[TheClimate.Vote] August 10, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/August  10, 2017/

*(video 2 min) Climate Change Report vs. EPA Chief Scott Pruitt | The 
New York Times <https://youtu.be/WAUIBOEiyhE>*
A draft report from 13 federal agencies directly contradicts statements 
from the Trump administration. EPA Chief Scott Pruitt has frequently 
questioned the extent of human activity on climate change, admitting 
human activity contributes to it, but wonders how much. Pruitt has 
expressed doubt about the extent of human influence on climate change 
despite reports stating otherwise.
https://youtu.be/WAUIBOEiyhE

*How Bad Will Climate Change Get? It's a Surprise, Says Report 
<https://weather.com/science/environment/news/climate-change-report-surprises>*
By Pam Wright   weather.com
While the report confirmed what we know – climate change is real, 
human-caused and will continue to influence life on Earth – the 
scientists note that there will be some surprises that climate models 
just can't predict.
"Humanity is conducting an unprecedented experiment with the Earth's 
climate system through emissions from large-scale fossil-fuel 
combustion, widespread deforestation and other changes to the atmosphere 
and landscape. While researchers and policymakers must rely on climate 
model projections for a representative picture of the further Earth 
system on these conditions, there are still elements of the Earth system 
that models do not capture well," the report says. "For this reason, 
there is significant potential for humankind's planetary experiment to 
result in unanticipated surprises - and the further and faster the 
Earth's climate system is changed, the greater the risk of such surprises."
*(MORE:**Government Scientists Leak Sobering Climate Report 
<https://weather.com/science/environment/news/climate-report-scientists-trump>)*
Other tipping points that could impact the future include undersea 
methane releases. The report says there are as many as 3,000 gigatons of 
carbon in methane hydrates frozen in undersea sediment that could be 
released by warming water into the atmosphere, which would impact global 
warming more than is projected today.
The report also notes that there could very well be surprises in 
computer models that predict the impacts of global warming, especially 
in polar regions.
"Future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be 
ruled out," the report says. "And climate models are more likely to 
underestimate than to overestimate the amount of long-term future change."
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/climate-change-report-surprises


*Here's how climate change is already affecting the US 
<https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16116198/climate-change-report-extreme-weather-co2-donald-trump>*
We often talk about climate change as a far-off problem that will affect 
our children and grandchildren, but climate change is already affecting 
Americans right now, according to a US government report 
<https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3920195/Final-Draft-of-the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.pdf>published 
on Tuesday by The New York Times 
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/climate/climate-change-drastic-warming-trump.html?_r=0>. 
In fact, the US is already experiencing rising temperatures, more 
flooding in coastal zones, and an increase in the number of extreme 
weather events like heat waves and heavy rain.
The report was drafted by scientists in 13 federal agencies such as NASA 
and NOAA as part of the National Climate Assessment, which is mandated 
by Congress every four years. The results are based on thousands of 
scientific studies documenting incidents of climate change from around 
the world, and are at odds with what members of the Trump administration 
have often said about climate change.
"HUMAN ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES, ARE 
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE."
"Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially 
emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the 
observed climate changes in the industrial era, especially over the last 
six decades," the report says. If we don't heavily reduce these 
emissions, average global temperatures could increase by 9 degrees 
Fahrenheit or more by the end of the century, the report says. That 
would be catastrophic: most scientists see a temperature increase of 
just 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit as the threshold beyond which climate change 
is irreversible and apocalyptic...
https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16116198/climate-change-report-extreme-weather-co2-donald-trump


*Super-heatwaves of 55°C to emerge if global warming continues 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170809073802.htm>*
Heatwaves amplified by high humidity can reach above 40°C and may occur 
as often as every two years, leading to serious risks for human health. 
If global temperatures rise with 4°C, a new super heatwave of 55°C can 
hit regularly many parts of the world, including Europe.
A recently published study by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) - the 
European Commission's science and knowledge service - analyses the 
interaction between humidity and heat. The novelty of this study is that 
it looks not only at temperature but also relative humidity to estimate 
the magnitude and impact of heat waves.
It finds out that the combinations of the two, and the resulting 
heatwaves, leave ever more people exposed to significant health risks, 
especially in East Asia and America's East Coast.
Source:   European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170809073802.htm


