[TheClimate.Vote] July 1, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jul 1 10:05:17 EDT 2017
/July 1, 2017
/ *Europe's extreme June heat clearly linked to climate change, research
shows
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/30/europes-extreme-june-heat-clearly-linked-to-climate-change-research-shows>*
Heatwaves that saw deadly forest fires in Portugal and soaring
temperatures in England were made up to 10 times more likely by global
warming, say scientists
Human-caused climate change dramatically increased the likelihood of the
extreme heatwave that saw deadly forest fires blazing in Portugal and
Spain, new research has shown.
Much of western Europe sweltered earlier in June, and the severe heat in
England, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland was also made
significantly more likely by global warming. Such temperatures will
become the norm by 2050, the scientists warned, unless action is taken
to rapidly cut carbon emissions.
Scientists combined temperature records and the latest observations with
a series of sophisticated computer models to calculate how much the
global rise in greenhouse gases has raised the odds of the soaring
temperatures...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/30/europes-extreme-june-heat-clearly-linked-to-climate-change-research-shows
*Sophie's Op-Ed by James Hansen*
<http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/30/sophies-op-ed/>
Text of Sophie's op-ed in the Morning Call (Eastern Pennsylvania news)
is below. A few pieces of good news:
(1) The paper "Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2
Emissions" has been accepted for publication in Earth System Dynamics.
We are checking the page proofs now. It will be published in mid-July -
more on it later.
(2) The trial date for our legal case (Juliana et al versus United
States), now with Donald Trump as the first defendant, has been set for
seven months from now (5 February 2018) before Judge Ann Aiken
..We listened as the government's lawyers argued that we had a weak
case. They did not deny global warming or the damage being done to
the planet, but they denied any responsibility to address the crisis.
First, the U.S. government sets our national energy policy and what
kind of fuels we use. When it sets standards for how inefficient the
things that burn those fuels can be, like our cars, the U.S.
government is taking action. When it leases land to corporations to
dig up coal or drill for oil or gas, the U.S. government is taking
action. When it offers tax breaks and subsidies to fossil fuel
companies, the U.S. government is taking action. When it permits the
pollution that comes out of the energy system it controls, the U.S.
government is taking action. When you add up all these actions, the
U.S. government, more than anyone else, is responsible for the level
of carbon dioxide pollution that will determine the climate in my
lifetime.
As a young person, I'm not worried about President Donald Trump's
opinions on climate change, but the U.S. government's actions.
Because I know the actions it takes today to promote fossil fuels
will cause fossil fuel emissions, and those emissions will cause
climate change. And that climate change will mean impacts that I
will have to live with, throughout my lifetime....
http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/30/sophies-op-ed/
*Half-a-degree of warming boosted extreme weather*
<https://phys.org/news/2017-06-half-a-degree-boosted-extreme-weather.html>
Half a degree Celsius of global warming has been enough to increase heat
waves and heavy rains in many regions of the planet, researchers
reported Friday.
Read more at:
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-half-a-degree-boosted-extreme-weather.html#jCp
Comparing two 20-year periods - 1960-79 and 1991-2010 - between which
average global temperatures jumped 0.5 C (0.9 F), scientists found that
several kinds of extreme weather gained in duration and intensity.
The hottest summer temperatures increased by more than 1 C (1.8 F)
across a quarter of Earth's land areas, while the coldest winter
temperatures warmed by more then 2.5 C (4.5 F).
The intensity of extreme precipitation grew nearly 10 percent across a
quarter of all land masses, and the duration of hot spells—which can
fuel devastating forest fires - lengthened by a week in half of land areas.
These changes were well outside the bounds of natural variability,
according to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
"We have to rely on climate models to predict the future," said lead
author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute
of Climate Impact Research.
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-half-a-degree-boosted-extreme-weather.html
*CLIMATE IMPACT MAP <http://www.impactlab.org/map/>*
Explore the ways in which climate change will impact where you live,
work and do business.
Starting with changes in temperature, this map will expand to include
projected social and economic impacts in the weeks and months ahead.
http://www.impactlab.org/map/*
****
****Major correction to satellite data shows 140% faster warming since
1998
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/major-correction-to-satellite-data-shows-140-faster-warming-since-1998>*
A new paper published in the Journal of Climate reveals that the lower
part of the Earth's atmosphere has warmed much faster since 1979 than
scientists relying on satellite data had previously thought.
Researchers from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), based in California, have
released a substantially revised version of their lower tropospheric
temperature record.
After correcting for problems caused by the decaying orbit of
satellites, as well as other factors, they have produced a new record
showing 36% faster warming since 1979 and nearly 140% faster (e.g. 2.4
times faster) warming since 1998. This is in comparison to the previous
version 3 of the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) data published in
2009.
Climate sceptics have long claimed that satellite data shows global
warming to be less pronounced that observational data collected on the
Earth's surface. This new correction to the RSS data substantially
undermines that argument. The new data actually shows more warming than
has been observed on the surface, though still slightly less than
predicted in most climate models...
