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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>January</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 26, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ TIME magazine guest</i><i> </i><i>opinion ]</i><br>
<b>Apocalyptic Optimism Could Be the Antidote for Climate Fatalism</b><br>
<i>Dana R. Fisher </i><br>
After 28 years of failed climate negotiations, scientifically
informed emissions reductions set by governments have languished.
Consequently, the pace at which the world is mitigating and adapting
to the threat of climate change is far too slow to meet the
challenge. Carbon concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise
quickly, as the ice sheets melt and climate shocks—like droughts,
floods, and heatwaves—increase in frequency and intensity.<br>
<p>Meanwhile, leadership of the climate negotiations at this late
hour has been relegated to petrostates and former fossil fuel
executives, which has helped make it impossible to agree upon, let
alone implement, policies that could save us from the worst of the
climate crisis. The writing is on the wall: the only way for
things to get better is after they get much worse. Lives will be
lost, and social conflict driven by climate migration and
competition for increasingly scarce resources will proliferate.
These look like insurmountable odds, and in many ways they are.
But there is a slim chance that we can slow climate change enough
to preserve our planet and minimize the catastrophe that is just
around the corner.</p>
<p>I call myself an apocalyptic optimist. I believe we can save
ourselves from the climate crisis that we have caused; I also
believe it will only be possible with a mass mobilization driven
by the pain and suffering of climate shocks around the world. As
the social effects of climate shocks grow in both frequency and
severity, I predict they will motivate an AnthroShift where
personal and economic risk reaches a critical threshold that leads
people to alter their behaviors and force governments and
businesses to transition aggressively away from fossil fuels. This
process requires halting all fossil fuel subsidies and stopping
all efforts to extract more fossil fuels to be burned at home or
exported for use abroad. Such AnthroShifts can open up windows of
opportunity for innovative social change—but only, as I have
discussed in detail elsewhere, if the risks are both severe and
durable.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic offers a recent example of an AnthroShift
where risk durability was too low for the social changes to be
sustained long term. In spring 2020, we changed our behaviors
overnight to limit the transmission of the coronavirus and flatten
the curve. We wore masks, we homeschooled our kids, we disinfected
our groceries, we accepted not seeing family for holidays, and we
even made our own bread. The social changes were so notable, in
fact, that climate activist Greta Thunberg shrewdly observed early
in the pandemic: “The coronavirus is a terrible event…. But it
also shows one thing: That once we are in a crisis…we can act fast
and change our habits and treat a crisis like a crisis.” However,
as vaccines reduced the threat of the disease, the world opened
back up. Our lives shifted back to normal (or at least close to
it), and the window of opportunity for big social change closed.</p>
The social responses to the pandemic showed us that the type of
systemic changes needed to address the climate crisis are possible.
But they also made clear that without a sustained shock that has
tangible costs to people and property, those changes will be
ephemeral and social actors will regress back to a business-as-usual
trajectory. Imagine what would have happened if COVID-19 vaccines
had not been developed or if the disease had mutated in a way that
was even more deadly.<br>
<p>There are no vaccines or any other sort of silver bullets to save
us from the climate crisis. To make matters worse, the level of
shock needed to motivate sustained social change on the climate
front is even higher than it is in a public-health context, given
the many actors with vested interests in maintaining their access
to the resources and power in our fossil-fuel-dependent economy.</p>
<p>The social responses to the pandemic showed us that the type of
systemic changes needed to address the climate crisis are
possible. But they also made clear that without a sustained shock
that has tangible costs to people and property, those changes will
be ephemeral and social actors will regress back to a
business-as-usual trajectory. Imagine what would have happened if
COVID-19 vaccines had not been developed or if the disease had
mutated in a way that was even more deadly.</p>
There are no vaccines or any other sort of silver bullets to save us
from the climate crisis. To make matters worse, the level of shock
needed to motivate sustained social change on the climate front is
even higher than it is in a public-health context, given the many
actors with vested interests in maintaining their access to the
resources and power in our fossil-fuel-dependent economy.
