[TheClimate.Vote] November 28, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Nov 28 11:43:26 EST 2017
/November 28, 2017
/
*How to persuade people that climate change is real
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/28/how-to-persuade-people-that-climate-change-is-real/?utm_term=.20dd7e52c369>*
By Alexander Maki November 28
Here are five insights from the young but growing body of research on
climate change communication.
*1. The messenger matters*
matching messenger to audience leads to more effective messages...people
are more likely to believe climate science when it is discussed by
meteorologists.
*2. People respond to appeals based on their values*
...research suggests that tailoring messages to fit the audience’s
values can make people more willing to believe climate science.
*3. Educating people about the science can make a difference*
Educating people that there’s a broad scientific consensus about climate
change may make people... more likely to believe it exists. What’s not
so clear is whether metaphors or narratives can help people appreciate
the nuances of the climate science.
*4. Emphasizing risk may spur people to action*
...when people experience extreme weather or have noticed changes in the
local weather, they are more likely to believe that climate change is
occurring.
*5. Affirming the power of the people*
..when individuals and communities feel that they can help mitigate
climate change, they’re more likely to act...People are also likely to
feel more engaged and effective when they have tools to combat
misinformation and misunderstanding about climate change.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/28/how-to-persuade-people-that-climate-change-is-real/
-
*How Americans Think About Climate Change, in Six Maps*
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/21/climate/how-americans-think-about-climate-change-in-six-maps.html>
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/21/climate/how-americans-think-about-climate-change-in-six-maps.html
*Climate risk: going mainstream
<http://www.theactuary.com/features/2017/09/climate-risk-going-mainstream/>*
The governor of the Bank of England and ExxonMobil shareholders are just
some of those changing the narrative on climate risk, says Dylan Tanner
Once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it
may already be too late
Data, analysis and advice on climate risk to portfolios have been around
and available to investors for at least 20 years. By the late 1990s, the
UN Environment Program (UNEP) Financial Initiative was messaging
regularly on the risk of climate-change-induced weather events to the
insurance sector and hence the wider markets...
In 2000, the investor-enabled Climate Disclosure Project (CDP) began
collecting and aggregating carbon emissions information from thousands
of companies around the globe. Financial data sets such as MSCI, Thomson
Reuters Eikon and Bloomberg create and sell climate-related metrics on
companies as part of their environment, social and governance (ESG)
offering...
One of the largest such funds is Norway's Government Pension Fund
Global, with close to $1trn in assets. It adopted criteria in late 2015,
allowing it to "exclude companies whose conduct to an unacceptable
degree entails greenhouse gas emissions". ..
In the climate risk context, this process will spur the financial
research and data sectors to acquire expertise, and perhaps to form
unusual alliances with climate specialists in the NGO, academic and
technology sectors, to better understand the nuances of portfolio,
sector and company risk.
http://www.theactuary.com/features/2017/09/climate-risk-going-mainstream/
*The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change
<http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2>*
Author: Ingrid H. H. Zabel; Don Duggan-Haas and Robert M. Ross
Year: 2017
Pages: 284
ISBN: 978-0-87710-519-0
Download full PDF version
<http://www.priweb.org/files/pubtext/TFG-ClimateChange-Complete.pdf>
The interactive online version of this Teacher-Friendly Guide is at
http://teacherfriendlyguide.org
Notes:
The Teacher-Friendly Guide™ to Climate Change is the newest addition to
our Teacher-Friendly series. This book includes both the basics of
climate change science and perspectives on teaching a subject that has
become socially and politically polarized. The focus audience is high
school Earth science and environmental science teachers, and it is
written with an eye toward the kind of information and graphics that a
secondary school teacher might need in the classroom. Print copies are
available for purchase here and a PDF version is available above as a
free download.
