[TheClimate.Vote] November 30, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Nov 30 07:33:57 EST 2017
/November 30, 2017
/
*Banks warned of 'regulatory action' as climate change bites global
economy
<https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/29/banks-warned-of-regulatory-action-as-climate-change-bites-global-economy>*
Australia's financial regulator has stepped-up its warning to banks,
lenders and insurers, saying climate change is already impacting the
global economy, and flagged the possibility of "regulatory action".
Geoff Summerhayes from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
(Apra) revealed it had begun quizzing companies about their actions to
assess climate risks, noting it would be demanding more in the future.
Apra also revealed it has established an internal working group to
assess the financial risk from climate change and was coordinating an
interagency initiative with the corporate watchdog Asic, the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) and federal Treasury to examine what risks
climate change was posing to Australia's economy.
He said the inter-agency initiative created between Apra, Asic, the RBA
and Treasury would investigate whether companies are taking steps to
protect themselves and their customers from the physical, transitional
and liability risks caused by climate change.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/29/banks-warned-of-regulatory-action-as-climate-change-bites-global-economy
*New maps of climate opinions by political party, Partisan Opinion Maps
2016 (Yale)
<http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/partisan-maps-2016/>*
Today we are pleased to announce the publication of a new article: "The
spatial distribution of U.S. Republican and Democratic climate opinions
at state and local scales" in the journal /Climatic Change Letters/, as
well as the launch of a new interactive set of maps.
<https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=cff92a10e7&e=8595955670>
The paper and maps describe the distribution of both Democratic and
Republican opinions on climate change across all US states and
congressional districts. The maps illustrate, for example, that 69% of
Democrats in Alabama believe climate change is happening, but that is
the lowest percentage of any states; in Oregon and California 88% of
Democrats believe it is happening, and in Texas, it's 82%.
Republicans are less convinced overall, but there is substantial spatial
variability in their beliefs as well - for example, 62% of New York
Republicans believe global warming is happening, while only 48% of
Republicans in Nebraska and Kansas agree. And at the congressional
district level, Republican views of climate change are even more
heterogeneous, as the map below illustrates:
The new results build on our prior work (e.g., Howe et al. 2013, and
Mildenberger et al., 2015) that estimated climate change opinions at
state and local scales among the general population. This project,
however, for the first time, maps spatial variations in opinion within
the populations of Democrats and Republicans respectively. The article
and the maps should provide new insights into the political dynamics of
climate change opinion and suggest new opportunities for bipartisan
conversations about how to best address this critical challenge.
Mildenberger, M., Howe, P., Marlon, J., & Leiserowitz, A. (2017) The
spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate and energy
opinions at state and local scales. /Climatic Change Letters/.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2103-0
<https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=e85d0deb48&e=8595955670>.
Please visit the online interactive maps
<https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=b3b00512c9&e=8595955670>
to explore these partisan climate change opinions where you live and
across the nation. The article is available here
<https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=a18a17ba15&e=8595955670>
to those with a subscription to /Climatic Change Letters/. If you would
like to request a copy, please send an email to climatechange at yale.edu
<mailto:climatechange at yale.edu>, with the Subject Line: Request
Political Maps Paper.
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/partisan-maps-2016/
*New study uncovers the 'keystone domino' strategy of climate denial
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial>*
How climate denial blogs misinform so many people with such poor
scientific arguments.
Dana Nuccitelli
The body of evidence supporting human-caused global warmingis vast
<https://skepticalscience.com/big-picture.html>- too vast for climate
denial blogs to attack it all. Instead they focus on whata new study
<https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix133/4644513>published
in the journal Bioscience calls "keystone dominoes." These are
individual pieces of evidence that capture peoples' attention, like
polar bears. The authors write:
"These topics are used as "proxies" for AGW [human-caused global
warming] in general; in other words, they represent keystone
dominoes that are strategically placed in front of many hundreds of
others, each representing a separate line of evidence for AGW. By
appearing to knock over the keystone domino, audiences targeted by
the communication may assume all other dominoes are toppled in a
form of "dismissal by association."
Basically, if these bloggers can create the perception that the science
underlying polar bear or Arctic sea ice vulnerability to climate change
is incorrect, their readers will assume that all of climate science is
fatally flawed. And blogs can be relatively influential - surveys have
shown that blog readers trust them more than traditional news and
information sources.
Indeed, the scientific research is quite clear that Arctic sea ice is in
the midst of a rapid declinedue primarily to human-caused global warming
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-melt-natural-or-man-made-intermediate.htm>.
