[TheClimate.Vote] March 13, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News for All - 3rd year of weirdly warm
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Mar 13 12:01:13 EDT 2017
/March 13 , 2017 Weirdly warm for the 3rd year -- and why facts
don't matter. /
https://climatecrocks.com/2017/03/12/weirdly-warm-2017-could-we-set-another-record/
*"Weirdly Warm" 2017. Could we Set another record?
<https://climatecrocks.com/2017/03/12/weirdly-warm-2017-could-we-set-another-record/>*
2017 has been weirdly warm so far despite a lack of El Nino
conditions. If Jan/Feb temps were representative it would end up
surpassing 2016
Zeke Hausfather @hausfath
<https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/840763945183019008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw>
2017 has been weirdly warm so far despite a lack of El Nino
conditions. If Jan/Feb temps were representative it would end up
surpassing 2016
Robert Rohde @rarohde
<https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/840639650557485057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw>
With both January and February 2017 being warmer than the 2016
average, the odds of 2017 finishing warmer than 2016 continues
to increase.
Both (Zeke Hausfather and Robert Rohde), have been members of the
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures group, formed by climate skeptic
physicist Richard Muller - significantly, with funding from the Koch
Brothers - that closely examined surface temperature records to
finally settle, (at least in Muller's mind), what every major
scientific group has known for 40 years...
Yesterday, both of them tweeted observations about how global
temperatures are playing out.
Normally, following a giant El Nino, such as we saw in 2015-16, we
would expect a temporary drop in global temps, possibly with a
complimentary, cooling La Nina event.
That is not what we see.
The question arises - will we set new global temperature records 4
years in a row?
iPhones and*global warming*: Dispatches from a Siberian husky in the
45th Iditarod
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/iphones-and-global-warming-dispatches-from-a-siberian-husky-in-the-45th-iditarod/2017/03/12/21313c04-06ec-11e7-b9fa-ed727b644a0b_story.html>
Washington Post -11 hours ago
They're running out of snow, so "The Last Great Race on Earth" might be
down to its last race soon. As the 45th Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race
treks on, Couch Slouch is pleased that Tuffy the Snow Prince, the
outspoken 55-pound Siberian husky on musher ...
https://theconversation.com/curbing-climate-change-has-a-dollar-value-heres-how-and-why-we-measure-it-70882
Curbing*climate change* has a dollar value — here's how and why we
measure it
<http://theconversation.com/curbing-climate-change-has-a-dollar-value-heres-how-and-why-we-measure-it-70882>
The Conversation US -3 hours ago
President Trump is expected to issue an executive order soon to
reverse Obama-era rules to cut carbon pollution, including a
moratorium on leasing public lands for coal mining and a plan to
reduce carbon emissions from power plants...
Trump and his appointees argue that these steps will bring coal
miners' jobs back (although coal industry job losses reflect
competition from cheap natural gas, not regulations that have yet to
take effect). But they ignore the fact that mitigating climate
change will produce large economic gains...
While burning fossil fuels produces benefits, such as powering the
electric grid and fueling cars, it also generates widespread costs
to society – including damages from climate change that affect
people around the world now and in the future. Public policies that
reduce carbon pollution deliver benefits by avoiding these damages...
The social cost of carbon represents the damages of one ton of
carbon dioxide emitted into the air. To estimate it, economists run
models that forecast varying levels of carbon dioxide emissions.
They can then model and compare two forecasts – one with slightly
higher emissions than the other. The difference in total climate
change damages represents the social cost of carbon...
Carbon pollution can remain in the atmosphere for up to 200 years,
so these models are run over a century or more in order to account
for long-term damages that carbon emissions impose on society.
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of
*Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of
Carbon Dioxide (2017)
<https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of>*
The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to
provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the
monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive -
from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric
ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive
Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a
court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of
the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits
associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency
Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed
a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of
assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
*WHY FACTS DON'T CHANGE OUR MINDS
<http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds>*
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.
*By Elizabeth Kolbert*
Even after the evidence "for their beliefs has been totally refuted,
people fail to make appropriate revisions in those beliefs," the
researchers noted. In this case, the failure was "particularly
impressive," since two data points would never have been enough
information to generalize from....
Reason developed not to enable us to solve abstract, logical
problems or even to help us draw conclusions from unfamiliar data;
rather, it developed to resolve the problems posed by living in
collaborative groups....
If reason is designed to generate sound judgments, then it's hard to
conceive of a more serious design flaw than confirmation bias...
