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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 17, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ Antarctic severe ramifications - recent papers - immanent
changes ]</i><br>
<b>As Antarctic Blue Ocean Approaches, Global Ocean Circulation
System Weakens</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Mar 16, 2024<br>
Up until 2014, Antarctic Sea Ice Area exhibited a slow yearly
increase. Then the system broke. <br>
<br>
Since then, there have been three years of record low sea ice and
two years of very high sea ice; basically variability or whiplashing
has more than doubled.<br>
<br>
The major problem for the global climate is that with record low sea
ice formation and record low sea ice area circumventing Antarctica,
there is much less dense water created from salt rejection as sea
ice forms. Thus, less water sinks to the abyss, in fact over 30%
less in the Weddell Sea; thus formation of Antarctica Bottom Water
(AABW) is reduced about 15%. This slows the Global Meridional
Overturning Circulation (Global MOC) and has profound effects on
global climate stability.<br>
<br>
Very serious indeed. <br>
<br>
There are also many problems local to Antarctica as well, such as
enhanced wave action erosion (melting) and calving of ice sheets,
disruptions to phytoplankton, mass mortality of emperor penguins, to
name a few. <br>
<br>
However, by far the most profound and far-reaching problem is the
MOC reduction and global climate instability, with cascading
feedbacks much more likely.<br>
<br>
Most important articles discussed in this video:<br>
<br>
“There are growing fears of an alarming shift in Antarctic sea ice”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2421376-there-are-growing-fears-of-an-alarming-shift-in-antarctic-sea-ice/">https://www.newscientist.com/article/2421376-there-are-growing-fears-of-an-alarming-shift-in-antarctic-sea-ice/</a><br>
<br>
“Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind
and sea-ice changes”:<br>
Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon
sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell
Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea
Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form
on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an
observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since
1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is
probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water
production over southern continental shelf associated with a greater
than 40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate…”: <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf</a><br>
<br>
“Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic
meltwater”: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158">https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158</a>...<br>
<br>
“Extensive melting of West Antarctic ice sheet now looks
unavoidable”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2398913-extensive-melting-of-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-now-looks-unavoidable/">https://www.newscientist.com/article/2398913-extensive-melting-of-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-now-looks-unavoidable/</a><br>
<br>
“Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting
over the twenty-first century”: …We find that rapid ocean warming,
at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed
over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in
ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet
stability...”: <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf</a><br>
<br>
“Emperor penguin colonies lost all their chicks due to ice breakup”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/">https://www.newscientist.com/article/</a>...<br>
<br>
“Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea
ice extent in 2023”: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/</a>...<br>
<br>
“Impacts of recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Extremes”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meet">https://agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meet</a>...<br>
<br>
“Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea
Ice”: In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced extremely
low sea ice cover in multiple summers. These low events were
preceded by a multidecadal positive trend that culminated in record
high ice coverage in 2014. This abrupt transition has led some
authors to suggest that Antarctic sea ice has undergone a regime
shift… We find that the standard deviation of the summer sea ice
record has doubled from 0.31 million km2 in 1979–2006 to 0.76
million km2 for 2007–22. This increased variance is accompanied by a
longer season-to-season sea ice memory. The atmosphere is the
primary driver of Antarctic sea ice variability, but using a linear
predictive model we show that sea ice changes cannot be explained by
the atmosphere alone. Identifying whether a regime shift has
occurred is difficult without a complete understanding of the
physical mechanism of change. However, the statistical changes that
