[TheClimate.Vote] July 19, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jul 19 09:48:57 EDT 2017
/July 19, 2017/
*Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions
<http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2017/07/18/young-peoples-burden-requirement-of-negative-co2-emissions/>*
Hansen, et al
Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions is
available here in pdf
<http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2017/20170718_BurdenCommunication.pdf><http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2017/20170718_BurdenCommunication.pdf>format,
on my web site, <http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/> and on our blog.
<http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/blog/>
Above paper is published today in Earth System Dynamics. There is also a
video with Sophie and Jim.
Conclusions include:
1. Global warming in the past 50 years has raised global temperature
(Fig. 1) well above the prior range in the Holocene (the current
interglacial period, approximately the past 11,700 years) to the level
of the Eemian period (130,000 to 115,000 years ago), when sea level was
6-9 meters (20-30 feet) higher than today.
2. Global warming can be held below 1.5°C (the aspirational goal of the
Paris Agreement) if rapid reductions of global CO2 emission (at least
3%/year) begin by 2021 and if there is no net growth of other climate
forcings (Fig. 2). However, 1.5°C global warming exceeds estimated
Eemian temperature and is not an appropriate goal.
3. The growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated
markedly in the past several years (Fig. 3), a conclusion starkly at
odds with the common narrative that the world has recently turned the
corner toward a solution of the global warming problem.
4. An appropriate goal is to return global temperature to the Holocene
range within a century. Such a goal was still achievable in 2013 if
rapid emission reductions had begun at that time and if there were a
global program for reforestation and improved agricultural and forestry
practices. Now climate restoration this century would also require
substantial technological extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid
emission reductions do not begin soon, the burden placed on young people
to extract CO2 emitted by prior generations may become implausibly
difficult and costly. 18 July 2017
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
*Al Gore Plots Climate Change Special With Fat Joe, Steve Aoki
<http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033>*
MTV will air half-hour program tied to former Vice President's new
documentary, 'An Inconvenient Sequel'
By Jon Blistein Rolling Stone Magazine
Former Vice President Al Gore will host an MTV special on climate change
featuring Fat Joe and Steve Aoki, August 2nd at 7:30 p.m. ET/PT,
Billboard reports. An Inconvenient Special will be a half-hour town
hall-style conversation with young people about the effects of climate
change.
/(video preview
<http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033>
http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033)/
Al Gore on Climate Change: 'We Will Solve This'
"I thought there was a chance [Trump] would come to his senses, but I
was wrong," ...
The special is tied to Gore's upcoming movie, An Inconvenient Sequel:
Truth to Power, which arrives July 28th. The film tracks the efforts
made to tackle climate change since the release of Gore's 2006
Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.
MTV News correspondent Gaby Wilson will moderate the town hall portion
of the special, which will give young people the chance to speak out
about climate change. An Inconvenient Special will also look
specifically at the impact of climate change on Miami, where Fat Joe
lives and where Aoki was born. Aoki will serve as a city correspondent
during the special, while Fat Joe will appear in a field piece alongside
17-year-old Miami-based activist Delaney Reynolds.
http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033
*Investigators want to question this man in court
<https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060057453>*
Benjamin Hulac, E&E News reporter
Published: Monday, July 17, 2017
Jason Iwanika, a greenhouse gas analyst in Canada, could be a key
witness in the high-profile probe into Exxon Mobil Corp.'s climate
change policies.
But Exxon has fought efforts to get him to testify.
New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D) has started questioning
witnesses in his ongoing investigation of Exxon - including greenhouse
gas experts. But while Exxon has made at least four other employees
available for depositions in June and July, the oil giant has fought
particularly hard to shield Iwanika - an analyst at an Exxon subsidiary
- from investigators' questions. Exxon argues that his employment at the
Canadian subsidiary exempts him from being forced to testify.
According to Schneiderman, Iwanika's work is evidence that Exxon may
have defrauded its investors for years by failing to properly account
for climate change risks. The judge in New York overseeing the case,
Barry Ostrager, ordered Exxon to produce Iwanika, but it's unclear when
that could happen.
"Mr. Iwanika's testimony is highly relevant to the [attorney general's]
investigation given that documents produced by Exxon indicate that he
was directed by Exxon not to apply a proxy cost to Exxon's Canadian oil
sands projects," Schneiderman said last month...
Schneiderman and his team want to hear from him because he appears to
hold different answers from some of his peers who are also economic
planning and greenhouse gas experts for Exxon.
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060057453
*Kids Suing Trump Over Climate Change Get A Boost From Grandpa
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-hansen-kids-climate-lawsuit_us_596e6a96e4b0a03aba859561>*
He's famed climatologist James Hansen, whose new research strengthens
the case for climate action.
By Alexander C. Kaufman
"There's a narrative out there that because of the Paris accord and
because solar panels are becoming cheap, we've turned the corner on
dealing with the climate problem," Hansen said on a call with reporters.
