[TheClimate.Vote] March 15, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News for All - Gallop Poll, military, investors, anxiety
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Mar 15 09:15:41 EDT 2017
/March 15, 2017 Climate Gallop Poll, military, investors, & anxiety/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/206030/global-warming-concern-three-decade-high.aspx
*Gallop Poll -- Global Warming Concern at Three-Decade High in US
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/206030/global-warming-concern-three-decade-high.aspx>*
- Americans worrying a great deal up eight percentage points to 45%
- New high of 62% says effects of global warming are happening now
- Belief that global warming poses a serious threat stretches to 42%
Record percentages of Americans are concerned about global warming,
believe it is occurring, consider it a serious threat and say it is
caused by human activity. All of these perceptions are up
significantly from 2015.
Forty-five percent of Americans now say they worry "a great deal"
about global warming, up from 37% a year ago and well above the
recent low point of 25% in 2011. The previous high was 41%, recorded
in 2007. Another 21% currently say they worry "a fair amount" about
global warming, while 18% worry "only a little" and 16% worry "not
at all."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/trump-said-to-drop-climate-change-from-environmental-reviews
Trump to Drop*Climate Change*From Environmental Reviews, Source Says
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/trump-said-to-drop-climate-change-from-environmental-reviews>
Bloomberg -4 hours ago
President Donald Trump is set to sign a sweeping directive to
dramatically shrink the role climate change plays in decisions
across the government, ranging from appliance standards to pipeline
approvals, according to a person familiar with the ..
The order, which could be signed this week, goes far beyond a
targeted assault on Obama-era measures blocking coal leasing and
throttling greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that has been
discussed for weeks. Some of the changes could happen immediately;
others could take years to implement...
It aims to reverse President Barack Obama's broad approach for
addressing climate change. One Obama-era policy instructed
government agencies to factor climate change into formal
environmental reviews, such as that for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Trump's order also will compel a reconsideration of the government's
use of a metric known as the "social cost of carbon" that reflects
the potential economic damage from climate change. It was used by
the Obama administration to justify a suite of regulations.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-rex-tillerson-exxon-email-alias-20170314-story.html
At Exxon, Rex Tillerson reportedly used alias for emails
about*climate change*
<http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-rex-tillerson-exxon-email-alias-20170314-story.html>
Los Angeles Times -5 hours ago
The New York attorney general says that while Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson was chief executive of Exxon Mobil he used an alias in
emails to talk about*climate change*. The attorney general, Eric
Schneiderman, made the accusation in a letter to a New ...
http://priceofoil.org/2017/03/13/forecasting-failure-report/
*Forecasting Failure: Why Investors Should Treat Oil Company Energy
Forecasts With Caution
<http://priceofoil.org/2017/03/13/forecasting-failure-report/>*
Greg Muttitt, Oil Change International, Greenpeace
March 2017 Download Report
<http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/03/forecasting-failure.pdf>Forecasting
Failure
Companies like ExxonMobil, Shell and BP routinely use their in-house
energy forecasts to justify investments in multi-decade, high-cost
projects, from the Arctic to the tar sands. While the companies
present their published forecasts as objective analyses, the
forecasts rather reflect the future they want us to believe in.
This report:
- reveals the poor track record of oil company forecasting;
- exposes the unlikely assumptions built into the forecasts; and
- examines the consequences of these forecasts for investments and
for climate change.
- It finds that the companies are highly vulnerable to disruption by
clean energy technologies, and that their forecasts are playing an
unhelpful role in the climate debate.
The report includes a comparative analysis of the oil majors'
current approaches to thinking about energy futures, and
recommendations for more robust ways to think about the future of
energy, echoing the recent Task Force on Climate-Related Financial
Disclosures.
https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-defense-secretary-cites-climate-change-national-security-challenge
*Trump's Defense Secretary Cites Climate Change as National Security
Challenge
<https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-defense-secretary-cites-climate-change-national-security-challenge>*
James Mattis' unpublished testimony before a Senate panel recognizes
a threat others in the administration reject or minimize.
byAndrew Revkin <http://www.propublica.org/site/author/andrew_revkin/>
ProPublica, March 14, 2017, 11:17 a.m.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis has asserted that climate change
is real, and a threat to American interests abroad and the
Pentagon's assets everywhere, a position that appears at odds with
the views of the president who appointed him and many in the
administration in which he serves.
... Mattis said it was incumbent on the U.S. military to consider
how changes like open-water routes in the thawing Arctic and drought
in global trouble spots can pose challenges for troops and defense
planners. He also stressed this is a real-time issue, not some
distant what-if.
