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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>April </b></i></font><font
size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>20, 2024</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font><br>
<i>[ We knew that Al will reach global warming - 54 min audio ]</i><br>
<b>Climate One</b><br>
We’re living through a climate emergency; addressing this crisis
begins by talking about it. Co-Hosts Greg Dalton and Ariana Brocious
bring you empowering conversations that connect all aspects of the
challenge — the scary and the exciting, the individual and the
systemic. Join us. Subscribe to Climate One on Patreon for access to
ad-free episodes and the Climate One Discord server. Show Less<br>
<b> Artificial Intelligence, Real Climate Impacts</b><br>
Artificial intelligence can do some pretty amazing things, including
for the climate. AI can help optimize the electric grid, make
heating and cooling buildings more efficient, and pinpoint exactly
where greenhouse gas emissions are coming from all around the world.<br>
On the other hand, the energy use of AI is massive and growing. A
recent study estimates that in just a few years, the extra energy
needed will equal whole countries the size of Sweden or Argentina.
How do we make sure the benefits of AI outweigh its energy costs?<br>
<blockquote>Guests<br>
Karen Hao, Contributing Writer, The Atlantic <br>
Gavin McCormick, Cofounder and Executive Director, WattTime;
Cofounder, Climate TRACE<br>
Priya Donti, Assistant Professor, MIT; Co-founder and Chair of
Climate Change AI <br>
Amy McGovern, Professor of Computer Science, University of
Oklahoma <br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://listen.climateone.org/ArtificialIntelligence">https://listen.climateone.org/ArtificialIntelligence</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ recently published in Nature.com ]</i><br>
19 April 2024<br>
<b>Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
abyssal limb in the North Atlantic</b><br>
Tiago Carrilho Biló, Renellys C. Perez, Shenfu Dong, William Johns
& Torsten Kanzow <br>
Nature Geoscience (2024)<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
The abyssal limb of the global Meridional Overturning Circulation
redistributes heat and carbon as it carries Antarctic Bottom Water
from the Southern Ocean towards the Northern Hemisphere. Using
mooring observations and hydrographic data from multiple sources
in the North Atlantic, we show that northward-flowing Antarctic
Bottom Water is constrained below 4,500 m with a mean volume
transport of 2.40 ± 0.25 Sv at 16° N. We find that during
2000–2020, the Antarctic Bottom Water northward transport weakened
by approximately 0.35 ± 0.13 Sv, corresponding to a 12 ± 5%
decrease. The weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation abyssal cell is a probable response to reduced
Antarctic Bottom Water formation rates over the past several
decades and is associated with abyssal warming observed throughout
the western Atlantic Ocean. We estimate that the warming of the
Antarctic Bottom Water layer in the subtropical North Atlantic is,
on average, 1 m°C per year in the last two decades due to the
downward heaving of abyssal isopycnals, contributing to the
increase of abyssal heat content and, hence, sea-level rise in the
region (1 m°C = 0.001 °C). This warming trend is approximately
half of the Antarctic Bottom Water warming trend observed in the
South Atlantic and parts of the Southern Ocean, indicating a
dilution of the signal as the Antarctic Bottom Water crosses the
Equator.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01422-4">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01422-4</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ </i><i>Department of Ecology News Release - April 16, 2024 ]</i><br>
<b>Statewide drought declared due to low snowpack and dry forecast</b><br>
Limited exceptions for metro areas with healthy water storage<br>
OLYMPIA – <br>
With winter’s snowstorms largely behind us and summer just weeks
away, our state’s low snowpack and forecasts for a dry and warm
spring and summer have spurred the Department of Ecology to declare
a drought emergency for most of Washington.<br>
<br>
After an exceptionally dry start to the winter, Washington’s
snowpack made up some ground in February, March and April. But with
chances for significant additions to our snowpack now diminishing,
there is simply not enough water contained in mountain snow and
reservoirs to prevent serious impacts for water users in the months
ahead. With many watersheds already projecting low water supplies
and planning for emergency water right transfers, Ecology declared a
drought to make assistance available before those impacts become
severe.<br>
<br>
“As our climate continues to change, we’re increasingly seeing our
winters bring more rain and less snow,” said Washington Gov. Jay
Inslee. “We depend on that winter snowpack to meet the needs of
Washington’s farmers, fish, and communities during the dry summer
months. And this year, it’s just not at the level we’re accustomed
to and rely on.”<br>
<br>
Ecology is making up to $4.5 million available in drought response
grants to qualifying public entities to respond to impacts from the
