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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>February</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 14, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
[ a quick read-through of the report - video ]<br>
<b>Fifth National Climate Assessment: Let’s Hope there is a Sixth…</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Feb 13, 2024<br>
I chat about the Fifth National Climate Assessment Report for the
USA, since there is a wealth of information within. Basically, this
is a hard-hitting report on how the US is being hammered by
accelerating climate change mayhem.<br>
<br>
Unfortunately, depending on the outcome of the US election, it is
very possible that there will not be a Sixth, or Seventh, or Eight…
assessment, since one of the leading candidate’s is of the opinion
that climate change is a Chinese hoax. <br>
<br>
It seems that we really are in a horrifying episode of The Twilight
Zone, or in a Dr. Strangelove movie, or perhaps in a Monty Python
skit. Google these things if you are too young to know what I am
talking about; you will be in for a pleasant surprise!<br>
<br>
“The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s
preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses.
It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides
the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across
the United States.”: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/</a><br>
<br>
“As the world’s climate has shifted toward warmer conditions, the
frequency and intensity of extreme cold events have declined over
much of the US, while the frequency, intensity, and duration of
extreme heat have increased. Across all regions of the US, people
are experiencing warming temperatures and longer-lasting heatwaves.
Over much of the country, nighttime temperatures and winter
temperatures have warmed more rapidly than daytime and summer
temperatures. Many other extremes, including heavy precipitation,
drought, flooding, wildfire, and hurricanes, are becoming more
frequent and/or severe, with a cascade of effects in every part of
the country.”<br>
<br>
“The US now experiences, on average, a billion-dollar weather or
climate disaster every three weeks.”<br>
<br>
“Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters are events where
damages/costs reach or exceed $1 billion, including adjustments for
inflation. Between 2018 and 2022, 89 such events affected the US,
including 4 droughts, 6 floods, 52 severe storms, 18 tropical
cyclones, 5 wildfires, and 4 winter storm events. During this
period, Florida had the highest total damages ($140 billion) and
experienced the highest damages from a single event—Hurricane Ian
($113 billion). Over the 1980–2022 period, Texas had the highest
total damages ($375 billion). While similar data are not available
for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands, Super Typhoon Yutu caused
$500 million in property damage alone in Saipan and the northern
Marianas in 2018. Increasing costs over time are driven by changes
in the assets at risk and the increase in frequency or intensity of
extreme events caused by climate change.”<br>
<br>
“The risk of two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or
in quick succession in the same region—known as compound events—is
increasing. Climate change is also increasing the risk of multiple
extremes occurring simultaneously in different locations that are
connected by complex human and natural systems. For instance,
simultaneous megafires across multiple western states and record
back-to-back Atlantic hurricanes in 2020 caused unprecedented demand
on federal emergency response resources.”<br>
<br>
“As the climate changes, increased instabilities in US and global
food production and distribution systems are projected to make food
less available and more expensive. These price increases and
disruptions are expected to disproportionately affect the nutrition
and health of women, children, older adults, and low-wealth
communities.”<br>
<br>
“Homes, property, and critical infrastructure are increasingly
exposed to more frequent and intense extreme events, increasing the
cost of maintaining a safe and healthy place to live. Development in
fire-prone areas and increases in area burned by wildfires have
heightened risks of loss of life and property damage in many areas
across the US. Coastal communities across the country—home to 123
million people (40% of the total US population)—are exposed to sea
level rise, with millions of people at risk of being displaced from
their homes by the end of the century.”<br>
<br>
“Climate change is already harming human health across the US, and
impacts are expected to worsen with continued warming. Climate
change harms individuals and communities by exposing them to a range
of compounding health hazards, including the following:<br>
— More severe and frequent extreme events<br>
— Wider distribution of infectious and vector-borne pathogens <br>
— Air quality worsened by smog, wildfire smoke, dust, and increased
pollen<br>
— Threats to food and water security<br>
— Mental and spiritual health stressors”<br>
<br>
Above, in quotes, is just a small sampling of choice tidbits on what
the US is facing. <br>
<br>
You may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is
interested in you.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wiy9YVJG1VY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wiy9YVJG1VY</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ Here is the report ]</i><br>
<b>The Fifth National Climate Assessment</b><br>
The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s
preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses.
