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<p><font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>February</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 9 , 2024</b></i></font></p>
<i>[ from BBC news ]</i><br>
<b>World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit</b><br>
Mark Poynting, BBC News<br>
<blockquote> New data suggests that global warming has exceeded 1.5C
across an entire 12-month period “for the first time”, reports BBC
News. The article notes that this year-long breach of 1.5C, as
recorded by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), does
not break the Paris Agreement 1.5C limit – as that refers to
long-term warming – but it “does bring the world closer to doing
so”. [See Carbon Brief’s recent interactive about the 1.5C limit
for more details.] Scientists said it was a “significant
milestone” that highlighted the challenge of keeping the 1.5C
long-term limit in reach, reports the Daily Telegraph. The
temperature rise in the past year has been influenced by El Niño,
the article notes, a regularly occurring global climate phenomenon
that triggers warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
According to C3S, the global average temperature for the specific
period between February last year and last month was 1.52C above
the 1850-1900 baseline, reports the Times. Currently, the
long-term average is 1.25C above pre-industrial times, but with
carbon emissions rising “it seems certain that, on this measure,
the 1.5C limit will soon be breached, probably around 2030”,
reports New Scientist. According to C3S, January was the eighth
consecutive month with record-high monthly temperatures, reports
Bloomberg. In January, global temperatures hit 1.66C above the
average during pre-industrial times, it notes. January 2024 broke
the previous record for the warmest first month of the year set in
2020 by 0.12C, adds the Associated Press. The records are based on
computer-generated analyses and according to the ERA5 reanalysis
dataset, “using billions of measurements from satellites, ships,
aircraft and weather stations around the world", C3S notes in its
press release. [It is worth noting that the observed global
temperature record produced by Berkeley Earth estimated that the
average global temperature for 2023 had already hit 1.5C, as
reported by Carbon Brief last month.] The new World Meteorological
Organisation chief has said that the rate of climate change is
accelerating, reports a separate Associated Press piece. Warming
has triggered more Arctic cold outbreaks in North America and
Europe, secretary general Celeste Saulo told the outlet, it notes.
The record temperatures in January and over the last year were
also covered by France24, Reuters, the New York Times, the
Financial Times and others. <br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://preview.mailerlite.io/emails/webview/249617/112601310158652427">https://preview.mailerlite.io/emails/webview/249617/112601310158652427</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<p><i>[ BBC interviews Katharine Hayhoe - 4 min audio - speaking
carefully "Every bit of warming matters"]</i><br>
<b>New evidence of a warming world</b><br>
Is the world warming faster than we thought and are current
targets signed-off by world leaders under the Paris climate summit
agreements enough to tackle the most damaging effects of global
warming in the years to come?<br>
<br>
New evidence from the EU's climate service, Copernicus, highlights
that for the first time, the world was 1.5 degrees warmer than
pre-industrial levels for a whole year.<br>
<br>
Keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees was the target set at the
Paris summit less than a decade ago. A combination of greenhouse
gas emissions and dramatic sea temperature rises are to blame,
scientists say.<br>
<br>
Newsday heard what this new data means from Professor Katherine
Hayhoe, chief climate scientist at the Nature Conservancy in
Houston, Texas and author of ‘Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s
Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World’:<br>
<br>
"What it serves as is yet another reminder that as long as our
carbon emissions continue to grow temperatures will continue to
increase... every bit of warming matters. Global leaders need to
realise this is not about saving the planet, it's about saving us.
The can cannot be kicked down the road further, there is no road
left."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0h9pcq2">https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0h9pcq2</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ how is increased heat going to hurt us? video reading of the
recent paper ]</i><br>
<b>Human Survivability and Liveability to Heat and Humidity Stress
in our Warming World: Not good.</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Feb 7, 2024<br>
I chat about a recent paper that measures human endurance to high
heat and humidity, and finds that it is much lower than we think. <br>
<br>
In fact, it is much worse that the theoretical 35C wetbulb
temperature even for healthy individuals, and as we age we lose our
tolerance to high heat and humidity. Sun exposure and lack of wind
also worsen things, as does underlying medical conditions,
prescription medications, and obesity. <br>
<br>
Also, the higher the level of activity of a person the greater the
loss of ability of the person to tolerate and withstand the combined
heat and humidity stress on the human body.<br>
<br>
Peer-reviewed scientific study:<br>
“A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and
liveability to heat in a changing climate”: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146">https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146</a>...<br>
<br>
<b>“Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Most studies projecting human survivability limits to
extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature
(Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology.
