent to all<br>
energy-related greenhouse gas emissions from the United States. <br>
<br>
<b>To align with a 1.5 °C scenario, these emissions need to be cut
by more than 60% by 2030</b><br>
<b>from today’s levels and the emissions intensity of global oil and
gas operations must near</b><br>
<b>zero by the early 2040s. </b>These are appropriate benchmarks
for industry-wide action on<br>
emissions, regardless of the future scenario. The emissions
intensity of the worst performers<br>
is currently five- to ten-times higher than the best. Methane
accounts for half of the total<br>
emissions from oil and gas operations. Tackling methane leaks is a
top priority and can be<br>
done very cost-effectively – but it is not the only priority.<br>
<br>
<b>Transitions will hurt the bottom line for companies focused on
oil and gas</b><br>
<b>The volatility of fossil fuel prices means that revenues could
fluctuate from year to year –<br>
but the bottom line is that oil and gas becomes a less profitable
and a riskier business as<br>
net zero transitions accelerate.</b> Prices and output are
generally lower and the risk of<br>
stranded assets is higher, especially in the midstream sector that
includes refineries and<br>
facilities for liquefied natural gas. If expectations are that
demand and prices follow a<br>
scenario based on today’s policy settings, that would value today’s
private oil and gas<br>
companies at around USD 6 trillion. If all national energy and
climate goals are reached, this<br>
value is lower by 25%, and by 60% if the world gets on track to
limit global warming to 1.5 °C.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Oil and gas projects currently produce slightly higher
returns on investment, but those</b><br>
<b>returns are less stable. </b>We estimate that the return on
capital employed in the oil and gas<br>
industry averaged around 6-9% between 2010 and 2022, whereas it was
6% for clean energy<br>
projects. Oil and gas returns varied greatly over time compared with
more consistent returns<br>
for clean energy projects.<br>
<b><br>
Oil and gas investment is needed in all scenarios, but the demand
trajectory<br>
in a 1.5 °C world leaves no room for new fields</b><br>
<b>Continued investment in oil and gas supply is needed in all
scenarios, but the<br>
USD 800 billion it currently invests each year is double what is
required in 2030 to meet<br>
declining demand in a 1.5 °C scenario. </b>Investment in existing
and some new fields is<br>
necessary in a world that achieves national energy and climate
pledges, although there is no<br>
need in aggregate for new exploration. In a scenario that hits
global net zero emissions by<br>
2050, declines in demand are sufficiently steep that no new long
lead-time conventional oil<br>
and gas projects are required. Some existing production would even
need to be shut in. In<br>
2040, more than 7 million barrels per day of oil production is
pushed out of operation before<br>
the end of its technical lifetime in a 1.5 °C scenario.<br>
<br>
<b>In net zero transitions, new project developments face major
commercial risks and could<br>
</b><b>also lock in emissions that push the world over the 1.5 °C
threshold. </b>Producers need to<br>
explain how any new resource developments are viable within a global
pathway to net zero<br>
emissions by 2050 and be transparent about how they plan to avoid
pushing this goal out of<br>
reach.<br>
<br>
<b>Not all producers can be the last ones standing </b><br>
<p><b>Many producers say they will be the ones to keep producing
throughout transitions and
beyond.</b> They cannot all be right. Oil and gas production is
vastly reduced in net zero
transitions but does not disappear. Even in a 1.5 °C scenario,
some 24 million barrels per day
of oil is produced in 2050 (three-quarters is used in sectors
where the oil is not combusted,
notably in petrochemicals), as well as some 920 billion cubic
metres of natural gas, roughly
half of which is used for hydrogen production. </p>
<p><b>The distribution of future supply among producers will depend
on the weight assigned to
lowering costs, ensuring diversity of supply, reducing
emissions, and fostering economic
development.</b> Market forces naturally favour the lowest-cost
production, but that leads to a
high concentration in supply among today’s major resource holders,
