[TheClimate.Vote] November 3, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/November 3, 2017/*
**
Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis' 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis>*
Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, 
and call for a new legal framework to protect the most vulnerable.
Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate 
change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world 
has ever seen, according to a new report.
Senior US military and security experts have told the Environmental 
Justice Foundation (EJF) study that the number of climate refugees will 
dwarf those that have fled the Syrian conflict, bringing huge challenges 
to Europe.
"If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 
years," said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. 
"See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa - the 
Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially - and we're talking now not just one 
or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south 
Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean."...
Although the report highlights to growing impact of climate change on 
people in the Middle East and Africa, it says changing weather patterns 
- like the hurricanes that devastated parts of the US this year - prove 
richer nations are not immune from climate change.
But Trent said that although climate change undoubtedly posed an 
"existential threat to our world" it was not to late to take decisive 
action.
  "By taking strong ambitious steps now to phase out greenhouse gas 
emissions and building an international legal mechanism to protect 
climate refugees we will protect the poorest and most vulnerable in our 
global society, build resilience, reap massive economic benefits and 
build a safe and secure future for our planet. Climate change will not 
wait. Neither can we. For climate refugees, tomorrow is too late."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis
-
*Uprooted by Climate Change: Responding to the growing risk of 
displacement 
<https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/uprooted-by-climate-change-responding-to-the-growing-risk-of-displacement/>*
Climate change is already forcing people from their land and homes, and 
putting many more at risk of displacement in the future.
Supercharged storms, more intense droughts, rising seas and other 
impacts of climate change all magnify existing vulnerabilities and the 
likelihood of displacement, disproportionately affecting low-income 
countries, women, children and indigenous peoples. Responding to these 
growing realities demands far stronger action towards ending global 
climate pollution, supporting resilient communities, ensuring rights for 
people on the move and developing long-term strategies to ensure that 
those who are forced to move in the future are able to do so safely and 
with dignity.
Publication date  November 2, 2017
Download Uprooted by Climate Change: Responding to the growing risk of 
displacement 
<https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/bp-uprooted-by-climate-change-031117-en.pdf> 

https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/bp-uprooted-by-climate-change-031117-en.pdf
https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/uprooted-by-climate-change-responding-to-the-growing-risk-of-displacement/


*Quarter of Oil Refineries Risk Closure Under Climate Goals-Report 
<https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/11/01/business/01reuters-climatechange-refining.html?_r=0>*
By REUTERS   NOV. 1, 2017
LONDON - A quarter of the world's oil refineries risk closure by 2035 if 
governments meet targets to limit fossil fuel burning in the fight 
against global warming, a report released on Thursday said.
A surge in electric vehicle sales and higher efficiency in internal 
combustion and jet engines are expected to slow demand growth for fuels 
such as gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in the coming decades, 
potentially putting pressure on refining profits.
At the same time, governments around the world are set to introduce 
legislation in the coming years to limit emissions of heat-capturing 
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in order to meet targets set at a 
U.N-backed Paris conference in 2015.
As a result, companies such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, France' Total 
and China's largest refiner Sinopec could see profits from refining drop 
by 70 percent or more over the period, according to the report 
co-authored by environment thinktank Carbon Tracker, Swedish investment 
fund AP7 and Danish pension fund PKA.
The study is based on the International Energy Agency's 450 Scenario to 
limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius under which oil demand 
declines by 23 percent between 2020 and 2035.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/11/01/business/01reuters-climatechange-refining.html?_r=0