current drought conditions.<br>
<br>
“By moving quickly to declare a drought, we can begin delivering
financial support to water systems with drought impacts, and work
with water users to find solutions to challenges before they become
a crisis,” said Laura Watson, Ecology’s director.<br>
<br>
Ecology is working closely with other state agencies to coordinate
the drought response.<br>
<br>
“Snowpack, rainfall, and irrigation flows from major rivers provide
the necessary water supply to sustain our communities and the
agriculture industry,” said Washington State Department of
Agriculture Director Derek Sandison. “The anticipated drought
conditions this year emphasize the importance of building drought
resilience into water management strategies throughout the state.”<br>
<br>
The impacts of low flows raise serious concerns for fish and other
species, said Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Director
Kelly Susewind.<br>
<br>
“With decreased snowpack and the potential for low flows and warmer
water conditions this summer, it could be a difficult year for fish
and other aquatic wildlife,” Susewind said. “We’re working together
to mitigate drought impacts on fish, wildlife and the habitat they
depend on to survive.”<br>
<br>
In Washington, drought is declared when there is less than 75% of
normal water supply and there is the risk of undue hardship.
Declaring a drought emergency allows Ecology to distribute drought
response grants and to process emergency water right permits and
transfers.<br>
<br>
Excluded from the new drought declaration are limited areas in
Seattle, Tacoma and Everett. Utilities in these cities have
reservoir storage and water management strategies that make them
more resilient to drought than other systems.<br>
<br>
The new drought declaration is really a continuation of 2023’s
drought emergency, which covered 12 watersheds across the state.
Even as the rains returned last fall, Ecology’s drought monitors
warned that it would take an unusually cool, wet, rainy season to
make up for those deficits. Unfortunately, an El Niño weather
pattern brought more warm weather and left many mountaintops bare in
early winter. The 2023 drought declaration was scheduled to end June
30 this year. The new, statewide declaration will continue into next
year. <br>
<br>
<b>Current conditions</b><br>
Statewide snowpack currently stands at 68%. Some areas, including
the Olympic Mountains, Lower Yakima and north Puget Sound, have
significantly lower snowpack. Streamflows in many basins are already
below 75% of normal. Forecasts for April through September have
Chelan River streamflows at 52%of normal, while the Stehekin, Methow
and Okanagan rivers are forecasted to have 59% of normal
streamflows.<br>
<br>
Climate predictions for April through August are for generally
warmer and drier than normal conditions throughout Washington.<br>
<br>
<b>What can you do?</b><br>
There are several ways individuals can conserve water during times
of scarcity. Habits as simple as turning off the faucet while
brushing your to teeth or running the dishwasher only when it’s full
can make a difference. Visit Ecology’s water conservation page to
learn more.<br>
<br>
Contact information<br>
Jimmy Norris<br>
Communications Manager<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:jimmy.norris@ecy.wa.gov">jimmy.norris@ecy.wa.gov</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/news/2024-news-stories/april-16-drought-declaration">https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/news/2024-news-stories/april-16-drought-declaration</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ Paul Beckwith reviews a paper on tipping points - see video
illustrations ]</i><br>
<b>Tipping Points in the Ocean and Atmosphere Global Circulations</b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Apr 18, 2024<br>
I chat here about the latest science on tipping points in the
dynamic fluid systems of the Earth, namely the ocean circulation
patterns and the atmospheric circulation patterns.<br>
<br>
The most recent key review document containing this knowledge
summary is “Global Tipping Points 2023”:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://global-tipping-points.org/">https://global-tipping-points.org/</a><br>
<br>
The key ocean current systems that are presently showing early
warning signs of rapid approach to tipping points include the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar
Gyre (SPG) and the Antarctic Southern Circulation systems.<br>
<br>
There is a huge risk that as the slowdown and even stoppage of some
of these global ocean circulation systems proceeds, the monsoonal
rainfall in the tropics from the Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) will all change, as the ITCZ would shift southward, so the
existing monsoonal patterns would all shift, with the existing
monsoonal regions getting much drier as the rainfall falls in
regions further to the south. Clearly, this would impact millions to
hundreds of millions to even billions of people in these regions.<br>
<br>
Also, changes to the atmospheric circulation are examined, with the
conclusion (in the review paper) essentially being that the shifts
are not likely to exhibit tipping behaviour (don’t think I agree). <br>
<br>