Teach Climate Science is a fundraiser designed to distribute TFG Climate
Change nationwide. Help us spread the word by donating on our fundraiser
page. You can also visit our blog, where the TFG Climate Change PDF is
presented chapter by chapter and where we are also posting resources
about climate change and science education
Note
Due to significant recent interest, we have exhausted our initial
supply of printed copies of The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate
Change. Do not worry - more have been ordered and we will be
receiving a new supply soon. Please feel free to place your order
now. As soon as our new shipment arrives, we will send you your
order, with expected delivery in early December. If you have any
questions, please do not hesitate to ask:
publications at museumoftheearth.org.
http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2
-
*Here's the Teacher-Friendly Antidote to Heartland Institute's
Anti-Science School 'Propaganda'
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/26/teacher-friendly-guide-climate-change-heartland-institute-anti-science-propaganda>*
By Ashley Braun Sunday, November 26, 2017
On a Monday morning at the end of October, Rob Ross
<https://www.priweb.org/research.php?page=702670/cv_ross> asked a group
of earth scientists and educators a question: How many of them had
received copies of the Heartland Institute
<https://www.desmogblog.com/heartland-institute> book /Why Scientists
Disagree About Global Warming/?
You could feel an immediate sense of frustration in the air. Roughly
half of them raised their hands. The Heartland Institute is a
Chicago-based think tank that rejects the scientific consensus that
humans are changing the climate and has received funding from the
conservative billionaire Koch brothers and fossil fuel industry.
In March, it mailed, unsolicited, a 135-page book and accompanying DVD
to tens of thousands of science teachers
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/10/us-senators-warn-education-department-heartland-institute-possibly-fraudulent-science-teachers-mailing>
at public high schools across the U.S., with plans to keep that up until
the report was in the hands of every last one.
While it received swift backlash - including from Democratic senators,
Heartland's most recent effort (though not its first
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2013/11/07/heartland-tries-poison-classrooms-partisan-climate-pseudoscience>)
to spread climate science denial in public schools had a somewhat
fortuitous timing. Ross and his colleagues at the Paleontological
Research Institution <http://www.priweb.org/index.php?> were putting the
finishing touches on their own book for science educators, /The
Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change
<http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2>/....
/The Teacher-Friendly Guide/ already had 11 chapters covering everything
from the evidence and causes of climate change to the obstacles in
addressing and reasons for teaching it. Adding a final chapter, written
by Alexandra Moore
<https://www.priweb.org/outreach.php?page=edstaff/edalexmoore>, in the
form of frequently asked questions (FAQ) seemed like the best approach....
While they don't explicitly mention the Heartland teacher mailing in the
FAQ, Duggan-Haas pointed out, "The first question of the FAQ chapter is
'Is there a consensus among climate scientists that global warming is
occurring and that humans are the cause?'"
In keeping with best practices for science communication, Duggan-Haas
said they didn't want to trigger the "backfire effect
<https://skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-Part-2-Familiarity-Backfire-Effect.html>,"
a phenomenon that may occur when trying to correct misinformation.
"We're trying to avoid restating the myth in a way that would reinforce
it," he said.
Ross agreed: "We did not dwell on the Heartland Institute, even in the
FAQ, but we did try to make sure we addressed some of the most important
points that the Heartland Institute was making in their propaganda."
In its FAQ, the Paleontological Research Institution's teacher guide
answers 18 questions touching on common climate science denier points,
including why we can trust the proven reliability of computer climate
models <https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm> and why humans,
rather than natural variation
<https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.htm> or the
sun
<https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm>,
are the most likely explanation for observed global warming.
One of the questions, "Are people who are arguing that global warming is
happening being alarmists?" is a likely reference to the derogatory
term, "alarmist," frequently used by the Heartland Institute and other
climate denier organizations...
While /The Teacher-Friendly Guide/ doesn't mention the Heartland
Institute's propaganda sent to teachers, it does call out the
science-denying think tank by name. Question 16 in the FAQ reads like
this: "Climate websites refer to both the IPCC and, more recently, the
NIPCC. What is the difference between these two organizations?"..
"The 'Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change' is
sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a U.S.-based conservative think
tank best known for fighting government regulation of the tobacco and
fossil fuel industries. Heartland has campaigned to downplay threats
posed by second-hand smoke, acid rain, and ozone depletion, as well as
against the Endangered Species Act. The Heartland NIPCC also issues
periodic reports, timed to coincide with the release of IPCC assessment
reports and formatted to look like them. NIPCC reports are authored by
fewer than 50 individuals and the most recent report cites only 72
papers, mostly written by the NIPCC authors."
The National Center for Science Education handily debunks the NIPCC
<https://ncse.com/files/nipcc.pdf> - and so has DeSmog
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2013/09/17/international-climate-science-coalition-s-lacks-credibility>.
