[TheClimate.Vote] October 18, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/October 18, 2017/

*Tropical thunderstorms are set to grow stronger as the world warms 
<https://phys.org/news/2017-10-tropical-thunderstorms-stronger-worldwarms.html>*
Thunderstorms represent the dramatic release of energy stored in the 
atmosphere. One measure of this stored energy is called "convective 
available potential energy", or CAPE. The higher the CAPE, the more 
energy is available to power updrafts in clouds. Fast updrafts move ice 
particles in the cold, upper regions of a thunderstorm rapidly upward 
and downward through the storm. This helps to separate negatively and 
positively charged particles in the cloud and eventually leads to 
lightning strikes.
To create thunderstorms that cause damaging wind or hail ... a second 
factor is also required... "vertical wind shear", ...and it helps to 
organise thunderstorms so that their updrafts and downdrafts become 
physically separated. This prevents the downdraft from cutting off the 
energy source of the thunderstorm, allowing the storm to persist for longer.
These simulations predict that this century will bring a marked increase 
in the frequency of conditions that favour severe thunderstorms, unless 
greenhouse emissions can be significantly reduced.
Previous studies have made similar predictions for severe thunderstorms 
in eastern Australia and the United States. But ours is the first to 
study the tropics and subtropics as a whole, a region that is 
characterised by some of the most powerful thunderstorms on Earth.
As the climate warms, the amount of water vapour required for cloud 
formation increases. This is the result of a well-known thermodynamic 
relationship called the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. In a warmer climate 
this means the difference in the humidity between the clouds and their 
surroundings becomes larger. As a result, the mixing mechanism becomes 
more efficient in building up the available energy. This, we argue, 
accounts for the increase in CAPE seen in our model simulations.
But it is clear that through our continued greenhouse gas emissions, we 
are increasing the fuel available to the strongest thunderstorms. 
Exactly how much stronger our future thunderstorms will ultimately 
become remains to be seen.
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-tropical-thunderstorms-stronger-worldwarms.html
*(video) Tropical thunderstorms are set to grow stronger, here's why 
<https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/climate-change-tropical-storm-thunderstorm-bigger-global-warming-study/87813/>*
The models predict that the energy available for thunderstorms will 
increase as the Earth warms. But how much more intense will storms 
actually become as a result?
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/climate-change-tropical-storm-thunderstorm-bigger-global-warming-study/87813/


Scientific American
*Here's What We Know about Wildfires and Climate Change 
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/>*
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/


*EPA Head Seeks to Avoid Settlements with Green Groups 
<http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-lawsuits/epa-head-seeks-to-avoid-settlements-with-green-groups-idUSKBN1CL2HK>*
EPA chief Scott Pruitt is trying to end the practice of settling 
lawsuits with environmental groups behind closed doors, claiming the 
groups have had too much influence on regulation. "The days of 
regulation through litigation are over," Pruitt said.
EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, who sued the agency he now runs more 
than a dozen times in his former job as attorney general of oil 
producing Oklahoma, has long railed against the so-called practice of 
"sue and settle." The EPA under former President Barack Obama quietly 
settled lawsuits from environmental groups with little input from 
regulated entities, such as power plants, and state governments, he argues.
The directive seeks to make EPA more transparent about lawsuits by 
reaching out to states and industry that could be affected by 
settlements, forbidding the practice of entering into settlements that 
exceed the authority of courts, and excluding attorney's fees and 
litigation costs when settling with groups.
Most lawsuits by green groups on the agency seek to push the agency to 
speed up regulation on issues such as climate and air and water 
pollution, studies have shown.
"The days of regulation through litigation are over," Pruitt said. "We 
will no longer go behind closed doors and use consent decrees and 
settlement agreements to resolve lawsuits filed against the agency."
Pruitt's order was supported by conservative groups.
Daren Bakst, a research fellow in agricultural policy at the Heritage 
Foundation think tank, said sue and settle has led to "egregious antics" 
that have "effectively handed over the setting of agency priorities to 
environmental pressure groups," and has led to rushed rulemaking by the 
agency.
But Pat Parenteau, an environmental law professor at the Vermont Law 
School, said Pruitt's directive would be "counterproductive" and costly 
because in the end courts could fine the agency if it does not meet 
compliance dates for issuing regulations.
"He can fight it if he wants as long as he wants, and spend as much 
money as he wants," Parenteau said. "But in the end if you've missed a 
statutory deadline, you are going to be ordered (by a court) to comply 
and then you are going to be ordered to pay fees."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-lawsuits/epa-head-seeks-to-avoid-settlements-with-green-groups-idUSKBN1CL2HK

