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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 2, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ Academic study of 3 ways to ponder the future ]</i><br>
<b>Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case
scenarios of climate change</b><br>
Joe P. L. Davidson, Luke Kemp<br>
First published: 12 December 2023 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.871">https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.871</a><br>
Edited by: Matthias Heymann, Domain Editor and Maria Carmen Lemos,
Editor-in-Chief<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
Many now argue that we should think about the previously
unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses
and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not
pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessary and
valuable to imagine the worst-case scenarios of climate change.
Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of
disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is
unhelpful and greater nuance is required. We need to distinguish
between climate doomists (who see catastrophe as imminent and
unavoidable) and climate risk realists (who see catastrophe as one
potential future that should be avoided). We also need to split
apart the different ways of envisioning climate catastrophe to
understand their distinct strengths and weaknesses. We outline and
compare three alternative modes of viewing the worst-case
scenarios of climate change: foresight, agitation, and fiction.
The first centers on modeling catastrophic climate scenarios, the
second on the use of images of climate catastrophe for political
action, and the third on fictional visions of future climate
disasters. These different approaches are complementary and should
be better integrated to create more comprehensive models of the
future. All of them would benefit from viewing the future as
uncertain, reflecting on the social position of the author, and
guarding against the authoritarian “stomp reflex” that can be
induced by discussions of crisis and emergency...<br>
</blockquote>
- -<br>
<b>7 CONCLUSION</b><br>
The three different approaches to exploring climate endgames
(foresight, agitation, and fiction) each have their strengths and
weaknesses. Foresight is the most systematic and grounded way of
thinking about the future. Unfortunately, it frequently fails in
having simplistic methods that ignore risk cascades, societal
responses, and other contributors to global catastrophic risk.
Agitation can help to mobilize the public, but runs the risk of
misrepresenting the evidence, potentially creating fatalism (in the
case of climate doomism), and depoliticizing climate change. Fiction
can help to create more holistic visions of the future, encourage
reflection on how future crisis interacts with past and present
injustices, help craft new visions of society, and foster humility.
Yet it runs the risk of being too speculative and ignoring the
unprecedented nature of current climate change. These approaches,
for all their differences, are complementary and can only be
improved by combining them. There may be other ways of exploring
endgames, and we invite others to further investigate these.<br>
<br>
The emphasis of this article has been on the differences and
synergies between alternative modes of envisioning the worst-case
scenarios of climate change. This is not a general philosophical
defense of catastrophic thinking as others have articulated (Dupuy,
2023). Nevertheless, there are some broader lessons that can be
drawn from our comparative approach. Effective catastrophic
envisioning requires that scholars, activists, and writers alike
need to stress that a catastrophic future is uncertain, not
inevitable, and reflect on their own social position. We should aim
to be climate risk realists (aware of the uncertain and malleable
nature of the future), not climate doomists (who see catastrophe as
imminent and inevitable). Importantly, the broader scientific
community should be careful to distinguish between the two and not
lazily brand any discussion of climate catastrophe as climate
doomism. In short, climate catastrophe should not be vilified as
climate doomism. Drawing on more diverse groups and encouraging
deliberation across communities will also help to ensure that our