Carbon Tracker Reports:
*Margin call: Refining Capacity in a 2 degrees C world 
<https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/margin-call-refining-capacity-2-degree-world/>*
What does a 2 degrees C scenario mean for future refining capacity?
In this paper, we look at how a scenario for oil demand that is 
compliant with limiting the rise in global warming by 2035 to 2 degrees 
C (a "2D" scenario) might affect the oil industry's refining assets. The 
IEA's 450 Scenario is used as the basis of 2D demand, under which oil 
demand peaks in 2020 and declines at 1.3% p.a. thereafter. This follows 
on from our recent analysis '2 Degrees of Separation' which focused on 
the upstream activities of the sector.
At the simplest level:
*lower oil volume = less refining capacity = smaller margins**
**Less volume = fewer refineries needed*
Under a 2D scenario, global oil demand could decline by 23% over a 15 
year period. Historically, falling or weak demand has often been 
accompanied by weak refining margins. With demand falling, refinery 
output would need to fall commensurately. Market forces would drive 
margins down in order to force the least competitive refiners out of the 
market. Accordingly, under a 2D scenario, the industry is likely to see 
major rationalisation with many players exiting the market rather than 
haemorrhaging cash. Our analysis implies rationalisation equivalent to 
25% of 2016 capacity.
*Margins suffer across the board*
To drive this rationalisation, we estimate that a sustained refinery 
margin contraction of the order of $3.50/barrel by 2035 would be 
necessary. This compares to a global composite margin in 2016 of 
$5.00/bbl. We consider this estimate to be conservative. For example, 
BP's history of global refining margins since 1990 shows an annual 
standard deviation of nearly $5/barrel. Past periods of weak demand have 
led to higher declines in margins. For example, in 2008 US demand fell 
by 5%: BP's US indicator margin fell by over $6/barrel. [1]
*Earnings fall*
The combination of reduced refining throughputs and the consequent fall 
in margins could have profound implications for the industry. We 
estimate that EBITDA for the refineries we have analysed (94% of 2015 
global capacity) could fall by over 50% by 2035 from an estimated $147bn 
in 2015. There is likely to be a fall in valuations of refinery assets 
of a similar order although the impact will be disproportionate. Complex 
refineries, which tend to have higher margins, are likely to suffer 
least; simple, low quality assets could become worthless.
*Transport fuel most profitable but most at risk*
Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel products offer the highest margins across 
the product mix from refineries, and they also constitute around 70% of 
global product yield. As covered in our previous research 'Expect the 
unexpected' the rate of technological change in road transport may 
surprise the industry and erode demand for these fuels faster than 
currently anticipated.
*OECD capacity hit hardest*
Under a 2D scenario the existing refinery stock is already sufficient to 
meet future demand; no new refinery capacity needs to be added globally. 
However, differences in regional demand trends may mean that new 
capacity is needed in areas such as the Middle East and Asia. Some 
countries may add new unprofitable capacity for strategic reasons such 
as security of supply. As a result, mature regions, predominantly within 
the OECD, are likely to need larger cuts than the global demand trend 
might imply. Were this to occur, the eventual reduction in capacity 
needed to balance the market would be that much greater. In such a 
market, refining margins would most likely be lower than would be the 
case in a rational market....
https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/margin-call-refining-capacity-2-degree-world/


*Trump campaign aide Clovis withdraws from consideration for USDA job 
<https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-campaign-aide-clovis-withdraws-from-consideration-for-usda-job-244458>*
Former Trump campaign aide Sam Clovis has withdrawn from consideration 
to be the Department of Agriculture's chief scientist, according to a 
letter Clovis sent on Wednesday to President Donald Trump.
Clovis has come under criticism recently for his lack of science 
credentials and for his role supervising George Papadopoulos, a Trump 
campaign foreign policy adviser who struck a plea deal on charges he 
lied to FBI investigators about his communications with Russia-linked 
contacts.
"The political climate inside Washington has made it impossible for me 
to receive balanced and fair consideration for this position," Clovis 
wrote. "The relentless assaults on you and your team seem to be a blood 
sport that only increases in intensity each day."
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-campaign-aide-clovis-withdraws-from-consideration-for-usda-job-244458

*
****Sustainable finance: Can socially responsible investing mitigate 
climate change? 
<https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/sustainable-finance-can-socially-responsible-investing-mitigate-climate-change>*
...Climate change may ultimately be a crisis of the capitalist system. 
The naturally omnipotent financial structures that have, without grace, 
risen to the top of such a system have been fuelled by one source: 
investment. But as far as the crisis of climate goes, we are in too deep 
and we have not enough time to shift our political or financial 
paradigm. If we are to pivot on our path in time to make a real 
difference, great and global in scale, we must harness the forces that 
drive our markets today. In this, socially responsible investment 
practices are a crucial tool in bringing our financial system in line 
with our own social goals. Together, allocation of capital and changing 
public attitude could be highly influential in our fight to mitigate 
climate change....
More recently, socially responsible investing, known as SRI, has taken a 
strong hold. At COP21 auxiliary events, the number of investment firms 
advocating this strategy, and those encompassed by the term under 
different names - such as green or sustainable investment - astonished 
me: socially responsible investment is growing and here to stay..
The power of SRI lies in the way it combines disinvestment (divestment) 
with the next, crucial step: reinvestment. Managers are not sending 
money directly to companies when they buy up shares (unless it is an 
initial public offering (IPO)). ...
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/sustainable-finance-can-socially-responsible-investing-mitigate-climate-change


*The Climate Post: Ahead of Bonn Talks, Study Says Paris Agreement May 
Fall Short 
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-climate-post-ahead-of-bonn-talks-study-says-paris_us_59fb7782e4b01ec0dede4092>*
As the United Nations prepares to welcome delegates from across the 
world to Bonn, Germany, on Monday for the annual Conference of Parties 
meeting (COP23), the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) has released its 
yearly "Emissions Gap" report indicating a disparity between the world's 
stated ambitions on climate in the Paris Agreement and what actions are 
actually needed.
The report indicates the present national pledges under the agreement 
are only one third of the reduction in emissions required by 2030 to 
meet targets, which aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees 
Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit that 
increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The pledges by countries, it says, 
would lead to temperature rises of as much as 3 degrees Celsius or more 
by the end of this century, but it would make the chance of getting to 4 
degrees Celsius or more of warming considerably smaller.
Although the gap between commitments could be large, the report suggests 
that it is still possible to close it in a cost-effective way. A large 
portion of reductions come from six specific efforts: solar energy; wind 
energy; efficient appliances; efficient passenger cars; aforestation; 
and stopping deforestation.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-climate-post-ahead-of-bonn-talks-study-says-paris_us_59fb7782e4b01ec0dede4092