we demonstrate (i.e., increased variance and autocor- relation, and
a changed response to atmospheric forcing), as well as the increased
spatial coherence noted by previous re- search, are indicators based
on dynamical systems theory of an abrupt critical transition. Thus,
our analysis is further evidence in support of a changed Antarctic
sea ice system.”:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/Downloads/clim-JCLI-D-23-0479.1%20(1).pdf">https://journals.ametsoc.org/Downloads/clim-JCLI-D-23-0479.1%20(1).pdf</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc_rtkspPME">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc_rtkspPME</a>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<i>[ Oh drat. A new condition ]</i><br>
<b>A single Antarctic heatwave or storm can noticeably raise the sea
level</b><br>
Published: February 20, 2024 <br>
A heat wave in Greenland and a storm in Antarctica. These kinds of
individual weather “events” are increasingly being supercharged by a
warming climate. But despite being short-term events they can also
have a much longer-term effect on the world’s largest ice sheets,
and may even lead to tipping points being crossed in the polar
regions.<br>
<br>
We have just published research looking at these sudden changes in
the ice sheets and how they may impact what we know about sea level
rise. One reason this is so important is that the global sea level
is predicted to rise by anywhere between 28 cm and 100cm by the year
2100, according to the IPCC. This is a huge range – 70 cm extra
sea-level rise would affect many millions more people.<br>
<br>
Partly this uncertainty is because we simply don’t know whether
we’ll curb our emissions or continue with business as usual. But
while possible social and economic changes are at least factored in
to the above numbers, the IPCC acknowledges its estimate does not
take into account deeply uncertain ice-sheet processes.<br>
<br>
<b>Sudden accelerations</b><br>
The sea is rising for two main reasons. First, the water itself is
very slightly expanding as it warms, with this process responsible
for about a third of the total expected sea-level rise.<br>
Scientists have long known that there is a potential for sudden
accelerations in the rate at which ice is lost from Greenland and
Antarctica which could cause considerably more sea-level rise:
perhaps a metre or more in a century. Once started, this would be
impossible to stop.<br>
<br>
Although there is a lot of uncertainty over how likely this is,
there is some evidence that it happened about 130,000 years ago, the
last time global temperatures were anything close to the present
day. We cannot discount the risk.<br>
<br>
To improve predictions of rises in sea level we therefore need a
clearer understanding of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. In
particular, we need to review if there are weather or climate
changes that we can already identify that might lead to abrupt
increases in the speed of mass loss.<br>
<br>
<b>Weather can have long-term effects</b><br>
Our new study, involving an international team of 29 ice-sheet
experts and published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth &
Environment, reviews evidence gained from observational data,
geological records, and computer model simulations.<br>
<br>
We found several examples from the past few decades where weather
“events” – a single storm, a heatwave – have led to important
long-term changes.<br>
<br>
The ice sheets are built from millennia of snowfall that gradually
compresses and starts to flow towards the ocean. The ice sheets,
like any glacier, respond to changes in the atmosphere and the ocean
when the ice is in contact with sea water.<br>
<br>
These changes could take place over a matter of hours or days or
they may be long-term changes from months to years or thousands of
years. And processes may interact with each other on different
timescales, so that a glacier may gradually thin and weaken but
remain stable until an abrupt short-term event pushes it over the
edge and it rapidly collapses.<br>
<br>
Because of these different timescales, we need to coordinate
collecting and using more diverse types of data and knowledge.<br>
<br>
Historically, we thought of ice sheets as slow-moving and delayed in
their response to climate change. In contrast, our research found
that these huge glacial ice masses respond in far quicker and more
unexpected ways as the climate warms, similarly to the frequency and
intensity of hurricanes and heatwaves responding to changes with the
climate.<br>
<br>
Ground and satellite observations show that sudden heatwaves and
large storms can have long-lasting effects on ice sheets. For
example a heatwave in July 2023 meant at one point 67% of the
Greenland ice sheet surface was melting, compared with around 20%
for average July conditions. In 2022 unusually warm rain fell on the
Conger ice shelf in Antarctica, causing it to disappear almost
overnight.<br>
These weather-driven events have long “tails”. Ice sheets don’t
follow a simple uniform response to climate warming when they melt
or slide into the sea. Instead their changes are punctuated by
short-term extremes.<br>
<br>
For example, brief periods of melting in Greenland can melt far more
