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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>April </b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>2, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <br>
<i>[ Global sea level is up 3/10ths of an inch in the last year ]</i><br>
<b>NASA Analysis Sees Spike in 2023 Global Sea Level Due to El Niño</b><br>
March 21, 2024<br>
A long-term sea level dataset shows ocean surface heights continuing
to rise at faster and faster rates over decades of observations.<br>
<br>
Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters)
from 2022 to 2023, a relatively large jump due mostly to a warming
climate and the development of a strong El Niño. The total rise is
equivalent to draining a quarter of Lake Superior into the ocean
over the course of a year.<br>
<br>
This NASA-led analysis is based on a sea level dataset featuring
more than 30 years of satellite observations, starting with the
U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission, which launched in 1992. The
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich mission, which launched in November
2020, is the latest in the series of satellites that have
contributed to this sea level record.<br>
<br>
The data shows that global average sea level has risen a total of
about 4 inches (9.4 centimeters) since 1993. The rate of this
increase has also accelerated, more than doubling from 0.07 inches
(0.18 centimeters) per year in 1993 to the current rate of 0.17
inches (0.42 centimeters) per year.<br>
“Current rates of acceleration mean that we are on track to add
another 20 centimeters of global mean sea level by 2050, doubling
the amount of change in the next three decades compared to the
previous 100 years and increasing the frequency and impacts of
floods across the world,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director
for the NASA sea level change team and the ocean physics program in
Washington...<br>
<b>Seasonal Effects</b><br>
Global sea level saw a significant jump from 2022 to 2023 due mainly
to a switch between La Niña and El Niño conditions. A mild La Niña
from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a lower-than-expected rise in sea
level that year. A strong El Niño developed in 2023, helping to
boost the average amount of rise in sea surface height.<br>
<br>
La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in
the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño involves warmer-than-average
ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Both periodic climate
phenomena affect patterns of rainfall and snowfall as well as sea
levels around the world.<br>
<br>
“During La Niña, rain that normally falls in the ocean falls on the
land instead, temporarily taking water out of the ocean and lowering
sea levels,” said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “In El Niño years, a
lot of the rain that normally falls on land ends up in the ocean,
which raises sea levels temporarily.”<br>
<b>A Human Footprint</b><br>
Seasonal or periodic climate phenomena can affect global average sea
level from year to year. But the underlying trend for more than
three decades has been increasing ocean heights as a direct response
to global warming due to the excessive heat trapped by greenhouse
gases in Earth’s atmosphere.<br>
“Long-term datasets like this 30-year satellite record allow us to
differentiate between short-term effects on sea level, like El Niño,
and trends that let us know where sea level is heading,” said Ben
Hamlington, lead for NASA’s sea level change team at JPL.<br>
<br>
These multidecadal observations wouldn’t be possible without ongoing
international cooperation, as well as scientific and technical
innovations by NASA and other space agencies. Specifically, radar
altimeters have helped produce ever-more precise measurements of sea
level around the world. To calculate ocean height, these instruments
bounce microwave signals off the sea surface, recording the time the
signal takes to travel from a satellite to Earth and back, as well
as the strength of the return signal.<br>
<br>
The researchers also periodically cross-check those sea level
measurements against data from other sources. These include tide
gauges, as well as satellite measurements of factors like
atmospheric water vapor and Earth’s gravity field that can affect
the accuracy of sea level measurements. Using that information, the
researchers recalibrated the 30-year dataset, resulting in updates
to sea levels in some previous years. That includes a sea level rise
increase of 0.08 inches (0.21 centimeters) from 2021 to 2022.<br>
<br>
When researchers combine space-based altimetry data of the oceans
with more than a century of observations from surface-based sources,
such as tide gauges, the information dramatically improves our
understanding of how sea surface height is changing on a global