notably in the Middle
East. Prioritising the least emissions-intensive sources drives
progress towards climate goals,
but this often favours low-cost producers, so supply still becomes
more concentrated. It is
much better for transitions if all producers take targeted action
to reduce their emissions. If
production from low-income producers is favoured, these projects
may not ultimately be
very profitable in a well-supplied market. And if countries prefer
domestically produced oil
and gas as a way to buttress energy security, they reduce reliance
on others but risk finding
themselves with relatively high-cost projects in a low-price
world. </p>
<b>The oil and gas industry is well placed to scale up some crucial
technologies
for net zero transitions… <br>
</b><b>Some 30% of the energy consumed in a net zero energy system
in 2050 comes from low emissions fuels and technologies that could
benefit from the skills and resources of the oil
and gas industry. </b>These include hydrogen and hydrogen-based
fuels; carbon capture,
utilisation and storage (CCUS); offshore wind; liquid biofuels;
biomethane; and geothermal
energy. Oil and gas companies are already partners in a large share
of planned hydrogen
projects that use CCUS and electrolysis. The oil and gas industry is
involved in 90% of CCUS
capacity in operation around the world. CCUS and direct air capture
are important
technologies for achieving net zero emissions, especially to tackle
or offset emissions in hardto-abate sectors. For the moment, only
around 2% of offshore wind capacity in operation
was developed by oil and gas companies. Plans are expanding,
however, and the technology
frontier for offshore wind – including floating turbines in deeper
waters – moves this sector
closer to areas of oil and gas company strength. In addition,
industry skills and infrastructure,
including existing retail networks and refineries, give the industry
advantages in areas like
electric vehicle charging and plastic recycling.
…but this requires a step-change in the industry’s allocation of
investment
Companies that have announced a target to diversify their activities
into clean energy
account for just under one-fifth of current oil and gas production.
The oil and gas industry
invested around USD 20 billion in clean energy in 2022, some 2.5% of
its total capital
spending. In this report, we offer a new framework for assessing the
strategies of oil and gas
companies and the extent to which they are making a meaningful
contribution to transitions. <br>
<br>
<b>For producers that choose to diversify and are looking to align
with the aims of the Paris<br>
</b><b>Agreement, our bottom-up analysis of cash flows in a 1.5 °C
scenario suggests that a</b><br>
<b>reasonable ambition is for 50% of capital expenditures to go
towards clean energy projects</b><br>
<b>by 2030, on top of the investment needed to reduce scope 1 and 2
emissions.</b><br>
Not all oil and gas companies have to diversify into clean energy,
but the alternative is to<br>
wind down traditional operations over time. Some companies may take
the view that their<br>
specialisation is in oil and natural gas and so decide that – rather
than risking money on<br>
unfamiliar business areas – others are better placed to allocate
this capital. But aligning their<br>
strategies with net zero transitions would then require them to
scale back oil and gas<br>
activities while investing in scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Two pitfalls for the discussion about the future of oil and
gas</b><br>
<b>A productive debate about the oil and gas industry in transitions
needs to avoid two</b><br>
<b>common misconceptions. </b>The first is that transitions can
only be led by changes in demand.<br>
“When the energy world changes, so will we” is not an adequate
response to the immense<br>
challenges at hand. An imbalanced focus on reducing supply is
equally unproductive, as it<br>
comes with a heightened risk of price spikes and market volatility.
In practice, no one<br>
committed to change should wait for someone else to move first.
Successful, orderly<br>
transitions are collaborative ones, in which suppliers work with
consumers and governments<br>
to expand new markets for low-emissions products and services.<br>
<br>
<b>The second is excessive expectations and reliance on CCUS</b>.
