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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>January</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 7, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ Rude interviewers from KIRO radio - </i><i>Click link for
audio. </i><i>]</i><br>
<b>Exclusive: Gov. Jay Inslee doubles down on the Climate Commitment
Act despite high gas prices</b><br>
Jan 5, 2024<br>
BY BILL KACZARABA<br>
MyNorthwest Content Editor<br>
Gov. Jay Inslee spoke with KIRO Newsradio’s Colleen O’Brien Friday
morning on Seattle’s Morning News and continued to defend the
Climate Commitment Act and the high gas prices in Washington State.<br>
<br>
Listen to the entire interview:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://shows.audiocdn.com/s/bonneville/highlights-seattles-morn-d4b6b7/gov-jay-inslee-defends-c-ba6dc8">https://shows.audiocdn.com/s/bonneville/highlights-seattles-morn-d4b6b7/gov-jay-inslee-defends-c-ba6dc8</a>
<br>
From KIRO Newsradio’s Seattle’s Morning News, here is the full
transcript:<br>
<blockquote><b>Colleen O’Brien: </b>Joining us live now is Governor
Jay Inslee ahead of his trip to Clark County today, the governor
is talking about a new Criminal Justice Training Commission center
opening there, something needed in our state to bolster
recruitment efforts, plus a solar facility, new affordable
housing. We want to talk about that, but Governor, I have to start
with the exchange you had with reporters yesterday regarding
evidence that emerged that multiple analysts knew and informed you
and lawmakers about the impact on gas prices from the Climate
Commitment Act. We heard you yesterday denying that this evidence
was valid, despite the analysts being spot on and prices showing
it is up 40 to 45 cents a gallon. That’s exactly what happened.
How do you respond to that today?<br>
<br>
<b>Gov. Jay</b> Inslee: Well, first off, we would be pleased
prices have come down almost a dollar.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen</b>: On a national average.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee: </b>It has come down has come down about $1. So that’s
good news.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen: </b>Our prices are still higher here in our state.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee:</b> Unfortunately, our prices have aways been higher on
the West Coast of the United States, in Oregon and Idaho. That has
always been the case, and Oregon, Washington, and California have
always been in the top five or six nationally. And we ought to now
continue this effort to drive down pollution, the oil companies
want to be able to pollute in infinite amounts, which are harming
the health of our children. And we cannot allow infinite
pollution, we’ve got to have a cap on the amount of pollution. We
also have to get to transparency. So, we really know about
potential gouging by the oil industry. This is an industry that
wants to continue to make $200 billion of profits while whipsawing
us on their prices. And then polluting in increasing amounts. We
can’t accept that, and we aren’t going to go backward to allow
more pollution. You know, there’s a study just the other day that
found 16 communities in Washington started with Ellsberg that have
a reduction of life of two and a half years as a result of the
pollution from this industry. So we are going to continue our
effort to restrain pollution. And we’re going to use the dollars
generated by this to really help Washingtonians. One of the things
I’m going to Vancouver for today is to look at a community solar
installation, I believe, to really help people get access to
cheaper electricity to get solar panels for their houses.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen: </b>Nobody’s denying that solar energy is good for
us, that we don’t want pollution, and that pollution is bad for
our health. Nobody is arguing that everybody sees prices going
down on the national front. But we’re looking at the data right in
front of us. In fact, Chris Sullivan has the data on gas prices
and surrounding states. What I want you to focus on, though, is
the Climate Commitment Act. This was your Climate Commitment Act.
