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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March</b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b> 27, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ reading collapse studies ]</i><br>
<b>Approaching the Collapse Threshold: Extreme Melting and
Instability Measured in NE Greenland Glacier</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Mar 25, 2024<br>
A significant study on the so-called 79NG (79 degrees latitude North
Greenland) coastal glacier was just released, in an open source
peer-reviewed paper.<br>
<br>
General news-release article:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html">https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html</a><br>
<br>
Peer-reviewed scientific paper article:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf">https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf</a><br>
<br>
Ground based on-ice measurements, airborne survey measurements, and
satellite measurements are verified against each other, and show how
fast this 79NG glacier is thinning, moving, and melting. <br>
<br>
This glacier is quickly withering away due to the onslaught of
extremely high air temperatures melting the surface of the glacier
creating numerous glacial lakes on the surface, which are drilling
through the ice draining the water to the bedrock below and into the
ocean. <br>
<br>
Just as significant for the ice melt, the warming oceans below are
greatly accelerating the basal ice melt (ice at the bottom of the
floating parts of the glacier in contact with ocean water). In fact,
near the center line longitudinal cross section of the ice, a 500
meter high cavity has been melted into the bottom of the glacier,
and this cavity of upside down crevice has come to within 190 meter
of the glacier surface. <br>
<br>
When it penetrates through the surface, the glacier will likely
cleave into two parts, and what often happens is the whole thing
shatters into a multitude of smaller pieces that quickly cascade out
into the ocean and quickly melt out.<br>
<br>
Overall, the thickness of the glacier has decreased by 160 meters,
but that is outside of the 500 meter cavity region, but it seems to
me that the ice over the cavity region is by far the weakest spot or
Achilles Heel of the whole thing.<br>
<br>
Not good…<br>
<br>
What do with expect, with fossil fuel production at record highs,
and at record acceleration rates? <br>
We need to expect chaos.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr6pXUrJZH8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr6pXUrJZH8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Atlantic currents carry warm water to the North ]</i><br>
<b>Study documents slowing of Atlantic currents</b><br>
by Cazzy Medley, University of Maryland<br>
MARCH 25, 2024<br>
While scientists have observed oceans heating up for decades and
theorized that their rising temperatures weaken global currents, a
new study led by a University of Maryland researcher documents for
the first time a significant slowing of a crucial ocean current
system that plays a role in regulating Earth's climate.<br>
Published recently in Frontiers in Marine Science, the paper led by
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) scientist
Alexey Mishonov examined decades of data on the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) found in the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) World Ocean Atlas.<br>
<br>
Mishonov and co-authors Dan Seidov and James Reagan from NOAA
discovered that the current system's flow remained stable and
consistent from 1955 to 1994. However, in the mid-1990s, AMOC
strength began to decline and the current began to move slower,
which the scientists attribute to the continued warming of the
ocean's surface and the accompanying changes in the salinity of its
upper layers.<br>
<br>
AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, carries warm water toward
higher latitudes, releasing heat into the atmosphere and bringing
cold waters to the tropics. This forms a continuous loop that
redistributes heat across the ocean.<br>
<br>
"If AMOC slows down, the heat exchange will be reduced, which in
turn will affect the climate, causing hot areas to get hotter and
cold areas to get colder," said Mishonov. This could lead to global
climate changes, sea level rise, impact on marine ecosystems and
other climate feedbacks.<br>
A similar, but highly exaggerated and fictionalized dynamic powered
the plot of the 2004 disaster blockbuster "The Day After Tomorrow,"
in which a flow of fresh water from melting glaciers led to the
sudden collapse of North Atlantic Ocean currents, leading to
outlandish effects like global superstorms and the sudden appearance
of glaciers across much of the northern hemisphere.<br>
<br>
"Of course, most climate scientists do not share these Hollywood
fantasies, and no one inside scientific communities believes that
anything remotely similar can happen," Mishonov said of the film.