*
****Climate change costing billions in extra road repairs 
<https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/climate-change-billions-dollars-road-repairs>*
By David Trilling
When engineers build roads, they use weather models to decide what kind 
of pavement can withstand the local climate. Currently, many American 
engineers use temperature data from 1964 to 1995 to select materials. 
But the climate is changing.
...road engineers have selected materials inappropriate for current 
temperatures 35 percent of the time over the past two decades.
"At present, engineers assume a stationary climate when selecting 
pavement materials, meaning that they may be embedding an inherent 
negative performance bias in pavements for decades to come," Underwood 
and his colleagues write. Some of their findings:
Failing to adapt to warmer temperatures is adding 3 to 9 percent to the 
cost of building and maintaining a road over 30 years.
The authors use two models of predicted warmer temperatures, which 
suggest between $13.6 and $35.8 billion in extra or earlier-than-normal 
repairs will be required for roads being built under the current models. 
In the lower-temperature warming model, this translates to an annual 
extra cost of between $0.8 billion and $1.3 billion; in the 
higher-temperature warming model, it is an annual extra cost of between 
$0.8 billion and $2.1 billion.
A road built to last 20 years will require repairs after 14 to 17 years 
under these models.
In some cases, government transportation agencies are paying too much 
for materials to withstand cold temperatures that do not currently (and 
perhaps no longer) exist.
Because municipal governments in the United States work on tighter 
road-maintenance budgets than state and federal transportation 
departments, the extra financial strain will largely impact cities and 
towns.
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/climate-change-billions-dollars-road-repairs

*
Harvard Business Review
The 6 Ways Business Leaders Talk About Sustainability 
<https://hbr.org/2017/10/the-6-ways-business-leaders-talk-about-sustainability>
*John Elkington
Capitalists focus on the financial returns from capital invested, and 
most business leaders prioritize issues that are financially material. 
For anyone with a pension linked to market performance, that is a good 
thing. But this single-minded focus can be a major problem when it comes 
to tackling slow-building, systemic challenges, like global warming, 
that could take down not just supply chains but, over time, entire 
economies.
A critical first step is to understand the different mental and 
political frames currently in play.  My colleagues and I see at least 
six main frames at work in the sustainable business space. ..Having a 
clearer grasp of these mental models can help business leaders to work 
with others, both inside and outside their organizations, to build more 
sustainable businesses.
*- The Resource Frame*  ...The focus of people using a resources frame 
to understand sustainability is often on waste reduction and 
technological innovation.
*- The Time Frame *... Successful business leaders must evolve a much 
more expansive view of time, no easy task. One way to expand your 
thinking is to look to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, whose time 
horizon is 2030; think of them as a purchase order from the future.
*- The Value Frame *  Firms like [PUMA]... have created tools like 
Environmental Profit & Loss (EP&L) statements and Social Return on 
Investment (SROI) to capture a more complete picture of their 
businesses. ..Be wary of pricing everything that moves in the 
environment and focusing too much on costs. Expand the focus from 
today's business case for action to tomorrow's business models. Help 
colleagues see the sustainability challenge as potentially the biggest 
opportunity of their lifetimes.
*- The Design Frame * ...  modelling 100 climate change solutions, 
alongside our own work on Carbon Productivity - exploring how we can 
best invest increasingly limited carbon budgets for environmental, 
social and economic returns. Another example includes and biomimicry - 
using lessons Nature learned over 3.8 billion years of evolution to find 
solutions for climate change.  Challenges of this frame: Design is 
crucial, but market acceptance will depend on economics and politics. 
Work to get those right, too.
*- The Abundance Frame * ... world of exponential (breakthrough) 
solutions to exponential (breakdown) challenges, with pioneers including 
the XPRIZE Foundation, Singularity University, and Google's X facility. 
This worldview is powerfully shaped by excitement around the potential 
of emerging technologies like machine learning and artificial 
intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, autonomous vehicles, and 
synthetic biology.
There will almost certainly be unintended consequences to any major 
breakthrough, with even exponential entrepreneurs like Elon Musk 
expressing growing concern about the societal implications of AI and 
robotics.
*- The Moral Frame*  ... growing concern that many leaders have lost 
their moral compass. Ever since ... The Theory of Moral Sentiments, 
preceding The Wealth of Nations, we have known that unregulated 
capitalist values can be destructive.   ...At a time when some MBA 
courses still treat business ethics as a sort of sheep-dip treatment for 
students, an elective, be careful not to sound moralistic or missionary. 
And regularly test your moral compass readings with stakeholders likely 
to be affected by the outcomes of your decisions.
Ultimately, the psychology and cultural anthropology of change will be 
every bit as important as the politics and economics.
https://hbr.org/2017/10/the-6-ways-business-leaders-talk-about-sustainability
*

