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<p><font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>February</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 1, 2024</b></i></font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Yale survey, challenges, video, 54% want
change ]<br>
</i></font><font face="Calibri"><b>Dr. Jennifer Marlon explains
the scientific consensus on climate change</b><br>
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">Jan 31, 2024<br>
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication’s Senior Research
Scientist, Dr. Jennifer Marlon, talks to Scripps News about why
there is still a disconnect between some American's views on the
climate and the scientific consensus regarding human-caused global
warming.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhr3YSJYd6g">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhr3YSJYd6g</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Peter Sinclair video on simple geothermal
]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Wilson Ricks on Next Generation Geothermal</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">greenmanbucket</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Jan 31, 2024</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Wilson Ricks is a researcher at Princeton
University specializing in modeling low carbon futures and carbon
free generation technologies. </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">He speaks here about the cutting edge of
Geothermal technologies.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bipWVh2S3rs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bipWVh2S3rs</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Beckwith reads from 2 papers on melting
Arctic - Russian scientists studying ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Current state of subsea permafrost in the
Kara, Laptev and East Siberian Seas: On the Methane Risk</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Paul Beckwith</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Jan 31, 2024</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">A new paper by multiple Russian authors,
including Shakhova and Semilitov (remember them) came out
recently. </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Key finding: Sediment temperatures are as high
at +5.0 C in large regions. Methane burst risks…</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Here are the relevant links:</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“Abstract</font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">Features of sediment temperature on
the shelf and continental slope areas of the Russian Arctic seas
and its physical properties are important for understanding the
current state of subsea permafrost and the gas hydrates
stability zone. New data are reported for the Kara Sea region
where the bottom sediment temperatures are influenced by warming
effects from great Siberian rivers and the Atlantic currents.
The data collected during marine expeditions in 2019–2022 are
combined with results of earlier marine studies, drilling
operations, and geophysical surveys in the Laptev and East
Siberian seas, in order to identify major trends of in situ
temperature and properties distribution of bottom sediments in
the Russian Arctic region.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Most (85%) of bottom sediments in the Kara
Sea shelf, as well as in the Laptev and East Siberian shelves,
consist of water-saturated silty clay and silt with rather
uniform particle size distribution. The obtained thermal
conductivity and heat capacity values for the Kara Sea sediments
agree with the values of 1.0 W/(m·K) and 2900 kJ/m3,
respectively, obtained previously from other Arctic seas.
Thermal conductivity becomes up to 40% higher depthward from 0
to 2 m subbottom depth, possibly, because of lower moisture
content and porosity in more lithified sediments.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The bottom sediment temperatures in the
Arctic seas are distributed unevenly, especially in the Kara Sea
shelf (from +5.0 °C in the west to −1.4 °C in the east), where
the high sediment temperatures in the western and central parts
of the Kara Sea being due to the effect of warm water inputs.
The distribution of bottom sediment temperatures correlates well
with distribution of relic subsea permafrost. Ice-bearing
permafrost in the Siberian Arctic shelf extends from the
shoreline till sea depths of 80–100 m, within the respective
offshore distances of ∼800–1000 km in some areas, but permafrost
remnants may exist locally at sea depths within 120 m. Buried
100–600 m thick continuous subsea permafrost may occur in the
Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian shelves under unfrozen (cryotic)
saline shallow sediments. However, subsea permafrost is
discontinuous and sporadic at sea depths ∼70 m and more. Thus,
the bottom sediment temperature features in the Arctic seas can
be used as a proxy of subsea permafrost extent contenting
intrapermafrost and subpermafrost gas and gas hydrate
accumulations.”</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">“Warming of the ESAS began over 12 thousand
years (kyr) ago in the earliest Holocene after the area had been
submerged as a result of sea level rise. The temperature of
terrestrial permafrost in the Holocene Arctic changed as the
mean annual air temperature has become 6–7 °C warmer since the
last glacial maximum. Subsea permafrost has been subjected to
additional warming induced by sea water which has much warmer
mean annual temperatures than air in the ESAS area: −1 °C
against −10 °C, respectively. Consequently, the subsea
permafrost has grown up to 17 °C warmer for the last 12 kyrs.
