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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 18, 2024</b></i></font>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<i>[ First suggestion: "don't be a nut-job" ]</i><br>
<b>Thinking about 2024: What is Reasonable Preparation?</b><br>
American Resiliency<br>
Sep 14, 2023<br>
This is a longer and more serious video, talking about what makes
sense when we think about building resilience for the near future.
I share the scenarios for which I prepare, my mindset behind my
preparations, and the sort of goals I recommend for people who are
just starting out. <br>
If you are interested, this is the most recent update from NOAA
about the current El Nino system:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdR3UWpY5FQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdR3UWpY5FQ</a><br>
<p> - - <br>
</p>
<i>[ NOAA Climate Prediction Center - March 11, 2024 -- this is a
good document to open ]</i><br>
<b>ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions </b><br>
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions<br>
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)<br>
Pacific SST Outlook<br>
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks<br>
- -<br>
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch<br>
El Niño conditions are observed.*updated monthly<br>
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across
the<br>
central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<br>
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El
Niño.<br>
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June
2024 (79%<br>
chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August
2024 (55%<br>
chance).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ A research paper from the great young scientist Kaitlin
Naughten ]</i><br>
<b>Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting
over the twenty-first century</b><br>
Kaitlin A. Naughten <br>
<blockquote>Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the
Amundsen Sea is<br>
currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution
to sea-level<br>
rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive
suite of<br>
future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We
find that<br>
rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate,
is likely<br>
committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases
in<br>
ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet
stability. When<br>
internal climate variability is considered, there is no
significant difference<br>
between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious
targets of<br>
the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of
greenhouse<br>
gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could
lead to<br>
the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Geo Girl offers quick atmosphere lesson ]</i><br>
<b>Significance of the Greenhouse Effect on Earth & Other
Planets | GEO GIRL</b><br>
GEO GIRL<br>
Mar 17, 2024<br>
How does the greenhouse effect actually work on Earth? How has it
changed through Earth's history? Do other planets have a greenhouse
effect? In this video, I cover how energy flows to and from Earth,
the significance of the greenhouse effect for sustaining life on
Earth, how the strength of Earth's greenhouse effect changed through
time, the differences between Earth's greenhouse effect and that of
nearby planets, and the current perturbation to Earth's greenhouse
effect due to human greenhouse gas emissions as well as the
potential progression of climate change as the C cycle attempts to
balance itself back out. <br>
<blockquote>0:00 Earth’s Energy Balance<br>
2:59 Earth’s NOT in Energy Balance<br>
3:49 Earth’s Greenhouse Effect<br>
4:49 Greenhouse Effect = GOOD<br>
5:58 Other Atmospheric Effects?<br>
6:31 Actual Energy Flows on Earth<br>
9:28 Greenhouse Effect on Other Planets<br>
11:07 Earth’s Greenhouse Effect Over Time<br>
12:55 Consequences of C Imbalance<br>
16:05 Inducing C Cycle Balance<br>
</blockquote>
References: <br>
Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change, 4th Ed.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://amzn.to/41CDHVz">https://amzn.to/41CDHVz</a><br>
Richard Wolfson, 2007- Earth's Changing Climate:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2">https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2</a>...<br>
Richard Wolfson, 2011- Energy, environment, and climate: <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&">https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&</a>...<br>
Latake et al., 2015- The greenhouse effect and its impacts on
environment: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.academia.edu/download/879">https://www.academia.edu/download/879</a>...<br>
<br>
GEO GIRL Website: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.geogirlscience.com/">https://www.geogirlscience.com/</a> (visit my website
to see all my courses, shop merch, learn more about me, & donate
to support the channel if you'd like!)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUIJLweSg6I">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUIJLweSg6I</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ humor from Yellow Dot studios - a puppet show 2 min video ]</i><br>
<b>Gas Nozzle BF</b><br>
Yellow Dot Studios<br>
Sep 6, 2023<br>
SUBSCRIBE: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/YellowDot-Subscribe">https://bit.ly/YellowDot-Subscribe</a><br>
<br>
It's time to break up with Big Oil. <br>
___<br>
ABOUT:<br>
Yellow Dot Studios is a non-profit production studio founded by
Academy Award-winning writer-director-producer Adam McKay to fight
back on climate disinformation and inaction.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHKVNRztmT4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHKVNRztmT4</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - USA Today hunker-down
expectations ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>March 18, 2013 </b></i></font> <br>
</font>
<p>USA Today reports: "Could the USA deal with a Hurricane Katrina
every two years? Such a scenario is possible by the end of the
century due to climate change, according to a study published
Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/03/18/storm-surge-hurricane-climate-change-global-warming/1997113/">http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/03/18/storm-surge-hurricane-climate-change-global-warming/1997113/</a>
<br>
</p>
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