*EPA head casts doubt on 'supposed' threat from climate change 
<http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/345937-epa-head-casts-doubt-on-supposed-threat-from-climate-change>*
Pruitt, however, is skeptical of the scientific consensus that human 
activity is far and away the primary cause of climate change.
The EPA chief believes that the climate is changing and humans have some 
part in that, but maintains that scientists do not know how much that 
contributes to climate change.
Pruitt said Wednesday that the Clean Air Act cannot be used to regulate 
greenhouse gas emissions.
"The Clean Air Act was set up to address regional and local air 
pollutants," he said on the radio program. "Congress has not spoken on 
this issue at all."
*The Supreme Court ruled in the 2007 case Massachusetts v. EPA that 
greenhouse gases are air pollutants under the Clean Air Act, and can be 
regulated if the EPA determines that the gases harm human health or the 
environment. The EPA made such a determination in 2009.*
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/345937-epa-head-casts-doubt-on-supposed-threat-from-climate-change


*There's now a 60 percent chance that the 2017 hurricane season will be 
brutal 
<https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2017/08/09/theres-now-a-60-percent-chance-that-the-2017-hurricane-season-will-be-brutal>*
...our oceans are getting warmer. According to the report, oceans have 
been absorbing excess heat from greenhouse gas warming since the 
mid-20th century.
So, the timing of today's planned update to the 2017 hurricane forecast 
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seems almost 
poetic, especially since they're now saying it's very likely to be "the 
most active since 2010."
RELATED Trump reportedly wants to slash NOAA's hurricane-tracking 
satellite funding 
<https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2017/03/07/trump-reportedly-wants-to-slash-noaas-hurricane-tracking-satellite-funding>
NOAA forecasters updated their previous outlook from last May (which had 
a 45 percent chance of an above-average outlook), and are now saying 
this season will likely have 14 to 19 named storms and two to five major 
hurricanes
https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2017/08/09/theres-now-a-60-percent-chance-that-the-2017-hurricane-season-will-be-brutal


*Seattle Choking on Smoke 
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/opinion/smoke-heat-seattle-climate.html>*
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/opinion/smoke-heat-seattle-climate.html
*Washington Department of Health - Smoke From Fires 
<http://www.doh.wa.gov/CommunityandEnvironment/AirQuality/SmokeFromFires>*
Outdoor smoke contains very small particles and gases, including carbon 
monoxide. These particles can get into your eyes and lungs where they 
can cause health problems. Main sources of outdoor smoke in Washington:
  Wildfires.   Wood stoves, pellet stoves, and fireplaces.  Chemical or 
industrial fires.   Agricultural burning.
What health problems does smoke cause?
  Eye, nose, and throat irritation (burning eyes and runny nose). 
Wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath, and headaches.  Aggravation of 
existing lung, heart and circulatory conditions, including asthma and 
angina.
Who is especially sensitive to smoke?
Inhaling smoke is not good for anyone, even healthy people. People most 
likely to have health problems from breathing smoke include:
People with lung diseases such as asthma or chronic obstructive 
pulmonary disease (COPD), including bronchitis and emphysema.
People with respiratory infections, such as cold or flu.
People with existing heart or circulatory problems, such as congestive 
heart failure, coronary artery disease, and angina.
People with a prior history of heart attack or stroke.
Infants and children because their lungs and airways are still 
developing and they breathe more air per pound of body weight than adults.
Older adults over age 65. Adults age 65 and older may have unrecognized 
heart or lung disease.
Smokers already have lower lung function or lung disease, and breathing 
smoke can make their conditions worse.
Diabetics.
How can I tell if smoke is affecting the air quality in my community?
Check your local air quality at Washington Air Quality Advisory Map 
<https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/>and Airwatch Northwest 
<http://www.airwatchnw.org/>.
Check wildfire locations on the Washington Smoke Information website 
<http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/>....
When smoke levels are high, even healthy people can have symptoms or 
health problems.
Contact your health care provider if you have heart or lung problems 
when around smoke. Dial 911 for emergency assistance if symptoms are 
serious.
*Stage 1 - No Outdoor Burning 
<http://www.pscleanair.org/Pages/default.aspx>*
FORECAST DISCUSSION
For August 9-12: Smoke levels are still UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS 
in most areas and expected to continue through Friday.
http://www.pscleanair.org/Pages/default.aspx


*In leaking a federal climate change report, scientists send a message 
to Trump: Global warming is real 
<http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-trump-environment-climate-change-20170808-story.html>*
Los Angeles Times
So what's the news? ...
The world is in a dangerous place, and it's unclear how much of climate 
change even concerted global action can stop. The report adds to recent 
observations that temperatures at the poles are increasing more quickly 
than they are elsewhere, reducing the size of the Arctic ice cap which, 
some scientists believe, is creating a feedback loop in which less ice 
leads to warmer water temperatures which leads to less ice. And thawing 
tundra has also been emitting massive amounts of methane, causing more 
short-term warming than carbon dioxide and creating its own sort of 
feedback loop, leading to more thawing of the tundra.
The changes are already real and the future risks potentially 
catastrophic. The whole world knows it, and the vast majority of the 
world is trying to address it. That Trump is not, and that government 
scientists feel the needs to join "deep state" actors in leaking their 
findings in fear of what the president might do against the nation's 
best interests, is damning.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-trump-environment-climate-change-20170808-story.html


