[TheClimate.Vote] August 25, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/August 25, 2017/

*(video) Bill Nye: "Everything All At Once" | Talks at Google 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QhigGukHek>*
  Aug 21, 2017 *"It's not rocket surgery"*
Author/Scientist/TV Presenter Bill Nye discusses his new book, 
Everything All At Once. In an interview with Googler Malik Ducard, Bill 
discusses his career, the correct way to tie a bow tie, and how we can 
best approach the scientific and political challenges facing the world 
today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QhigGukHek


*New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country 
hardest 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/24/new-study-finds-that-climate-change-costs-will-hit-trump-country-hardest>*
In the USA, the southeastern states are most vulnerable to the costly 
impacts from human-caused climate change
Humans are causing Earth's climate to change. We know that. We've known 
it for decades. Okay so what? The follow-up questions should be directed 
to what the effects of warming will be. What will the costs be to 
society, to the natural biosystem, and to human lives? Let's be honest, 
if the consequences of warming are not large, then who cares? But, if 
the consequences are severe, then we should take action now to reduce 
the warming. This really comes down to costs and benefits. Are the 
benefits of reducing emissions greater or less than the costs?
But there is a nuance to the answer. The costs are not uniformly 
distributed. Some regions will suffer more and other regions will suffer 
less. In fact, some regions will actually benefit in a warming climate. 
We understand that the world is interconnected and costs will inevitably 
be shared to some extent. But it is clear we won't all suffer the same.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/24/new-study-finds-that-climate-change-costs-will-hit-trump-country-hardest
*Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States 
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362>*
Costing out the effects of climate change
Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present 
abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence 
of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected 
national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to 
short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with 
probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used 
to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a 
range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall 
effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts 
in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the 
Pacific Northwest and New England.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362


*(video 7:06)  PBS Newshour  Academic study concludes Exxon Mobil misled 
on climate change 
<http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/scientific-study-concludes-exxon-mobil-misled-climate-change/>*
...this was an attempt to call a bluff, I think. ExxonMobil authored a 
blog two years ago, daring its critics to analyze its publicly available 
documents on climate science. They said, read all of these documents. 
Make up your own mind
The challenge came in the wake of some great investigative reporting by 
"Inside Climate News," and it found ExxonMobil years ago acknowledged 
climate change privately, it is caused by humans and is a serious 
problem, but it did not acknowledge it publicly...
...we're talking about systematic, scientific content analysis. A 
hundred eighty-seven internal and external corporate documents produced 
by ExxonMobil, 1977 to 2014. Now, during that time, the oil giant was 
funding a lot of rigorous studies on climate change. They were published 
in scientific journals, not easily accessible or digestible to the public.
Eighty-three percent of these peer-reviewed studies matched the 
scientific consensus that climate change is real, caused by humans, 
largely, and is an existential concern. But the study concludes 
ExxonMobil offered the general public something else, a diametrically 
opposed stance on climate science.
Now, to assess ExxonMobil's public statements, the researchers went 
through the so-called "advertorials" that the *company purchased on the 
op-ed page of the "New York Times" every Thursday for 30 years.*
And it was almost the same proportion, 81 percent of those statements, 
but on the other side of the coin, a completely divergent view. They 
cast doubt on whether climate change was real. It discounted human 
impacts. And they suggested there was nothing practical to do about it 
anyway.
...there's one that really stands out. In 1985, an Exxon scientist 
coauthored a study that was really prescient. He predicted that global 
climate at the surface would increase by two degrees above preindustrial 
levels, and this was way before the United Nations scientists came to 
that conclusion. And yet, 15 years after that study was released in "The 
New York Times," Exxon released an advertorial saying unsettled science 
was the rule of the day, and it quoted data from other studies which 
seemed to suggest it was natural fluctuations. The authors of that study 
said it was extremely misleading.
Well, we called ExxonMobil. We asked them to respond on camera to the 
Harvard study. They declined, but they did offer us a written 
statement.  In part it reads: "The study was paid for, written and 
published by activists leading a five-year campaign against the company. 
It is inaccurate and preposterous..."
Naomi Oreskes says she is not ashamed to be called an activist, because 
she considers herself to be both an activist and a scholar, and she 
doesn't see those two things as contradictory...
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/scientific-study-concludes-exxon-mobil-misled-climate-change/

*Exxon Changed Its Tune on Climate Science, Depending on Audience, Study 
Shows 
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/08/23/exxon-climate-science-naomi-oreskes/>*
"This analysis, while not surprising, highlights a deeply troubling 
disregard for the public good," Fugere said. "We have seen this story 
play out before-from asbestos, to lead, to cigarettes, naming just a 
few-plausible deniability in the face of clear science has been used 
time and again by companies and industries to delay protective action. 
What is constantly surprising is that government leaders and agencies 
fall for it every time."
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/08/23/exxon-climate-science-naomi-oreskes/


