[TheClimate.Vote] December 16, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Dec 16 09:48:04 EST 2017
/December 16, 2017
/
[AGU Fall Meeting]
*Are the worst climate outcomes unavoidable? Are we doomed?
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv-pnhDVrXI>*
Climate State
Published on Dec 15, 2017
At the AGU Fall Meeting 2017, Michael Mann explained why the narrative
of certain doom of mankind is equal to denial, and that our actions
today make a difference to what we can expect with future warming. Watch
the entire panel discussion at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i2k2tpbfVk
"Acts of climate change are no longer subtle"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv-pnhDVrXI
-
[American Geophysical Union (AGU)]
*2017 Fall Meeting Press Conference: Climate solutions*
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i2k2tpbfVk>
Published on Dec 13, 2017
A late-breaking panel discussion will address the challenges humanity
faces with global climate change on Tuesday, Dec. 12. The discussion
will aim to define conceptual frameworks and practical methodologies
aimed at fostering and promoting the innovations needed to respond to
the global challenge of climate change. A media availability with the
panelists will be held the morning of the session.
Participants:
Michael Mann, Pennsylvania State University, University Park,
Pennsylvania, U.S.A.;
Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University, University Park,
Pennsylvania, U.S.A.;
Sarah Myhre, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.;
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Potsdam, Germany.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i2k2tpbfVk
[Climate Liability News]
*Trade Group Gears Up to Discredit Climate Liability Movement
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/12/15/nam-climate-liability-industry/>*
By Dana Drugmand
In response to a growing wave of climate change lawsuits and legal
investigations attempting to hold fossil fuel corporations accountable
for climate consequences and decades of deception, a large industry
trade group is nowfervently pushing back
<http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/manufacturers-push-back-against-environmentalists-climate-court-strategy/article/2642361>with
an "accountability" initiative of its own.
TheNational Association of Manufacturers <http://www.nam.org/>(NAM) has
launched theManufacturers' Accountability Project
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/about-us/>, (MAP) which aims to
undermine what it calls a coordinated campaign that "jeopardizes the
ability of all manufacturers to continue growing and providing jobs to
millions of Americans." NAM identifies those behind the campaign as
"trial lawyers, public officials, deep-pocketed foundations and other
activists."..
MAP targets the new climate tort cases filed in California, as well as
the New York and Massachusetts attorneys general investigations into
ExxonMobil. Blog posts on the MAP website call out actions by specific
individuals and organizations, including attorneyMatt Pawa
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/2017/12/04/second-installment-insights-pawas-calculations-legal-strategy-attack-energy-manufacturers/>,
New York Attorney GeneralEric Schneiderman
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/2017/11/28/rise-partisan-ag-schneiderman-takes-peabody/>,
350.org founderBill McKibben
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/2017/12/08/two-years-later-politically-motivated-investigation-rallying-cry-manufacturers/>,
theUnion of Concerned Scientists
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/2017/12/01/money-power-corrupted-union-concerned-scientists/>,
the nonprofit news websiteInsideClimate News
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/2017/11/13/la-jolla-anatomy-plot-part-ii/>and
others.
The project springs from NAM'sManufacturers' Center for Legal Action
<http://www.nam.org/The-Center-For-Legal-Action/>, which alleges that
this activist campaign is politically motivated and intended for profit
at the expense of American workers. "It has become clear that these
activist plaintiffs' attorneys, sympathetic academics and agenda-driven
media outlets are distorting the use of tort litigation to advance their
narratives with the ultimate objective of undermining manufacturers and
the engine of the American economy," NAM senior vice president and
general counsel Linda Kelly said in apress release
<http://www.nam.org/Newsroom/Press-Releases/2017/11/NAM-Unveils-Campaign-to-Expose-Activist-Litigation-Against-American-Manufacturers/>announcing
the initiative.
One of its main arguments is that plaintiff attorneys are bringing these
climate cases purely for their own profit and the expense of fighting
the claims comes at the expensive of job and wage increases. In
aNovember op-ed
<https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/trial-lawyers-relentless-war-on-manufacturers-kills-jobs-lowers-standards-of-living/>in
Investor's Business Daily, Kelly wrote, "Trial lawyers are waging a
reckless assault against American manufacturers in pursuit of a fat
payday for themselves."
Carroll Muffett, president of the Center for International Environmental
Law debunked Kelly's claim that climate cases are driven by trial
lawyers seeking a big payday, calling it simplistic and incorrect.