scale. When these sea level measurements are combined with other
information, including ocean temperature, ice loss, and land motion,
scientists can decipher why and how seas are rising.<br>
<br>
<i>Learn more about sea level and climate change:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sealevel.nasa.gov/">https://sealevel.nasa.gov/</a></i><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-sees-spike-in-2023-global-sea-level-due-to-el-nino">https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-sees-spike-in-2023-global-sea-level-due-to-el-nino</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ huge currents ]</i><br>
<b>On the Vital Importance of Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar
Current (ACC) in our Climate System</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Apr 1, 2024<br>
A fascinating peer-reviewed scientific paper was just published on
how the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has changed over the
past 5.3 million years. <br>
<br>
This massive and profoundly important ocean current system
transports between 165 and 182 Sverdrup’s of water which is over 100
times more than the combined flow rate of all the rivers on our
planet. One Sverdrup is a million cubic meters of water per second,
so the ACC is of vital importance for heat flow on our planet.<br>
<br>
Basically, the ACC flow has increased as our planet continues to
warm at accelerated rates.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4umstGoqaNY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4umstGoqaNY</a><br>
<i>- -</i><br>
<i>[ PDF file carries a 20 page article - and Earth Null School ]</i><br>
<b>Five million years of Antarctic Circumpolar </b><b>Current
strength variability</b><br>
Published online: 27 March 2024<br>
Frank Lamy, Gisela Winckler, Helge W. Arz, Jesse R. Farmer, Julia
Gottschalk, Lester Lembke-Jene, and many more...<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) represents the
world’s largest ocean-current system and affects global ocean
circulation, climate and Antarctic ice-sheet stability. Today, ACC
dynamics are controlled by atmospheric forcing, oceanic density
gradients and eddy activity4. Whereas palaeoceanographic
reconstructions exhibit regional heterogeneity in ACC position and
strength over Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, the
long-term evolution of the ACC is poorly known. Here we document
changes in ACC strength from sediment cores in the Pacific
Southern Ocean. We find no linear long-term trend in ACC flow
since 5.3 million years ago (Ma), in contrast to global cooling9
and increasing global ice volume10. Instead, we observe a reversal
on a million-year timescale, from increasing ACC strength during
Pliocene global cooling to a subsequent decrease with further
Early Pleistocene cooling. This shift in the ACC regime coincided
with a Southern Ocean reconfiguration that altered the sensitivity
of the ACC to atmospheric and oceanic forcings. We find ACC
strength changes to be closely linked to 400,000-year eccentricity
cycles, probably originating from modulation of precessional
changes in the South Pacific jet stream linked to tropical Pacific
temperature variability. A persistent link between weaker ACC
flow, equatorward-shifted opal deposition and reduced atmospheric
CO2 during glacial periods first emerged during the
Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). The strongest ACC flow occurred
during warmer-than-present intervals of the Plio-Pleistocene,
providing evidence of potentially increasing ACC flow with future
climate warming.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07143-3#Abs1">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07143-3#Abs1</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[ from Phys.org - DTFM - "<b>D</b>o <b>T</b>he <b>F</b>undamental
<b>M</b>ath " ]<br>
<b>Simple equations clarify cloud climate conundrum</b><br>
by University of Exeter</p>
<p>APRIL 1, 2024</p>
<p>A new analysis based on simple equations has reduced uncertainty
about how clouds will affect future climate change.<br>
Clouds have two main effects on global temperature—cooling the
planet by reflecting sunlight, and warming it by acting as
insulation for Earth's radiation. The impact of clouds is the
largest area of uncertainty in global warming predictions.<br>
<br>
In the new study, researchers from the University of Exeter and
the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris created a model
that predicts how changes in the surface area of anvil clouds
(storm clouds common in the tropics) will affect global warming.<br>
<br>
By testing their model against observations of how clouds impact
warming in the present day, they confirmed its effectiveness and
thereby reduced uncertainty in climate predictions.<br>
<br>
The model shows that changes in the area of anvil clouds have a
much weaker impact on global warming than previously thought.