We’re not talking about solar facilities, we’re not talking about
pollution impacts, or we’re talking about the impact of the
Climate Commitment Act on gas prices. And that Washingtonians are
really struggling, governor.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee:</b> So let me finish the sentence here for a second so
we can have an honest discussion here. We are talking about those
who want to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, which would
eliminate the help we’re giving to Washingtonians to deal with
these high prices, including a proposal we have made to help 2
million Washingtonians with their utility bills by using the
funds. And, in fact, unfortunately, there are those who are, in
fact, trying to eliminate that stream of funding that is helping
so many people get their utility bills lower, and unfortunately,
there are those who want to pollute in infinite amounts. And it’s
unfortunate, but that is the truth. So I’m we’re gonna go down and
celebrate some good news down in Clark County about moving forward
against climate change. I’m proud of our state, we are leading the
country on it, we’re going to continue. We’re also going to go
down today and celebrate this new criminal justice training
center. We need more officers on the street. And what we’ve done
is to have two new criminal justice training centers, which really
helps our recruiting so that people can get trained closer to
where they live. I’ve also proposed a $10 million fund to help
local communities hire more police officers as well. I’m hoping
the legislature will fund 80 new positions with the State Patrol.
This is something that’s needed. And we want to celebrate that
today.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen:</b> Absolutely something that’s needed in the state.
Now, the initiative to repeal the Climate Commitment Act is likely
a reaction to the fact that you told and we have you on record
saying prices would go up just pennies if anything, and you said,
in fact, gas prices might lower, and that has turned out to be not
true. Governor, I won’t call it a lie because we don’t know your
intent, but it’s not true. What would it cost you politically to
just admit the Climate Commitment Act did increase gas prices more
than you said it would. Consumers are hurting, and they want to
see it go away.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee: </b>So they don’t want to see it go away. And I’ll
tell you why they want to have cleaner air, and they don’t want to
have infinite pollution. This bill fundamentally caps the amount
of pollution our kids are breathing. We have an epidemic of asthma
in our in our state. We have forest fires burning down whole
towns. And I do believe Washingtonians want to restrain pollution.
I also think they want to have transparency about the oil company
profits that people are making. And they don’t want to be
whipsawed by this. That’s one of the reasons we want to link our
market with California and Quebec, so that we can restraint,
restraint, some of the compliance costs that companies do have, I
think that can be a salutary impact look like a part of our
college, he made honest, good faith efforts trying to predict what
the oil companies would do. But they control it, they whipsaw us,
we don’t control those prices. They raised prices more than the
ecology company department predicted based on the information they
had at that time in California. That was a good-faith effort. And
now we’re making big investments to help Washingtonians get
cheaper, more reliable, and cleaner energy. And I hope we will
continue on that path.<br>
<br>
<b>Chris Sullivan, Senior Transportation Reporter: </b>Governor,
you talk about the transparency. One thing that I think confuses a
lot of people is perhaps the perspective you talk about the
whipsawing and the gouging of these evil oil companies. Why does
that not extend past Washington’s borders? Why are they not
gouging the same amount in Idaho and Washington? Why is Oregon’s
price 70 cents cheaper than Washington’s today? Idaho’s 94 cents?
Why does the gouging only seem to impact Washington?<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee:</b> Well, to start, if you look back, roll back the
tape. West Coast states have always been in the top five of gas
prices in the United States.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen: </b>But not by $1. Between them. Well, it’s not $1. I
haven’t looked, it is $1. Today, between Idaho and 76 cents in
Oregon, it’s never been that much.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee: </b>It has been significant differences. The
Department of Ecology told people there would be some costs
associated with this. It’s probably not in the range of the
dollar. I disagree with that assessment.<br>
<br>
<b>Sully: </b>Well, I’ve paid it driving back and forth between
Montana almost every weekend this last couple of months. You go
across the Idaho border Boom, 80 to 90 cents cheaper. That’s a
fact in the case.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee: </b>Well enough to look at the graphs that I have.<br>
<br>
<b>Sully:</b> I have the graphs in front of me.<br>
<br>
<b>Inslee: </b>I can tell you this: we should not allow this
pollution, this pollution in infinite amounts, number one, number
two, we should have a law in this state which insists on
transparency of the oil companies to find out why they are making
profits of $200 billion while their whipsawing us on these, and we
should do that, and I hope that the legislature will pass that
this year and continue and not cut off the funds that are helping,
including our transportation. Look, we have a transportation
problem. We have problems with our ferries. And if this bill is
eliminated, it will blow a $1 billion hole in our ability to
continue to build this state. I do not believe that’s the route we