Climate Skeptics Want More CO2 
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-skeptics-want-more-co2/>*
A key argument used to downplay the consequences of climate change is 
resurfacing
It's true that an increase in available carbon dioxide can be a boon for 
plants, which need it to make the food they turn into energy. In fact, 
recent research published in Nature Climate Change has suggested that 
rising CO2 levels have contributed to a global "greening" over the last 
few decades, or an increase in the leaves on trees and other plants, 
particularly in the rapidly warming Arctic.
But the idea that increasing CO2 will be a pure advantage for plants 
everywhere ignores the negative side effects that human-induced climate 
change may have on vegetation. In fact, research suggests that plants in 
some parts of the world - including some staple food crops for people - 
may actually come out the worse for it.
Another 2016 paper in Nature Communications, focusing on agriculture in 
the United States, suggested that high temperatures may cause severe 
reductions in the production of certain major crops, including corn and 
soybeans. And the research indicated that higher CO2 concentrations 
would not be enough to significantly offset these losses.
Some research has also suggested that rising CO2 concentrations may even 
affect the nutritional value of crops, Anderegg pointed out, with 
potential health consequences for the humans who rely on them for food. 
A 2014 paper in Nature suggested that some beans and grains have lower 
concentrations of zinc and iron when they're grown under elevated CO2 
concentrations.
But as far as plants are concerned, Anderegg also noted that while the 
science is still emerging, "on the whole, I think there's a general 
understanding that the impacts of climate change are materializing 
sooner and are more severe than they were a decade or two ago."
"The rosy optimistic scenarios where CO2 'wins' do exist, but there are 
also plenty of scenarios where drought and temperature and disturbances 
combined basically push global plants into accelerating climate change," 
he added.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-skeptics-want-more-co2/


*Preparing for Floods, Droughts and Water Shortages by Working with, 
Rather than Against, Nature 
<http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-17/preparing-for-floods-droughts-and-water-shortages-by-working-with-rather-than-against-nature/>*
By Sandra Postel on Oct 17, 2017
If disasters related to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather seem 
more common globally, it's because they are: according to a United 
Nations study, between 2005 and 2014, an average of 335 weather-related 
disasters occurred per year, nearly twice the level recorded from 1985 
to 1995.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the changes in weather patterns 
and water flows that we're beginning to see as the planet warms call 
into question the very assumptions that have underpinned our water 
projects for decades. In 2008, seven top water scientists argued 
persuasively in the journal Science that "stationarity"-the foundational 
concept that hydrologic systems vary and fluctuate within a known set of 
boundaries-is dead. When it comes to water, in other words, the past is 
no longer a reliable guide to the future.
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-17/preparing-for-floods-droughts-and-water-shortages-by-working-with-rather-than-against-nature/


*Academic Video Playlist:  Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT 
<https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGyltbdkxta2IZXiv6EATiUiURplkNXN6&disable_polymer=true>*
Published on Mar 16, 2016/
/"Solving our Climate Challenges: Role of Basic Research"/
comment: MIT hosts this important series of lectures... It's college 
level but not rocket surgery, but stay tuned because there are moments 
eloquent expression.   Generally, if curious or concerned it's really 
interesting - academic anxiety at it's most perfect.  It's all 
understandable./
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGyltbdkxta2IZXiv6EATiUiURplkNXN6&disable_polymer=true