"However, most do believe that substantial slowing of AMOC might
result in significant climate change that cannot be foreseen and
predicted. Therefore, increased interest in AMOC functionality is
fully warranted."<br>
<br>
Mishonov and co-authors believe that the key to understanding the
ocean climate trajectory is identifying how the North Atlantic
climate responds to ongoing surface warming over decadal timespans.<br>
<br>
The researchers used World Ocean Atlas data covering 1955–2017 as
well as climate reanalysis data on decadal wind stress and sea
surface height fields from UMD's Simple Ocean Data Assimilation
project to determine fingerprints of the North Atlantic's
circulation and AMOC's dynamics.<br>
<br>
The authors found that although the entire North Atlantic is
systematically warming, the climate trajectories in its different
subregions reveal radically different characteristics of regional
decadal variability, reflecting diverse climate patterns. For
example, while the temperature has gradually increased from 1955 to
2017, it dropped in the more northern Atlantic from 1955 to 1994,
then rose from 1995 to 2017. Similar patterns are also visible in
salinity and density.<br>
<br>
This variation in climate characteristics indicates that the current
situation may not predict what the future may hold, including
whether AMOC's slowdown will persist, accelerate or diminish in the
next decade. However, the paper suggests that scenarios involving
the slowdown or collapse of AMOC cannot be dismissed. Next, the
authors plan to explore other regions of the global ocean to look
for similar patterns in long-term temperature and salinity
variability.<br>
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.html">https://phys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ Ice melts in a warming World ]</i><br>
<b>Study reports enormous ice loss from Greenland glacier</b><br>
by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres<br>
MARCH 22, 2024<br>
Ground-based measuring devices and aircraft radar operated in the
far northeast of Greenland show how much ice the 79° N-Glacier is
losing. According to measurements conducted by the Alfred Wegener
Institute, the thickness of the glacier has decreased by more than
160 meters since 1998. Warm ocean water flowing under the glacier
tongue is melting the ice from below.<br>
High air temperatures cause lakes to form on the surface, whose
water flows through huge channels in the ice into the ocean. One
channel reached a height of 500 meters, while the ice above was only
190 meters thick, as a research team has now reported in The
Cryosphere.<br>
A rustic camp in northeast Greenland was one of the bases for
deploying autonomous measuring devices with modern radar technology
by helicopter in a part of the 79° N-Glacier that is difficult to
access. Measurement flights with the polar aircraft of the Alfred
Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
(AWI), and satellite data were also incorporated into a scientific
study that has now been published.<br>
<br>
This study examines how global warming affects the stability of a
floating ice tongue. This is of great importance for the remaining
ice shelves in Greenland as well as those in Antarctica, as
instability of the ice shelf usually results in an acceleration of
the ice flow, which would lead to a greater sea level rise.<br>
<br>
"Since 2016, we have been using autonomous instruments to carry out
radar measurements on the 79° N-Glacier, from which we can determine
melt and thinning rates," says AWI glaciologist Dr. Ole Zeising, the
first author of the publication. "In addition, we used aircraft
radar data from 1998, 2018, and 2021, showing changes in ice
thickness. We were able to measure that the 79° N-Glacier has
changed significantly in recent decades under the influence of
global warming."<br>
The study shows how the combination of a warm ocean inflow and a
warming atmosphere affects the floating ice tongue of the 79°
N-Glacier in northeast Greenland. Only recently, an AWI oceanography
team published a modeling study on this subject. The unique data set
of observations now presented shows that extremely high melt rates
occur over a large area near the transition to the ice sheet.<br>
<br>
In addition, large channels form on the underside of the ice from
the land side, probably because the water from huge lakes drains
through the glacier ice. Both processes have led to a strong
thinning of the glacier in recent decades.<br>
<br>
Due to extreme melt rates, the ice of the floating glacier tongue
has become 32 % thinner since 1998, especially from the grounding
line where the ice comes into contact with the ocean. In addition, a
500-meter-high channel has formed on the underside of the ice, which
spreads towards the inland.<br>
<br>
The researchers attribute these changes to warm ocean currents in
the cavity below the floating tongue and to the runoff of surface
meltwater as a result of atmospheric warming. A surprising finding
was that melt rates have decreased since 2018. A possible cause for
this is a colder ocean inflow.<br>
<br>
"The fact that this system reacts on such short time scales is
astonishing for systems that are actually inert, such as glaciers,"
says Prof Dr. Angelika Humbert, who is also involved in the study.<br>
<br>
"We expect that this floating glacier tongue will break apart over
the next few years to decades," explains the AWI glaciologist. "We
have begun to study this process in detail to gain maximum insight
into the course of the process. Although there have been several
such disintegrations of ice shelves, we have only been able to