Published in May, /The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change
<http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2>/
has its work cut out for it. Ross says their plan is "to send a guide to
every high school in the country with CDs for every teacher in the
high school."
And they're crowdfunding to raise more money
<https://www.givegab.com/nonprofits/paleontological-research-institution-and-its-museum-of-the-earth-and-cayuga-nature-center/campaigns/climate-change-challenge>,
on top of their original National Science Foundation grant, in order to
pull that off...he acknowledged that American science teachers,
generally and unsurprisingly, reflect the knowledge and attitudes
<http://munews.missouri.edu/news-releases/2017/0607-climate-change-misconceptions-common-among-teachers-study-finds/>
of the broader American public on climate change.
Still, six months after the first release of /The Teacher-Friendly Guide
to Climate Change/, it seems to be in high demand: the paperback version
($25 each) has already run out until early December. But anyone can
access a free PDF of The Teacher Friendly Guide online
<http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2>
right now.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/26/teacher-friendly-guide-climate-change-heartland-institute-anti-science-propaganda
*Climate Change Adaptation: The Antifragile Portfolio
<https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127708-climate-change-adaptation-antifragile-portfolio>*
Summary
Ethical investors like plays on energy efficiency, renewable energy,
sustainable transport or organic food.
These are strong trends, but they require others to change their behaviour.
Therefore, prudent investors may want to consider bets on adjustments
forced upon people.
Here are five suggestions.
Different views on climate change
People think very differently about climate change:
Some are in die-hard denial,
some accept there is climate change, but say they are not sure about its
causes,
some accept climate change is caused by humans, but are too lazy or
fatalistic to do something about it
and then there are activists.
Despite all talk I very much doubt there are many denialists among
investors. Otherwise these contrarians would buy coastal dream
properties or farmland in increasingly dry regions at a discount. I do
not see any of that happen. If anything, denialism serves as a tool to
protect short-term business interests (cf. Real estate industry blocks
sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties).
At the other end of the spectrum I have been spending my time in the
activist camp which is pretty deserted as well. Yes, the financial
industry is offering an ever-growing number of SRI, ESG and
'Sustainable' labelled products, but a brief look under the hood shows
that this is often no more than marketing. Therefore, it seems fair to
conclude that it is the groups 2 and 3 that are dominating the market....
People cannot opt out of climate change. Its consequences will be
experienced by all four groups mentioned above. Thus, prudent
sustainable investors may want to make sure they have some exposure to
businesses that will benefit from adjustments forced upon people by
climate change.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127708-climate-change-adaptation-antifragile-portfolio
*Warming is accelerating
<http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/11/warming-is-accelerating.html>*
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2017
Warming is accelerating. For some time, it has been warmer than the 1.5
degrees C guardrail that the Paris Agreement promised should not be
crossed. This conclusion follows from above analysis of NASA land+ocean
data 1880-October 2017, adjusted by 0.59 degrees C to cater for the rise
from preindustrial and with a trend added that also indicates that the
global temperature look set to cross the 2 degrees C guardrail soon,
with 2021 falling within the margins of the trend line.
[ click images to enlarge ]
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0KgSwjS8qDs/WhfZO6--qTI/AAAAAAAAYHQ/RCWGBiuwznMq2GbROG1QnIibDCZ6_IK2wCLcBGAs/s320/Ocean-warming.png>
The trend line shows a strong and ominous direction upward. Nonetheless,
the situation could be even more dire than this trend indicates, since
some warming elements are not fully incorporated in these data.
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/11/warming-is-accelerating.html
*Could a Rogue Nation Alter Clouds to Combat Warming?
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/could-a-rogue-nation-alter-clouds-to-combat-warming/>*
Two experiments have sparked an international debate over geoengineering
Plans for two experiments to potentially slow global warming by
deploying tiny particles into the atmosphere have sparked an
international debate over whether such tests should be allowed without
some form of government scrutiny.
The experiments are being planned by scientists who worry that the U.S.
government, and others, is not equipped to move fast enough to mitigate
greenhouse gases before the world reaches dangerous "tipping points."
Those stages of planetary change could accelerate the heating effect,
perhaps to life-threatening levels, they say.
Those involved in the debates are split about the experiments, being
planned at the University of Washington and Harvard University. Dr. V.