<p>It is possible that more confrontational activism could be more
effective, and calls for such an approach are growing. To date,
though, we are nowhere near the level of mass mobilization needed.</p>
We can look to history to see what kinds of crises have triggered
the level of drastic social changes needed to reach a tipping point
that motivates an AnthroShift that would be sufficiently wide spread
and long lasting to limit climate change: war, economic depression,
and natural disaster. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s most recent report suggests that world war and widescale
economic depression are possible consequences of climate change. The
most likely, though, is natural disaster.<br>
<p>The climate shocks to come have the potential to motivate an
AnthroShift that reorients all the sectors of society to respond
meaningfully to the climate crisis. Without them, the best we can
hope for is incremental change that does not disrupt the current
political and economic powers—and we’ve seen how effective that
has been over the last 28 years. The climate disaster that is
coming is inevitable at this point, but it may also be our only
hope for meaningful change. In the meantime, the best way through
the climate crisis is to build strong ties within our communities,
create solidarity, and cultivate social and environmental
resilience capable of supporting one another and exploiting the
windows of opportunity when the apocalypse arrives.</p>
<i>Dana R. Fisher is the director of the Center for Environment,
Community, and Equity and a professor in the School of
International Service at American University. She is the author of
a number of books, most recently Saving Ourselves: From Climate
Shocks to Climate Action.</i><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/">https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/</a><br>
<br>
<p>- -</p>
<p><i>[ New book in March ]</i><br>
<b>Saving Ourselves<br>
From Climate Shocks to Climate Action</b><br>
Dana R. Fisher<br>
PUB DATE: March 2024<br>
FORMAT: Hardcover<br>
LIST PRICE: $19.95£16.99<br>
PUB DATE: March 2024<br>
ISBN: 9780231557870<br>
<br>
Columbia University Press<br>
</p>
<p>We've known for decades that climate change is an existential
crisis. For just as long, we've seen the complete failure of our
institutions to rise to the challenge. Governments have struggled
to meet even modest goals. Fossil fuel interests maintain a
stranglehold on political and economic power. Even though we have
seen growing concern from everyday people, civil society has
succeeded only in pressuring decision makers to adopt watered-down
policies. All the while, the climate crisis worsens. Is there any
hope of achieving the systemic change we need?<br>
<br>
Dana R. Fisher argues that there is a realistic path forward for
climate action—but only through mass mobilization that responds to
the growing severity and frequency of disastrous events. She
assesses the current state of affairs and shows why public policy
and private-sector efforts have been ineffective. Spurred by this
lack of progress, climate activism has become increasingly
confrontational. Fisher examines the radical flank of the climate
movement: its emergence and growth, its use of direct action, and
how it might evolve as the climate crisis worsens. She considers
when and how activism is most successful, identifying the
importance of creating community, capitalizing on shocking
moments, and cultivating resilience. Clear-eyed yet optimistic,
Saving Ourselves offers timely insights on how social movements
can take power back from deeply entrenched interests and open
windows of opportunity for transformative climate action.<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/saving-ourselves/9780231557870">https://cup.columbia.edu/book/saving-ourselves/9780231557870</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ using climate change to predict weather changes ]</i><br>
<b>How is Climate Change Affecting The Weather Now? - Myles Allen</b><br>
Gresham College<br>
Jan 23, 2024 GRESHAM COLLEGE<br>
Enjoying our lectures? Please take a minute to answer 4 questions to
tell us what you think!<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://app.sli.do/event/1JonWUnuRtwjjMgcBM7LDQ/live/polls">https://app.sli.do/event/1JonWUnuRtwjjMgcBM7LDQ/live/polls</a><br>
<br>
Climate change is already affecting us all, regardless of where we
live, through changing risks of extreme weather events. This lecture
will take a break from global climate policy to talk about the links
between climate and weather, chaos theory and the practical tools
available to quantify changing risks.<br>
<br>
There is a lot we still don’t know – and a lot we could know, if
only governments and the insurance industry were willing to pay for
better climate risk information.<br>
<br>
This lecture was recorded by Myles Allen on 17th January 2024 at
Barnard's Inn Hall, London<br>
<br>
Myles is the Frank Jackson Foundation Professor of the Environment.<br>
<br>
He has contributed extensively to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), including as Coordinating Lead Author for the
2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. He has
published extensively on how human and natural influences on climate
contribute to observed climate change and extreme weather risk, and
the implications for adaptation and mitigation policy.<br>
<br>
The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are
available from the Gresham College website:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/weather-change">https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/weather-change</a><br>
<br>
Gresham College has offered free public lectures for over 400 years,
thanks to the generosity of our supporters. There are currently over
2,500 lectures free to access. We believe that everyone should have
the opportunity to learn from some of the greatest minds. To support
Gresham's mission, please consider making a donation: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://gresham.ac.uk/support/">https://gresham.ac.uk/support/</a><br>
<br>
Website: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://gresham.ac.uk">https://gresham.ac.uk</a><br>
Twitter: / greshamcollege <br>
Facebook: / greshamcollege <br>
Instagram: / greshamcollege <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuxcuBXyp1M">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuxcuBXyp1M</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ deeper maths used for understanding tipping points ]</i><br>
<b>Assessing Climate Tipping Points with New Math Breakthroughs in
Statistical Physics and Applied Math</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Jan 25, 2024<br>
Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough. I
chat about the key findings…<br>
<br>
“Math experts have developed new ways to provide further evidence
for human-caused global heating and predict how close Earth is to
reaching dangerous climate tipping points.”<br>
<br>
“Lead author Professor Valerio Lucarini, Professor of Statistical
Mechanics at the University of Reading, said, "Our study provides
academics and policymakers with rigorous mathematical tools needed
to understand and predict climate change, and, specifically to
detect and avoid climate tipping points resulting from human