These divergences suggest that there is still a lot of uncertainty
surrounding satellite temperature records that needs to be resolved, as
the range of reasonable assumptions for corrections can lead to large
differences in results....
https://www.carbonbrief.org/major-correction-to-satellite-data-shows-140-faster-warming-since-1998
*
**Climate Change Looms More Terrifying Than Any Fiction
<http://www.nationalmemo.com/climate-change-looms-more-terrifying-than-any-fiction/>*
Cynthia Tucker Haynes
Yet, we dither. We dispute. We do nothing. In the face of one of the
most dangerous threats humankind has ever faced — rivaled only by the
threat of nuclear annihilation - American political leaders have decided
to behave as if it's nothing more than the mindless plot of a summer
blockbuster.
It's not. ...
...This isn't merely dispiriting. It's downright frightening. I had
always believed that, given factual information, literate citizens of a
wealthy democracy like the United States would behave rationally, acting
on that information to preserve their survival. I was wrong....
http://www.nationalmemo.com/climate-change-looms-more-terrifying-than-any-fiction/
*(audio+ text) Study suggests climate change will hit poorer parts of
U.S. hardest
<https://www.marketplace.org/2017/06/30/economy/study-suggests-climate-change-will-hit-poorer-parts-us-hardest>*
A new study in the journal Science
<http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362> deals with the
financial impacts that unchecked climate change would have on the United
States. It finds for each degree Fahrenheit increase, there'll be a 0.7
percent hit to gross domestic product. In some poorer parts of the
country, that can jump to 20 percent.
The study looks at how higher temperatures, increased flooding and sea
level rise would affect things like agriculture, mortality and crime.
There's a nationwide impact, but it's much bigger in hotter regions,
which tend to be poorer, according to Robert Kopp, one of the study's
authors and director of the Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric
Sciences at Rutgers University.
"The areas that are warmer in the country are more at risk from the
impacts of climate change, and we also found that those areas that are
warmer — the way they happen to be distributed means those also tend to
be poorer parts of the country," Kopp said.
"Even if you have a way to manage those risks, it's going to be more
costly to do those in the areas where the risks are larger," he said.
"And so climate change sets up this factor that will enhance inequality
in our country."
Craig Fugate, a former Federal Emergency Management Agency
administrator, said that insurers and investors aren't currently
factoring in climate change when they look at these areas. And that's
encouraging people to keep building in places that are vulnerable.
"I haven't seen anybody's bond rating being affected based upon their
risk to storm surge increasing, flood risk, heavy rainfalls," Fugate
said. "And their tax bases are increasingly becoming more vulnerable to
these changes."
But the effects of climate change will eventually catch up with the land
value in these areas.
"Probably, if you're in a county where you have a 20 percent hit to GDP,
a lot of people are going to move, and so for those counties, the effect
may be even worse, because people are going to respond to this risk by
moving, which will moderate the national impact but exaggerate it
locally," Kopp said.
The team behind the research is now looking to apply its model on a
global scale.
https://www.marketplace.org/2017/06/30/economy/study-suggests-climate-change-will-hit-poorer-parts-us-hardest
*How to Tell If Your Reps Are Serious About Climate Change - Bill
McKibben*
<http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/how-politicians-must-fight-climate-change-in-the-trump-era-w489549>
In the wake of Trump pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, how
serious are your elected leaders about fighting back?
So politicians are speaking out. But at this point we need more than
nice rhetoric, more than empty pledges to "live up to the Paris
accords." As I write in this week's Rolling Stone
<http://act.350.org/go/14905?t=3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=actionkit&akid=23246.2926285.uuLtkq>,
we need real, measurable commitments. It's time, in particular, for
politicians to:
*1) Stop new fossil fuel infrastructure. *If you're serious about Paris,
that means realizing we're already overshooting the temperature targets
we set there – there's literally no more room in the carbon budget for
more pipelines, more frack fields, more coal ports. If France's new
president can put an end to exploration for oil and gas, so can our leaders.
*2) Commit to 100% renewables*. Not to "more solar panels," but to
powering our cities and states with sun and wind, and soon. Already
cities from Atlanta to Salt Lake to San Diego have made the pledge;
California's state senate has already passed such a bill. 100% is the
most important number we've got.
*3) Recognize that natural gas is as bad an enemy as coal or oil*. This
has been America's greatest climate mistake in recent years: we've
driven down our carbon emissions by driving up the methane that natural
gas production pours into the atmosphere, meaning we're making no
progress. And all that cheap fracked gas is holding back the conversion
to actual clean energy. It's got to stop.
We'll be working hard on all these battles in the months ahead – making
noise in town halls during August's congressional recess, continuing
resistance in the pipeline routes, and launching an ambitious new
grassroots campaign this Fall. We're 100% in on 100%. Resources would
help as we gear up for more campaigning – if you can, please donate
here. 350.org is building a global climate movement
<http://act.350.org/go/14?t=1&akid=23246.2926285.uuLtkq>
Most of all, though, we need you spreading the word. Precisely because
this is a desperate moment, we don't have the luxury of despair. It's
time to fight....