should go. This is helping us build our state, and I think we
should continue to do that. With that, I’m gonna have to excuse
myself because I’ve got to get on the road. But I look forward to
their conversation.<br>
<br>
<b>Colleen: </b>Governor Jay Inslee, we do appreciate you joining
us and talking about the Climate Commitment Act. If the reaction
on our text line says anything. It’s gonna be a tough fight
against that initiative this year. I’m looking forward to a good
discussion. Thank you, governor of our state. Thanks a lot.<br>
<br>
This interview has been edited slightly for grammar and clarity.<br>
<br>
Seattle’s Morning News is on KIRO Newsradio weekdays from 5-9 a.m.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://mynorthwest.com/3945399/exclusive-gov-jay-inslee-doubles-down-on-the-climate-commitment-act-despite-high-gas-prices/">https://mynorthwest.com/3945399/exclusive-gov-jay-inslee-doubles-down-on-the-climate-commitment-act-despite-high-gas-prices/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Phase Out from RealClimate - the scientifically top site on the
Internet ]</i><br>
<b>RealClimate</b><br>
Climate science from climate scientists...<br>
Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO<br>
5 JAN 2024 BY GAVIN<br>
For the last few years (since at least 2016), I’ve shared
predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature
(GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO
at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite
skillful compared to persistence or just the long term trend alone –
the eventual anomaly was consistently within the predicted bounds.
Until 2023.<br>
<br>
As described in my original post on 538, I take a loess smooth for
the GISTEMP long term trend (using roughly 20 year smoothing) and
add a term based on the linear regression of the beginning of the
year Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI2) (similar to Nino34) to the
detrended anomalies (not including some big volcanic years). This
makes sense since, historically, the interannual variations in GMSAT
were largest in the first half of the year and dominated by the
phase of ENSO (El Niño or La Niña). This pattern was important for
recent record or near-record years like 2016 or 2020 which started
with El Niño, as well as below-trend years like 2017, 2021 etc. that
started with La Niña. The development of the ENSO phase in the
latter part of the year (which peaks around December/January)
generally has less of an impact because of the lag of ~3 months or
so of its affect on global temperatures.<br>
<br>
There are two main sources of uncertainty in this method, the
variation of temperature not related to the prior ENSO, and the
uncertainty in the DJF ENSO index from the Dec predictions. Thus the
true prediction (made around Jan 1), is slightly more uncertain than
the retrodiction (which knows the actual DJF ENSO value). As
mentioned above, this technique has historically been quite
skillful:<br>
- -<br>
The RMS forecast error (not including 2023), is 0.07ºC, compared to
0.10ºC for persistence or smoothed trends. This year however was
noticeably warmer than the prediction or retrodiction based only on
DJF ENSO at the beginning of the year (which you will recall was a
slight La Niña), falling well above the 95% CI.<br>
- -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/images/gistemp_pred538_2024-1536x1536.png">https://www.realclimate.org/images/gistemp_pred538_2024-1536x1536.png</a><br>
This could be due to a real anomaly in the interannual variability
that was outside the 95% expectation, a mis-specification in the
statistical model (e.g. we could have included an autumnal ENSO
state as an additional predictor, or taken predicted forcings
(solar, aerosols, volcanoes) into account), or something extra that
we just haven’t seen before.<br>
<br>
But how are we going to find out? What happens in 2024 will be
important. Does it go back to being predictable based on ENSO (in
which case 2024 is expected to just be a little warmer than 2023),
or does the positive anomaly persist? We will also be seeing more
comprehensive estimates of the impact of the Hunga-Tonga eruption,
and also of the impacts of the decreases in marine shipping
emissions. It might be that the initial estimates of their impacts
were underestimated. We will also see more in depth explorations of
the spring to fall anomalies in the North Atlantic/North Pacific
which contributed strongly to the temperature changes, but aren’t
obviously related to El Niño.<br>
<br>
If nothing else, 2023 reminds us that the climate system still has
surprises for us, and that this would be a very bad time to our eyes
off the ball.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hq5Sjs-syu0">https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hq5Sjs-syu0</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/01/annual-gmsat-predictions-and-enso/">https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/01/annual-gmsat-predictions-and-enso/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ A retrodiction in Wikipedia ]</i><br>
A <b>retrodiction</b> occurs when already gathered data is
accounted for by a later theoretical advance in a more convincing
fashion. The advantage of a retrodiction over a prediction is that
the already gathered data is more likely to be free of experimenter
bias. An example of a retrodiction is the perihelion shift of
Mercury which Newtonian mechanics plus gravity was unable, totally,
to account for whilst Einstein's general relativity made short work
of it.[5]<br>
<br>
Another use refers to a process by which one attempts to test a
theory whose predictions are too long-term to be tested by waiting
for a future event to occur. Instead, one speculates about uncertain
events in the more distant past, and applies the theory to consider
how it would have predicted a known event in the less distant past.