ice and snow than is replaced the following winter. Or the
catastrophic break-up of ice shelves along the Antarctic coast can
rapidly unplug much larger amounts of ice from further inland.<br>
<br>
Failing to adequately account for this short-term variability might
mean we underestimate how much ice will be lost in future.<br>
<br>
<b>What happens next</b><br>
Scientists must prioritise research on ice-sheet variability. This
means better ice-sheet and ocean monitoring systems that can capture
the effects of short but extreme weather events.<br>
<br>
This will come from new satellites as well as field data. We’ll also
need better computer models of how ice sheets will respond to
climate change. Fortunately there are already some promising global
collaborative initiatives.<br>
We don’t know exactly how much the global sea level is going to rise
some decades in advance, but understanding more about the ice sheets
will help to refine our predictions.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-antarctic-heatwave-or-storm-can-noticeably-raise-the-sea-level-223768">https://theconversation.com/a-single-antarctic-heatwave-or-storm-can-noticeably-raise-the-sea-level-223768</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ PDF article ]</i><br>
<b>Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets</b><br>
Abstract <br>
The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on
various timescales and is important for projections of sea level
rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future
ice-sheet mass changes.In this Review, we explore the degree to
which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events
reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing
climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in
atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks
that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For
example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting
can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves,
grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice
Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet
collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with
increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt
anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence
of increased interannual climate variability on extreme
glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately
account for such variability can result in biased projections of
multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim
to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop
sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by
observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across
various timescales.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00509-7.epdf?sharing_token=EJZ02zq3kFQO4XKwZVTBLdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NlXBkse_V2fGVmyGVwGFcXe8LM4zjSaytnzbxkpU3vleMHbbCbjypxjcJ3p1wJddVoe1nKU4klsbQfMwCvE-m9plem7c8GygdxBfIr9KNkFEXV23v6oF28LZQkvsWpQm4%3D">https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00509-7.epdf?sharing_token=EJZ02zq3kFQO4XKwZVTBLdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NlXBkse_V2fGVmyGVwGFcXe8LM4zjSaytnzbxkpU3vleMHbbCbjypxjcJ3p1wJddVoe1nKU4klsbQfMwCvE-m9plem7c8GygdxBfIr9KNkFEXV23v6oF28LZQkvsWpQm4%3D</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i>[ Activism ratchets up ]</i><br>
<b>Climate activists across Europe block access to North Sea oil
infrastructure</b><br>
Blockades at facilities in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and
Sweden, with protests in Scotland and action expected in Denmark<br>
Damien Gayle Environment correspondent<br>
Sat 16 Mar 2024 <br>
Climate activists in four countries are blocking access to North
Sea oil infrastructure as part of a coordinated pan-European civil
disobedience protest.<br>
<br>
Blockades have been taking place at oil and gas terminals,
refineries and ports in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and
Sweden, in protest at the continued exploitation of North Sea
fossil fuel deposits.<br>
<br>
Further actions were expected in Denmark, while in Scotland
activists staged banner drops calling for an end to the
exploitation of North Sea oil and gas.<br>
<br>
The protest comes in the same week a report found none of the big
fossil fuel producing countries in the region had plans to stop
drilling soon enough to meet the 1.5C (2.7F) global heating target
set by the Paris climate accords.<br>
</p>
<p>Under the campaign North Sea Fossil Free acts of civil
disobedience are happening all around the North Sea,” Extinction
Rebellion said.<br>
<br>
“The governments of these six countries are permitting new fossil
extraction infrastructure, harming not only the North Sea
ecosystem, but also committing the whole world to dangerous levels
of warming.<br>
<br>
“Activists have come together today in a series of actions –
unfolding across the day – to demand all North Sea oil countries
align their drilling plans with the Paris agreement now.”<br>
<br>
In Norway, dozens of activists blocked the road entrance to the
petroleum refinery in Rafnes, on the country’s south-east coast.
