[TheClimate.Vote] November 6, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Nov 6 11:30:49 EST 2017
/November 6, 2017
/ *
Social Media for UN Climate Change Conference - November 2017
<https://cop23.unfccc.int/cop23/social-media>*
Along with live webcast, social media community tools such as Facebook,
Twitter, YouTube and Flickr enable virtual participation in the UN
Climate Change Conference in Bonn (COP23). See the full list of our
social media accounts below, and those of the Fijian COP23 Presidency.
Information on which sessions will be webcast live each day will be made
available in the daily programme, and on the main meetings page
<http://unfccc.int/meetings/bonn_nov_2017/meeting/10084.php> and also on
the webcast interface that will be made available closer to the conference.
The main Twitter hashtag for the event is #COP23.
Apps, Platforms and Accounts
A UNFCCC Negotiator app collects all the information in one place,
including social media and webcast.
App for Iphone/Ipad <http://unfccc.int/iphoneapp>
App for Android <http://unfccc.int/androidapp>
https://cop23.unfccc.int/cop23/social-media
YouTube channel Climateconference
<https://www.youtube.com/user/climateconference/featured>
https://www.youtube.com/user/climateconference/featured
*Climate Science Special Report <https://science2017.globalchange.gov/>*
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I
This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate
change, with a focus on the United States. It represents the first of
two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the
Global Change Research Act of 1990.
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.
*Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Climate Science Special Report
<https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/>*
/Executive Summary/
The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing
global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and
projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.
Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about
1.8degreesF (1.0 degrees C) over the last 115 years (1901-2016).*This
period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization.*The
last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather
extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record
for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate
timescales.
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is
extremely likely that*human activities, especially emissions of
greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since
the mid-20th century*. For the warming over the last century, there is
no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the
observational evidence.
In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are
changing, primarily in response to human activities.*Thousands of
studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented
changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting
glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea
levels;ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor*.
For example,*global average sea level has risen by about 7-8
inches*since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise
occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial
contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise
that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800
years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States;*the
incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25
Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities*.
*Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise - by at
least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1- 4 feet by 2100. A
rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out*. Sea level rise
will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of
the United States.
Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly
important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality
and quantity, and natural ecosystems.*Heavy rainfall is increasing in
intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is
expected to continue to increase*. The largest observed changes in the
United States have occurred in the Northeast.
*Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the
1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less
frequent*. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to become
common in the near future for the United States, as annual average
temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the
contiguous United States has increased by 1.8 degrees F (1.0 degrees C)
for the period 1901-2016;*over the next few decades (2021-2050), annual
average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5 degrees F for the
United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976-2005),
under all plausible future climatescenarios.*
*The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and
Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further
increase*in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes
to regional ecosystems.
*Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are
already affecting water resources in the western United States*and these
trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no
change to current water resources management,*chronic,
long-durationhydrological droughtis increasingly possible before the end
of this century*.
*The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend
primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide)
emitted globally*. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase
in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times
could reach 9degreesF (5 degrees C) or more by the end of this
century.*With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in
annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6 degrees F
(2**degrees C**) or less.*
*The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now
passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3
million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level
were significantly higher than today*. Continued growth in CO_2
emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric
concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years.
There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth
system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated
changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large andirreversible.
The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15-20 years has
been consistent with higher emissions pathways.*In 2014 and 2015,
emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less
carbon-intensive*. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is
not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to
well below 3.6degreesF (2 degrees C) above preindustrial levels...
This Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to capture that
new information and build on the existing body of science in order to
summarize the current state of knowledge and provide the scientific
foundation for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4).
Since NCA3, stronger evidence has emerged for continuing, rapid,
human-caused warming of the global atmosphere and ocean. This report
concludes that "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For
the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative
explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence."...
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/
*
Anti-coal protesters march in Germany before climate meet
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/anti-coal-protesters-march-germany-climate-meet-50941874>
*More than 2,500 anti-coal demonstrators protested in the western German
town of Kerpen and at a nearby surface-mining site before an upcoming
global climate conference in Bonn.
The dpa news agency reported Sunday that a large group of the initial
protesters split off to march on the mining site behind a banner reading
"We Are Nature Defending Itself."
Riot police scuffled with some of the demonstrators but there were no
major incidents reported.
German leader Angela Merkel has been dubbed the "Climate Chancellor" for
her ambitious targets for renewable energy, but Germany still gets about
40 percent of its electricity from coal-fired plants.