"The challenge with that argument is that these cases are not simply
being brought by lawyers. They're being brought by nonprofit
organizations, they're being brought by state attorneys general, they're
now being brought by cities' attorneys," Muffett said. "The most obvious
profit motive involves those companies who are being sued, not those who
are bringing the investigation."
"The deep irony is the name of the website and of the project," Muffett
added. "We would welcome them helping us hold those who are most
responsible for climate impacts responsible, but that is clearly not
their goal."
The timing of the initiative is also telling. "What is ironic is the
launch of this project at precisely the moment when the courts are
finally addressing and overwhelmingly rejecting the sort of empty legal
arguments that Exxon and its corporate and political allies have been
making with respect to the ongoing investigations," Muffett said....
"These companies shouldn't be able to hide behind their trade
associations and take contradictory positions." NAM, he said, "is not
only a hypocrite, but it doesn't have the courage to take a stand under
oath."
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/12/15/nam-climate-liability-industry/
-
*The Manufacturers' Accountability Project (MAP)
<http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/>*will set the record straight and
highlight the concerted, coordinated campaign being waged by trial
lawyers, public officials, deep-pocketed foundations and other activists
who have sought to undermine and weaken manufacturers in the United States.
http://mfgaccountabilityproject.org/
*
*[Science Daily News Release]*
Effects of climate change could accelerate by mid-century
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171214144522.htm>*
Environmental models are showing that the effects of climate change
could be much stronger by the middle of the 21st century, and a number
of ecosystem and weather conditions could consistently decline even more
in the future.
Nature lovers beware, environmental models used by researchers at the
University of New Hampshire are showing that the effects of climate
change could be much stronger by the middle of the 21st century, and a
number of ecosystem and weather conditions could consistently decline
even more in the future. If carbon dioxide emissions continue at the
current rate, they report that scenarios of future conditions could not
only lead to a significant decrease in snow days, but also an increase
in the number of summer days over 90 degrees and a drastic decline in
stream habitat with 40 percent not suitable for cold water fish.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171214144522.htm
[Carbon Brief]
*Analysis: Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans>*
There are many techniques that can be - and are - deployed to avoid
acting on climate change.
Perhaps the easiest, in terms of minimising mental effort, is to simply
refuse to accept that it is happening at all. But this becomes quite
challenging to maintain when it can be shown demonstrably that the
global climate over the past century has changed, according to a variety
of metrics
<https://carbonbrief.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=39b25e6afa81d7ffc0e925ee9&id=afae5441ce&e=04b4ed6ded>.
Another tactic is to refuse to believe that humans are in anyway to
blame for those changes. However, this also becomes a hard position to
defend when you weigh up all
<https://carbonbrief.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=39b25e6afa81d7ffc0e925ee9&id=bd46460fbe&e=04b4ed6ded>the
scientific
<https://carbonbrief.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=39b25e6afa81d7ffc0e925ee9&id=d784b9fbc9&e=04b4ed6ded>
evidence
<https://carbonbrief.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=39b25e6afa81d7ffc0e925ee9&id=82cd3f9c6a&e=04b4ed6ded>.
What's causing global warming? <https://youtu.be/sKDWW9WlPSc> video
https://youtu.be/sKDWW9WlPSc
Carbon Brief's analysis finds that:
- Since 1850, almost all the long-term warming can be explained by
greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities.
- If greenhouse gas emissions alone were warming the planet, we would
expect to see about a third more warming than has actually occurred. - -
- - They are offset by cooling from human-produced atmospheric aerosols.
- Aerosols are projected to decline significantly by 2100, bringing
total warming from all factors closer to warming from greenhouse gases
alone.
- Natural variability in the Earth's climate is unlikely to play a major
role in long-term warming.
...the IPCC's implied best guess was that humans were responsible for
around 110% of observed warming (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural
factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years.
Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that
between 93% to 123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human
activities...
A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural
climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most
likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years,
offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities...
While there are natural factors that affect the Earth's climate, the
combined influence of volcanoes and changes in solar activity would have
resulted in cooling rather than warming over the past 50 years.
The global warming witnessed over the past 150 years matches nearly
perfectly what is expected from greenhouse gas emissions and other human
activity, both in the simple model examined here and in more complex
climate models. The best estimate of the human contribution to modern
warming is around 100%....