The evolution of subsea permafrost may have multiple controls:
the time when it was submerged relative to the time of
emergence; thermal state and thickness of permafrost before
inundation; coastal morphology and hydro- and lithodynamics;
shoreline configuration and retreat rate; pre-existing
thermokarst (particular landforms produced by thawing of
ice-rich permafrost or melting of ground ice) and thaw lakes;
temperature and salinity of bottom water; composition of
sediments, including ice content, etc.”</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri">“Current state of subsea permafrost in the Kara
sea vs laptev and East Siberian seas”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://images.app.goo.gl/fPpEfocGWZcdMrPu5">https://images.app.goo.gl/fPpEfocGWZcdMrPu5</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Arctic region maps:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://encounteredu.com/multimedia/images/how-many-countries-border-the-arctic-ocean">https://encounteredu.com/multimedia/images/how-many-countries-border-the-arctic-ocean</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://encounteredu.com/multimedia/images">https://encounteredu.com/multimedia/images</a><br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://images.app.goo.gl/fPpEfocGWZcdMrPu5">https://images.app.goo.gl/fPpEfocGWZcdMrPu5</a> <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNLljFj55Fo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNLljFj55Fo</a><i><br>
</i></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i><br>
</i></font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ very hard to count - it could be 4 million
per year, or soon, measured by incident ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Climate change has killed 4 million people
since 2000 — and that’s an underestimate</b><br>
“Nobody is counting it, and nobody is moving in the direction of
counting it.”<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Zoya Teirstein<br>
Staff Writer<br>
Published<br>
Jan 30, 2024<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">In the early 2000s, as climate denialism was
infecting political institutions around the world like a
malevolent plague, an Australian epidemiologist named Anthony
McMichael took on a peculiar and morbid scientific question: How
many people were being killed by climate change? McMichael’s
research team tallied up how many lives had been lost to diarrheal
disease, malnutrition, malaria, cardiovascular disease (a proxy
for heat-related illness), and flooding, worldwide, in the year
2000. The researchers then used computer modeling to parse out the
percentage of those deaths that were attributable to climate
change. Climate change, they estimated, was responsible for
166,000 lives lost that year. <br>
<br>
The world has changed a great deal since. Climate denialism is no
longer the world’s de facto climate policy, in large part because
the impacts of rising temperatures have become impossible to
ignore. The field of climate research has grown apace, and the
science behind how climate change affects everything from
ultra-rare species of frogs to the velocity of baseballs to the
intensity of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes has
become astonishingly precise. But the research assessing how many
people are currently being killed by the climate crisis has
remained conspicuously stagnant. While a small handful of studies
have attempted to quantify the effect of climate change on
mortality decades into the future, the McMichael standard, an
ambitious relic of the early 2000s, is still the only estimate of
its kind. <br>
<br>
This week, a climate and health researcher published a commentary
in the journal Nature Medicine that takes the McMichael standard
to its logical conclusion. By the end of this year, Colin Carlson,
a global change biologist and assistant professor at Georgetown
University, wrote in the commentary provided exclusively to Grist,
climate change will have killed roughly 4 million people globally
since the turn of the century. That’s more than the population of
Los Angeles or Berlin, “more than every other non-COVID public
health emergency the World Health Organization has ever declared
combined,” said Carlson, who also runs an institute focused on
predicting and preventing pandemics. <br>
<br>
And 4 million lives lost due to climate change, a breathtakingly
high number, is still an underestimate — probably a big one. The
McMichael standard doesn’t include deaths linked to climate-driven
surges of the many non-malarial diseases spread by mosquitoes,
like dengue and West Nile virus. It doesn’t incorporate deaths
caused by deadly bacteria, fungal spores, ticks, and other
diseases or carriers of disease that are shifting in range and
breadth as the planet warms. It doesn’t examine the impacts of
wildfires and wildfire smoke on longevity. It doesn’t look at the
mental health consequences of extreme heat and extreme weather and
the related increase in suicides that have been documented in
recent years. “At the time we were doing it, we already knew it
was conservative,” said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, a coauthor of
McMichael’s 2003 study who is now the head of the climate change
and health unit at the World Health Organization.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The list of potential impacts that would need
to be assessed in order to gain a complete picture of the climate
death toll is long and, thus far, no researcher has endeavored to
make a full accounting. “Climate change is killing a lot of
people, nobody is counting it, and nobody is moving in the
direction of counting it,” Carlson said. “If it were anything but
climate change, we would be treating it on very different terms.”
<br>
<br>
Wael Al-Delaimy, a multidisciplinary epidemiologist at the
University of California, San Diego, agreed that 4 million deaths
since 2000 is “definitely an underestimate.” A significant lack of
mortality data in low- and middle-income countries is one of the
biggest obstacles standing in the way of a proper update to the
McMichael standard. “The main challenge is mortality is not well
documented and measured across the globe, and low- and
middle-income countries suffer the most because they are not
prepared, and there are no real epidemiological studies trying to
link it to climate change,” Al-Delaimy said. <br>
<br>
The paucity of epidemiological data limits the methods researchers
use to calculate climate-linked mortality in the first place. <br>
<br>
Researchers who want to investigate how many deaths from a
particular disaster are due to climate change typically employ a
method called attribution science. To understand the effect
climate change has on mortality, scientists will use statistical
methods and computer models to determine how climate change has
influenced the drivers of a discrete event, such as a heatwave.