"Ram" Ramanathan, a professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at the
Scripps Institute of Oceanography at the University of California, San
Diego, is an author of a study released this fall at the United Nations
in an attempt to enlarge the discussion of potential climate disasters
(Climatewire, Sept. 15).
Plans for two experiments to potentially slow global warming by
deploying tiny particles into the atmosphere have sparked an
international debate over whether such tests should be allowed without
some form of government scrutiny.
The experiments are being planned by scientists who worry that the U.S.
government, and others, is not equipped to move fast enough to mitigate
greenhouse gases before the world reaches dangerous "tipping points."
Those stages of planetary change could accelerate the heating effect,
perhaps to life-threatening levels, they say.
Those involved in the debates are split about the experiments, being
planned at the University of Washington and Harvard University. Dr. V.
"Ram" Ramanathan, a professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at the
Scripps Institute of Oceanography at the University of California, San
Diego, is an author of a study released this fall at the United Nations
in an attempt to enlarge the discussion of potential climate disasters
(Climatewire, Sept. 15)....
entists at the University of Washington, like at Harvard, have brought
people from a number of other departments into discussions about the
proposed experiments. Stephen Gardiner, a professor of philosophy at the
University of Washington, has even gotten a book out of it: "A Perfect
Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change."
"Some people suggest that we wait so we can make foolproof tests that
don't backfire on us," Gardiner said. "There isn't going to be any
magical way of doing this that benefits absolutely everybody across the
planet." On the other hand, he said, "no country wants to be on the
nasty end of this."
"Who makes the call?" he asked. "Who is in charge?"
Gardiner fears what he calls a huge intergenerational problem. There is
an older generation that might be lulled into thinking it should wait
for a perfect climate solution. Gardiner believes it resembles the
British in their hopes for appeasement in the years before Nazi Germany
ignited World War II.
Then there is the younger generation, including the students whom he
pushes to mull over the ethics of geoengineering in his philosophy
classes. He gives them the "Captain Kirk test," after James T. Kirk, the
fictional spaceship commander on "Star Trek." The series has kept
international audiences in thrall over science fiction drama for more
than 50 years.
"I always ask my classes, what would they do if Captain Kirk shows up
with technologies from hundreds of years in the future that have been
successfully tested and you knew exactly how to fine-tune them, and the
alternative was climate change?" Gardiner said.
"I find most people would be willing to give Captain Kirk a hearing," he
added. "But a big problem is that we're nowhere near the world of
Captain Kirk. And it is not at all clear that we can get there fast
enough to make these big technological interventions relevant to the
problem that we face."
www.scientificamerican.com/article/could-a-rogue-nation-alter-clouds-to-combat-warming/
*Climate foiled Europeans' early exploration of North America
<https://www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-foiled-europeans-early-exploration-north-america>*
'A Cold Welcome' examines how the Little Ice Age and other factors
shaped colonial history
... explorations occurred during a time of global cooling known as the
Little Ice Age, which stretched from the 13th to early 20th centuries.
The height of exploration may have occurred at the peak of cooling:
Starting in the late 16th century, a series of volcanic eruptions likely
chilled the Northern Hemisphere by as much as 1.8 degrees Celsius below
the long-term average, White says.
This cooling gave Europeans an especially distorted impression of their
new lands. For instance, not long after Spanish explorer Sebastián
Vizcaíno landed in California's Monterey Bay in December 1602, men's
water jugs froze overnight - an unlikely scenario today. Weather
dissuaded Spain from further attempts at colonizing California for over
a century.
Harsh weather also heightened conflict when underprepared Europeans met
Native Americans, whose own resources were stretched thin by
unexpectedly bad growing seasons.
A Cold Welcome is organized largely by colonial power, which means
findings on climate are repeated in each chapter. But White's synthesis
of climate and history is novel, and readers will see echoes of today's
ignorance about the local consequences of climate change. "Human
psychology may be both too quick to grasp at false patterns and yet too
slow to let go of familiar expectations," White writes.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-foiled-europeans-early-exploration-north-america
*This Day in Climate History November 28, 2010
<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/opinion/28victor.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0>
- from D.R. Tucker*
November 28, 2010: In a New York Times article, Veerabhadran
Ramanathan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and David G.
Victor of the University of California, San Diego discuss the need to
make progress on climate change.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/opinion/28victor.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
/
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