judgments about the future are robust, not biased towards
particularly powerful social positions, and highlight the link
between current injustices and future disasters. Like cutting
emissions, exploring climate endgames requires a diverse,
thoughtful, and integrated approach. We cannot view a dangerous and
distant horizon with one (or both) eye(s) shut.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.871">https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.871</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ "What we have here is a 'failure to communicate'" ]</i><br>
<b>Climate Change Is Raising Texas’ Already High Wildfire Risks</b><br>
The Smokehouse Creek fire is a sign of more to come. Property
insurers in Texas are already responding<br>
by Delger Erdenesanaa and Christopher Flavelle<br>
Feb. 29, 2024<br>
Climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires in Texas, a
danger made real this week as the Smokehouse Creek fire, the largest
in state history, burns out of control across the Panhandle region.<br>
<br>
And that growing fire risk is beginning to affect the insurance
market in Texas, raising premiums for homeowners and causing some
insurers to withdraw from parts of the state.<br>
<br>
For the Smokehouse Creek fire to grow so big so quickly, three
weather conditions had to align: high temperatures, low relative
humidity and strong winds, said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state
climatologist and a professor of atmospheric science at Texas
A&M University.<br>
<br>
On Monday, as the Smokehouse Creek fire began to spread, it was 82
degrees Fahrenheit in Amarillo. The city’s average daytime high
temperature in February is 54 degrees, according to the National
Weather Service.<br>
As of Thursday, a New York Times tracker based on federal data shows
more than one million acres burning, making the fire one of the most
destructive in U.S. history.<br>
Temperatures in Texas have risen by 0.61 degrees Fahrenheit per
decade since 1975, according to a 2021 report by the state
climatologist’s office. The relative humidity in this region has
been decreasing as well, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. It’s less clear
whether the winds have changed significantly.<br>
Climate change is likely making fire season start earlier and last
longer, he said, by increasing the number of days in a year with hot
and dry weather conditions that enable wildfires.<br>
<br>
<b>Texas is currently the state with the second highest number of
properties that are vulnerable to wildfires, behind Florida</b>,
according to analysis by the nonprofit research group First Street
Foundation.<br>
In most of Texas, wildfires happen in the summer. But across the
Southern Plains, including the Texas Panhandle, fire risk is highest
around March when temperatures warm, strong winds blow over the flat
landscape and dry grass left from the previous growing season can
easily catch fire.<br>
<br>
Only about 1 percent of wildfires in Texas happen in the Panhandle,
but the region accounts for half of the state’s acres burned, said
Sean Dugan, a spokesman for the Texas A&M Forest Service.
“They’re not very numerous. But when they do happen, they get really
big,” he said.<br>
<br>
Normally, if there is no drought, in April the landscape starts to
become green and the Panhandle’s fire risk goes down. But this year,
there are “enhanced chances” of a dry spring and summer and a hot
summer, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. As a result, he expects the fire
risk to remain high in the Panhandle and it may be higher during the
summer in the rest of the state as well.<br>
<br>
<b>As the climate changes, the very concept of a fire season is
becoming blurry.</b><br>
<br>
“There were clear fire seasons for Texas in the past, but fires have
become a year-round threat,” said Yongqiang Liu, a meteorologist at
the U.S. Forest Service’s Southern Research Station, in an email.<br>
<br>
Texans are noticing the uptick in extreme weather events, said
Jeremy Mazur, a senior policy adviser at Texas 2036, a nonpartisan
research organization that helps fund an extreme weather report
written by the state climatologist.<br>
A top concern of residents is the rising cost of homeowners
insurance, according to a recent survey conducted by Texas 2036.