collect data subsequently. As a scientific community, we are now in
a better position by having built up a really good database before
the collapse."<br>
<br>
More information: Ole Zeising et al, Extreme melting at Greenland's
largest floating ice tongue, The Cryosphere (2024). DOI:
10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html">https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ From the journal The Cryosphere ]</i><br>
<b>Extreme melting at Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue</b><br>
Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Nils Dörr, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage,
Ralph Timmermann, and<br>
Angelika Humbert<br>
Received: 16 June 2023 – Discussion started: 28 July 2023<br>
Revised: 9 December 2023 – Accepted: 12 January 2024 – Published: 22
March 2024<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract.</b> The 79° North Glacier
(Nioghalvfjerdsbrae,<br>
79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating<br>
tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier has been considered <br>
exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies have<br>
shown that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By<br>
conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar<br>
measurements in conjunction with satellite remote-sensing<br>
observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of<br>
79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high<br>
subglacial channel has grown since ∼ 2010 and has caused<br>
surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a−1. <br>
Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a−1 over
a period<br>
of 17 d within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line,<br>
where the ice has thinned by 32 % since 1998. We find a<br>
heterogeneous distribution of melt rates, likely due to
variability <br>
in water column thickness and channelization of the<br>
ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal<br>
melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into<br>
the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have<br>
led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow<br>
of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of<br>
79NG’s floating ice tongue near the grounding line over the<br>
last 2 decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of<br>
the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due<br>
to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due<br>
to the warming of the atmosphere.</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf">https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i>[ </i><i>Sabine has optimism bias - </i><i>It may be easier
to repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics (joke) than to stop fossil
fuel combustion ]</i><br>
<b>Should I be terrified of climate change? Should you be
terrified?</b><br>
Sabine Hossenfelder<br>
Mar 26, 2024 #sciencenews #science #climate<br>
I have now come across a bunch of articles in which scientists are
more or less explicitly advocating that we scare people into
action on climate change. To me this is a step from information to
manipulation. Let’s have a look. <br>
paper <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2312093121">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2312093121</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbSEC6VN4Rs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbSEC6VN4Rs</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ When it's time to resettle elsewhere - (ASAP) American Society
of Adaptation Professionals ]</i><br>
<b>Connecting and Supporting the People Who Build Climate Resilience</b><br>
What We Do<br>
The American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) is the
professional home for people who are preparing for climate impacts
in their jobs, in their communities, and in their fields of
practice. Find out how we're connecting and supporting the people
who build climate resilience.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://adaptationprofessionals.org">https://adaptationprofessionals.org</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ What is Europe doing? ]</i><br>
<b>Too far or not far enough? These are Europe’s most and least
popular climate policies</b><br>
By Rosie Frost<br>
25/03/2024 <br>
Fears of a ‘green backlash’ at the European elections are unfounded,
according to a new survey.<br>
<br>
Climate change is set to be one of the topics that dominate European
election campaigns this summer.<br>
<br>
But when voters hit the ballot box this June, some believe fatigue
will see them turn towards politicians who roll back climate
policies, scale down climate ambitions or ignore environmental
action entirely.<br>
<br>
A new report from researchers at Oxford University, Humboldt
University Berlin, and Hertie School Berlin set out to uncover
whether this is really true.<br>
<br>
Researchers surveyed 15,000 people across Germany, France and Poland
on how they felt about current climate policies. Voters were quizzed
on whether they think measures go too far or not far enough. They
were also asked about 40 specific policies to find out which were
the most and least popular.<br>
<br>
The report’s authors say their results refute theories of a ‘broad
green backlash’ ahead of this year’s European Parliament election.<br>
<b><br>
Concrete actions and climate concerns</b><br>
Debate over environmental policy in the last few months has led to
speculation that people across Europe are tired of green policies.
