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<p><font size="+2"><font face="Calibri"><i><b>December 16</b></i></font></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>, 2023</b></i></font></p>
<i>[ This year -- this is the hottest year ever for humans ]</i><br>
<b>NOAA: Almost 100 percent chance 2023 will be hottest year
recorded</b><br>
BY LAUREN IRWIN - 12/15/23 1<br>
There is almost a 100 percent chance that 2023 will be the hottest
year ever recorded, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) announced...<br>
- -<br>
According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information,
there is a “greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank as Earth’s
warmest year on record.”<br>
The previous record-breaking year was in 2016, but 2023 was
“considerably warmer,” by .20 degrees Fahrenheit...<br>
Forecasters are predicting an El Niño climate pattern, meaning
periods of above-average ocean surface temperature, heading into the
spring. The planet has been experiencing a La Niña cold phase since
2020.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4362127-noaa-almost-100-percent-chance-2023-hottest-year-recorded/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4362127-noaa-almost-100-percent-chance-2023-hottest-year-recorded/</a><br>
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</i></p>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<p><i>[ Starting with Lancaster California - a positive documentary
of actions taken ]</i><br>
<b>Global renewables: Pioneering the energy transition | DW
Documentary</b><br>
Dec 1, 2023 #dwdocumentary #documentary<br>
We are facing the greatest upheaval since industrialization. To
stop climate change, the energy system must be transformed
worldwide. Very little time remains to accomplish this. But there
are places where this renewable future has already arrived.<br>
<br>
The documentary explores the question of what needs to happen in
terms of politics, policies, and society to implement what is
technically possible, when it comes to renewable energy. To do
this, the film visits two completely different places. One is in
the US and the other, in Bavaria. These localities have two things
in common: Both have completely converted their energy supply to
renewables and as a result, both now have more money in their
coffers today than before.<br>
<br>
The documentary provides a global overview of the solutions that
already exist for a worldwide energy transition. And it asks what
challenges still need to be overcome -- not only in the
laboratories and power plants, but also among the movers and
shakers who must drive the change today.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVf2Yw7uFoE"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVf2Yw7uFoE</a><br>
</p>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ newer documentary from DW ]</i><br>
<b>Part 1: Will renewables stop the climate crisis? </b><br>
Dec 1, 2023 #dwdocumentary #documentary<br>
Mankind is facing the greatest upheaval since industrialization. To
stop climate change, the energy system must be transformed worldwide
and fossil fuels must be completely replaced. But is this even
possible?<br>
<br>
Time is running out. If climate targets are still to be met and the
survival of future generations is to be ensured, virtually all
fossil energy sources worldwide will have to be replaced by
renewables by 2050. That leaves us with almost exactly one
generation from today to make this massive change. So what needs to
happen for the global energy transition to succeed?<br>
<br>
Part 1 of this two-part documentary looks at the question of whether
it’s even possible to provide enough green energy for the whole
world. How can the oil economy be replaced? The film travels to
places that could one day become the Saudi Arabia of renewable
energies. For example, gigantic offshore wind farms in the North
Sea, or the most modern solar fields in Spain. One day, these
regions will supply all of Europe with electricity.<br>
<br>
However, the globally increasing demand for energy must be met in
ways that are both sustainable and affordable. Researchers at the
Technical University of Ilmenau in Thuringia are working with a team
from the California Institute of Technology on high-tech materials
that will make renewable energies more efficient and less expensive
than their fossil fuel predecessors. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7vUppYPC8&t=0s"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7vUppYPC8&t=0s</a>
<p>- -</p>
[Part 2: 42 min video ] <br>
<b>Global renewables: Pioneering the energy transition | DW
Documentary</b><br>
DW Documentary<br>
Dec 1, 2023 #dwdocumentary #documentary<br>
We are facing the greatest upheaval since industrialization. To stop
climate change, the energy system must be transformed worldwide.