About 88 percent of 1,000 likely voters polled expressed some level
of concern about extreme weather events increasing what they pay for
property insurance.<br>
<br>
“The real impact that we’re starting to see from this growing
wildfire risk is in the form of growing property insurance
premiums,” Mr. Mazur said.<br>
<br>
Texas homeowners saw their insurance rates increase 53.6 percent
between 2019 and 2023, according to data compiled by S&P Global
Market Intelligence. That was the highest percentage increase of any
state except Arizona.<br>
<br>
Allstate, the second-largest insurer in Texas, included wildfires as
one of its “greatest areas of potential catastrophe losses” in a
regulatory filing this month.<br>
<br>
Some insurance companies have begun to withdraw from parts of the
Texas market. People in Llano and Burnet counties, southwest of
Dallas, report being dropped by their insurers because of wildfire
risk, the news outlet KXAN reported last week.<br>
State legislators are starting to take note, but more action is
needed, Mr. Mazur said. During the last legislative session, a
Republican representative from East Texas introduced a bill to
require the state forest service to recommend ways to mitigate the
state’s wildfire risks. The bill was removed from the calendar
before the end of session.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/climate/smokehouse-creek-fire-insurance-climate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/climate/smokehouse-creek-fire-insurance-climate.html</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/climate/smokehouse-creek-fire-insurance-climate.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZU0.o1a1.Gex0th7elqMH&smid=url-share">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/climate/smokehouse-creek-fire-insurance-climate.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZU0.o1a1.Gex0th7elqMH&smid=url-share</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Lessons not learned, will be repeated. ]</i><br>
<b>Disasters Forced 2.5 Million Americans From Their Homes Last Year</b><br>
Many of those displaced also reported food shortages and predatory
scams, according to new data from the Census Bureau.<br>
By Aidan Gardiner<br>
Feb. 22, 2024<br>
An estimated 2.5 million people were forced from their homes in the
United States by weather-related disasters in 2023, according to new
data from the Census Bureau.<br>
<br>
The numbers, issued on Thursday, paint a more complete picture than
ever before of the lives of these people in the aftermath of
disasters. More than a third said they had experienced at least some
food shortage in the first month after being displaced. More than
half reported that they had interacted with someone who seemed to be
trying to defraud them. And more than a third said they had been
displaced for longer than a month.<br>
<br>
The United States experienced 28 disasters last year that each cost
at least $1 billion. But until recently, the number of Americans
displaced by those disasters has been hard to estimate because of
the nation’s patchwork response system.<br>
<br>
Understanding the human toll of disasters, not just the financial
costs, is increasingly urgent as climate change supercharges extreme
weather, experts say.<br>
A lot of people’s lives are disrupted by these events in small and
large ways,” said Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban
Institute, a nonprofit group that focuses on advancing upward
mobility and equity. “It has a really big cumulative cost that’s
hard to capture. This, at least, gives us a snapshot of that.”<br>
The displacement data were gathered in the bureau’s Household Pulse
Survey, which aims to measure how emerging social and economic
challenges are affecting Americans. The survey added questions about
disasters in December 2022.<br>
<br>
Those first results, issued in January of 2023, showed that about
3.3 million people had been displaced in the year before. According
to the latest batch of responses, collected in January and early
February, 2.5 million said they had been displaced at some point
last year.<br>
<br>
The change from year to year is very likely a normal fluctuation,
experts said, and may also reflect some limitations of the survey.<br>
<br>
Different versions of the survey are sent periodically by text
message and email to more than a million households at a time. The
survey is self-reported and takes about 20 minutes. The number of
people who respond can vary from about 40,000 to 80,000. The Census
Bureau then assigns weights to the responses to make them
representative of the broader population.<br>
The Census Bureau notes that “sample sizes may be small and the
standard errors may be large.” But experts say the results still
provide some of the best available numbers on displacement.<br>
<br>
“It’s a bit of a grain-of-salt number,” said Dr. Rumbach, who holds
a Ph.D. in city and regional planning. “But at the same time, it’s a
data set in a world where we don’t have a lot of good data sets.”<br>
<br>
Hurricanes remained the most commonly cited cause of displacement,
followed by floods and fires. Florida, Texas, California and
Louisiana all had hundreds of thousands flee their homes.<br>
<br>
A precise count of those displaced by disasters has been elusive
because responding agencies and nonprofit groups only know how many
people they serve, which leaves out displaced people who do not ask
for help and communities that do not receive help at all. For
example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency only responds to
events that get a federal emergency declaration.<br>
<br>
“That’s only a small portion of overall disasters,” Dr. Rumbach
said. As an example, he pointed to floods that wreck a handful of
homes and other so-called “low attention disasters” that often
affect more rural communities. “There’s no incentive for people to
add up all of those,” he said. <br>
But the Pulse survey tries to do that, Dr. Rumbach said, even though
some researchers are wary about drawing very broad conclusions.<br>
<br>
“The concepts themselves — What is a disaster? What is displacement?