Others were braving snowy conditions to block tankers from docking
at the facility.<br>
<br>
Jonas Kittelsen, a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion Norway,
said: “I’m ashamed to be a Norwegian. Norway profits massively
from aggressively expanding our oil and gas sector, causing mass
suffering and death globally. My government portrays us as better
than the rest of the world, which we are not.”<br>
<br>
In the Netherlands, Extinction Rebellion and Scientist Rebellion
were blocking the main access roads to Pernis refinery, the
largest refinery in Europe, owned by Shell, which plans to
increase and expand its North Sea oil and gas production.<br>
<br>
Bram Kroezen, a spokesperson for XR Netherlands, said: “The fossil
industry and our governments want us to believe that gas from the
North Sea is clean, but clean gas is a dirty lie.”<br>
</p>
<p>In Germany, activists in white overalls from the Ende Gelände
climate protest group blocked access to the floating liquified
natural gas terminal at Brunsbüttel; and in Sweden XR activists
were blocking the oil harbour in Gothenburg.<br>
<br>
In Scotland, local XR groups staged a series of banner drops at
locations they described as of “strategic importance” to plans to
expand oil and gas production. The UK government has handed out
dozens of new licenses for oil and gas exploitation off Scotland’s
north-east coast since late last year.<br>
<br>
This week a report by the campaign group Oil Change International
found the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark had
failed to align their oil and gas policies with their climate
promises under the Paris agreement.<br>
<br>
The report found that policies in Norway and the UK were furthest
from the Paris climate agreement because the countries were
“aggressively” exploring and licensing new oil and gas fields.<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/16/climate-activists-across-europe-block-access-to-north-sea-oil-infrastructure">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/16/climate-activists-across-europe-block-access-to-north-sea-oil-infrastructure</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - the impossible
carbon tax ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>March 17, 2013 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> March 17, 2013: New York Times
columnist Tom Friedman muses on the economic benefits of a federal
carbon tax.<br>
<blockquote><b>It’s Lose-Lose vs. Win-Win-Win-Win-Win</b><br>
Thomas L. Friedman<br>
By Thomas L. Friedman<br>
March 16, 2013<br>
ONE of my favorite quotes about the state of U.S. politics was
offered a couple years ago by Gerald Seib, a Wall Street Journal
columnist, when he observed that “America and its political
leaders, after two decades of failing to come together to solve
big problems, seem to have lost faith in their ability to do so. A
political system that expects failure doesn’t try very hard to
produce anything else.” That’s us today — our entire political
system is guilty of the “soft bigotry of low expectations” for
ourselves.<br>
<br>
I raise this now because it strikes me as crazy that one of the
obvious solutions to our budget, energy and environmental problems
— the one that would be the least painful and have the best
long-term impact (a carbon tax) — is off the table. Meanwhile, the
solution that is as dumb as the day is long — a budget sequester
that slashes spending indiscriminately — is on the table.<br>
<br>
Shrinking the tax deduction for charity is on the table. Shrinking
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for the poor are on the
table. But a carbon tax that could close the deficit and clean the
air, weaken petro-dictators, strengthen the dollar, drive
clean-tech innovation and still leave some money to lower
corporate and income taxes is off the table. So the solutions that
are lose-lose and divisive are on the table, while the solution
that is win-win-win-win-win — and has both liberal and
conservative supporters — is off the table.<br>
<br>
Writing in this newspaper in support of a carbon tax back in 2007,
N. Gregory Mankiw, the Harvard economist, who was a senior adviser
to President George W. Bush and to Mitt Romney, argued that “the
idea of using taxes to fix problems, rather than merely raise
government revenue, has a long history. The British economist
Arthur Pigou advocated such corrective taxes to deal with
pollution in the early 20th century. In his honor, economics
textbooks now call them ‘Pigovian taxes.’ Using a Pigovian tax to
address global warming is also an old idea. It was proposed as far
back as 1992 by Martin S. Feldstein on the editorial page of The
Wall Street Journal. ... Those vying for elected office, however,
are reluctant to sign on to this agenda. Their political
consultants are no fans of taxes, Pigovian or otherwise.