However, the brightness of clouds (determined by their thickness)
remains understudied, and is therefore one of the largest
obstacles to predicting future global warming.<br>
<br>
"Climate change is complex, but sometimes we can answer key
questions in a very simple way," said lead author Brett McKim.<br>
<br>
"In this case, we simplified clouds into basic characteristics:
either high or low, their size and the temperature," McKim
explained. "Doing this allowed us to write equations and create a
model that could be tested against observed clouds."<br>
<br>
"Our results more than halve uncertainty about the impact of the
surface area of anvil clouds on warming.<br>
<br>
"That's a big step—potentially equivalent to several years'
difference in when we expect to reach thresholds such as the 2°C
limit set by the Paris Agreement.<br>
<br>
"We now need to investigate how warming will affect the brightness
of clouds. That's the next stage of our research."<br>
<br>
The paper, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, is titled,
"Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and
observational constraints."<br>
<br>
More information: Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by
physical and observational constraints, Nature Geoscience (2024).
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01414-4<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2024-03-simple-equations-cloud-climate-conundrum.html">https://phys.org/news/2024-03-simple-equations-cloud-climate-conundrum.html</a></p>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<i>[ Journal information: Nature Geoscience ]</i><br>
Published: 01 April 2024<br>
<b>Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and
observational constraints</b><br>
Brett McKim, Sandrine Bony & Jean-Louis Dufresne <br>
Nature Geoscience (2024)Cite this article<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Changes in anvil clouds with warming remain a leading
source of uncertainty in estimating Earth’s climate sensitivity.
Here we develop a feedback analysis that decomposes changes in
anvil clouds and creates testable hypotheses for refining their
proposed uncertainty ranges with observations and theory. To carry
out this storyline approach, we derive a simple but quantitative
expression for the anvil area feedback, which is shown to depend
on the present-day measurable cloud radiative effects and the
fractional change in anvil area with warming. Satellite
observations suggest an anvil cloud radiative effect of about
±1 W m−2, which requires the fractional change in anvil area to be
about 50% K−1 in magnitude to produce a feedback equal to the
current best estimate of its lower bound. We use quantitative
theory and observations to show that the change in anvil area is
closer to about −4% K−1. This constrains the area feedback and
leads to our revised estimate of 0.02 ± 0.07 W m−2 K−1, which is
many times weaker and more constrained than the overall anvil
cloud feedback. In comparison, we show the anvil cloud albedo
feedback to be much less constrained, both theoretically and
observation ally, which poses an obstacle for bounding Earth’s
climate sensitivity.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01414-4">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01414-4</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - "seeking the
ouster" ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>April 2, 2002 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> April 2, 2002: The New York Times
reports:<br>
<br>
"After a year of urging from energy industry lobbyists, the Bush
administration is seeking the ouster of an American scientist who
for nearly six years has directed an international panel of hundreds
of experts assessing global warming, several government officials
have said.<br>
<br>
"The specialist, Dr. Robert T. Watson, chief scientist of the World
Bank, is highly regarded as an atmospheric chemist by many climate
experts. He has held the unpaid position of chairman of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since the fall of 1996.
Now his term is expiring and the State Department has chosen not to
renominate him to head the panel, which is run under the auspices of
the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization.<br>
<br>
"Dr. Watson is an outspoken advocate of the idea that human actions
— mainly burning oil and coal — are contributing to global warming
and must be changed to avert environmental upheavals.<br>
<br>
"Last night, a State Department official said the administration was
leaning toward endorsing a scientist from India, which along with
other developing countries has been eager for a stronger role in the
climate assessments.<br>
<br>
"But many influential climate experts say they have written to the
department supporting Dr. Watson."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/02/science/02CLIM.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/02/science/02CLIM.html</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/6NcSOUJUBfY">http://youtu.be/6NcSOUJUBfY</a><br>
<br>
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