Very little time remains to accomplish this. But there are places
where this renewable future has already arrived.<br>
<br>
The documentary explores the question of what needs to happen in
terms of politics, policies, and society to implement what is
technically possible, when it comes to renewable energy. To do this,
the film visits two completely different places. One is in the US
and the other, in Bavaria. These localities have two things in
common: Both have completely converted their energy supply to
renewables and as a result, both now have more money in their
coffers today than before.<br>
<br>
The documentary provides a global overview of the solutions that
already exist for a worldwide energy transition. And it asks what
challenges still need to be overcome -- not only in the laboratories
and power plants, but also among the movers and shakers who must
drive the change today.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVf2Yw7uFoE"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVf2Yw7uFoE</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[ YaleClimateConnections ]<br>
<b>How will El Niño affect the U.S. this winter?</b><br>
Strong El Niño events like this one have classic calling cards, but
surprises still happen — especially on a warming planet.<br>
by BOB HENSON<br>
DECEMBER 12, 2023<br>
The most potent El Niño event in almost a decade is about to exert
its peak influence on North American weather. Many parts of the
world are affected by El Niño, a periodic one- to two-year warming
of the eastern tropical Pacific. In fact, El Niño is the biggest
single shaper of Earth’s year-to-year weather variations atop
human-induced climate change. And North America is one of the places
where El Niño’s influence is most pronounced.<br>
Think of El Niño as the boisterous guest around which people gather,
or scatter, during the course of a holiday party. For a few months
to a year or longer, unusually warm water spreads across a vast area
centered on the equator, extending from South America westward. In
Spanish, the phenomenon’s name refers to “the Christ child”
(literally, the male infant). The name arose because of timing:
Anchovy fishers had long noticed that the waters off Peru sometimes
warmed, and their catches declined, during the weeks on either side
of Christmas.<br>
<br>
What kicks off El Niño is complex and not fully understood, but the
strongest events tend to unfold in a familiar way. Westerly winds
increase across the tropical Pacific, blunting or even reversing the
usual east-to-west trade winds. In tandem, warm water is pushed
eastward toward areas off the South American coast that are
typically dominated by cold upwelling currents. The unusually warm
sea surface and the westerly winds interact with each other, helping
to stimulate rising air and heavy rain across a broad area.<br>
<br>
The more far-flung impacts arise as the atmosphere adjusts to this
huge zone of rising air, just as people get rearranged when a
gregarious party guest arrives. Sinking air on either side of El
Niño typically spawns drought and an enhanced fire threat across
Indonesia and northeast Brazil. More complex interactions happen in
the northern midlatitudes, including North America. Typically in
winter during a moderate to strong El Niño, the subtropical branch
of the jet stream intensifies across the Sun Belt, giving places
from Southern California to Florida higher odds of a wet winter
(including an enhanced tornado threat across Florida). Meanwhile,
the polar jet stream tends to retreat into Canada, reducing the
number and strength of polar intrusions and favoring relatively mild
and dry winter conditions across the northern U.S. and southern
Canada. (See the recent ENSO Blog post by Nate Johnson for more
detail on how El Niño helps shape U.S. winter precipitation.)<br>
<br>
Every El Niño event is different, and not every classic feature is
guaranteed to occur each time. Let’s take a look at some potential
outcomes weather watchers are now paying close attention to...<br>
- -<br>
Looking further out: Odds are rising for a La Niña event (a cooling
of the eastern tropical Pacific) to take hold by the latter part of
2024. Cooler-than-average water is gradually expanding beneath the
western equatorial Pacific, and seasonal forecast tools such as the
North American Multi-Model Ensemble are increasingly leaning toward
La Niña by late 2024. Climatology is pointing the same way: Five of
the six El Niño events since 1950 that registered as strong in the
autumn (meaning an Oceanic Niño Index of at least 1.5 when averaged
across the three autumn months, as was the case this year) were
followed by La Niña events in the next autumn. Such a sequence would
hike the odds of yet another active Atlantic hurricane season.<br>
<br>
Jeff Masters contributed to this post. Website visitors can comment
on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see comments policy below). Sign up to
receive notices of new postings here.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/12/how-will-el-nino-affect-the-u-s-this-winter"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/12/how-will-el-nino-affect-the-u-s-this-winter</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ See for ourselves the bold graphics weather map - above normal
everywhere ]</i><br>
<b>8 to 14 Day Outlooks</b><br>
Valid: December 22 to 28, 2023<br>
Updated: 14 Dec 2023<br>