"In fact, what we show … is that the growth rate of these greenhouse
gases is actually accelerating in the last several years, so not only do
they continue to grow, they grow faster and faster."
The research compared the currently projected warming of more than 3.6
degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, by the end of the century to
the only slightly lower global temperatures during the Eemian, an
interglacial period that ran from 130,000 to 115,000 years ago. During
that time, sea levels surged six to nine meters, or 19 to 30 feet.
At those levels, modern coastal cities would easily be submerged.
The study gives weight to the lawsuit by 21 kids and young adults who
accuse the federal government of violating their constitutional rights
to life, liberty and property by promoting fossil fuel production and
failing to implement efforts to curb climate change. The suit was filed
in 2015 with the help of the Oregon-based nonprofit Our Children's Trust.
Although it originally targeted the Obama administration, the case is
now proceeding against President Donald Trump, whose administration has
moved to roll back environmental regulations and bolster oil, gas and
coal production.
"We will leave young people in the intractable situation in which
climate change is occurring out of their control and costs of trying to
maintain a livable planet may become too high to bear," Hansen said.
Hansen, who is also a plaintiff in the suit, has a long history of
raising the alarm about global warming. He has become a sort of bogeyman
among conservative skeptics who dismiss his warnings as "alarmist."
"In particular, our case focuses on putting the best available science
in the courtroom to show how our youngest generation and future
generations will be burdened by the continued high fossil fuel
emissions," the plaintiffs' co-lead counsel Phillip Gregory said on the
call.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-hansen-kids-climate-lawsuit_us_596e6a96e4b0a03aba859561
*These 'missing charts' may change the way you think about fossil fuel
addiction
<http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction>*
By Barry Saxifrage in Analysis, Energy | July 13th 2017
Even at the relative level, the burning of fossil fuels continues to
overwhelmingly dominate global energy consumption. Decades of efforts to
shift to safer sources have barely dented fossil fuels' share, which
continues to float north of 85 per cent.
When we drill down to recent trends in oil and gas it's even more
discouraging. The burning of both those fossil carbon fuels continues to
surge dizzyingly upwards, out-running the safer alternatives. Reports
show that these twin surges threaten to "lock in" global climate failure.
The one possible point of hope for our climate and oceans is in the data
on recent coal burning. But this data is the most likely to be
under-reported. Coal burning has been spectacularly under-reported in
the past. Repeatedly. And now, as pressure grows, more and more nations
and industries stand to benefit by under-reporting. They face little
chance of being caught if they do. That's because the world lacks any
way to verify much of the global coal reporting.
Meanwhile, construction of coal plants continues to boom around the
globe and CO2 levels in our atmosphere continue to accelerate upwards.
If we want hospitable climate and oceans, the fossil fuel data suggests
that our efforts so far are far too little. In the words of California
Governor Jerry Brown, "You can't do too much to sound the alarm because
so far the response is not adequate to the challenge."
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction
*Canada Wildfires Prompt Lumber Price Surge, Mine Shutdowns
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/sweeping-wildfires-burn-canada-s-timber-as-lumber-prices-surge>*
Wildfires sweeping across British Columbia, the world's biggest exporter
of softwood lumber, sent timber prices surging and forced the closure of
two copper mines in the western Canadian province.
More than 375 fires have swept across the province, burning forests,
displacing an estimated 37,000 people from their homes, and forcing
sawmills and mines to shut down or evacuate. Lumber futures on Monday
jumped by the exchange limit in Chicago to the highest in more than two
months. Imperial Metals Corp. and Taseko Mines Ltd. both said Monday
that they've idled mines in the region.
"Forests are getting burnt, so that has a supply impact," said Paul
Quinn, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Vancouver. While the impact
on supplies is minimal so far, "the worry is they'll continue to grow
and get bigger," amid hot, dry conditions, he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/sweeping-wildfires-burn-canada-s-timber-as-lumber-prices-surge
*
**Surrendering to fear brought us climate change denial and President
Trump
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jul/17/surrendering-to-fear-brought-us-climate-change-denial-and-president-trump>*
I propose that people take indefensible positions like climate denial
and Trump support simply out of fear
With climate change, people are afraid for two reasons. First, they are
afraid there is nothing they can do about it. Humans hate to have
threats that are beyond our control. We are more afraid of Ebola than
heart disease. We are more afraid of flying than driving, we are more
afraid of sharks than toasters. We afraid of things we feel we cannot
directly control.
Secondly, we are also afraid of bad news. How often have you not checked
your bank account because you don't want the bad news? Have you ever
known someone who didn't go to a doctor because they just didn't want to
know what their ailment was? It is so much easier to pretend a problem
doesn't exist. In fact, I'll go a step further and say that people like
to be lied to when it quiets their fear.
So with respect to climate change, that puts the population into two
groups. The first group (which I am part of) knows that there is a
problem, wants to face it head on, and solve it together. The second
group cannot bear to look the problem honestly in the face and finds it
easier to deny its existence....