Also, effects on the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) to a more
“permanent El Niño state) are discussed.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkYT1dxGtDQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkYT1dxGtDQ</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Predicament in China (and for Texas) -- we are not surprised ]</i><br>
<b>Water extraction and weight of buildings see half of China's
cities sink</b><br>
4-18-24<br>
By Matt McGrath,<br>
Environment correspondent<br>
Nearly half of China's major cities are sinking because of water
extraction and the increasing weight of their rapid expansion,
researchers say.<br>
<br>
Some cities are subsiding rapidly, with one in six exceeding 10mm
per year.<br>
<br>
China's rapid urbanisation in recent decades means far more water is
now being drawn up to meet people's needs, scientists say.<br>
<br>
In coastal cities, this subsidence threatens millions of people with
flooding as sea levels rise.<br>
map
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/14B1/production/_133179250_china_subsidence_map_2x_640-nc.png.webp">https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/14B1/production/_133179250_china_subsidence_map_2x_640-nc.png.webp</a><br>
China has a long history of dealing with subsiding land, with both
Shanghai and Tianjin showing evidence of sinking back in the 1920s.
Shanghai has sunk more than 3m over the past century.<br>
<br>
In more modern times, the country is seeing widespread evidence of
subsidence in many of the cities that have expanded rapidly in
recent decades.<br>
<br>
To understand the scale of the problem, a team of researchers from
several Chinese universities have examined 82 cities, including all
with a population over 2 million.<br>
<br>
They've used data from the Sentinel-1 satellites to measure vertical
land motions across the country.<br>
Looking across the period from 2015 to 2022, the team was able to
work out that 45% of urban areas are subsiding by more than 3mm per
year.<br>
<br>
Around 16% of urban land is going down faster than 10mm a year,
which the scientists describe as a rapid descent.<br>
<br>
Put another way, this means 67 million people are living in rapidly
sinking areas.<br>
<br>
The researchers say that the cities facing the worst problems are
concentrated in the five regions highlighted on the map shown.<br>
<br>
The scale of decline is influenced by a number of factors, including
geology and the weight of buildings. But a major element, according
to the authors, is groundwater loss.<br>
This essentially means the extraction of water underneath or near
cities for use by the local population.<br>
This has already been seen in several major urban areas around the
world including Houston, Mexico City and Delhi.<br>
In China, the research team were able to associate the extraction of
water from over 1,600 monitoring wells with increasing levels of
subsidence.<br>
<br>
"I think the water extraction is, to my mind, probably the dominant
reason," said Prof Robert Nicholls, from the University of East
Anglia, who was not involved in the research.<br>
"In China there are lots of people living in areas that have been
fairly recently sedimented, geologically speaking. So when you take
out groundwater or you drain the soils, they tend to subside."<br>
<br>
Other factors that are influencing subsidence include urban
transportation systems and mining for minerals and coal.<br>
In the northern region of Pingdingshan, one of the largest coal
areas in the country, land is subsiding at an extremely rapid 109mm
per year.<br>
<br>
The authors of the study say that a big threat going forward is the
exposure of urban populations to flooding, from a combination of
subsidence and sea level rise brought about by climate change.<br>
In 2020, around 6% of China had a relative elevation below sea
level. In 100 years time, this could rise to 26% of the country in a
mid to high carbon emissions scenario.<br>
<br>
The researchers say the land is sinking faster than the seas are
rising, but together they would put hundreds of millions at risk of
flooding.<br>
<br>
However, research shows that there are effective strategies that can
combat the slow decline.<br>
<br>
Subsidence issues have afflicted other major urban centres in Asia,
including Osaka and Tokyo in Japan in the past.<br>
<br>
"Tokyo subsided around the port area, up to five metres in the 20th
century," said Prof Nicholls.<br>
<br>
"But in the 1970s, they provided good piped water from other areas
and they also had a law saying you will not use well water and
essentially it stopped the subsidence."<br>
<br>
The study has been published in the journal Science.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68844731">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68844731</a><br>
<br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ Research study published ]</i><br>
<b>A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major
cities</b><br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
China’s massive wave of urbanization may be threatened by land
subsidence. Using a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar
interferometry technique, we provided a systematic assessment of
land subsidence in all of China’s major cities from 2015 to 2022.