Republican consultants advise using the word ‘tax’ only if
followed immediately by the word ‘cut.’ Democratic consultants
recommend the word ‘tax’ be followed by ‘on the rich.’ ”<br>
Yes, to win passage of any carbon tax, Republicans would insist
that it be revenue neutral — to be offset entirely by cuts in
corporate taxes and taxes on personal income. But maybe they could
be persuaded otherwise. In an ideal world, you would have 45
percent go to pay down the deficit so that we don’t have to cut
entitlements as much — appealing to liberals and greens — and have
45 percent go to reducing corporate and income taxes — to
encourage work and investment and appeal to conservatives. The
remaining 10 percent could be rebated to low-income households for
whom such a tax would be a burden.<br>
According to the Center for Climate and Electricity Policy at the
nonpartisan Resources for the Future, a tax of $25 per ton of
carbon-dioxide emitted — through the combustion of fossil fuels
used in electricity production, commercial and residential heating
and transportation — “would raise approximately $125 billion
annually.” This $125 billion “could allow federal personal income
tax reductions of about 15 percent or corporate income tax
reductions of about 70 percent, if all carbon tax revenues were
used to replace current tax revenues. Alternatively, the federal
deficit could be reduced by approximately $1.25 trillion over 10
years” — roughly what we are trying to do through the foolish
sequester. Such a tax would add about 21 cents per gallon of
gasoline and about 1.2 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity. It
could be phased in gradually as the economy improves.<br>
Experts believe that the mere signal of a carbon tax would get
companies to become more energy efficient. And that’s the point.
As part of any grand bargain — which will have to include spending
cuts and tax increases — introducing a carbon tax into the mix
makes all kinds of options easier and smarter.<br>
<br>
Alas, right now both sides are trying to inflict maximum pain on
the other, rather than framing the debate as: “Here’s the world
we’re living in; here’s what we need to thrive; and, if we cut and
tax here, we can invest in these 21st-century growth engines over
here.” Our goal is not to balance the budget. It’s to make America
great.<br>
SO how come the best ideas are off the table? (Blessedly,
Representative Henry Waxman, a Democrat of California, is now
working to get some kind of carbon tax on the table.) Several
reasons, argues Adam Garfinkle, editor of The American Interest
and author of a smart new e-book, “Broken: American Political
Dysfunction and What to Do About It.”<br>
<br>
First, because our democracy today is perverted more than ever by
deep-pocketed lobbies and oligopolies. So, “in order to get and
stay elected today, you have to raise huge sums of money from
corporations, wealthy individuals and dues-laden unions,”
Garfinkle notes, and all that money leads to “twisted
decision-making at the high-politics level” and “regulatory
capture” at the bureaucratic-administrative level. The fossil
fuel, auto and power companies have bought a lot of politicians to
block a carbon tax.<br>
<br>
The only way around them, argues Garfinkle, would be for leaders
to galvanize the public, but that requires building “governing
coalitions” in the center rather than “political coalitions” that
can get you elected but little else after that. Obama is belatedly
trying to do that; the Republican Party hasn’t even tried. “This
is what real leaders do,” said Garfinkle. “They change the
conversation.” They don’t just read the polls; they shape the
polls.<br>
<br>
But we can’t put this all on lobbyists. It’s also our generation.
“We’re the most self-indulgent generation in American history,”
argues Garfinkle, always demanding more services than we’re ready
to pay for. “Too many of us want to be unbound by broader social
obligations, but the network of those obligations creates the
moral ballast that makes good governance possible.” <br>
<br>
As Nathan Gardels and Nicolas Berggruen note in their insightful
book, “Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century: A Middle Way
Between West and East,” we prefer a “Diet Coke culture — sweetness
without calories, consumption without savings and safety nets
without taxes.” No wonder anything hard or smart is off the table.
We pushed it there.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/opinion/sunday/friedman-its-lose-lose-vs-win-win-win-win-win.html?_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/opinion/sunday/friedman-its-lose-lose-vs-win-win-win-win-win.html?_r=0</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/opinion/sunday/friedman-its-lose-lose-vs-win-win-win-win-win.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dE0.3KHa.wrz4SU5CBdYv&smid=url-share">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/opinion/sunday/friedman-its-lose-lose-vs-win-win-win-win-win.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dE0.3KHa.wrz4SU5CBdYv&smid=url-share</a><br>
<br>
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