Before the 2017 U.N. Climate Conference that begins Monday, many
protesters have been urging her to move faster to wean the country off coal.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/anti-coal-protesters-march-germany-climate-meet-50941874*
The world shrugs at Trump as global climate meeting begins in Bonn
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-world-shrugs-at-trump-as-global-climate-meeting-begins-in-bonn/2017/11/03/fd2029d6-bf4d-11e7-8444-a0d4f04b89eb_story.html?utm_term=.535a7faafda3>
*As delegates gather Monday in Bonn, Germany, for this year's annual
international climate talks, the United States finds itself largely on
the sidelines. And the rest of the world seems to be reacting to the
Trump administration with a collective shrug.*
*https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-world-shrugs-at-trump-as-global-climate-meeting-begins-in-bonn/2017/11/03/fd2029d6-bf4d-11e7-8444-a0d4f04b89eb_story.html?utm_term=.535a7faafda3*
*-
*Climate meetings pose serious test in the Trump era
<https://www.nature.com/news/climate-meetings-pose-serious-test-in-the-trump-era-1.22795>*
Even so, the rest of the world has pledged to stand firm. The first
conference of the parties to the agreement in the Trump era must now
work out how to proceed without the world's largest economy. In theory,
the annual climate roller coaster is idling through one of the low-key
phases in which success is measured by nothing going wrong. In practice,
the Bonn meeting will serve as a litmus test of how the rest of the
world plans to stand united and to keep the spirit of Paris alive.
https://www.nature.com/news/climate-meetings-pose-serious-test-in-the-trump-era-1.22795
*Donald Trump accused of obstructing satellite research into climate
change
<https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/nov/05/donald-trump-accused-blocking-satellite-climate-change-research>*
Robin McKie Observer science editor
President Trump has been accused of deliberately obstructing research on
global warming after it emerged that a critically important technique
for investigating sea-ice cover at the poles faces being blocked.
The row has erupted after a key polar satellite broke down a few days
ago, leaving the US with only three ageing ones, each operating long
past their shelf lives, to measure the Arctic's dwindling ice cap.
Scientists say there is no chance a new one can now be launched until
2023 or later. None of the current satellites will still be in operation
then.
The crisis has been worsened because the US Congress this year insisted
that a backup sea-ice probe had to be dismantled because it did not want
to provide funds to keep it in storage. Congress is currently under the
control of Republicans, who are antagonistic to climate science and the
study of global warming.
"This is like throwing away the medical records of a sick patient," said
David Gallaher of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder,
Colorado. "Our world is ailing and we have apparently decided to
undermine, quite deliberately, the effectiveness of the records on which
its recovery might be based. It is criminal."
The threat to the US sea-ice monitoring programme - which supplies data
to scientists around the world - will trigger further accusations at
this week's international climate talks in Bonn that the Trump
administration is trying to block studies of global warming for
ideological reasons.
Earth's sea ice has shrunk dramatically - particularly in the Arctic -
in recent years as rising emissions of greenhouse gases have warmed the
planet. Satellites have been vital in assessing this loss, thanks mainly
to America's Defence Meteorological Satellite Programme (DMSP), which
has overseen the construction of eight F-series satellites that use
microwaves sensors to monitor sea-ice coverage. These probes, which have
lifespans of three to five years, have shown that millions of square
kilometres of sea ice have disappeared from the Arctic over the past 20
years, allowing less solar energy to be reflected back into space - and
so further increasing global temperatures - while also disrupting Inuit
life and wildlife in the region.
At present three ageing satellites - DMSP F16, F17 and F18 - remain in
operation, though they are all beginning to drift out of their orbits
over the poles. The latest satellite in the series, F19, began to suffer
sensor malfunctions last year and finally broke down a few weeks ago. It
should have been replaced with the F20 probe, which had already been
built and was being kept in storage by the US Air Force. However it had
to be destroyed, on the orders of the US Congress, on the grounds that
its storage was too costly.
Many scientists say this decision was made for purely ideological
reasons. They also warn that many other projects for monitoring climate
change, including several satellite missions, face similar threats from
the Trump administration and Congress.
Such losses have serious consequences, say researchers. "Sea-ice data
provided by satellites is essential for initiating climate models and
validating them," said Andrew Fleming of the British Antarctic Survey.
"We will be very much the poorer without that information."
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/nov/05/donald-trump-accused-blocking-satellite-climate-change-research
*WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017*
<https://public.wmo.int/en/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate-2017>
Every year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issues a
Statement on the State of the Global Climate based on data provided by
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and other
national and international organizations. For more than 20 years, these
reports have been published in the six official languages of the United
Nations to inform governments, international agencies, other WMO
partners and the general public about the global climate and significant
weather and climate trends and events at the global and regional levels.
The Statement on the State of the Global Climate will be structured in
two strands including physical aspects coordinated by WMO with authors
from international scientific institutions and a strand on impact
aspects which will be coordinated by another UN agency. The final
release of the Publication is expected in March 2018.