Of the examined urban lands, 45% are subsiding faster than 3
millimeters per year, and 16% are subsiding faster than 10
millimeters per year, affecting 29 and 7% of the urban population,
respectively. The subsidence appears to be associated with a range
of factors such as groundwater withdrawal and the weight of
buildings. By 2120, 22 to 26% of China’s coastal lands will have a
relative elevation lower than sea level, hosting 9 to 11% of the
coastal population, because of the combined effect of city
subsidence and sea-level rise. Our results underscore the
necessity of enhancing protective measures to mitigate potential
damages from subsidence.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366</a><br>
<br>
<p> </p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[The news archive - Bush has a growing
portfolio of blockages ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>April 20, 2002 </b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> April 20, 2002: The Guardian reports:<br>
<blockquote><b>US and oil lobby oust climate change scientist</b><br>
This article is more than 22 years old<br>
Julian Borger in Washington<br>
Sat 20 Apr 2002<br>
<br>
The head of the international scientific panel on climate change,
which has called for urgent action to curb global warming, was
deposed yesterday after a campaign by the Bush administration,
Exxon-Mobil and other energy companies to get him replaced.<br>
<br>
At a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in Geneva, Robert Watson, a British-born US
atmospheric scientist who has been its chairman since 1996, was
replaced by an Indian railway engineer and environmentalist, R K
Pachauri.<br>
<br>
Dr Pachauri received 76 votes to Dr Watson's 49 after a
behind-the-scenes diplomatic campaign by the US to persuade
developing countries to vote against Dr Watson, according to
diplomats. The British delegation argued for Dr Watson and Dr
Pachauri to share the chairmanship.<br>
<br>
The US campaign came to light after the disclosure of a
confidential memorandum from the world's biggest oil company,
Exxon-Mobil, to the White House, proposing a strategy for his
removal.<br>
<br>
This included the removal of President Bill Clinton's appointees
on the US delegation, and their replacement by officials more
sympathetic to the needs of industry.<br>
<br>
Steve Sawyer, a Greenpeace climate change specialist, said: "Even
the most cynical would be shocked by the heavy-handed tactics of
the US delegation's bald display of their fossil fuel- backed
politics."<br>
<br>
Diplomats in Washington confirmed that the US had pursued an
active campaign against Dr Watson.<br>
<br>
Although he comes from an industrial background, Dr Pachauri is
one of India's leading environmentalists and has supported
implementation of the Kyoto treaty on global warming - a treaty
the Bush administration has rejected.<br>
<br>
Environmentalists argued that the anti-Watson campaign was a show
of strength by the US, oil producers like Saudi Arabia, and oil
corporations like Exxon-Mobil, intended to cow the IPCC.<br>
<br>
However, the head of the US delegation to the IPCC, Harlan Watson,
denied claims of a vendetta and said that Dr Pachauri was both
well qualified and the first strong candidate put forward by the
developing world.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/20/internationaleducationnews.climatechange">http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/20/internationaleducationnews.climatechange</a><br>
<br>
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