If we let politicians simply "stand up for science" or promise to
someday reincarnate the Paris accord, then we will never catch up with
climate change. If instead the rage that Trump has provoked catapults us
into truly serious action – well, that will be the best revenge.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/how-politicians-must-fight-climate-change-in-the-trump-era-w489549
*This Day in Climate History July 1, 1983
<http://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/flatview?cuecard=40383>
- from D.R. Tucker*
July 1, 1983: NBC's "Today" reports on the risk of sea level rise from
global warming.
"Beach Erosion Theory: Greenhouse Effect Melts Polar Ice, Raises Sea
Level" NBC Today Show, New York, NY: NBC Universal, 07/01/1983. Accessed
Sun Jan 18 2015 from NBC Learn:
https://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/browse/?cuecard=40383
* Transcript*
*Beach Erosion Theory: Greenhouse Effect Melts Polar Ice, Raises Sea
Level*
JANE PAULEY, anchor:
It’s a 4th of July weekend. Bags are packed. Skies are clear.
Millions of you will be heading for the shore for sun, sandy
beaches, and cooling surf. Some will dream, perhaps, even of owning
a beach front cottage, but beware. Winter storms and controversial
seawalls are hastening the beach front erosion and there is a
growing feeling among scientists that we should just let them fall.
Dr. Orrin Pilkey is a geologist at Duke University who I think would
agree with that. He’s been studying the nation’s shoreline and
watching it erode. Why is our shoreline shrinking?
Dr. ORRIN PILKEY (Geologist): Well, there are a number of reasons,
but probably the principle reason, the reason that 80 to 90 percent
of our shoreline is eroding is that the sea level is rising and the
sea level is rising maybe at a rate of a foot and a half per century
right now and this rise is expected to accelerate.
PAULEY: What causes this, the rise of the oceans?
Dr. PILKEY: Probably due to an excess production of Carbon Dioxide
by automobiles and -
PAULEY: The Greenhouse Effect.
Dr. PILKEY: The Greenhouse Effect, which is warming up the
atmosphere, which is melting the Antarctic ice cap very very slowly
and -
PAULEY: Well, how fast is this melting process and rising process
eroding our shores?
Dr. PILKEY: Well, for every, for a very small increment of sea level
rise, you get a very large horizontal retreat, something like the
ratio of 1 to a thousand, so if we have a 1 foot rise in sea level
this century, we can expect, theoretically, at least, something of
the order of a thousand, two thousand feet shoreline retreat on our
coastal plain coast.
PAULEY: Is that inevitable or can it be controlled?
Dr. PILKEY: Can’t be controlled, no way to – well, okay, the
shoreline erosion problem can be, buildings can be saved by building
seawalls, but this creates problems.
PAULEY: Some examples – Galveston, Texas had, well, a hurricane.
Dr. PILKEY: Yeah, 1900, Galveston had a hurricane that killed 6,000
people and in response to this, they built a massive seawall, the
largest seawall on any barrier island. I think one can understand
why they built it, but the price they paid was basically the loss of -
PAULEY: Can we see the price here?
Dr. PILKEY: Yeah, you can see there’s no beach there. This is Cape
May, New Jersey here.
PAULEY: And there’s no beach there either, is there?
Dr. PILKEY: That’s right. This is oldest shoreline resort in America.
PAULEY: Was there a beach?
Dr. PILKEY: There was a beach there up until 1912, 1920- something,
like 1918, something like that.
PAULEY: That’s ancient history.
Dr. PILKEY: Yeah, that’s ancient history is right. There is a little
beach there now at low tide, but basically the beach is gone and
what they’ve done, they have saved the buildings temporarily at the
price of the loss of the beach.
PAULEY: You mean, had they sacrificed the buildings, they might
still have some beach?
Dr. PILKEY: Yes, if they had allowed the buildings to fall in – very
simple – they’d allow the buildings to fall in. The beach would
still be there.
PAULEY: Sea Island, Georgia.
Dr. PILKEY: Sea Island Georgia – Now this particular picture here is
Palm Beach, Florida, which is one of our more famous beaches, but
you can see that the beach is essentially gone here because of the
problem of the seawalls.
PAULEY: But Miami Beach had a problem like that, too, and they
reclaimed their beaches, didn’t they?
Dr. PILKEY: Yes, they did, quite successfully, but at a cost of $65
million - $68 million for 15 miles of shoreline.
PAULEY: And is it a permanent solution?
Dr. PILKEY: No, it’s a solution that might last a decade, something
like that.
PAULEY: So what is the solution in general, like just to throw up
your hands and welcome the oceans?
Dr. PILKEY: Well, that’s one of the nice things about this
environmental problem is that the best solution is probably to do
nothing. That is, to let the houses fall in as their time comes.
This is a very politically unpopular solution.
PAULEY: It is.
Dr. PILKEY: There are ways of letting houses fall in. One can buy
the houses or one can move the houses before their time comes. The
real difficult part of this, though, is what to do about the ten
story condominiums that line the shorelines of West Florida,
Pinellas County, and places like that. It’s difficult to let them
fall in, difficult to move them.
PAULEY: It’s not a real cheerful message.
http://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/flatview?cuecard=40383
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