— are really left open to the interpretation of the survey
respondent,” said Elizabeth Fussell, a professor of population
studies at Brown University.<br>
<br>
The survey lists fire among the “natural disasters” that could lead
to a displacement, for example, and some experts say it is not hard
to imagine someone selecting that after a house fire. Dr. Fussell
also noted that while earlier federal surveys counted those who had
permanently moved from their homes after a disaster, “displacement”
in the pulse survey could refer to a daylong departure.<br>
<br>
While respondents can opt to say they “never returned” to their
homes, experts cautioned that the short-term nature of the survey
might make the true number of permanently displaced people hard to
discern.<br>
<br>
The data also show that the people facing the worst disaster
outcomes tend to be from communities with less political power and
who are subject to discrimination. Black people and Latinos tend to
be displaced most often, and poorer people tend to be displaced for
longer, experts said. That is amplified for people in those groups
who also identify as L.G.B.T.Q., according to one analysis.<br>
<br>
“There are many federal agencies that are very well aware that
climate change is happening and that it will manifest as
weather-related disasters,” Dr. Fussell said. “There’s a need to
understand the scale of those.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZU0.8VyQ.4JZQZhp4EFMM&smid=url-share">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/climate/climate-disasters-survivors-displacement.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZU0.8VyQ.4JZQZhp4EFMM&smid=url-share</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i>[ Call it Pass / Fail --
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/bechdel-test-climate-change-film-good-energy-1234958880/">https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/bechdel-test-climate-change-film-good-energy-1234958880/</a>
]</i></p>
<p><b>Now There’s a Bechdel Test for Climate Change in Film</b><br>
A new test says only a handful of this year's Oscar -nominated
films both acknowledge that climate change exists and has
characters who are aware of its impact.<br>
BY BRIAN WELK<br>
MARCH 1, 2024 12:00 PM<br>
Alison Bechdel came up with the comic strip premise for the
Bechdel Test in 1985, identifying the lack of female
representation in countless movies and TV shows in which two women
don’t even speak to one another. The first use of the phrase
“global warming” preceded that in 1975, but now in an unusual
marriage, the two concepts are coming together to help
entertainment address climate change.<br>
<br>
Non-profit organization Good Energy is today launching what it’s
calling a “Climate Reality Check,” introducing a study and its
criteria for a Bechdel-type test assessing whether some recent
releases acknowledge the existence of climate change in its text.<br>
<br>
The test is intended as a guide for screenwriters and industry
professionals to “interrogate their own stories” and see whether
Hollywood is representing reality — the grim reality being climate
change — on screen. And the organization is calling it a reality
check because it believes that if a movie is set in the present
day where climate change is a persistent and looming problem, it
should at least acknowledge that reality and “reflect the world as
it is.”<br>
<br>
That doesn’t sound like that high a bar, but there’s some nuance
in terms of what is being tracked. Researchers as part of the
study were looking for the phrases “climate change,” “a changing
climate,” “the climate crisis,” “global warming,” “a warming
world,” “melting glaciers,” “rising seas,” or other phrases that
can suggest at the effects of climate change on the planet. Seeing
bad weather alone didn’t cut it, unless the character acknowledged
that such storms or calamities are happening with greater
frequency.<br>
<br>
“When stories erase climate change, they seem increasingly out of
touch with reality,” the study reads. “The more that stories
include climate, the more authentic and relevant they are,
allowing them to connect with audiences and their experience of
being alive in the age of climate change.”<br>
<br>
The second component, “a character knows it,” could be
demonstrated through dialogue, a news report seen by the
character, someone attending an event specifically geared toward
taking action, or that the character is clearly identified in a
professional role designed to address climate change. Even for
stories that are post-apocalyptic in nature, the study says,
awareness of climate change and its effects shouldn’t be assumed;
it has to be demonstrated.<br>
<br>
The study says 75 percent of young people between 16-25 across 10
diverse countries find the future frightening because of climate
change, but only 37 percent talk about it regularly with family or
friends. The organization believes having characters on screen
address it can eliminate climate anxiety, hopelessness, and
inaction. The report even suggests that the lack of climate
discussion in film is a strategy of the fossil fuel industry to
sow silence and skepticism.<br>
<br>
“Audiences want on-screen stories that reflect themselves and
their reality, but report that they aren’t seeing characters who
share their level of concern about climate change,” the report
says. “This component of the test directly addresses that gap. A
character talking about climate change can help<br>
model conversations about it in real life, and simple
conversations about climate change can be remarkably influential.