"Climate change is impacting stability in areas of the world where
our troops are operating today," Mattis said in written answers to
questions posed after the public hearing by Democratic members of
the committee. "It is appropriate for the Combatant Commands to
incorporate drivers of instability that impact the security
environment in their areas into their planning."
Mattis' statements could hearten world leaders who have urged the
Trump administration to remain engaged on addressing global warming.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to meet Trump on Friday.
Security questions related to rising seas and changing weather
patterns in global trouble spots like the Middle East and
sub-Saharan Africa are one reason that global warming has become a
focus in international diplomatic forums. On March 10, the United
Nations Security Council was warned of imminent risk of famine in
Yemen, Somalia and South Sudan.
Mattis: "Climate change can be a driver of instability and the
Department of Defense must pay attention to potential adverse
impacts generated by this phenomenon."
Shaheen: "General Mattis, how should the military prepare to address
this threat?"
Mattis: "As I noted above, climate change is a challenge that
requires a broader, whole-of government response. If confirmed, I
will ensure that the Department of Defense plays its appropriate
role within such a response by addressing national security aspects."
In a reply to another question, Mattis said:
"I agree that the effects of a changing climate -- such as increased
maritime access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification,
among others — impact our security situation. I will ensure that the
department continues to be prepared to conduct operations today and
in the future, and that we are prepared to address the effects of a
changing climate on our threat assessments, resources, and readiness."
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en
*The Independent Barents Observer <https://thebarentsobserver.com/en>*
The Independent Barents Observer is a journalistic product following
the principles of the Norwegian Rights and Duties of the Editor.
Our core values are freedom of speech and support for democracy. By
providing impartial information and opinions across the borders of
the Arctic and the Barents Region, we serve local societies, support
regional development and promote international cooperation.
The Independent Barents Observer is a non-profit stock company fully
own by the reporters. No regional or national authority have owner
interests in the company, nor influence on the newsmaking. The
newsdesk is located in Kirkenes, the Norwegian Arctic town located
just few kilometres from the borders to Russia and Finland.
The Independent Barents Observer publishes in English and Russian.
*Recent stories on Arctic military buildup:*
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/03/larger-portion-russias-nukes-will-be-subs
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/03/30-years-old-submarine-ready-re-launch
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/03/nuclear-subs-played-cat-and-mouse-game-barents-sea
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2016/11/shipyard-reveals-unique-video-spy-submarine
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2016/10/deep-sea-sub-carrier-test-voyage-white-sea
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2016/12/did-russia-test-doomsday-weapon-arctic-waters
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/02/russia-details-barents-military-plane-spotting
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/arctic-melt-northern-trade-global-warming
*Arctic melt boosts northern trade routes, hurts Singapore and Suez
<https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/arctic-melt-northern-trade-global-warming>*
Melting ice caps will not only impact our coastlines, but may
radically alter international trade, a new study finds.
An academic study worth reading: "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic
Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route,
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecoj.12460/full>" in The
Economic Journal, 2017.
Study summary: Using the latest climate research, Eddy Bekkers of
the University of Bern and his colleagues predict that by 2030, if
not sooner, enough Arctic ice will have melted to put the Northern
Sea Route (NSR) into use year-round. After calibrating baseline
predictions for global output and trade in 2030, they estimate the
economic impacts of this shock to global transportation.
The paper predicts:
* The NSR will save between 20 and 30 percent on transport costs
between East Asia (China, Japan and South Korea) and northern
Europe (Germany, France, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom).
* Trade between East Asia and the European Union will increase
around 7 percent.
* The NSR will absorb about 4.7 percent of global shipping; for
example, 13.4 percent of all Chinese trade will use the route.
* About 10,000 ships will cross the Arctic each year.
* Trade in the Suez Canal will drop around two-thirds.
* Expect "tremendous pressure on the facilities and economies
servicing" the southern route, including Egypt and Singapore.
* There will be less trade between northern and southern Europe.
* There will be an increase in exports from northern Europe to
East Asia.
* Countries that benefit economically – for example in northern
Europe and East Asia – can expect increases in real incomes;
southern European countries will experience real income declines
as their exports decrease.
* The authors do not expect any major labor shocks since the
changes will occur gradually.
* Though CO2 emissions will decline as ships spend fewer days at
sea, these gains will be offset by the increased quantities of
trade between Europe and Asia and the subsequent increased
production in Asia to meet that demand.
* Overall, when all changes are factored in, global emissions
should rise by about 0.07 percent (or about the same amount as
Latvia or Lithuania produces annually).