*Trump thinks clean coal is when workers mine coal and then actually 
'clean it' 
<https://thinkprogress.org/trump-thinks-clean-coal-is-when-workers-mine-coal-and-then-actually-clean-it-b56a2d4317bc/>*
Back in the real world, clean coal remains a fantasy.
How off the rails was President Donald Trump's rally speech in Phoenix 
Tuesday night? He spouted utter nonsense on clean coal, and it didn't 
even make CNN's story, "Donald Trump's 57 most outrageous quotes from 
his Arizona speech."
Trump appears to believe that clean coal - which, it must always be 
pointed out, doesn't actually exist - is when workers mine coal and then 
physically "clean it." That does not happen, but facts have never 
stopped Trump.
     Trump explains clean coal: They're going to take out clean coal, 
meaning they're taking out coal. they're gonna clean it. #PhoenixRally   
pic.twitter.com/vciGHOM44I
     - Richard W. (@IceManNYR) August 23, 2017
"We've ended the war on beautiful, clean coal, and it's just been 
announced that a second, brand-new coal mine," said Trump, "*where 
they're going to take out clean coal - meaning, they're taking out coal. 
They're going to clean it* - is opening in the state of Pennsylvania, 
the second one."
There are many misstatements or outright lies in those brief lines. 
First and foremost, "clean coal" is a fantasy. You can't "clean it." In 
terms of carbon pollution, coal is the dirtiest of fossil fuels, so you 
couldn't clean coal unless you could remove or capture all the carbon 
and bury it.
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-thinks-clean-coal-is-when-workers-mine-coal-and-then-actually-clean-it-b56a2d4317bc/


(data display) This 360degree image shows how much hotter the world has 
gotten since 1880​ 
<https://www.facebook.com/climatecentral/posts/10159136537125024>
The world is getting closer to the 2degreeC threshold. A new 360degree 
image we made shows just how close. We combined monthly global 
temperature analyses from NOAA and NASA and compared that average 
against the early industrial baseline of 1881-1910.
https://www.facebook.com/climatecentral/posts/10159136537125024


*Climate change and environmental degradation are altering the regional 
and seasonal availability and quality of water 
<https://www.climate-diplomacy.org/events/2017-world-water-weekhttps://www.climate-diplomacy.org/events/2017-world-water-week>*
The resulting competition over water use may lead to conflict and 
sometimes violence. On the occasion of the World Water Week 
<https://www.climate-diplomacy.org/events/2017-world-water-week>that 
starts on 26 August in Stockholm, we compiled 10 case studies from the 
interactive ECC Factbook <https://factbook.ecc-platform.org/>that 
analyse the linkages between climate change, water and conflict. They 
look at various pathways through which environmental factors and 
security are connected and outline different attempts to find peaceful 
solutions.
*1. Dispute over water in the Nile Basin*
The Nile basin features significant conflict over access to and rights 
over the Nile water resources among its eleven riparian countries. Since 
2007, diverging interests between upstream and downstream countries have 
brought negotiations to a standstill, pitting Egypt (and, to a lesser 
extent, Sudan) against upstream riparians, especially Ethiopia... Read 
more: http://bit.ly/NileWaterDisp
*2. Water shortages and public discontent in Yemen*
As a consequence of severe mismanagement, Yemen's water availability is 
declining dramatically. The impacts on the people are unequally 
distributed, and corruption and nepotism are at the core of this 
imbalance. This has increasingly frustrated the disadvantaged, with 
water scarcity playing a role in fuelling the political and security 
crisis in Yemen. Read more: http://bit.ly/YemenWater
*3. Turkey, Syria and Iraq: conflict over the Euphrates-Tigris*
The Euphrates-Tigris Basin is shared between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, 
with Iran comprising parts of the Tigris basin. Since the 1960s, 
unilateral irrigation plans altering the flows of the rivers, coupled 
with political tensions between the countries, have strained relations 
in the basin. Disputes have prevented the three governments from 
effectively co-managing the basin's rivers. Read more: 
http://bit.ly/EuphTigrWater
*4. Transboundary water disputes between Afghanistan and Iran*
Afghanistan's efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand River and the 
Harirud to support post-conflict reconstruction and development have 
alarmed Iran. The Iranian government perceives Afghanistan's 
agricultural expansion and dam construction activities as threats to 
water security in its eastern and northeastern provinces. Read more: 
http://bit.ly/conflictAI
*5. Dam projects and disputes in the Mekong River Basin*
The Mekong basin is witnessing an enormous expansion of dam-building for 
hydropower generation. This has led to diplomatic tensions as countries 
downstream of the dams fear the negative impacts they may bring about, 
from greater flooding to seasonal lack of water. The Mekong River 
Commission's (MRC) effectiveness in resolving these tensions has so far 
been limited due to its lack of enforcement powers and China's 
reluctance to join as a full member. Read more: http://bit.ly/ECCMekong
*6. Dispute over water in the Cauvery Basin in India*
The long-standing conflict over water from the Cauvery River between the 
Indian states Karnataka and Tamil Nadu has recently resurfaced in the 
context of drier climate conditions. The implications are not only legal 
battles, but also violent protests following decisions to alter water 
distribution between the two states. Read more: http://bit.ly/CauveryWater
*7. Droughts, livestock prices and armed conflict in Somalia*
Frequent droughts in Somalia put significant pressures on pastoral 
livelihoods. Droughts cause herders to sell more of their livestock than 
they would under normal conditions, resulting in plummeting livestock 
prices and deteriorating rural incomes. Widespread poverty and lack of 
economic alternatives, in turn, provide incentives for illicit 
activities and for joining armed groups such as Al Shabaab. Read more: 
http://bit.ly/ECCSomalia
*8. Turkey-Armenia: Water cooperation despite tensions*
The Turkish-Armenian case is a prominent example of how two co-riparians 
can put their tensions aside, work together in their mutual interest, 
and share transboundary waters equitably. Read more: 
http://bit.ly/TurkArmCoop
*  9. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt*
Egypt is currently using more water than its internal renewable 
resources supply. Water stress in Egypt is expected to further increase 
in the future as a result of rapid population growth, rising 
temperatures and increasing water consumption. If not properly dealt 
with, growing freshwater scarcity will put severe strains on Egypt's 
economy and make the country more vulnerable to renewed internal strife. 
Read more: http://bit.ly/EgyptWater
*  10. Water privatisation in Cochabamba, Bolivia*
In 2000, privatisation of the drinking water in Cochabamba incurred 
violent protests and escalated into the so-called 'Water War of 
Cochabamba'. Eventually, the city's water was renationalised, however, 
dwindling water supplies induced by global climate change, 
over-consumption and technological deficiencies continue to heavily 
strain the city of Cochabamba. Read more: http://bit.ly/BoliviaWater
https://www.climate-diplomacy.org/publications


