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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>January</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 29, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ Global human population now ~8 billion, perhaps 2.5 billion
sustainable ]</i><br>
<b>Calculated Degree of Ecological Overshoot</b><br>
Just Collapse<br>
Jan 27, 2024<br>
3 minute video of Prof. Tad Patzek calculating the scale of Earth's
ecological overshoot.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os2ah76q3Vc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os2ah76q3Vc</a><br>
<br>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ (High anxiety warning) Press release - Runaway greenhouse
effect can transform a temperate habitable planet with surface
liquid water ocean into a hot steam dominated planet hostile to
any life. ]</i><br>
<b>Exoplanets’climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to
hell</b><br>
A team from UNIGE, NCCR PlanetS and CNRS has managed to simulate the
entire runaway greenhouse effect, which can make a planet completely
unhabitable.<br>
The Earth is a wonderful blue and green dot covered with oceans and
life, while Venus is a yellowish sterile sphere that is not only
inhospitable but also sterile. However, the difference between the
two bears to only a few degrees in temperature. A team of
astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and members of the
National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) PlanetS, with the
support of the CNRS laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux, has achieved
a world’s first by managing to simulate the entirety of the runaway
greenhouse process which can transform the climate of a planet from
idyllic and perfect for life, to a place more than harsh and
hostile. The scientists have also demonstrated that from initial
stages of the process, the atmospheric structure and cloud coverage
undergo significant changes, leading to an almost-unstoppable and
very complicated to reverse runaway greenhouse effect. On Earth, a
global average temperature rise of just a few tens of degrees,
subsequent to a slight rise of the Sun’s luminosity, would be
sufficient to initiate this phenomenon and to make our planet
inhabitable. These results are published in Astronomy &
Astrophysics.<br>
<br>
The idea of a runaway of the greenhouse effect is not new. In this
scenario, a planet can evolve from a temperate state like on Earth
to a true hell, with surface temperatures above 1000°C. The cause?
Water vapor, a natural greenhouse gas. Water vapor prevents the
solar irradiation absorbed by Earth to be reemitted towards the void
of space, as thermal radiation. It traps heat a bit like a rescue
blanket. A dash of greenhouse effect is useful – without it, Earth
would have an average temperature below the freezing point of water,
looking like a ball covered with ice and hostile to life.<br>
<br>
On the opposite, too much greenhouse effect increases the
evaporation of oceans, and thus the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere. “There is a critical threshold for this amount of water
vapor, beyond which the planet cannot cool down anymore. From there,
everything gets carried away until the oceans end up getting fully
evaporated and the temperature reaches several hundred degrees,”
explains Guillaume Chaverot, former postdoctoral scholar in the
Department of Astronomy at the UNIGE Faculty of Science and main
author of the study.<br>
<br>
<b>World premiere</b><br>
<br>
“Until now, other key studies in climatology have focused solely on
either the temperate state before the runaway, or either the
inhabitable state post-runaway,” reveals Martin Turbet, researcher
at CNRS laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux, and co-author of the
study. “It is the first time a team has studied the transition
itself with a 3D global climate model, and has checked how the
climate and the atmosphere evolve during that process.”<br>
<br>
One of the key points of the study describes the appearance of a
very peculiar cloud pattern, increasing the runaway effect, and
making the process irreversible. “From the start of the transition,
we can observe some very dense clouds developing in the high
atmosphere. Actually, the latter does not display anymore the
temperature inversion characteristic of the Earth atmosphere and
separating its two main layers: the troposphere and the
stratosphere. The structure of the atmosphere is deeply altered,”
points out Guillaume Chaverot.<br>
<br>
<b>Serious consequences for the search of life elsewhere</b><br>
<br>
This discovery is a key feature for the study of climate on other
planets, and in particular on exoplanets – planets orbiting other
stars than the Sun. “By studying the climate on other planets, one
of our strongest motivations is to determine their potential to host
life,” indicates Émeline Bolmont, assistant professor and director
of the UNIGE Life in the Universe Center (LUC), and co-author of the
study.<br>
<br>
The LUC leads state-of-the-art interdisciplinary research projects
regarding the origins of life on Earth, and the quest for life
elsewhere in our solar system and beyond, in exoplanetary systems.
“After the previous studies, we suspected already the existence of a
water vapor threshold, but the appearance of this cloud pattern is a
real surprise!” discloses Émeline Bolmont. “We have also studied in
parallel how this cloud pattern could create a specific signature,
or ‘‘fingerprint’’, detectable when observing exoplanet atmospheres.
The upcoming generation of instruments should be able to detect it,”
unveils Martin Turbet. The team is also not aiming to stop there,
Guillaume Chaverot having received a research grant to continue this
study at the “Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de
Grenoble” (IPAG). This new step of the research project will focus
on the specific case of the Earth.<br>
<br>
<b>A planet Earth in a fragile equilibrium</b><br>
<br>
With their new climate models, the scientists have calculated that a
very small increase of the solar irradiation – leading to an
increase of the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of
degrees – would be enough to trigger this irreversible runaway
process on Earth and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus. One
of the current climate goals is to limit global warming on Earth,
induced by greenhouse gases, to only 1.5 degrees by 2050. One of the
questions of Guillaume Chaverot’s research grant is to determine if
greenhouse gases can trigger the runaway process as a slight
increase of the Sun luminosity might do. If so, the next question
will be to determine if the treshold temperatures are the same for
both processes.<br>
<br>
The Earth is thus not so far from this apocalyptical scenario.