A provisional Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017 will
be released at the Occasion of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP 23)
which will be held in Bonn, Germany, from 6 to 17 November 2017. It will
provide an assessment of the State of the global climate during the
period January-September 2017. The planning for contribution and release
of the provisional Statement
<https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Planning_for_the_Statement_Global_Climate_2017.pdf?6LBx8GXPi4hBSJ0aTQNPXYQ6jo1rt9r9>
is now available. /(pdf)/
https://public.wmo.int/en/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate-2017
*What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/03/what-do-jellyfish-teach-us-about-climate-change>*
What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?
A lot. At least that's what I learned after reading a very recent paper
out in the journal Global Climate Change. The article, "Ocean
acidification alters zooplankton communities and increases top-down
pressure of a cubazoan predator," was authored by an international team
of scientists - the paper looks at impacts of climate change on life in
the world's oceans.
I recall attending a horse-pulling contest as a child. The announcer at
the event said something strange that stuck with me all these years. He
said that two horses pulling a load at the same time are more effective
than if the two horses pulled separately and their loads were added.
That is, something about two horses working together made them greater
than the sum of their parts. This study is a lot like those horses.
What they found was really interesting. While both changes to chemistry
and introduction of predators affected the populations of calanoids, the
simultaneous actions of acidification and predators was greater than the
individual actions. So, we see the analogy with the horses....
Why are the combined effects of these two changes more potent? The
authors give clues. If, for instance, a more acidic ocean reduces the
metabolic efficiency of the creatures, then they will have less energy
to escape predators. In fact, these calanoid creatures are known to
escape predators by making a jump or a series of jumps. Consequently, in
non-altered water, only about 1% of hunting tries are successful. But,
in altered water, with less energy for the calanoids, perhaps more
jellyfish hunts end in a meal.
There may be other explanations - certainly future research will shed
more light on this. But, already we can learn a lot. First, simply
adding the effects of climate change phenomena may lead to an
underestimate of impact. This underestimate may be true beyond the
biological world. For instance, as storms become stronger with both
winds and precipitation increasing, we may find that the damage will
increase more than the separate stories of increasing wind and
increasing precipitation. Similarly, increased temperature and decreased
frequency of rain may cause more severe droughts than expected by the
separate influences of these trends
Fascinating stuff; I can't wait to read the next study from these
authors. I also can't wait to see if others apply this new insight to
different climate change problems.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/03/what-do-jellyfish-teach-us-about-climate-change
*This Day in Climate History November 6, 1990
<http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237> - from D.R. Tucker*
November 6, 1990: In a speech to the 2nd World Climate Conference in
Geneva, Margaret Thatcher declares:
The danger of global warming is as yet unseen, but real enough for us to
make changes and sacrifices, so that we do not live at the expense of
future generations.
Our ability to come together to stop or limit damage to the world's
environment will be perhaps the greatest test of how far we can act as a
world community. No-one should under-estimate the imagination that will
be required, nor the scientific effort, nor the unprecedented
co-operation we shall have to show. We shall need statesmanship of a
rare order. It's because we know that, that we are here today.
For two centuries, since the Age of the Enlightenment, we assumed that
whatever the advance of science, whatever the economic development,
whatever the increase in human numbers, the world would go on much the
same. That was progress. And that was what we wanted.
Now we know that this is no longer true.
We have become more and more aware of the growing imbalance between our
species and other species, between population and resources, between
humankind and the natural order of which we are part.
In recent years, we have been playing with the conditions of the life we
know on the surface of our planet. We have cared too little for our
seas, our forests and our land. We have treated the air and the oceans
like a dustbin. We have come to realise that man's activities and
numbers threaten to upset the biological balance which we have taken for
granted and on which human life depends.
We must remember our duty to Nature before it is too late. That duty is
constant. It is never completed. It lives on as we breathe. It endures
as we eat and sleep, work and rest, as we are born and as we pass away.
The duty to Nature will remain long after our own endeavours have
brought peace to the Middle East. It will weigh on our shoulders for as
long as we wish to dwell on a living and thriving planet, and hand it on
to our children and theirs. [end p89]
I want to pay tribute to the important work which the United Nations has
done to advance our understanding of climate change, and in particular
the risks of global warming. Dr. Tolba and Professor Obasi deserve our
particular thanks for their far-sighted initiative in establishing the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The IPCC report is a remarkable achievement. It is almost as difficult
to get a large number of distinguished scientists to agree, as it is to
get agreement from a group of politicians. As a scientist who became a
politician, I am perhaps particularly qualified to make that
observation! I know both worlds....
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237
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