Carbon capture, utilisation and<br>
storage is an essential technology for achieving net zero emissions
in certain sectors and<br>
circumstances, but it is not a way to retain the status quo. If oil
and natural gas consumption<br>
were to evolve as projected under today’s policy settings, this
would require an<br>
inconceivable 32 billion tonnes of carbon captured for utilisation
or storage by 2050,<br>
including 23 billion tonnes via direct air capture to limit the
temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The<br>
necessary carbon capture technologies would require 26 000 terawatt
hours of electricity<br>
generation to operate in 2050, which is more than global electricity
demand in 2022. And it<br>
would require over USD 3.5 trillion in annual investments all the
way from today through to<br>
mid-century, which is an amount equal to the entire industry’s
annual average revenue in<br>
recent years.<br>
<br>
<b>Producer economies face major uncertainties, but their energy
advantages<br>
are not lost in transition</b><br>
Economies that are heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues face some
stark choices and<br>
pressures in energy transitions. These choices are not new, but the
prospect of falling oil<br>
and gas demand adds a timeline and a deadline to the process of
economic diversification.<br>
Transitions create powerful incentives to accelerate the pace of
change while also draining a<br>
source of revenue that could finance it. Compared with the annual
average between 2010<br>
and 2022, per capita net income from oil and natural gas among
producer economies is 60%<br>
lower in 2030 in a 1.5 °C scenario. New producers entering the
market face additional<br>
challenges, as they may overestimate the bounty that might lie ahead
and underestimate <br>
the hazards. Many producers are also heavily exposed to risks from a
changing climate, which<br>
stand to further disrupt the security of energy supply.<br>
<br>
<b>The challenges are formidable, but there are workable net zero
energy strategies available</b><br>
<b>to producer economies and national oil companies</b>. Today’s
producer economies retain<br>
energy advantages even as the world moves away from fossil fuels. In
most cases, today’s<br>
major producers of low-cost hydrocarbons also have expertise and
ample, under-utilised<br>
renewable energy resources that could anchor positions in clean
energy value chains and<br>
low-emissions industries. Reducing emissions from traditional
supplies, including end-use<br>
emissions; putting domestic energy systems on a cleaner footing by
phasing out inefficient<br>
subsidies and boosting clean energy deployment; and developing
low-emissions products<br>
and services offer a way forward.<br>
<br>
<b>Will the oil and gas industry be part of the solution?</b><br>
<b>Our scenarios plot out how the transition could be achieved, but
the baseline expectation</b><br>
<b>should be for a volatile and bumpy ride. </b>Declining markets
are difficult to plan for, and the<br>
potential for disruption also comes from geopolitical tensions and
increased incidences of<br>
extreme weather. Governments need to be vigilant for risks to the
affordability and security<br>
of supply. The implications of any physical disruptions to supply
are felt most strongly in<br>
emerging and developing economies in Asia, whose share of global
crude oil imports rises<br>
from 40% today to 60% in 2050 in a scenario that meets national
energy and climate goals.<br>
On the supply side, even as overall demand falls back, the Middle
East plays an outsize role<br>
in global markets as a low-cost producer of both oil and gas.<br>
<br>
<b>Dialogue across all parts of oil and gas value chains remains
essential to deliver an orderly</b><br>
<b>shift away from fossil fuels – and to ensure that today’s
producers have a meaningful stake</b><br>
<b>in the clean energy economy. </b>The industry must change, but
this dialogue also needs clear<br>
signals from consumers on the direction and speed of travel to guide
investment decisions,<br>
to assign value to oil and gas with lower emissions intensities, to
develop markets for lowemissions fuels, and to collaborate on
technology innovation. Energy transitions can happen<br>
without the engagement of the oil and gas industry, but the j<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a6e9b926-2349-4bee-856e-4997aab5399f/">https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a6e9b926-2349-4bee-856e-4997aab5399f/</a>
TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdf<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ CBS reports - rise risk next 20 years ]</i><br>
<b>More than 70 million people face increased threats from sea level
rise worldwide</b><br>
BY DAVID SCHECHTER, CHANCE HORNER, HALEY RUSH, DILCIA MERCEDES,
LAURA GELLER<br>
UPDATED: DECEMBER 8, 2023 / CBS NEWS<br>
In coastal communities across the U.S., new data shows land that's
home to more than 260,000 Americans is at risk of increased flooding
over the next 20 years. The number of people at risk worldwide is
projected to grow five-fold by the end of the century if nations
continue their current course of global greenhouse gas emissions,
according to the Human Climate Horizons, a collaboration between the
United Nations Development Programme and the Climate Impact Lab. <br>
<br>
The new information shows increased coastal flooding this century
will put over 70 million people around the globe in the path of
expanding floodplains. <br>
<br>
CBS News traveled to the world's northernmost and fastest-warming
community of Svalbard, Norway, because what scientists are learning
there can help Americans understand the changes happening in the
United States. As the Arctic warms, it adds to rising sea levels
along our coasts and instability in the atmosphere that contributes
to our extreme weather events.<br>
<br>
"The effects of rising sea levels will put at risk decades of human
development progress in densely populated coastal zones, which are
home to one in seven people in the world," said Pedro Conceição,
director of UNDP's Human Development Report Office.<br>
<br>
<b>Increased flooding risk</b><br>
This chart shows the percentage of population in each city who live
in areas susceptible to increased flooding due to climate change
over the next 20 years.<br>
<blockquote>New Orleans 1.38%<br>
Virginia Beach 1.31%<br>
Miami 0.41%<br>
Queens, NY 0.36%<br>
Tampa 0.31%<br>
</blockquote>
The data finds the most extreme risks of lost land and critical
infrastructure worldwide will be in Latin America, the Caribbean,
the Pacific and small island states — including hundreds of highly
populated cities like Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Sydney, Australia.<br>
<br>
"These projections are not foregone conclusions; instead, they can
be a catalyst for action," said Hannah Hess, associate director at
the Climate Impact Lab, a collaborative group of scientists and
researchers who measures the real-world costs of climate change.