*Degrowth as an Aesthetics of Existence: Part 2 
<http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-02/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-2/>*
By Samuel Alexander on Nov 02, 2017 03:09 am
If it turns out, however, that neither art nor science can provoke the 
transformations needed to avoid the looming apocalypse, then the role of 
the artist will only magnify further, as creative imaginations are 
tasked with interpreting and understanding civilizational descent in 
terms that give meaning to the inevitability of suffering; give sense to 
the pain we will feel (perhaps are already feeling) as global capitalism 
dies its inevitable death...
Ed note: this is Part 2 of the Introduction to Samuel Alexanders' new 
book /Art Against Empire: Toward an Aesthetics of Degrowth 
<https://www.amazon.com/dp/0994160690/ref=cm_sw_su_dp>. Part 1 of the 
essay can be found on Resilience.orghere 
<http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-01/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-1/>. 
This essay was also published as a Melbourne Sustainable Society 
monograph in .pdf formathere 
<http://d2hqr0jocqnenz.cloudfront.net/cdn/farfuture/utNz-IulFkNTwW6i5TBfnJxYCejyn0Teo_SnIpRxUmM/mtime:1508818942/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-Monograph-Aesthetics_of_Existence_2017.pdf>./
...If it turns out, however, that neither art nor science can provoke 
the transformations needed to avoid the looming apocalypse, then the 
role of the artist will only magnify further, as creative imaginations 
are tasked with interpreting and understanding civilizational descent in 
terms that give meaning to the inevitability of suffering; give sense to 
the pain we will feel (perhaps are already feeling) as global capitalism 
dies its inevitable death. At that stage, the therapeutic or even 
spiritual role of art will take precedence over its political function, 
a transition anticipated already by the Dark Mountain (2017) movement. 
The very term 'apocalypse' has a dual meaning, not simply referring to 
the 'end of the world' but also signifying 'a great unveiling or 
disclosure' of knowledge. It will be the artist, not the scientist, I 
contend, who will contribute most to the human understanding of such a 
disclosure when, or if, it arrives. Rather than wallow helplessly as 
civilisation descends into barbarism, let us hope that our artists, 
novelists, poets, and filmmakers, are up to the task of weaving 
narratives of human and ecological suffering into a meaningful web of 
solidarity and compassion-and thereby, perhaps, give birth to a new 
golden age of Grecian tragedy that offers both an education and 
cleansing of the emotions and passions in these turbulent times 
(Aristotle 1997).
Perhaps that is the new dawn that lies beyond this dark hour.
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-02/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-2/


*This Day in Climate History November 3, 2012 
<http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/11/chris-hayes-whats-at-stake-with-climate.html>  
-  from D.R. Tucker*
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/03/opinion/safina-sandy-said-the-words/?c=&page=0
On MSNBC's "Up," Chris Hayes lays out the moral case for action on
climate change.
Carbon emissions are trapping extra energy in our atmosphere, and with 
extra energy come more extremes: higher sea levels, dryer droughts, 
hotter heat waves, and heavier, wetter storms.
We need a crash program in this country right now to re-engineer the 
nation's infrastructure to cope with and prepare for the climate 
disruptions that we have already ensured with the carbon we've already 
put into the atmosphere, as well as an immediate, aggressive 
transformation of our energy production, economy and society to reduce 
the amount of carbon we'll put into the atmosphere in the future.
This is as fundamental, as elemental as human endeavors get. The story 
of civilization is the long tale of crusaders for order battling the 
unceasing reality of chaos. And it is a kind of miracle that we have 
succeeded as much as we have, that airplanes fly through the air, and 
roads plunge beneath the water and the entire teeming latticework of 
human life exists in the manifold improbable places it does. But it is 
the grand irony that in imposing this improbable order on the world, 
we've released millions of years of stored up carbon into the 
atmosphere, which is now altering the climate and threatening the very 
monuments of civilization that we so cherish.
We absolutely have it within us, collectively, to beat back the forces 
of chaos once again. But we must choose to do so. And the time for 
choosing is now. You are either on the side of your fellow citizens and 
residents of this planet, or you are on the side of the storms as yet 
unnamed.
You cannot be neutral.
Which side are you on?
http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/03/whats-at-stake-with-climate-change/
http://video.msnbc.msn.com/up/49672392#49672392
http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/11/chris-hayes-whats-at-stake-with-climate.html
/
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