Steven Sloman, a professor at Brown, and Philip Fernbach, a
professor at the University of Colorado, are also cognitive
scientists. They, too, believe sociability is the key to how the
human mind functions or, perhaps more pertinently, malfunctions.
...Sloman and Fernbach see this effect, which they call the
"illusion of explanatory depth," just about everywhere..
If your position on, say, the Affordable Care Act is baseless and
I rely on it, then my opinion is also baseless. When I talk to Tom
and he decides he agrees with me, his opinion is also baseless, but
now that the three of us concur we feel that much more smug about
our views. If we all now dismiss as unconvincing any information
that contradicts our opinion, you get, well, the Trump Administration...
... they, too, dedicate many pages to confirmation bias, which,
they claim, has a physiological component. They cite research
suggesting that people experience genuine pleasure - a rush of
dopamine - when processing information that supports their beliefs.
"It feels good to 'stick to our guns' even if we are wrong," they
observe...
These days, it can feel as if the entire country has been given
over to a vast psychological experiment being run either by no one
or by Steve Bannon. Rational agents would be able to think their way
to a solution. But, on this matter, the literature is not reassuring.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ucsd-20170311-story.html
UCSD scientists worry Trump could suppress *climate change*data
<http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ucsd-20170311-story.html>
Los Angeles Times -10 hours ago
UC San Diego may accelerate plans to preserve its climate data due
to growing concerns among faculty members that the Trump
administration could interfere with their work...
UC San Diego, one of the nation's 10 largest research universities,
sharpened its focus on climate data 18 months ago after learning
that the federal government is trimming support for archiving such
information...
But the apprehension about Trump's views on climate change have
given a sense of urgency to that project, said those involved with
the undertaking...
"It is a reaction to the concerns of the scholarly community and the
scientific research community about the effect that the new
presidency has vis-à-vis climate change, vis-à-vis any other of a
number of things," said Brian Schottlaender, the university's head
librarian. "The stakes are up. The stakes are high. There's more at
risk now."
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a53805/climate-skeptics-trump-administration/
It's the Golden Age of*Climate*Denial
<http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a53805/climate-skeptics-trump-administration/>
Esquire.com -8 hours ago
In Trump's America, more CO2 in the atmosphere is actually good.
In fact, it does not contradict the scientific consensus on climate
change, which holds that higher carbon dioxide levels lead to warmer
temperatures and, in turn, among other things, to melting sea ice
and rising sea levels...
Of course, some of the largest multinational corporations in the
history of the world have spent decades disputing the effects of
carbon dioxide production to protect vested interests. ExxonMobil,
for instance, first became aware of the threat in 1981, but spent 27
years funding denial of it. That climate science is the real big
business, crushing the little guy whose work just happens to help
the fossil fuel industry, is the kind of delusion that pervaded the
seminars at CPAC, and that infects this movement generally...
In our conversations, both Happer and Morano said Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson, who left his post as CEO of ExxonMobil to take the
job, could be the biggest obstacle to their agenda in the White
House. (That ExxonMobil has donated over half a million dollars to
Morano's organization over the years doesn't seem to complicate
things for him. Happer, whose organizations have also received
funding from large fossil fuel companies and prominent conservative
donor networks like the Bradley Foundation, described a "David and
Goliath" scenario where the Sierra Club is Goliath.) Happer also
identified ExxonMobil as an enemy of his movement. If you're keeping
score at home, the former CEO of the world's fourth largest oil and
gas corporation is now, in the estimation of some skeptics, the most
prominent advocate for combatting climate change in the executive
branch...
Morano wants the president to "unleash" fracking, oil drilling, and
coal production, the latter of which he somewhat agreed was no
longer even competitive due to the rise of cheap natural
gas...Strange: a climate skeptic who isn't just interested in
disputing the science, but who also openly advocates for more
expansive use of fossil fuels, including economically inefficient
ones. It's almost like these things are connected.
//https://soundcloud.com/smerconishshow/dr-michael-mann-the-hockey////
/*(audio) This Day in Climate History March 13, 2012
<March%2013,%202012:%20Climate%20scientist%20Michael%20Mann%20discusses%20his%20book%20%22The%20Hockey%20Stick%20and%20the%20Climate%20Wars%22%20with%20nationally%20syndicated%20talk%20radio%20host%20Michael%20Smerconish.,,https://soundcloud.com/smerconishshow/dr-michael-mann-the-hockey>
- from D.R. Tucker*
/Climate scientist Michael Mann discusses his book "The Hockey Stick and
the Climate Wars" with nationally syndicated talk radio host Michael
Smerconish./(15 minutes)
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