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans
[Religion]
*Hoping against hope in the face of climate crisis
<https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2017/15-december/comment/opinion/hoping-against-hope-in-the-face-of-climate-crisis>*
Despite the urgent need for a rapid, international response, wealthy
nations such as the UK continue to perpetuate a collective "soft denial"
of the climate crisis. This was underscored in the latest Budget, in
which the Treasury quietly published a document stating that there would
be no new subsidies for renewable energy until at least 2025....
This state of cognitive dissonance set the context for the Green Party
co-leader Jonathan Bartley's recent Annual Lecture for the William
Temple Foundation (Comment, 24 November), "Engaging a Politics of Hope".
The lecture powerfully explored a wide range of policy areas, presenting
nothing less than a green paradigm shift made necessary by the
interconnected crises of environment, economics, immigration, education,
and health.
YET "hope" is a word that I have struggled with as I have begun to
research the strange psychology of our response to issues such as
climate change. As Bruno Latour puts it in his book Facing Gaia, there
is something about the climate crisis in particular which "drives people
crazy". There is, of course, the insanity of outright denial,
represented out of all proportion by the media on both sides of the
Atlantic.
But the danger of focusing on the madness of the "climate-change
deniers" is that it normalises our own often equally "mad" responses.
Latour suggests there are at least four other forms of commonplace madness:
-the "low-level" madness of quietism, a lack of political action
generated by the assured hope that some transcendent Other (be it God or
Nature) will swoop in to save the day;
-the frenetic madness of hyper-modernity that places its hope in
geoengineering: radical technologies such as "solar radiation
management" and "carbon capture and storage" (CCS) that provide the
illusion of control;
-the hope-filled madness of those who believe that our existing
political institutions - especially our governments - will surely act
rationally when the situation calls them to do so;
-and, finally, the hopeless madness of those who despair at the urgency
of the situation and our collective inaction: a phenomenon that the
social scientist Dr Renee Lertzman has dubbed "environmental
melancholia", which may be more widespread than appearances betray.
"There is no cure for the condition of belonging to the world," Latour
says. If we are living in a mad world - a situation that the novelist
Amitav Ghosh calls "The Great Derangement" - then it may be that there
is no alternative to madness. In that case, we can only choose which
form of madness we will embrace.
https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2017/15-december/comment/opinion/hoping-against-hope-in-the-face-of-climate-crisis
[TIME magazine]
*Climate Change Is Already Wreaking Havoc on Our Weather, Scientists
Find <http://time.com/5064577/climate-change-arctic/>*
While there are natural factors that affect the Earth's climate, the
combined influence of volcanoes and changes in solar activity would have
resulted in cooling rather than warming over the past 50 years.
The global warming witnessed over the past 150 years matches nearly
perfectly what is expected from greenhouse gas emissions and other human
activity, both in the simple model examined here and in more complex
climate models. The best estimate of the human contribution to modern
warming is around 100%.
http://time.com/5064577/climate-change-arctic/
[Yale e360]
*How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe
<http://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe>*
The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely.
Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of
ice and cold freshwater that could kick off a period of lower
temperatures in northern Europe.
The gyre's strange behavior is likely linked, at least in part, to the
profound warming of the Arctic.
There just isn't enough Arctic data out there to make firm predictions
in a world where climate change, ocean currents, and atmospheric forces
interact in complex ways."
Unprecedented Collapse of the Arctic Beaufort Gyre
https://youtu.be/JvJsV2NHlLU?t=4m33s
Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_Gyre
And in NSIDC https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/circulation.html
In the Arctic, land encircles much of the sea ice, constraining its
flow, resulting in ridging and thicker sea ice. The overall flow of
Antarctic ice is quite different. There is no northern land boundary for
the northward flowing sea ice to run into, so the ice flows northward
until it melts in warmer oceans and air temperatures. Because of this,
Antarctic sea ice is younger and thinner, on average, than ice in the
Arctic. Most sea ice in the Antarctic is less than a year old (see
Thermodynamics in the Processes section).
http://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe
[Cli Fi author interview Yale Climate Connections]
*Dystopian climate fiction gets personal
<https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/12/dystopian-climate-fiction-gets-personal/>*
Amy Brady interviews award-winning poet Megan Hunter on her novel about
a flood that destroys London.
Born in Manchester, the award-winning poet Megan Hunter publishes her
first novel this month. The End We Start From stars a young mother who
gives birth during a massive flood that wipes out most of London.