Because polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt seals, global warming also
threatens their species. While some polar bear sub-populations are
stable thus far,others are declining
<http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/population-map.html>, andthat trend
will only accelerate as sea ice continues to disappear
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/polar-bears-global-warming.htm>...
Nevertheless, climate denial can be influential, andclimate scientists
remain trusted sources
<http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/10/04/public-views-on-climate-change-and-climate-scientists/>.
Their responses to scientific misinformation can be powerful. For
example,Climate Feedback <https://climatefeedback.org/>(which enlists
climate scientists to review news articles related to climate change) is
a highly respected and influential resource...
It's also important that we not lose sight of the forest for the trees.
Although it may be interesting to debate whether polar bears will be
able to adapt to their rapidly-changing environment, that single climate
change impact does not alter the overwhelming body of scientific
evidence supporting human-caused global warming and the threats it
poses. Climate science isn't a set of dominoes or a house of cards; it's
a towering structure built on a strong scientific foundation.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial
*Weatherwatch: climate change means lots of birdsong, even in November
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/28/weatherwatch-climate-change-means-lots-of-birdsong-even-in-november>*
Unlike other birds, robins have always sung throughout the season, but
now other species are joining them due to their warming environment
Thanks to the effects of climate change, combined with the
"urban-heat-island effect" - in which cities are several degrees warmer
than the surrounding countryside - London is now a hotspot for
unseasonal birdsong. Visit any of the capital's parks, especially at
dawn when the sound of commuter traffic has yet to reach its peak, and
you'll hear a wide range of songbirds.
Listen out for the impossibly loud song of the wren - with the trill my
fellow writer Dominic Couzens calls "the twiddle in the middle" - as
this tiny bird signals its presence from deep inside hedgerows and
shrubberies. Joining the chorus are the great tit, which sings its
"tea-cher, tea-cher" song from a prominent twig, the scolding, frantic
sound of the blue tit, and the rather monotonous song of the dunnock.
For something a little more exotic, pay a visit to the WWT's London
Wetland Centre <https://www.wwt.org.uk/wetland-centres/london/>or the
RSPB's Rainham Marshes
<https://www.rspb.org.uk/reserves-and-events/find-a-reserve/reserves-a-z/reserves-by-name/r/rainhammarshes/>
reserve, where you can hear the explosive sound of a relatively recent
colonist, Cetti's warbler, more or less all year round.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/28/weatherwatch-climate-change-means-lots-of-birdsong-even-in-november
-
*Cettis Warbler and its call :18
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn3_NKp32dE>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn3_NKp32dE
*(video) Report: Extreme climate events virtually certain to increase -
YouTube <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tadMXSl7cQU>*
Video for Dr. Radley Horton report
Nov 3, 2017 - Uploaded by PBS NewsHour
We are now in the warmest period in modern civilization. That's
according to an extensive report - authored by 13 federal agencies,
experts and scientists - that directly contradicts the Trump
administration's position on climate change. Hari Sreenivasan speaks
with Radley Horton of Columbia University about the dire assessment of
the state of the climate and its impact on the U.S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tadMXSl7cQU
-
Read online the Full Climate Science Special Report
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/03/climate/document-Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.html>
"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is
extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of
greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since
the mid-20th century," the report states.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/03/climate/document-Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.html
-
Download the Original report PDF from Document Cloud
<https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf>
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf
-*
(video) Dangerous Climate Change is Here and Worse to Come, Major Report
Warns <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-7mVz8HJU>*
Contributing author to the report for the US Congress, Columbia
University climate scientist, Dr. Radley Horton says more extreme
weather events will be more common if U.S. doesn't curb use of fossil fuel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-7mVz8HJU
*Millions of Yemenis on verge of losing clean running water
<http://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/20969/millions-of-yemenis-on-verge-of-losing-clean-running-water>*
SIXDEGREES on 11/29/2017 at 4:48 am
THERE IS A MAJOR DANGER OF CHOLERA COMEBACK AS FOUR IN FIVE PEOPLE WILL
BE WITHOUT STEADY WATER SUPPLY.
Eight million people in Yemen will be without running water within days
as fuel runs out due to the Saudi-led coalition blockade of the
country's northern ports, Oxfam warned.
They will join the almost 16 million people in Yemen who already cannot
get clean piped water, leaving more than four in five people without a
steady supply of clean water.