activities. It gives us a unified perspective linking climate
variability and climate change. Our approach allows one to
seamlessly study gradual climate changes and tipping points.”<br>
<br>
“The research critically investigated 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics
winner Klaus Hasselmann's stochastic modeling approach, which
revolutionized climate change analysis. The new study refined
Hasselmann's techniques using recent tools developed within the
mathematical and physical scientific literature.”<br>
<br>
1) “Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate">https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate</a>...<br>
“Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was
to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather
processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has
led to fundamentally new ways to study the response of climate
models to perturbations, and to perform detection and attribution
for climate change signals. “<br>
<br>
“We propose a general framework for explaining the relationship
between climate variability and climate change, and for performing
climate change projections. This leads us seamlessly to explain some
key general aspects of climatic tipping points. Finally, we show
that response theory provides a solid framework supporting optimal
fingerprinting methods for detection and attribution.”<br>
<br>
2) “Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from
Hasselmann's program and beyond”: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12009">https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12009</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaF4_hn-gYc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaF4_hn-gYc</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<i>[ The Paper from Phys Org]</i><br>
<b>Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough</b><br>
by University of Reading<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2023/tipping-points-easier.jpg">https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2023/tipping-points-easier.jpg</a><br>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate-easier-math-breakthrough.html">https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate-easier-math-breakthrough.html</a></p>
<p>- - </p>
<i>[ another location for the original PDF paper ] </i><br>
<b>Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from
Hasselmann’s program and beyond</b><br>
<blockquote> Klaus Hasselmann’s revolutionary intuition in climate
science was to take advantage of the stochasticity<br>
associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics
of the climate system. This has led to<br>
fundamentally new ways to study the response of climate models to
perturbations, and to perform detection and<br>
attribution for climate change signals. Hasselmann’s program has
been extremely influential in climate science<br>
and beyond. We first summarise the main aspects of such a program
using modern concepts and tools of statistical<br>
physics and applied mathematics. We then provide an overview of
some promising scientific perspectives that<br>
might better clarify the science behind the climate crisis and
that stem from Hasselmann’s ideas. We show<br>
how to perform rigorous model reduction by constructing
parametrizations in systems that do not necessarily<br>
feature a time-scale separation between unresolved and resolved
processes. We propose a general framework for<br>
explaining the relationship between climate variability and
climate change, and for performing climate change<br>
projections. This leads us seamlessly to explain some key general
aspects of climatic tipping points. Finally, we<br>
show that response theory provides a solid framework supporting
optimal fingerprinting methods for detection<br>
and attribution<b></b><br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12009.pdf">https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12009.pdf</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>January 26, 2015 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> January 26, 2015:<br>
• The New York Times reports:<br>
<blockquote> "Alaska is not a sinking ship, but no one needed an
explanation of the gallows-humor remark, as a record-setting sea
of red ink has flooded the state budget amid a global collapse of
energy prices. Taxes paid by oilcompanies account for 90 percent
of the state’s operating budget, and those revenues have sunk with
stomach-churning suddenness and depth, echoing other oil-patch
states, like Texas, but with uniquely Alaskan scale and
implications.<br>
<br>
"The result, historians and economists say, is beyond the
experience of this state, or probably any other in modern times:
more than half of the tax base — predicated on crude oil selling
at around $110 a barrel — is simply gone in the whirlwind of $50
oil, as though it never existed. A spending plan of $6.1 billion
for 2015, passed by the Legislature last year, will fall $3.5
billion short, or more, if oil prices keep falling. Alaska
collects no state sales or income taxes to pick up the slack; a
savings fund from past oil earnings will help, but it cannot fully
fill the gap either."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/us/as-oil-falls-alaskas-new-chief-faces-a-novel-goal-frugality.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/us/as-oil-falls-alaskas-new-chief-faces-a-novel-goal-frugality.html</a><br>
<br>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><br>
=== Other climate news sources
===========================================<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>*Inside Climate News</b><br>
Newsletters<br>
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every
day or once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s
top headlines deliver the full story, for free.<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/">https://insideclimatenews.org/</a><br>
--------------------------------------- <br>
*<b>Climate Nexus</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*">https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*</a>
<br>
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News
summarizes the most important climate and energy news of the
day, delivering an unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant
reporting. It also provides original reporting and commentary on
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remain largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
================================= <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b class="moz-txt-star"><span
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class="moz-txt-star"><span class="moz-txt-tag">*</span></b> <br>
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon
Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to
thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest
of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change
and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in
the peer-reviewed journals. <br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief">https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief</a>
<br>
================================== <br>
*T<b>he Daily Climate </b>Subscribe <a
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