Lyrical yet quick-paced, and beautifully written, the book ekes
something like poetry out of climate change.
Like other books explored in this column, The End We Start From is about
more than the devastating realities of catastrophic events. It's about
how people love, grieve, and adapt in the face of such disasters. I
recently spoke with Hunter about her new novel, including its
mythic-like qualities and celebration of female strength, and how her
own fears of climate change led her to explore the phenomenon in fiction.
Amy Brady: It feels strange to say it, but there are many
end-of-civilization scenarios to choose from. Why did you pick a massive
flood?
Megan Hunter: It was always going to be a flood, and this was important
to me for several reasons. First of all, it is one of the most probable
- and already existent - outcomes of climate change. There is also the
link with mythology and religion, a sense that water has always been at
the core of humanity's imaginings of both its beginning and end. It was
also important to me to link the waters of the earth to the waters of
the pregnant woman's body: to connect the primordial with the amniotic.
Amy Brady: Climate scientists are no longer asking whether the world's
major cities will be flooded by the end of the century - they're asking
how bad the flooding is going to be. Do issues of climate change
interest you beyond what you write about in your fiction?
Megan Hunter: Yes - my imagination has been shaped by the prospect of
environmental decline and disaster since childhood. I grew up in the
countryside and have always spent a lot of time walking and exploring
nature. I was very angry and overwhelmed about climate change when I was
younger, and then this developed into something slightly different when
I had children: a kind of deep sadness connected to their future, and a
need to explore this in my writing.
Amy Brady: One of the things I loved most about The End We Start From is
its focus on the narrator's inner life. Yes, we see hints of just how
bad things have gotten in London post-flood, but mostly we witness the
narrator's thoughts and feelings about herself, her son, her husband,
and her new friends. What led you to write a quasi-apocalyptic novel
that's so centered on personal psyches and interpersonal relationships?
Megan Hunter: For me, these are some of the most interesting questions
that literature can begin to answer about disastrous situations: How
does it feel? How does it taste, and smell, and what happens to our
usual thought processes? This is what I love most in fiction, its
ability to present the intricacy of our experience at the most tangible
and simultaneously stretching way. There is an atmosphere in dystopian
and post-apocalyptic narratives that interested me, and I wanted to go
inside this atmosphere and understand it as a personal experience. I
grew up watching disaster movies but the people in them never seemed
fully three-dimensional. Perhaps I wanted to fill some of those gaps -
to explore, through one woman's experience the ways that climate change
may change our self-perception, but also to think about what wouldn't
change, what might stay just the same despite it all.
'There is an atmosphere in dystopian and post-apocalyptic narratives ...
I wanted to go inside this ...' CLICK TO TWEET
Amy Brady: I've seen some critics draw symbolic parallels between the
biblical flood and the flood that destroys London in your book. Is this
a connection you intended?
Megan Hunter: Yes - and not just with the biblical flood. In my readings
of creation mythology I was struck by how much the beginnings of the
world are characterized by the earth emerging from the water. There is a
hope as well as a destructive power in the water, a sense that we are
always having to define ourselves in relation to the power of the sea. I
knew that I wanted the book to have a particular shape characterized by
endings and beginnings, and by both loss and redemption.
Amy Brady: The last few lines are deeply moving, and I don't want to
spoil them for future readers. But I will say this: Your book feels very
hopeful by the end. Are you hopeful when it comes to climate change?
Megan Hunter: I am hopeful, and I'm aware that this might seem naïve in
the face of the challenge ahead. But I think that hope is actually
essential if we are to take action: If there is no hope for the planet
then there is no point doing anything. And hope, for me, is not the same
as optimism: it isn't about conceiving of something tangible in the
future that necessarily provides hope, but about recognizing the
essentially unknown nature of the future, the reality of possibility. I
am very influenced by the philosopher Ernst Bloch's ideas about hope. In
his work he is interested in uncovering the traces of hope in everyday
life, literature and art. And there is something similar happening in
the creation myth of the earth diver, who finds a scrap of material in
the water that becomes the whole world. So that is what I am exploring
at the end of the book: the idea of finding a scrap or trace of hope
amidst desolation, something to carry us forward, without somehow
pronouncing that everything is OK.