It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides
the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across
the United States.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ a poem for the assessment delivery ]</i><br>
<b>STARTLEMENT</b><br>
by Ada Limón, 24th Poet Laureate Consultant in Poetry at the Library
of Congress<br>
<blockquote>It is a forgotten pleasure, the pleasure<br>
of the unexpected blue-bellied lizard<br>
<br>
skittering off his sun spot rock, the flicker<br>
of an unknown bird by the bus stop.<br>
<br>
To think, perhaps, we are not distinguishable<br>
and therefore no loneliness can exist here.<br>
<br>
Species to species in the same blue air, smoke—<br>
wing flutter buzzing, a car horn coming.<br>
<br>
So many unknown languages, to think we have<br>
only honored this strange human tongue.<br>
<br>
If you sit by the riverside, you see a culmination<br>
of all things upstream. We know now,<br>
<br>
we were never at the circle’s center, instead<br>
all around us something is living or trying to live.<br>
<br>
The world says, What we are becoming, we are<br>
becoming together.<br>
<br>
The world says, One type of dream has ended<br>
and another has just begun.<br>
<br>
The world says, Once we were separate,<br>
and now we must move in unison.<br>
</blockquote>
A poem written for the Fifth National Climate Assessment.<br>
© 2023 Ada Limón. All Rights Reserved.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter/">https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter/</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ a few words about the report ]</i><br>
<b>About This Report</b><br>
The Global Change Research Act of 19901 mandates that the US Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a report to Congress and
the President not less frequently than every four years that
“integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program
and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such
findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural
environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water
resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social
systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in
global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major
trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”<br>
<br>
The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) fulfills that mandate
by delivery of this Assessment and provides the scientific
foundation to support informed decision-making across the United
States. By design, much of the development of NCA5 built upon the
approaches and processes used to create the Fourth National Climate
Assessment (NCA4),2 with a goal of continuously advancing an
inclusive, diverse, and sustained process for assessing and
communicating scientific knowledge on the impacts, risks, and
vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate (App. 1).<br>
<br>
The findings in this report are based on a comprehensive review and
assessment of information sources determined to meet the standards
and documentation required under the Information Quality Act and the
Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 (App. 2),
including peer-reviewed literature, other literature, Indigenous
Knowledge, other expert and local knowledge, and climate data
processed and prepared for authors by NOAA’s Technical Support Unit
(TSU; see Guide to the Report section below and App. 3).<br>
<br>
NCA5 was thoroughly reviewed by Federal Government experts, external
experts, and the public multiple times throughout the report
development process. An expert external review was performed by an
ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering,
and Medicine.3 Additional information on the development of this
Assessment can be found in Appendix <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/art-climate/">https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/art-climate/</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[Permafrost lectures -- Northern Hemisphere ]</i><br>
<b>What Everyone Should Know About Permafrost Thaw</b><br>
Cryosphere Pavilion<br>
Dec 3, 2023<br>
Hear directly from Arctic scientists about why permafrost matters
and its relevance to climate negotiations. You’ll learn about what
permafrost is and where is it found; carbon emissions from
permafrost thaw; tipping points; the state of monitoring, measuring,
and accounting for these emissions; land degradation and
displacement of Arctic communities; loss and damage in the
circumarctic and the impacts on Indigenous and non-Indigenous
communities; and the need for co-produced resilience strategies.<br>
Contacts: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Bolin Centre for Climate
Research, Alfred Wegener Institute<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTTqwVFAJKg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTTqwVFAJKg</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[Likely I read this Walter Sullivan
article when first published ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>February 14, 1979 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> February 14, 1979: The New York Times
reports: <br>
<blockquote><b>Climatolo</b><b>gists Are Warned North Pole Might
Melt</b><br>
By Walter Sullivan Special to The New York Times<br>
Feb. 14, 1979<br>
GENEVA, Feb. 13 — There is a real possibility that some people now
in their infancy will live to a time when the ice at the North
Pole will have melted, a change that would cause swift and perhaps
catastrophic changes in climate.<br>
<br>
Although many uncertainties affect the possibility, the change
could come about because of rapid increases in fuel‐burning and a
consequent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.<br>
<br>
Carbon dioxide allows sunlight to enter the atmosphere and heat
the earth, but it inhibits the escape of heat radiation into
space.<br>
<br>
This so‐called “greenhouse effect” was discussed today by several
specialists reporting to the World Climate Conference here, and
the conferees were urged to assign top priority to assessing the
carbon dioxide threat in the 20‐year world climate program now in
preparation.<br>
<br>
In a study being presented to the conference by the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, it is projected
that global energy use may increase from three to five times by
the middle of the next century.<br>
<br>
The increase would derive chiefly from industrialization of the
developing countries. If, as many experts expect, most of the
energy comes from burning coal, oil and gas, the amount of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere may almost double by early in the next
century and redouble by mid‐century.<br>
<br>
This projection was by Dr. W. Lawrence Gates, climatologist at
Oregon State University in Corvallis. The resulting global warming