Then, they’ll quantify the portion of heat-related deaths that can
be attributed to climate change-related factors, using observed
mortality data. As Al-Delaimy noted, mortality data isn’t always
available. Attribution science, in the context of climate-related
mortality, is a tool that’s useful, specialized, and — in the view
of experts like Carlson — limited by patchy data. <br>
<br>
McMichael did not rely on attribution science to reach his
conclusions, partly because the technique was still in its infancy
when he was conducting his mortality work. Instead, he used
existing climate models to approximate how climate change was
affecting specific illnesses on a global scale. His research team
figured out how diarrheal disease, malnutrition, and the other
factors they chose to include were influenced by warming — for
example, they estimated a 5 percent increase in cases of diarrhea
per every degree Celsius change in temperature — and then based
their calculations on those findings. “To be honest, nobody had
been arrogant enough to ask that question before — what is the
total burden of disease from climate change? — because obviously
it’s a very huge and difficult question,” Campbell-Lendrum said.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Carlson thinks the path forward builds on this
work. Success hinges on predictive computer modeling, he said:
research that can simulate disease spread and climate conditions
and make predictions about how these patterns may change in the
future. Predictive modeling doesn’t require researchers to track
down mortality data counting every single person who died in a
particular extreme weather event. The answer to the question of
how many people have been killed by climate change, Carlson said,
can be answered by developing a predictive modeling-based protocol
for how researchers measure climate change-related deaths. He aims
to gather the world’s leading climate and health experts together
this year to build out exactly such a system. Getting researchers
“baking to the same recipe,” he said, could ultimately produce an
updated, more accurate climate mortality estimate. <br>
<br>
Developing something resembling a universal climate mortality
protocol won’t be simple, but it could accomplish what McMichael
set out to do in the 2000s: furnish the public with a rough
understanding of the full climate death toll, not 50 years into
the future, but as it is happening right now. “If you don’t know
how big the challenge is, you can justify not investing in the
challenge,” said Kristie L. Ebi, a climate and health researcher
at the University of Washington. Mortality data drives policy, and
more policy is needed to protect the public from what’s coming —
and what’s already here. <br>
<br>
In the summer of 2022 — a cooler summer than the summer of 2023,
which is on track to be eclipsed by the summer of 2024 — extreme
heat in Europe caused over 60,000 deaths between the end of May
and the beginning of September. Since early 2023, clouds of
mosquitoes, spurred by unusual flooding and an intensifying
monsoon season, have spread dengue fever across huge swaths of the
world, infecting nearly 5 million people and causing more than
5,000 deaths. Last year’s extreme weather events killed 492 people
in the U.S. — one of the countries that is best-equipped to deal
with the fallout from extreme weather. <br>
<br>
A deadly trend is underway. As McMichael put it in an open letter
published just weeks before he died in 2014, “Our mismanagement of
the world’s climate and environment is weakening the foundations
of health and longevity.” And yet, a very small proportion of the
4 million deaths caused by climate change so far, Carlson wrote in
his commentary, “will have been recognized by the victims’
families, or acknowledged by national governments, as the
consequence of climate change.” What would happen if people knew
the true scope of the risk at hand? Carlson aims to find out.<br>
</font><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grist.org/health/climate-change-has-killed-4-million-people-since-2000-and-thats-an-underestimate/">https://grist.org/health/climate-change-has-killed-4-million-people-since-2000-and-thats-an-underestimate/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - efforts in 2003 ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="+2"><i><b>February 1, 2003: <br>
</b></i></font></font><font face="Calibri"><font size="4">In
the Chicago Sun-Times, Jim DiPeso of Republicans</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">for Environmental Protection
urges the Senate to pass the Climate</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">Stewardship Act of 2003 (a/k/a
McCain-Lieberman), noting:</font></font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri"><font size="4">"Deep emissions
reductions will be needed over the next several</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">decades to stabilize
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">But the McCain-Lieberman bill
would be an excellent start and a clear</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">signal that the United States,
at last, is moving off the climate</font></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4">change sidelines."</font></font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><font size="4"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20030228174145/http://www.rep.org/opinions/op-eds/33.htmuary">http://web.archive.org/web/20030228174145/http://www.rep.org/opinions/op-eds/33.htmuary</a>
1, </font><font size="+2"><i><b> </b></i></font> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><br>
=== Other climate news sources
===========================================<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>*Inside Climate News</b><br>
Newsletters<br>
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every
day or once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s
top headlines deliver the full story, for free.<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/">https://insideclimatenews.org/</a><br>
--------------------------------------- <br>
*<b>Climate Nexus</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*">https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*</a>
<br>
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News
summarizes the most important climate and energy news of the
day, delivering an unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant
reporting. It also provides original reporting and commentary on
climate denial and pro-polluter activity that would otherwise
remain largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
================================= <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b class="moz-txt-star"><span
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the peer-reviewed journals. <br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief">https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief</a>
<br>
================================== <br>
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