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps<br>
Temperature Precipitation<br>
...archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical
analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day
outlooks<br>
Archives Analogs Lines-Only Format GIS Data<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - COPs talks of almost a
decade ago - pressed for 3.6 degrees limit]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>December 16, 2014 </b></i></font></font><font
face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
December 16, 2014:<br>
In the New York Times, Justin Gillis observes:<br>
<blockquote>"After two weeks of grinding meetings in Lima, Peru, the
world’s climate negotiators emerged this weekend with a deal. They
settled on preliminary language, to be finalized a year from now
in Paris, meant to help keep the long-term warming of the planet
below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.<br>
<br>
"That upper boundary was first settled on four years ago at
another round of talks in Cancun, Mexico. On the centigrade scale,
it equals two degrees above the global average temperature at the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution... <br>
<br>
"Yet even as the 2C target has become a touchstone for the climate
talks, scientific theory and real-world observations have begun to
raise serious questions about whether the target is stringent
enough."...<br>
- -<br>
The warming that has already occurred is causing enormous damage
all over the planet, from dying forests to collapsing sea ice to
savage heat waves to torrential rains. And scientists realize they
may have underestimated the vulnerability of the ice sheets in
Greenland and Antarctica.<br>
<br>
Those ice sheets now appear to be in the early stages of breaking
up. For instance, Greenland’s glaciers have lately been spitting
icebergs into the sea at an accelerated pace, and scientific
papers published this year warned that the melting in parts of
Antarctica may already be unstoppable...<br>
- -<br>
“The climate is now out of equilibrium with the ice sheets,” said
Andrea Dutton, a geochemist at the University of Florida who
studies global sea levels. “They are going to melt.”<br>
<br>
That could ultimately mean 30 feet, or even more, of sea level
rise, though scientists have no clear idea of how fast that could
happen. They hope it would take thousands of years, but cannot
rule out a faster rise that might overwhelm the ability of human
society to adapt...<br>
- -<br>
So, even as the world’s climate policy diplomats work on a plan
that incorporates the 2C goal, they have enlisted scientists in a
major review of whether it is strict enough. Results are due this
summer, and if the reviewers recommend a lower target, that could
add a contentious dimension to the climate negotiations in Paris
next year.<br>
<br>
Barring a technological miracle, or a mobilization of society on a
scale unprecedented in peacetime, it is not at all clear how a
lower target could be met.<br>
<br>
Some experts think a stricter target could even backfire. If 2C
already seems hard to achieve, with the world on track for levels
of warming far beyond that, setting a tighter limit might prompt
political leaders to throw up their hands in frustration.<br>
<br>
In practice, moreover, a tighter temperature limit would not alter
the advice that scientists have been giving to politicians for
decades about cutting emissions. Their recommendation is simple
and blunt: Get going now.<br>
<br>
“Dealing with this is a little bit like saving for retirement,”
said Richard B. Alley, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State
University. “All delay is costly, but it helps whenever you
start.”<br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/science/earth/is-a-two-degree-limit-on-global-warming-off-target.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/science/earth/is-a-two-degree-limit-on-global-warming-off-target.html</a><br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/science/earth/is-a-two-degree-limit-on-global-warming-off-target.html?unlocked_article_code=1.GU0.9_Rf.zdu4ZrFW4bM0&smid=url-share">https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/science/earth/is-a-two-degree-limit-on-global-warming-off-target.html?unlocked_article_code=1.GU0.9_Rf.zdu4ZrFW4bM0&smid=url-share</a><br>
<br>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri"><br>
=== Other climate news sources
===========================================<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>*Inside Climate News</b><br>
Newsletters<br>
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href="https://insideclimatenews.org/" moz-do-not-send="true">https://insideclimatenews.org/</a><br>
--------------------------------------- <br>
*<b>Climate Nexus</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News
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day, delivering an unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant
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remain largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
================================= <br>
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Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon
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the peer-reviewed journals. <br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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