* These figures change little if the baseline year is moved to
2020 or to 2040.
http://www.channel3000.com/health/depression-anxiety-ptsd-the-mental-impact-of-climate-change/394985003
Depression, anxiety, PTSD: The mental impact of*climate change*
<http://www.channel3000.com/health/depression-anxiety-ptsd-the-mental-impact-of-climate-change/394985003>
Channel3000.com - WISC-TV3 -8 hours ago
Many populations face threat of forced migrations
With floods -- as well as storms, heat waves and droughts --
expected to increase in frequency thanks to climate change, the
impact such trauma may have on the minds of those affected is
something doctors, policymakers and governments are considering when
planning services to help populations at-risk.
"One of the major health effects of flooding seems to be the mental
health aspects," said James Rubin, a psychologist at Kings College
London whose recent research looked into the psychological impact of
people both directly and indirectly effected by floods. "There are a
whole host of stressors around it,"
These types of natural disasters are expected to rise in frequency
due to climate change, and Rubin feels that the mental health aspect
deserves more attention...
"Preventing (climate change) from happening, from worsening and
intervening is really important,"
Climate change is predicted to bring more than just floods: There
could be heat waves, sea level rises causing loss of land, and
forced migration and droughts affecting agriculture and the farmers
producing it. And with these concerns comes a plethora of issues
plaguing the human mind, such as depression, worry, anxiety,
substance abuse, aggression and even suicide among those who cannot
cope....
Among direct flood victims, 20% had been diagnosed with depression,
28.3% with anxiety and 36% with post-traumatic stress disorder.
Among those disrupted (meaning their area was flooded but not their
home), the team found almost 10% to have depression and 15% with
PTSD. Those unaffected showed just 6% depression and 8% PTSD.
Clayton believes that when dealing the mental health aspects,
climate change can be broken down into three main categories:
natural disasters such as floods and storms, slower changes such as
an increasing global temperature, and the loss of social networks or
social capital...
With the slower changes come consequences such as aggression and
violent behavior associated with higher temperatures, isolation and
depression linked to forced migration and landscape changes, and the
overall impact of stress...
In terms of higher temperatures, "research suggests we are less
tolerant of other people," Clayton said. "Migration is associated
with all sorts of problems ... and much higher levels of mental
health issues.".
http://www.normantranscript.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editor/time-for-global-warming-skepticism-has-passed/article_4f2a2286-c56d-5bda-9983-97324d91cc1a.html
Time for*global warming* skepticism has passed
<http://www.normantranscript.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editor/time-for-global-warming-skepticism-has-passed/article_4f2a2286-c56d-5bda-9983-97324d91cc1a.html>
Norman Transcript -10 hours ago
There was indeed a time when it was possible for a fair-minded
skeptic to doubt whether cigarettes increased the risk of lung
cancer. But, with smoking as with climate change, the time for
cautious skepticism is long past and the time to accept the
overwhelming evidence is here. The good news is that more people are
seeing past the obfuscations of people like Pruitt.
https://thinkprogress.org/mustafa-ali-environmental-justice-epa-trump-3d4cf00f558a#.ssomtvz78
*EPA environmental justice leader on his resignation: 'I needed to stand
up'
<https://thinkprogress.org/mustafa-ali-environmental-justice-epa-trump-3d4cf00f558a#.ssomtvz78>*
Mustafa Ali has been with the EPA since 1992. He told ThinkProgress
that he "saw something that was significantly different" with the
Trump administration.
On March 8, Mustafa Ali, head of the environmental justice program
at the Environmental Protection Agency, sent a letter to his new
boss, Administrator Scott Pruitt, informing him that he would be
leaving the agency, effective immediately.
Ali's resignation came amid rumors that the Trump administration may
seek to cut as much as a quarter from the EPA's budget — cuts that
would include the Office of Environmental Justice, where Ali worked
since 1992, when he helped found the environmental justice program
under President George H.W. Bush.
In his three-page resignation letter, Ali urged Pruitt to support
critical programs meant to help the country's most vulnerable
populations — low-income communities, communities of color, and
indigenous communities — gain equitable access to clean air, clean
water, and unspoiled land.
I'd like to start by talking about your resignation letter.
<https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3514958-Final-Resignation-Letter-for-Administrator.html>
*Final Resignation Letter for Administrator Pruitt ICN
<https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3514958-Final-Resignation-Letter-for-Administrator.html>*
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3514958-Final-Resignation-Letter-for-Administrator.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf
*This Day in Climate History March 15, 1999
<http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf>
- from D.R. Tucker*
The paper *"Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past**
**Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations," by
Michael E. Mann*, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, is
published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The paper
features the "hockey stick" graph that makes Mann a target of
unrelenting rhetorical and legal assaults by supporters and
representatives of the fossil fuel industry.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf
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