A disruption to fuel supplies on this scale could trigger a fresh spike
in a cholera epidemic which has seen nearly 950,000 suspected cases
since April this year, but which had begun to ease in recent weeks.
Water scarcity in Yemen is amongst the worst in the world and the
country mostly depends on ground water for its water supply.
Oxfam's work providing water has already been hit by fuel shortages. In
Khamer district of Amran governorate in Western central Yemen - where
there have been 174 deaths due to cholera since April - 31,000 people
have already been cut off as parts of the water network have run out or
are close to running out of fuel.
Stevenson said: "The longer the blockade continues, the more people need
our help but the less help we are able to offer. The international
community cannot be allowed to turn its backs on the suffering in Yemen.
All those with influence over the Saudi-led coalition are complicit in
Yemen's suffering unless they do all they can to push them to lift the
blockade."
http://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/20969/millions-of-yemenis-on-verge-of-losing-clean-running-water
(video) Addiction to Growth - Root Cause of Climate Change
<https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s>
UPFSI .org https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s
Climate Matters welcomes Dr. Philip Lawn, from the International Society
for Ecological Economics (http://isecoeco.org) and Binzagr Institute for
Sustainable Prosperity, to today's show. We discuss the root cause of
climate change, and so many other ills of society and the ecosphere, our
global Addiction to Growth.
https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s
/Checking the facts:/*
Grist article on an "Ice Apocalypse" mostly accurate, but doesn't make
the likelihood of that apocalypse clear enough to readers
<https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities-grist-eric-holthaus/>*
Analysis of "Ice Apocalypse" Published in Grist, by Eric Holthaus on 21
Nov. 2017
<http://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/>
Six scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific
credibility to be 'high'.
A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Accurate, Alarmist,
Insightful, Sound reasoning.
SCIENTISTS' FEEDBACK:
SUMMARY
This article at Grist by Eric Holthaus examines the risk of greater sea
level rise caused by a more rapid loss of glacial ice. It focuses on a
process recently added to one ice sheet model (ice cliff instability),
which greatly accelerated the simulated loss of Antarctic ice in a
warming climate, suggesting that we could see more sea level rise by
2100 than previously projected.
Scientists who reviewed the article found that while it accurately
described recent research on these processes, it should have provided
more accurate context on the timescale of these sea level rise scenarios
and the scientific uncertainty about how likely these scenarios are to
come to pass.
*Twila Moon, Lecturer (Assistant Professor), University of Bristol:*
The major failure of the article is that it incorrectly presents the
scientifically published timeline for worst case sea level rise.
This is unfortunate, because the overall information in the article
about marine ice-cliff instability potentially causing sea levels to
rise much sooner than previously thought is correct and important to
communicate, and the quoted scientists' statements are accurate.
There are many important science questions, but it is true that
understanding the rate of ice loss at Pine Island and Thwaites
Glaciers is very important for understanding how quickly future sea
level rise will happen. Understanding Thwaites is arguably more
important than Pine Island, though they are part of a connect region
of ice. A recent peer-reviewed science article that takes a closer
look at the question and explains the importance of understanding
changes is Scambos et al, 2017*.
*Richard Alley, Professor, Penn State University:*
The basic idea is I believe correct—if Thwaites Glacier in West
Antarctica in the future begins to behave the way Greenland's ice
sheet is now behaving at Jakobshavn, Helheim and some other outlets,
the resulting future sea level rise is likely to be notably higher
and faster than currently projected by the IPCC. Iceberg calving
from non-floating (tidewater) fronts is a widespread and well-known
process (passengers on cruise ships to Alaska have been observing it
routinely, for example), and the rate of calving is generally
accepted to increase in deeper water and to be favored by reduced
friction from the sides, for robust physical reasons. The Greenland
outlets are in ~1 km deep fjords that are only a few km wide;
furthermore, retreat out of these relatively narrow and short fjords
would not greatly raise global sea level (most of Greenland's ice
rests on bedrock that is near or above sea level). Retreat of
Thwaites Glacier could reach much deeper water with a much wider
calving front, and beyond some threshold of retreat is generally
modeled as triggering the full deglaciation of the marine basins
with ~3 meters of globally averaged sea-level rise, because so much
of West Antarctica's ice rests on interconnected deep beds.