This is useful in, for example, the fields of archaeology,
climatology, evolutionary biology, financial analysis, forensic
science, and cosmology.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrodiction">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrodiction</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Data trends ]</i><b><i> </i><br>
Google searches for climate refugee up 15% in past week <br>
</b>Worldwide-Thursday, December 28, 2023 - Wednesday, January 3,
2024<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=climate%20refugee">https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=climate%20refugee</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[Talking Climate with Katharine Hayhoe ]</i><br>
<b>The science is clear: to stabilize climate, we have to phase out
fossil fuels.</b><br>
Katharine Hayhoe<br>
Dec 11<br>
Yet in the latest draft of the COP28 Global Stocktake, that phrase
has been removed. Instead, it calls for "abatement" of coal and
"reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels" -- and
that's not enough.<br>
<br>
For that reason, I've joined over 2000 CEOs, investors, NGOs, health
professionals, scientists, academics, youth, faith leaders to sign
this letter, which calls for:<br>
<blockquote>1. An orderly phase out of all fossil fuels in a just
& equitable way<br>
<br>
2. A price on carbon and tripling investments for renewable energy<br>
<br>
3. A halt and reversal of deforestation, land degradation &
other ecosystem loss by 2030; safeguarding the territories of
indigenous peoples; ensuring resilient food systems; and a strong
global goal on adaptation<br>
</blockquote>
Together, we stand in support behind all countries in delivering a
1.5°C aligned plan which will ensure the safety and health of our
planet for future generations.<br>
<br>
It’s time for world leaders to prove which side of history they are
on--because #LaterisTooLate.<br>
youtube.com/shorts/hq5Sjs-syu0<br>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://substack.com/@katharinehayhoe/note/c-45230172?utm_source=feed-email-digest">https://substack.com/@katharinehayhoe/note/c-45230172?utm_source=feed-email-digest</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - Dr Hansen early
statements more than 40 years ago ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>January 7, 1982 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> January 7, 1982: The New York Times
reports:<br>
<blockquote>"Mankind's activities in increasing the amount of carbon
dioxide and other chemicals in the atmosphere can be expected to
have a substantial warming effect on climate, with the first clear
signs of the trend becoming evident within this decade, a
scientist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
said here today.<br>
<br>
"The changes are in prospect because of excess carbon dioxide put
into the atmosphere as humans burn coal, gas, oil and wood and cut
forests for agriculture and other purposes. More recently there
has also been an atmospheric buildup of methane, nitrous oxide and
other chemicals as a result of agriculture and industry, said Dr.
James Hansen of the space agency's Goddard Institute for Space
Studies in New York.<br>
<br>
"Dr. Hansen spoke at a session of the annual meeting of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science here and
amplified some of his remarks at a news conference."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/07/us/warming-of-world-s-climate-expected-to-begin-in-the-80-s.html">http://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/07/us/warming-of-world-s-climate-expected-to-begin-in-the-80-s.html</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
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