*Can poor air quality mask global warming's effects? 
<https://phys.org/news/2017-08-poor-air-quality-mask-global.html>*
Phys.Org
Climate scientists dubbed this peculiar phenomenon the "warming hole," 
and it was the cause of much speculation. ..
...reduced aerosol particle concentrations allow more sunlight to reach 
Earth's surface, the scientists hypothesized that the improvements in 
U.S. air quality could also be responsible for the temperature change 
over the Southeast.
https://phys.org/news/2017-08-poor-air-quality-mask-global.html
*Artificial Weather Revealed by Post 9-11 Flight Groundings 
<http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/artificial-weather-revealed-post-9-11-flight-groundings>*
In the three days that followed the 9/11 attacks, when all commercial 
flights above the continental US were suddenly suspended, a veil was 
lifted on the profound, though until that point unconfirmed, effects 
that aviation-associated artificial clouds are having on our planetary 
environment.
In the August 2002 edition of Nature, which is ranked the world's most 
cited interdisciplinary journal, a report was published titled 
*"Contrails reduce daily temperature range, 
<http://www.greenmedinfo.com/article/contrails-reduce-daily-temperature-range>*" 
where scientists discuss how "a brief interval when the skies were clear 
of jets unmasked an effect on climate."
http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/artificial-weather-revealed-post-9-11-flight-groundings


*FAQ Solar Eclipse <http://www.caiso.com/Documents/SolarEclipseFAQ.pdf>*
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/SolarEclipseFAQ.pdf
The eclipse is expected to cause a loss of 4,194 megawatts (MW) of 
large-scale solar
electricity production. There will also be a projected loss of about 
1,365 MW of rooftop
solar generation, which will push the net load, or demand, to about 
6,008 MW during
the eclipse, a gap that will need to be filled using resources other 
than solar generation.
In addition to the loss of solar production, the ISO [Independent System 
Operator] is
preparing for a rapid decrease and then increase in solar generation, 
known as ramp
rates, during the eclipse, which can stress the system. When solar 
plants come back
online quickly, the ISO needs to plan for solar generators coming back 
online in a fast
ramp, which can cause oversupply conditions and frequency management issues.
On the morning of the event - Verify real-time forecasts are transferred 
into the ISO
    system to prepare all generation and optimize transmission pathways.
The ISO doesn't anticipate any eclipse-related service outages. We will 
ramp up
generation to compensate for lost solar production, and there is plenty 
of capacity to
meet need. It is not unusual for the ISO grid operators to manage ramps 
this large on
certain days.
As the eclipse begins its path across the sun, the decrease in 
production will be about
70 MW a minute, and the ramp up is expected to be about 90 to 100 MW per 
minute
as the sun begins to reappear. A typical average ramp-up rate is around 
29 MW per
minute during the 9 a.m. to noon time period
The ISO predicts the market will work efficiently the day of the 
eclipse, but if there are
unforeseen circumstances, such as generation or transmission outages, or 
high heat,
the ISO can call a Flex Alert, which is voluntary call to consumers for 
conservation. Visit
FlexAlert.org to learn more about Flex Alerts, and to sign up for 
notifications.
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/SolarEclipseFAQ.pdf


*How My Costa Rican Neighbors Jolted Me Out of Climate Activist Apathy 
<http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/climate_change_is_already_happening_in_costa_rica.html>*
They have a front-row seat to the havoc climate change is already 
causing. No wonder they're moved to action.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/08/climate_change_is_already_happening_in_costa_rica.html


*The Nitrogen Problem: Why Global Warming Is Making It Worse 
<http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-nitrogen-problem-why-global-warming-is-making-it-worse>*
New research shows that increases in rainfall and extreme weather 
because of climate change will increase the amount of nitrogen polluting 
rivers and other waterways. The findings underscore the urgency of 
reforming agriculture to dramatically reduce the use of nitrogen 
fertilizers....
East, South, and Southeast Asia face the greatest peril, with India 
especially vulnerable "because it exhibits all three risk factors across 
more than two-thirds of its area … and has one of the fastest-growing 
populations." People throughout the region "are heavily dependent on 
surface water supplies," the researchers note. But as climate change 
multiplies the rate of nitrogen runoff, they may increasingly find their 
water undrinkable.
http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-nitrogen-problem-why-global-warming-is-making-it-worse


*This Day in Climate History August 10, 2013 
<http://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-may-increase-violence-new-study-finds/>-  
from D.R. Tucker*
CBS News reports on a new study linking rising temperatures to more 
violence.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-may-increase-violence-new-study-finds/ 



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