The DeConto-Pollard numbers (and earlier, the Pollard-DeConto-Alley
numbers, so note that I was involved with earlier parts of this
research) assumed that if triggered, the retreat in West Antarctica
would not be as fast as the fastest rates already observed in
Greenland (a maximum retreat rate was set in the model); the notably
greater sea-level contribution of West Antarctica in the new
modeling arises from the much broader calving front that would be
activated. But, the greater depth and width of West Antarctica's
deep marine basins than in Greenland could produce much faster
calving than in Greenland. Hence, the DeConto-Pollard simulations
are not a worst-case scenario.
The uncertainties remain very large, especially regarding the amount
of warming to that threshold. But, because tidewater calving is such
a widespread process, it is highly likely that warming beyond some
threshold will cause tidewater processes to occur in West
Antarctica, consistent with the paleo-observations in deglaciated
marine areas off Pine Island Bay. Current physical understanding
then leads to the expectation of quite rapid sea-level rise. Much
work remains to be done to narrow the uncertainties, including
analyses of the "melange" of broken-up icebergs mentioned by Ted
Scambos—but note that such a melange is present in the narrow fjord
of Jakobshavn, providing a backstress that has still allowed the
rapid retreat observed there. I believe DeConto and Pollard have
taken a well-justified path in estimating the warming threshold, but
much additional work can be done. Many other models that project
smaller future sea-level rise from West Antarctica also lack the
transition to tidewater calving. If warming becomes large enough to
trigger tidewater processes in West Antarctica (or East Antarctica),
then models lacking those processes are not useful for providing
either most-likely or worst-case scenarios for sea-level rise.
See all the scientists' annotations in context
<https://via.hypothes.is/https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/>
https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities-grist-eric-holthaus/
-
*How much, how fast?: A science review and outlook for research on the
instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st century
<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811630491X>*
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license open access
Highlights:
Thwaites Glacier is a likely site of greatly increased Antarctic ice
sheet mass loss.
Changes in the atmosphere and ocean and their interaction with the
glacier are the cause.
A coordinated multi-disciplinary research plan to study Thwaites Glacier
is outlined.
Abstract
Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been
identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National
Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline
further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the
most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites
Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence
point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to
changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice
sheet's dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly
accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier
grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and
retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would
raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice
from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next
few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes
omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice
cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats
elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased
potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could
initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next
few decades.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811630491X
*Climate Change: 'Like a cancer before onset of symptoms'
<http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/climate-change-like-a-cancer-before-onset-of-symptoms-463693.html>*
Thursday, November 30, 2017
The gradual progression of climate change and delayed effects of
emissions can give a sense of unreality; denial is a great psychological
defence, write Liam Quaide and Roisin Cuddihy.
What is it we are facing? If harmful emissions are not drastically
reduced in the near future climate change will lead, over the course of
our daughter's life, to more erratic and extreme weather, and to
increasingly intense heat-waves, floods and storms.
There will be widespread damage to property and infrastructure, and
crops are likely to suffer on a large scale. Parts of Asia and Africa
will become uninhabitable, resulting in mass migrations of climate
refugees. As resources become scarcer, political and social tensions
will escalate...
Crucially, there must be significant reform of agricultural practices.
At this moment in history we require courage from a Taoiseach who can
reckon with vested interests and put our country on the road to a
sustainable future as part of an international trend led by Norway,
Sweden and the state of California.
The gains for our economy, not to mention our health and quality of
life, would be immense. The losses, if we do not act, are unthinkable.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/climate-change-like-a-cancer-before-onset-of-symptoms-463693.html
*This Day in Climate History November 30, 2010
<http://youtu.be/NTx2QD-XYt8> - from D.R. Tucker*
November 30, 2010: Katie Couric, in her CBSNews.com "Notebook"
segment, observes:
"The debate over global warming is once again heating up in
Washington. Roughly half of the newly elected Republican
congressmembers are climate change skeptics, according to one survey,
and some want to roll back environmental regulations.
"Their position was bolstered by the Climategate scandal, in which a
handful of scientists were accused of manipulating data to support
climate change. The scientists were later cleared, but the damage was
done. Less than 60 percent of Americans now believe in global warming,
down from 80 percent in 2006.
"Still, the vast majority of scientists - 97 percent - say man-made
climate change is real. 700 climate experts have joined a media
project to educate the public, and UN talks are underway in Cancun on
a treaty to curb greenhouse gases.
"Time is ticking. Global warming may have become a political football,
but scientists say it's one we can't afford to punt."
http://youtu.be/NTx2QD-XYt8
/------------------------------------------
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