But researchers found that this wasn’t the case across the three
countries they surveyed, seeing no widespread backlash against
climate policy.<br>
<br>
Most still wanted more ambitious climate policy and would support
concrete measures to bring emissions down. Asked whether existing
climate policies have already gone too far or not far enough, a
majority - 57 per cent in France, 53 per cent in Germany and 51 per
cent in Poland - were in favour of further action.<br>
- -<br>
The majority support for more ambitious climate policy was mirrored
by people’s concern over the impact of climate change on their
lives. Around 60 per cent of people in Poland and Germany said they
are already negatively impacted by climate change or expect to be in
the next five to 10 years.<br>
<br>
The impact of recent drought and drinking water shortages push that
number up to 80 per cent in France.<br>
<br>
There is a sizable minority that is against more ambitious climate
action in all three countries. Around 30 per cent in Germany and
Poland and slightly less at 23 per cent in France.<br>
<br>
However, researchers say this group is “relatively stable over
time”. The number of people in opposition doesn’t seem to have
changed from similar surveys in 2021 and 2022 despite the narrative
of growing backlash against climate policies ahead of the election.<br>
<br>
And there is little evidence that this opposition is based in
material concerns like employment, they add.<br>
<br>
<b>Which climate policies are the most and least popular?</b><br>
While a majority of people still abstractly support ambitious
action, their opinions vary when it comes to concrete climate
policies.<br>
<br>
Across all three countries, banning cars with internal combustion
engines ranked at the bottom of the list for voters. Regulatory
restrictions on gas and oil heating were particularly disliked in
Germany and Poland.<br>
<br>
Echoing earlier surveys, voters were also sceptical about carbon
pricing, with the idea of putting a price tag on emissions
especially unpopular for housing and transport.<br>
- -<br>
The most popular policies were investments in green infrastructure -
like the electricity grid or public transport. Voters also generally
support strategies like subsidies to help energy-intensive
industries decarbonise or produce clean energy tech like wind
turbines and solar panels.<br>
<br>
The survey also found backing for bans on private jets and - except
for in Poland - restrictions on short-haul flights.<br>
<br>
Overall, policies and regulations that didn’t directly impact
people’s everyday lives tended to be popular. These measures put the
pressure to reduce emissions on public authorities and big companies
rather than on consumers.<br>
<b><br>
Will rolling back green policies win voters?</b><br>
While the current narrative might make rolling back unpopular
climate policies seem like an easy win, the report’s authors argue
that the reality is more complicated than that.<br>
<br>
“Taking common armchair diagnoses about a green backlash at face
value would be a mistake,” they write, as most voters still support
more ambitious climate policy.<br>
<br>
“A European election campaign in which parties try to outbid each
other over who scales down their climate ambitions the most would
simply misdiagnose where voters stand on the issue.”<br>
<br>
Instead, the authors say that focusing on stronger green investment
and industrial policies would be popular. For unpopular policies
that need to be implemented to bring emissions down, “compensation
is key”.<br>
<br>
Across countries and party lines, voters are less opposed to climate
action if governments also help those hit hardest by the measures.<br>
<br>
“Parties should not waste the coming months outbidding each other
over how to cater to imagined climate fatigue but compete over
concrete recipes to green the economy,” they conclude.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/03/25/too-far-or-not-far-enough-these-are-europes-most-and-least-popular-climate-policies">https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/03/25/too-far-or-not-far-enough-these-are-europes-most-and-least-popular-climate-policies</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - misinformation debates ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>March 27, 2007 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> March 27, 2007: In a post ... about a
recent confrontation with Competitive Enterprise Institute honcho
Myron Ebell, blogger Mike Stark observes:<br>
<br>
"Upon reflection, I really think there are a couple of lessons for
progressives to be found in this five minute exchange.<br>
<br>
"First of all, when arguing with somebody that either has no
credibility or is not arguing a credible position, don't donate the
credibility they need to be seen as your equal."<br>
<br>
"You see, by calling his credibility into question immediately - and
not letting him up for air - well, I've got no proof, but I really
think that everyone in the room knew that Mr. Ebell had been
bettered. When we ask policy or science questions of these
charlatans, we give the impression that we care what they think. We
don't. We know they are rank liars, we're just wondering if they'll
be able to spin a sufficient answer. But these guys get millions of
dollars a year from the largest corporate titans precisely because
they have the skill to ink up the issue. Why let them show off?<br>
<br>
"Secondly, don't go out of your way to be nice or polite. Hell, I
won't afford these profit-gandists any respect on my blog, why the
hell should I do it face to face? A large part of their professional
career derives from their ability to mock me and the things I
believe in. The Competitive Enterprise Institute once liked global
warming to 'being invaded by space aliens' for example. By
addressing these people with the indignant scorn they deserve, you
project the moral superiority of your position. To many times it
seems that Democratic and progressive pundits are more interested in
being our opponents' friends than we are in vigorously arguing the
issues. In this media environment - when equal time is given to
global warming deniers... well, we just can't afford the small talk.<br>
<br>
"In the end, these guys are not good people. This isn't a case of
principled people disagreeing. At this point in the global warming
debate, the only principled disagreements to be had revolve around
what we should be doing to address the crisis. The Myron Ebells of
the world - the die-hard denialists... well, we need to move them
off the stage by marginalizing them at every opportunity."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-stark/global-warming-phooey_b_44407.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-stark/global-warming-phooey_b_44407.html</a>
<br>
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