The same is true for Trump supporters. Many people are afraid. Afraid of
change, afraid of the future, afraid of people who are not just like us,
afraid of terrorism, just plain afraid. For those people it is so easy
to buy the lie that the president will build a wall, bring the jobs
back, stop the terrorism, and make everything perfect.
We know intellectually this is all false, but facts don't matter.
Speaking to our fears is what matters. So, the psychological forces that
bring people to deny climate change are, in my opinion, the same factors
that bring people to support Trump. These factors don't mean climate
deniers are stupid, nor are Trump supporters. It doesn't mean that they
are bad people or immoral in any way. Rather, it tells me that their
brain handles fear differently than mine and yours
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jul/17/surrendering-to-fear-brought-us-climate-change-denial-and-president-trump
*Maize, rice, wheat: alarm at rising climate risk to vital crops*
<https://gu.com/p/6zq27/sbl>
Simultaneous harvest failures in key regions would bring global famine,
says the Met Office
"The group found there is a 6% chance every decade that a simultaneous
failure in maize production could occur in China and the US – the
world's main growers – which would result in widespread misery,
particularly in Africa and south Asia, where maize is consumed directly
as food."
To get round this problem, the team ran 1,400 climate model simulations
on the Met Office's new supercomputer to understand how climate might
vary in the next few years and found that the probability of severe
drought was higher than if estimated solely from past observations. The
scientists concluded that current agricultural policies could
considerably underestimate the true risk of climate-related shocks to
maize growing and food supply.
"We have found that we are not as resilient as we thought when it comes
to crop growing," said Kirsty Lewis, science manager for the Met
Office's climate security team. "We have to understand the risks we face
or there is a real danger we could get caught out. For now we don't have
the means to quantity the risks. We have to put that right."
https://gu.com/p/6zq27/sbl
*How Climate Change Denial Threatens National Security*
<https://www.wired.com/story/how-climate-change-denial-threatens-national-security/>
One of the key phrases here is "threat multiplier."
The threat multiplier paradigm is appearing in other places. Guatemala
already has problems with food security, and many regions are still left
ungoverned after that country's not-so-distant civil war. Rising seas
are bringing saltwater incursion to Egypt's Nile Delta, adding food
insecurity to that country's already tense political situation. And in
Nigeria's capital city of Lagos, nearly half of the 22 million residents
live below sea level and will eventually have to relocate-unlikely to be
easy or conflict-free. "This isn't a political issue for the defense
community," says Ann Phillips, a retired admiral and an advisor for the
Center for Climate and Security. "We in this community are pragmatic and
mission-focused."
"Current Secretary of Defense General James Mattis has testified that he
understands climate change should be addressed where it impacts his
mission," says Phillips. "But some of other agencies have directors who
are less ... interested, you could say?" That could mean the DoD is left
to mop up these problems all on its own.
"The problem with leaving it to military, is that they are trained to
deal with threats. So their solutions to climate crises tend to frame
the victims of climate change as threats," says Nick Buxton, co-editor
of The Secure and the Dispossessed, a collection of academic articles
exploring how the military and corporations are responding to climate
change.
https://www.wired.com/story/how-climate-change-denial-threatens-national-security/
*The Man Who Coined the Term 'Global Warming' on the Worst-Case Scenario
for Planet Earth
<http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/man-who-coined-global-warming-on-worst-case-scenarios.html>*
By David Wallace-Wells
This week, to accompany our cover story on worst-case climate scenarios,
we're publishing a series of extended interviews with climatologists on
the subject - most of them from the "godfather generation" of scientists
who first raised the alarm about global warming several decades ago.
The oceanographer Wallace Smith Broecker is the man who coined the term
"global warming," way back in 1975, in a paper called "Climate Change:
Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Broecker had
already distinguished himself in his work on what's called the "ocean
conveyor belt" - the system of jet streams and other circulatory
patterns that stir the planet's waters, regulating heat along the way.
Today, he is 84, still working at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory, and has given up hope that emissions reduction alone could
avert dramatic climate change....
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/man-who-coined-global-warming-on-worst-case-scenarios.html
*This Day in Climate History July 19, 2001
<http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/>
- from D.R. Tucker*
July 19, 2001: Proving that the wish is the father to the thought, White
House adviser Karen Hughes tells CNN, "The whole issue of global climate
change is something our administration is serious about."
http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/
/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
////You are encouraged to forward this email /
. *** Privacy and Security: * This is a text-only mailing that
carries no images which may originate from remote servers.
Text-only messages provide greater privacy to the receiver and
sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for
democratic and election purposes and cannot be used for
commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote with subject:
subscribe, To Unsubscribe, subject: unsubscribe
Also youmay subscribe/unsubscribe at
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Paulifor
http://TheClimate.Vote delivering succinct information for
citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously
restricted to this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20170719/63260d9e/attachment.html>
More information about the TheClimate.Vote
mailing list