Amy Brady: The strength with which the narrator deals with the changes
in her body post-birth make her seem tough as nails - like someone who
can get through anything. As I read, I was struck by just how rare it is
to read about early motherhood in literature - the breast feeding, the
pain, etc. - and how even rarer it is to see this in novels featuring
end-of-the-world events. What inspired you to write about a young mother
instead of, say, a brawny male hero?
Megan Hunter: I had been exploring motherhood in poetry and fiction for
years, and was keen to convey the way that the experience itself can
feel dystopian at points: as though the whole world changes and your
place in it is suddenly uncertain. There is a strangeness to everything
that can be alienating but also refreshing: I thought it would be
interesting to make this experience "real", manifested in changes in the
physical world around the narrator.
I was also struck when having my own children by the bravery and
persistence that is required in early motherhood, and how little this is
lauded in literature (or elsewhere!). The fact is that, for many women,
they are having to deal with profound changes in their bodies and minds
while having to care for someone else who is utterly vulnerable and
completely dependent on them. I don't think there is enough
acknowledgement of this, and so much of it - birth injury, birth trauma
- goes unspoken and unrecognized beyond the (fairly time-limited) event
of the birth itself. It's a taboo, still. In the book, the mother is
made vulnerable by her new motherhood but is also strengthened by it: as
you say, there is a sense that she has to survive, that she can keep going.
Amy Brady: The narrative of The End We Start From is occasionally
interjected with passages from other works. Where did these passages
come from and how did you arrive at this particular structure?
Megan Hunter: The italicized passages were there from the beginning,
interspersed with the main narrative. I'm very interested in collage,
and the idea of a literary collage appealed to me. Writing the book felt
more like something musical at points: dancing, or singing, if that
doesn't sound too ridiculous. It was very instinctual and based on what
the rhythm of the text needed to be. The whole process was quite
mysterious and like nothing I'd experienced before: It felt like the
book knew what it needed to be, and I just had to listen and follow.
The passages themselves are adapted from a very wide range of mythology
of both creation and apocalypse, and although they were always present
in some form, they also shifted quite a lot in the editing process. I
had to think about how closely I wanted them to relate to the main text;
as in collage, I didn't want the juxtapositions to be overly obvious.
Amy Brady: What's next for you?
Megan Hunter: I'm currently working on a novel. I seemed to know as soon
as I finished The End We Start From that the next step for me would be
to write something longer, and in quite a different form. It's taken me
a while to work out what the exact shape and subject of this would be;
it's still important for me to be playful and to try out new things in
my work, even within this somewhat more conventional structure.
Hopefully I'm on my way now, and it's proving to be a fascinating
challenge. I'm struck by how thoroughly it has felt like starting all
over again, as though I've never written a book before.
Megan Hunter was born in Manchester and now lives in Cambridge with her
young family. Her poetry has been shortlisted for the Bridport Prize and
she was a finalist for the Aesthetica Creative Writing Award with her
short story Selfing. The End We Start From is her first book.
The interview is re-posted here with permission of Brady and the Chicago
Review of Books.
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/12/dystopian-climate-fiction-gets-personal/
[Business Insider]
*Earth will likely warm way beyond the crucial tipping point that the
Paris agreement was meant to avoid
<http://www.businessinsider.com/paris-agreement-not-on-track-climate-change-2017-12>*
- A new report estimates that global temperature will increase 3.2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
- That's well over the 2-degree limit set by the Paris Agreement in 2015.
- But it's not all bad news: China and India have made huge strides in
curbing greenhouse gas emissions, despite the US' pledge to pull out of
the agreement.
The Paris Agreement pushed member nations to curb their greenhouse gas
emissions, like carbon dioxide and methane, in order to keep global
temperatures from increasing more than 2 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels. Each country submitted its own plan for reducing
emissions that cause our atmosphere to trap more heat.
But if all of the signatories fulfill their pledges - and that's a big
if - global temperatures will still increase by 3.2 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to
Climate Tracker's latest report
<http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_2017-11-15_Improvement-in-warming-outlook.pdf>....
It's important to note, however, that modeling climate change is a
highly complex process with many variables, so these effects are a
matter of probabilities, not an absolute certainty.
http://www.businessinsider.com/paris-agreement-not-on-track-climate-change-2017-12
*This Day in Climate History December 16, 1995
<December%2016,%201995:%20The%202nd%20IPCC%20report%20is%20released.,,http://www.csmonitor.com/1995/1218/18032.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
December 16, 1995: The 2nd IPCC report is released.
http://www.csmonitor.com/1995/1218/18032.html
/
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