“may amount to an environmental catastrophe,” he said.<br>
<br>
In another report, Dr. R. Edward Munn of the University of Toronto
and Dr. Les ter Mechta of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration in Washington also discussed the threat.<br>
<br>
<b>Another Projection</b><br>
<br>
They concluded, however, that “few, if any, scientists believe the
carbon dioxide problem in itself justifies a curb, today, in the
usage of fossil fuels or deforestation.” Since forests absorb that
gas. incorporating Its carbon into wood and leaves, the clearing
of land for agriculture is adding to atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels.<br>
Nevertheless, they said, within 5 or 10 years “governments could
come to crossroad” in determining their energy and land‐use
policies. The uncertainties include the extent to which oceans and
vegetation will absorb the added carbon dioxide.<br>
<br>
As the oceans become warmer, they may release some of the carbon
dioxide already stored there. It, on the other hand, the ice
adrift on the Arctic Ocean melts, the resulting water would then
take up some of it.<br>
<br>
Dr. Herman Flohn, Emeritus Professor of Meteorology at the
University of Bonn in West Germany, said that “the most
fascinating, and also the most controversial problem” facing
climatologists was the possibility that the Arctic ice (apart from
Greenland) would vanish. The Arctic Ocean has not been free of ice
in almost 2.5 million years.<br>
<br>
<b>Earlier Soviet Idea</b><br>
<br>
The ice's removal by design was discussed in 1962 by a Soviet
scientist, M. I. Bodyko, who later suggested that heating by
atmospheric carbon dioxide could do the job. From sampling of sea
floor sediments, Dr. Flohn pointed out, it has recently been
possible to reconstruct the history of glaciation at both poles,
showing that for 10 million years world climate was grossly
lopsided.<br>
<br>
The reason was that, beginning more than 12 million years ago the
Antarctic continent became ice covered, reaching, from five
million to six million years ago, an accumulation 50 percent more
voluminous than today. Yet until less than 2.5 million years ago
the North Pole region was open ocean.<br>
<br>
The effect was to shift climate zones of the Northern Hemisphere
some 400 miles north. If the Arctic ice melts, Dr. Flohn
predicted, winter rains will become meager in the Mediterranean,
Near East and American Southwest, and summer droughts would become
frequent between north latitudes 45 and 50 degrees.<br>
<br>
Dr. B. John Mason, head of the British weather services, told of
computer simulation of the effects of an ice‐free Arctic Ocean. A
“rather unexpected result,” he said, was the indication that
mid‐latitudes in the United States, Eastern Siberia and Western
Europe would be cooled by as much as 16 degrees Fahrenheit.<br>
<br>
The energy study by the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis examined three potential sources for the greatly
increased demand projected for the year 2030: solar energy, fossil
fuels or nuclear energy. In part because of the time required to
develop the technology, it was concluded that solar energy could
contribute no more than a quarter of the needs.<br>
<br>
The choice, therefore, is primarily between nuclear and fossil
fuel, the former raising formidable problem of radioactive waste
disposal and the latter a threat to world climate.<br>
<br>
The world is faced with a “Faustian bargain,” Dr. Roger Revelle,
chairman of tomorrow morning's session, told a press conference
today, adding, “Whatever you do is bad.” Dr. Revelle, who formerly
headed the population center at Harvard University, noted that
population growth had already tapered off in Europe, including
European Russia and Japan.<br>
<br>
There is “real hope,” he said, that in the next century world
population may level off at eight billion — roughly double the
present level. But to raise the living standards of such a
population to advanced levels will place formidable demands on
energy production.</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3">http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1979/02/14/archives/climatologists-are-warned-north-pole-might-melt-another-projection.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VU0.9Jtp.KzfFE7qQcTtp&smid=url-share">https://www.nytimes.com/1979/02/14/archives/climatologists-are-warned-north-pole-might-melt-another-projection.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VU0.9Jtp.KzfFE7qQcTtp&smid=url-share</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ discussions from the late, great Michael Dowd - 23 mins ]</i><br>
<b>"Beyond Hope and Fear: Staying (mostly) positive in abruptly
disturbing times" - Michael Dowd, 2021</b><br>
thegreatstory<br>
Feb 13, 2024<br>
Michael Dowd delivered this online sermon August 2021 for Community
Unitarian Universalists of Brighton, Michigan. Following Michael's
death in October 2023, the service leader of that sermon (Terry
Sharik) and I (Michael's widow, Connie Barlow) decided in 2024 to
edit and post this sermon as a legacy piece. <br>
<br>
As video editor, I extracted the sermon from the full church service
video — and lo and behold discovered that I myself told a Story for
All Ages during the service. So that is included too. The story was
titled "Helping Forests Walk", and I moved it from near the
beginning of the service to the end of this video. So it is
Michael's sermon that begins right away.<br>
<br>
For a well-organized and linked list of all of Michael Dowd's videos
during the last half of the 18 years he and I lived on the road,
visit the archival webpage I created for exactly that purpose. Its
title: "Michael Dowd: Postdoom Pastor":
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thegreatstory.org/michaeldowd-postdoom.html">https://thegreatstory.org/michaeldowd-postdoom.html</a><br>
<br>
And absolutely do visit the Postdoom.com website that Michael
founded in 2019. The new leadership since Michael's death have been
greatly improving the website graphics, accessibility, and resources
for serving the community for which it was designed. Bravo!<br>
<b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://postdoom.com/">https://postdoom.com/</a></b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzWfcjuXPQU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzWfcjuXPQU</a><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><br>
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</font> <font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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--------------------------------------- <br>
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more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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<br>
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