*Comprehensive Climate Risk Insurance Database Launched 
<http://sdg.iisd.org/news/comprehensive-climate-risk-insurance-database-launched/>*
The Climate Insurance database aims to contribute to "successful and 
sustainable" climate risk insurance projects in climate-vulnerable 
countries through sharing best practice, and find innovative solutions.
The database claims to be the first independent, comprehensive source of 
information on the numerous types of climate risk insurance available, 
compiling information from several international organizations.
The database includes factsheets, videos and reports, compiled in a 
searchable online catalogue that users can filter by type, topic, 
country, region or organization.
http://sdg.iisd.org/news/comprehensive-climate-risk-insurance-database-launched/


*Conspiracy Theorists Have a Fundamental Cognitive Problem, Say 
Scientists 
<https://www.inverse.com/article/37463-conspiracy-beliefs-illusory-pattern-perception>*
And it can affect all of us.
By Sarah Sloat on October 17, 2017
The world's a scary, unpredictable place, and that makes your brain mad. 
As a predictive organ, the brain is on the constant lookout for patterns 
that both explain the world and help you thrive in it. That ability 
helps humans make sense of the world: For example, you probably 
understand by now that if you see red, that means that you should be on 
the lookout for danger.
But as scientists report in a new paper published in the European 
Journal of Social Psychology, sometimes people sense danger even when 
there is no pattern to recognize - and so their brains create their own. 
This phenomenon, called illusory pattern perception, they write, is what 
drives people who believe in conspiracy theories, like climate change 
deniers, 9/11 truthers, and "Pizzagate" believers.
The study is especially timely: Recent polls suggest that nearly 50 
percent of ordinary, nonpathological Americans believe in at least one 
conspiracy theory.
Illusory pattern perception - the act of seeking patterns that aren't 
there - has been linked to belief in conspiracy theories before, but 
that assumption has never really been supported with empirical evidence. 
The British and Dutch scientists behind the new study are some of the 
first to show that this explanation is in fact correct...
The researchers came to this conclusions after conducting five studies 
on 264 Americans that focused on the relationship between irrational 
beliefs and illusory pattern perception. Initial studies revealed that 
the compulsion to find patterns in an observable situation was in fact 
correlated with irrational beliefs: People who saw patterns in random 
coin tosses and chaotic, abstract paintings were more likely to believe 
in conspiratorial and supernatural theories.
Fortunately, other scientists have found a way to block the 
pervasiveness of illusory pattern perception: critical thinking. In a 
previous interview, North Carolina State University psychology professor 
Anne McLaughlin told Inverse that critical thinking is something that 
can be taught, and if people are trained in the right way, pseudoscience 
and false conspiracies can be combated with logic and reasoning. The 
brain may try to make false connections, but that doesn't mean you have 
to believe it.
https://www.inverse.com/article/37463-conspiracy-beliefs-illusory-pattern-perception


*This Day in Climate History October 18, 1983 
<https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983>  
-  from D.R. Tucker*
October 18, 1983: In what would be one of her last "News Digest"
broadcasts, NBC anchor Jessica Savitch mentions a recently released
EPA report on the consequences of carbon pollution.
https://youtu.be/2w4pFNCzhTg?t=43s
-
*A Greenhouse Effect Warning from 1983 
<https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983>*
By soarbird
While cleaning out my office the other day, I found a yellowed newspaper 
clipping with the headline, "Greenhouse effect viewed with alarm."    
The article was dated Oct. 18, 1983:

    WASHINGTON  (AP) --  A potentially catastrophic warming of the Earth
    will start in the 1990s, disrupting food production and raising
    coastal waters as the polar icecaps melt, the federal government
    said in a report released today.
    The study by the Environmental Protection Agency said the climatic
    changes from the so-called "greenhouse effect" are unavoidable and
    warned that the United States and other countries must begin
    searching now for ways to mitigate the impact.
    The report, titled "Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?" concluded
    that even as drastic and unlikely a step as a total ban on coal
    burning would delay by only 15 years a 3.6 degree increase in
    average worldwide temperatures.
    While other government studies have warned that the greenhouse
    effect was a potential problem, the EPA report is the first to state
    with certainty that the warming will occur no matter what.
    The EPA study is based on earlier projections by the National
    Academy of Sciences that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the air -
    which could occur by the middle of the next century - would raise
    present world temperatures within a range of 2.7 degrees to 8.1
    degrees Fahrenheit.
    This result is known as the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide
    acts like the glass in a greenhouse allowing the sun’s warming rays
    to reach earth but not allowing the heat to escape.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983

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