<br>
<br>
This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for
young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current
estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum
safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. <br>
<br>
Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation
of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. <br>
<br>
Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young)
and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. <br>
<br>
For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35
°C in dry conditions. <br>
<br>
Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most
dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). <br>
<br>
Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between
the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than
warming.”<br>
<br>
<b>Introduction</b><br>
“Adverse health impacts of extreme heat exposure are expected to
rise globally due to a warming climate, urban-induced warming, and
a growing and aging population. The concerns for human health,
productivity, and well-being are greater in humid climates and for
vulnerable populations, such as older adults, unhoused, and/or
those with chronic diseases. <br>
<br>
Therefore, robust models to assess current heat-health impacts and
project future risks must incorporate specific vulnerabilities and
diverse environmental contexts.<br>
<br>
Methods to project future heat stress risk can be broadly
categorized into epidemiology/econometric and physiology-based
approaches, which have contrasting benefits and limitations. <br>
<br>
Epidemiology/econometric approaches are empirical in nature,
analyzing time series of historical temperature paired with
particular health consequences (e.g., morbidity or mortality)
across populations to determine heat-health relationships. <br>
<br>
These studies often find higher rates of cardiovascular and
respiratory deaths associated with high ambient temperatures.
Future health burdens from heat can be estimated by applying these
relationships to climate model outputs (i.e., daily temperature)
under different warming scenarios.<br>
<br>
Empirical approaches are based on real-life outcomes and the range
of realistic living conditions, and they can explore the
cumulative effects of exposures over multiple days. <br>
<br>
However, two limitations for climate change projections include 1)
assumptions needed to extrapolate results to warmer temperatures
than observed in the historical sample and 2) ambiguity regarding
the role of humidity in heat-health outcomes. <br>
<br>
While some epidemiological studies find a relationship between
mortality in the heat and humidity, most find minimal associations
between humidity and heat-health outcomes. Given that specific
humidity is robustly expected to increase with global warming,
this uncertainty is a key research gap for epidemiology-based
projections of future heat stress.”<br>
</blockquote>
<p>Please donate to <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://PaulBeckwith.net">http://PaulBeckwith.net</a> to
support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt
climate system mayhem.<br>
</p>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzRAwJx1VQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzRAwJx1VQ</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<p><i>[ here is the PDF format from Nature Communications ]</i><br>
</p>
<p><b>A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and
liveability to heat in a changing clim</b>ate<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/1">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/1</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/2">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/2</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/3">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/3</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/4">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/4</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5</a></p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/6">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/6</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/7">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/7</a></p>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5.pdf">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5.pdf</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>February 9, 2003 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <b>February 9, 2003: In a speech at
Harvard University, Democratic presidential candidate and
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry declares:</b><br>
<blockquote>"We should be the world's environmental leader. Our
global environmental policy should be driven by our convictions,
not our constraints. America has not led but fled on the issue of
global warming. The first President Bush was willing to lead on
this issue. But the second President Bush's declaration that the
Kyoto Protocol was simply Dead on Arrival spoke for itself - and
it spoke in dozens of languages as his words whipped instantly
around the globe. What the Administration failed to see was that
Kyoto was not just an agreement; it represented the resolve of 160
nations working together over 10 years. It was a good faith effort
- and the United States just dismissed it. We didn't aim to mend
it. We didn't aim to sit down with our allies and find a
compromise. We didn't aim for a new dialogue. The Administration
was simply ready to aim and fire, and the target they hit was our
international reputation. This country can and should aim higher
than preserving its place as the world's largest unfettered
polluter. We should assert, not abandon our leadership in
addressing global economic degradation and the warming of the
atmosphere that if left unchecked, will do untold damage to our
coastline and our Great Plains, our cities and our economy."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/issues/kerr020903spenv.html">http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/issues/kerr020903spenv.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
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