*Methane from tundra, ocean floor didn't spike during previous natural 
warming period 
<https://phys.org/news/2017-08-methane-tundra-ocean-floor-didnt.html>*
Phys.Org
Scientists concerned that global warming may release huge stores of 
methane from reservoirs beneath Arctic tundra and deposits of marine 
hydrates - a theory known as the "clathrate gun" hypothesis - have 
turned to geologic history to search for evidence of significant methane 
release during past warming events.
A new study published this week in the journal Nature suggests, however, 
that the last ice age transition to a warmer climate some 11,500 years 
ago did not include massive methane flux from marine sediments or the 
tundra. Instead, the likely source of rising levels of atmospheric 
methane was from tropical wetlands, authors of the new study say.
While this certainly is good news, the study also points at a larger 
role of humans in the recent methane rise, noted Edward Brook, an Oregon 
State University paleoclimatologist and co-author on the study
hey found that amount of methane from ancient "14C-free sources" was 
very low - less than 10 percent of the total methane - during the entire 
range of sampling, from 11,800 to 11,300 years ago.
https://phys.org/news/2017-08-methane-tundra-ocean-floor-didnt.html#jCp


*National Hurricane Center: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/>* 
http://www.hurricanes.gov
*Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:* 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#GTWO>http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#GTWO
*Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php>* 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
*Definition of NHC Track Forecast Cone: 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml>* 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
*Hurricane Safety Tips and Resources: 
<http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hurricane/index.shtml>* 
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hurricane/index.shtml
*National Hurricane Preparedness Week 
<http://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness>*: 
http://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness
*National Hurricane Center Facebook page 
<https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/>*: https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/
*National Hurricane Center Twitter page: 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/twitter.php>* http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/twitter.php

*Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2>*
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

*Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php>*
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

*Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year 
<http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year>*
'Weak or non-existent' El Nino is a factor
UPDATED: May 25, 2017. Audio from today's media call is posted to the 
"Resources" section below.
May 25, 2017 Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center say the 
Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.
For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 
through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an 
above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and 
only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year


*This Day in Climate History August 25, 2004 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/26/science/26climate.html> -  from D.R. 
Tucker*
August 25, 2004: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program releases the 
report "Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for 
Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005."
http://web.archive.org/web/20041015135521/http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2004-5/ocp2004-5.pdf 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/26/science/26climate.html

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