As climate scientist Dr. Katharine Hayhoe says, the most important
thing a person can do to fight climate change is to talk about
it.”<br>
<br>
As part of the study, Good Energy along with researchers at Colby
College’s Buck Lab for Climate and Environment looked at the 31
different Oscar-nominated films in 2024. Only 13 of them were
contemporary stories set in the present or near future, not period
dramas or science fiction fantasies, which were not analyzed. Of
those 13, only three movies passed the test and addressed climate
change in some form. Those films are “Barbie,” “Mission:
Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1,” and “Nyad.”<br>
<br>
In the case of “Barbie,” the teenaged Sasha dismantles Barbie’s
view of reality by telling her “you’re killing the planet with
your glorification of rampant consumerism,” a laugh line that
still feels rooted in the real world. “Dead Reckoning’s” Kittridge
warns Ethan Hunt about the “war for the last of our dwindling
energy, drinkable water, breathable air.” And in “Nyad,” Jodie
Foster’s Bonnie bluntly name checks global warming as the reason
“the box jellyfish came up off the shallow reef when we left
Cuba,” which later becomes a key plot point in Diane Nyad’s quest
to make the swim from Cuba.<br>
<br>
Good Energy back in 2022 released a playbook for screenwriters
about how they can more seamlessly introduce such concepts into
their writing. The organization believes that with this test,
writers can be rigorous in assessing their stories.<br>
<br>
“The Climate Reality Check does not suggest or require that every
story center climate change, nor does it prescribe what kinds of
stories filmmakers should tell. It simply measures whether our
current climate reality is being reflected on-screen. How that is
done, friends, is up to you,” the report reads.<br>
<br>
“I’m thrilled to see that several of my favorite Oscar-nominated
films from the last year passed the Climate Reality Check,” Good
Energy founder and CEO Anna Jane Joyner said in a statement. “It’s
a clear demonstration that acknowledging the climate crisis
on-screen can be done in entertaining and artful ways that are
authentic to the story. More proof that audiences crave seeing
their own world and experience, which now universally includes the
climate crisis, reflected on screen.”<br>
<br>
“Humans are storytelling animals and climate change is the biggest
story of our time. It affects every part of our lives and
threatens everything we depend on and hold dear,” said Matthew
Schneider-Mayerson, PhD, Associate Professor of English, Colby
College. “Yet it has been absent from the stories we consume. The
Climate Reality Check is a simple, illuminating, and powerful tool
that can be used to evaluate any group of narratives — from films
and TV shows to video games and novels — for their reflection of
our climate reality. In this way, the Climate Reality Check
provides a new and necessary perspective on storytelling in and
for a world on fire.”<br>
<br>
The Climate Reality Check was created by Anna Jane Joyner, Carmiel
Banasky, Bruno Olmedo Quiroga, and Matthew Schneider-Mayerson.<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/bechdel-test-climate-change-film-good-energy-1234958880/">https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/bechdel-test-climate-change-film-good-energy-1234958880/</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>March 2, 2005 </b></i></font>
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<font face="Calibri"> </font> March 2, 2005: Rick Piltz resigns
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reports on climate change.<br>
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