"Swift and sustained action to reduce emissions will affect how
quickly and how much coastal communities are impacted."<br>
<br>
Carbon dioxide emissions from cars and factories are the primary
driver of climate change. They warm the planet, melt glaciers and
ice sheets and raise sea levels.<br>
<br>
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic"<br>
42% of sea level rise comes from warming ocean water, which expands
as the temperature increases; 21% comes from melting glaciers around
the world; and 23% comes from the melting ice sheets in Greenland
and Antarctica, according to WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group.<br>
<br>
As a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
U.S. sea level rise projections anticipate 10-14 inches of rise on
the East Coast, 14-18 inches on the Gulf Coast and 4-8 inches on the
West Coast over the next 30 years.<br>
<br>
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," said Jack
Kohler, a glaciologist with the Norwegian Polar Institute.<br>
<br>
Kohler studies the melting glaciers of Svalbard, which is a group of
islands near the North Pole.<br>
<br>
"If you live in Florida, you're seeing the effect of sea level rise
already," he said. "There's plenty of pictures of very high tides,
which are not caused by any storms or anything, and this is because
sea level is inexorably rising."<br>
<br>
The new data also finds that many low-lying, coastal regions in
Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia may face permanent
inundation, which the UNDP said is part of an alarming trend that
could negatively impact economic progress in less-developed parts of
the world.<br>
<br>
According to the new data, climate change is expected to submerge a
significant share of land in the Bahamas, British Virgin Islands,
Cayman Islands, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Turks and Caicos, Tuvalu
and Seychelles by 2100.<br>
<br>
"I have colleagues all over the globe who are doing similar things
and they're all seeing the same thing," Kohler said about measuring
the melting glaciers that are fueling sea level rise...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/increased-threats-of-sea-level-rise-worldwide/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/increased-threats-of-sea-level-rise-worldwide/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - early record of a
"Could'a, Would'a, Should'a" moment ] </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>December 11, 1985 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> December 11, 1985: The New York Times
reports:<br>
<blockquote>"A group of senators and scientists today called for
national and international action to avert a predicted warming of
the earth's climate resulting from a buildup of carbon dioxide and
other man-made gases in the atmosphere.<br>
"They warned at a Senate hearing that such an effect, like that of
a greenhouse, would produce radical climate changes and a
subsequent rise in ocean levels that could have catastrophic
results in the next century unless steps were taken now to deal
with the problem.<br>
<br>
"Senator Albert Gore Jr., Democrat of Tennessee, said he would
introduce legislation to expand and focus scientific efforts on
this greenhouse effect.<br>
<br>
"At a hearing of the Senate Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and
Environmental Oversight, Mr. Gore said his bill would call for 'an
international year of scientific study of the greenhouse effect
and would request that the President take steps to begin this
worldwide cooperative investigation.'"<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/11/us/action-is-urged-to-avert-global-climate-shift.html">http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/11/us/action-is-urged-to-avert-global-climate-shift.html</a>
<br>
<br>
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