“Assuming this runaway process would be started on Earth, an
evaporation of only 10 meters of the oceans’ surface would lead to a
1 bar increase of the atmospheric pressure at ground level. In just
a few hundred years, we would reach a ground temperature of over
500°C. Later, we would even reach 273 bars of surface pressure and
over 1 500°C, when all of the oceans would end up totally
evaporated,” concludes Guillaume Chaverot.<br>
<br>
<b>Exoplanets in Geneva: 25 years of expertise honored with a Nobel
Prize</b><br>
<br>
The first exoplanet was discovered in 1995 by two researchers from
the University of Geneva, Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, recipients
of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Physics. This discovery put the
University of Geneva’s Astronomy Department at the forefront of
research in the field, with the construction and installation of
HARPS on ESO’s 3.6m telescope at La Silla in 2003.<br>
<br>
For two decades, this spectrograph was the most powerful in the
world for determining the mass of exoplanets. However, HARPS was
surpassed in 2018 by ESPRESSO, another spectrograph built in Geneva
and installed on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Paranal, Chile.<br>
<br>
Switzerland is also involved in space-based observations of
exoplanets with the CHEOPS mission, the result of two national areas
of expertise: the space know-how of the University of Bern, in
collaboration with its counterpart in Geneva, and the ground-based
experience of the University of Geneva, assisted by its counterpart
in the Swiss capital. These two areas of scientific and technical
expertise have also led to the creation of the PlanetS National
Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR).<br>
<br>
<b>Life in the Universe Center (LUC): an interdisciplinary
excellence pole</b><br>
<br>
The Life in the Universe Center (LUC) is an interdisciplinary
research center of the University of Geneva (UNIGE) founded in 2021
following the awarding in 2019 of the Nobel Prize in Physics by
professors Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz. Thanks to the progress
made during the last decade, both in the domains of the solar system
exploration, of exoplanets and of the organic structure of life, the
question of the emergence of life on other planets can now be
tackled in a tangible way, and no more only speculatively. At the
crossroads of astronomy, chemistry, physics, biology and of Earth
and climate sciences, the LUC has for objective to understand the
origins and the distribution of life in the universe. At the
initiative of the Astronomy Department, the LUC brings together
researchers from numerous UNIGE institutes and departments, as well
as from several partner universities internationally.<br>
<br>
18 Dec 2023<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.unige.ch/medias/en/2023/climat-des-exoplanetes-dhabitable-infernale-un-rien-suffit">https://www.unige.ch/medias/en/2023/climat-des-exoplanetes-dhabitable-infernale-un-rien-suffit</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ first academic paper I have seen about total overshoot ]</i><br>
<b>What Climate Change on Exoplanets Tells Us About Future of Life
on Earth: Doooohhhh… Not So Good…</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Jan 28, 2024<br>
I chat about a recent peer-reviewed scientific paper studying
exoplanets that orbit other stars in other solar systems.<br>
<br>
“The Earth is a wonderful blue and green dot covered with oceans and
life, while Venus is a yellowish sterile sphere that is not only
inhospitable but also sterile. However, the difference between the
is only a few tens of degrees in temperature. A team of astronomers…
has achieved a world’s first by managing to simulate the entirety of
the runaway greenhouse process which can transform the climate of a
planet from idyllic and perfect for life, to a place more than harsh
and hostile. The scientists have also demonstrated that from initial
stages of the process, the atmospheric structure and cloud coverage
undergo significant changes, leading to an almost-unstoppable and
very complicated to reverse runaway greenhouse effect. On Earth, a
global average temperature rise of just a few tens of degrees,
subsequent to a slight rise of the Sun’s luminosity, would be
sufficient to initiate this phenomenon and to make our planet
inhabitable. These results are published in Astronomy &
Astrophysics.”<br>
<br>
“The idea of a runaway of the greenhouse effect is not new. In this
scenario, a planet can evolve from a temperate state like on Earth
to a true hell, with surface temperatures above 1000°C. The cause?
Water vapor, a natural greenhouse gas. Water vapor prevents the
solar irradiation absorbed by Earth to be reemitted towards the void
of space, as thermal radiation. It traps heat a bit like a rescue
blanket. A dash of greenhouse effect is useful – without it, Earth
would have an average temperature below the freezing point of water,
looking like a ball covered with ice and hostile to life.<br>
<br>
On the opposite, too much greenhouse effect increases the
evaporation of oceans, and thus the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere. “There is a critical threshold for this amount of water
vapor, beyond which the planet cannot cool down anymore. From there,
everything gets carried away until the oceans end up getting fully
evaporated and the temperature reaches several hundred degrees,”<br>
<br>
“One of the key points of the study describes the appearance of a
very peculiar cloud pattern, increasing the runaway effect, and
making the process irreversible. “From the start of the transition,
we can observe some very dense clouds developing in the high
atmosphere. Actually, the latter does not display anymore the
temperature inversion characteristic of the Earth atmosphere and
separating its two main layers: the troposphere and the
stratosphere. The structure of the atmosphere is deeply altered,”<br>
<br>
<b>Article:</b><br>
“Exoplanets’ climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to
hell.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.aanda.org/component/content/article/208-press-releases/2023-press-releases/2930-exoplanets-climate-it-takes-nothing-to-switch-from-habitable-to-hell">https://www.aanda.org/component/content/article/208-press-releases/2023-press-releases/2930-exoplanets-climate-it-takes-nothing-to-switch-from-habitable-to-hell</a><br>
<br>
“The Earth is thus not so far from this apocalyptical scenario.
“Assuming this runaway process would be started on Earth, an
evaporation of only 10 meters of the oceans’ surface would lead to a
1 bar increase of the atmospheric pressure at ground level. In just
a few hundred years, we would reach a ground temperature of over
500°C. Later, we would even reach 273 bars of surface pressure and
over 1 500°C, when all of the oceans would end up totally
evaporated,”<br>
<br>
A few tens of degrees C to trigger this runaway greenhouse effect
may seem like a lot, but it’s not. Remember than James Hansen’s
climate sensitivity value is a nominal 4.8C (actually between 3.6C
and 6.0C) so it’s not too far off. <br>
<br>
Here is the title and link to the open-source peer reviewed paper:<br>
“First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D
General Circulation Model”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html">https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qsv2cAXlNY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qsv2cAXlNY</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ Runaway greenhouse effect - paper of Astronomy/Astrophysics ]</i><br>
<b>First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D
General Circulation Model</b><br>
Guillaume Chaverot, Emeline Bolmont and Martin Turbet<br>
Accepted: 11 September 2023<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
While their detections remain challenging at present, observations
of small terrestrial planets will become easier in a near future
thanks to continuous improvements of detection and
characterisation instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a
key step to understanding their characteristics, atmospheric
composition, and possible histories. If a surface water reservoir
is present on such a terrestrial planet, an increase in insolation
may lead to a dramatic positive feedback induced by water
evaporation: the runaway greenhouse. The resulting rise in the
global surface temperature leads to the evaporation of the entire
water reservoir, separating two very different population of
planets: 1) temperate planets with a surface water ocean and 2)
hot planets with a puffed atmosphere dominated by water vapor.
Therefore, the understanding of the runaway greenhouse is pivotal
to assess the different evolution of Venus and the Earth, as well
as every similar terrestrial exoplanet. In this work, we use a 3D
General Circulation Model (GCM), the Generic-PCM, to study the
runaway greenhouse transition, linking temperate and post-runaway
states. Our simulations were comprised of two phases. First,
assuming initially a liquid surface ocean, there is an evaporation
phase, which enriches the atmosphere with water vapor. Second,
when the ocean is considered to be entirely evaporated, there is a
dry transition phase for which the surface temperature increases
dramatically. Finally, the evolution ends with a hot and stable
post-runaway state. By describing in detail the evolution of the
climate over these two steps, we show a rapid transition of the
cloud coverage and of the wind circulation from the troposphere to
the stratosphere. By comparing our result to previous studies
using 1D models, we discuss the effect of intrinsically 3D
processes such as the global dynamics and the clouds, which are
key to understanding the runaway greenhouse. We also explore the
potential reversibility of the runaway greenhouse that is limited
by its radiative unbalance.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html">https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ so you want to build a house? - some discussion ]</i><br>
<b>Building for Sustainability - What Really Matters</b><br>
Energy vs Climate<br>
25.Oct.2023<br>
What matters - and really doesn’t matter - when it comes to Building
for Sustainability? David, Sara and Ed answer that question in a
live episode of Energy vs Climate recorded on November 5, 2023 to
kick off the Building for Sustainability symposium in Canmore, AB. <br>
[ audio <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0</a> ]<br>
Nov 10, 2023 Energy vs Climate Podcast [ 50 min audio]<br>
Building for Sustainability - What Really Matters | Energy vs
Climate S5E4<br>
<br>
What matters - and really doesn’t matter - when it comes to Building
for Sustainability? David, Sara and Ed answer that question in a
live episode of Energy vs Climate recorded on November 5, 2023 to
kick off the Building for Sustainability symposium in Canmore, AB.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - 2006 muzzling of climate
scientist Dr James Hansen ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>January 29, 2006 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> January 29, 2006: The New York Times
reports on the extensive effort by the George W. Bush administration
to muzzle NASA scientist James Hansen. (The controversy would also
be covered by Air America's "EcoTalk with Betsy Rosenberg" and the
CBS program "60 Minutes.")<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/science/earth/29climate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&">http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/science/earth/29climate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&</a>
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/02/ecotalk_82.html">http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/02/ecotalk_82.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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