[TheClimate.Vote] September 11, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Sep 11 11:33:12 EDT 2017
/September 11, 2017/
*
Current Irma reports <http://www.weather.gov/>
*Irma will bring very heavy rain and damaging winds to the Southeast U.S
on Monday
Irma continues to move north through Florida and is expected to be
centered in southern Georgia by Monday afternoon. Along Irma's path,
widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected in parts of
Florida, Georgia and South Carolina with isolated locations approaching
20 inches of rain. In addition to heavy rain, damaging winds and short
lived tornadoes are expected. Read More > http://www.weather.gov/
*(YouTube video clips) Climate & Extreme Weather News #65 (Hurricane
Irma Update) <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6soeAQx9ps>*
More news & footage from St Martin, the British Virgin Islands, Turks &
Caicos, Haiti, The Bahamas, Cuba and Florida.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6soeAQx9ps
FCC Federal Communications Commission
*Communications Status Report - Irma <https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/>*
The Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau (PSHSB) learns the status
of each Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) through the filings of 911
Service Providers in the Disaster Information Reporting System (DIRS),
through reporting done to the FCC's Public Safety Support Center (PSSC),
coordination with state 911 Administrators and, if necessary, individual
PSAPs.
September 10th
*Hurricane Irma Communications Status Report for Sept. 10*
Released Date: 09/10/2017
Description: .
*Documents:*
PDF : DOC-346634A1.pdf
<https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346634A1.pdf>
Text : DOC-346634A1.txt
<https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346634A1.txt>
* 9-11-17 Note: report data is now publicly available on a new server
https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/ *
<https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/>*
*Tropical Storm Harvey takes out 911 centers, cell towers, and cable
networks
<https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/>*
148,000 Internet, TV, and phone customers lost service in storm's wake.
/(on 8-28) / In 55 Texas and Louisiana counties that are part of the
disaster area, 320 out of 7,804 cell sites were down as of yesterday at
11am EDT, according to the FCC's latest summary published yesterday
<https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346369A1.pdf>. That's
4.1 percent across the area, but in a few Texas counties the cell
blackouts affected more than 80 percent of cell sites.
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/
Last available report for Harvey:
https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346369A1.pdf
*(opinion) Climate Change: When the Military Makes More Sense Than the
Politicians
<https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/10/climate-change-when-military-makes-more-sense-politicians>*
Maybe the generals can be our Paul Revere's. Maybe.
...the biggest threat our species has faced in 10 thousand years, is
global warming and the military are again out front. They don't call it
a hoax. In the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review they call the dramatic
climate change "an accelerant of instability" and a "threat multiplier."
In October 2015 three former defense secretaries joined other experts
saying the climate change is "shaping a world that is more unstable,
resource-constrained, violent, and disaster-prone."
President Trump calls anthropogenic global warming "a hoax." Maybe
his generals could sit him down and give him a little primer on this
epochal threat to planetary security. We have had 378 months of
above average temperatures. That's no hoax. Scientists say Arctic
ice is in "a death spiral." That's no hoax. People fish off
Bangladesh in what was once a busy market before rising seas claimed
it. That's no hoax. MIT professor Alan Lightman reports: "Due to
irreversible erosion, California has been losing its coastline at
the rate of eight inches per year." A home that was thirty feet from
a cliff overlooking the Pacific is now three feet from the edge,
poised for the plunge. That's no hoax. Temperatures rose in Iraq and
Kuwait to 129 F in July 2016 and to 112 F in parts of France and
Italy in August 2017. That's no hoax. "For every degree Celsius that
temperature rises, agricultural scientists calculate, wheat yields
drop 10 percent in the Earth's hotter midriff," as Alan Weisman
reports in his tellingly entitled book Countdown. That's no hoax.
Environmental refugees no longer come only from island states like
the Maldives and Tuvalu and from Bangladesh. They come from Houston
and will be coming from inundated cities on our coasts. On top of
all that we are awakening the sleeping giant in the earth. As
vulcanologist Bill McGuire says changing climate triggers
earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, unleashing forces that make
our destructive power seem puny. And that is coming and that is no
hoax. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, energized by the heated waters of
the sea, are portents of a "new normal." The records they are
breaking are not a hoax.
When we are scared we can act. We got scared of small pox and an
international effort ended it. We got really scared with the shrinkage
of the ozone over Antartica and we responded internationally. In World
War II, the United States stoked by fear transformed its economy and its
industrial production in a matter of months.
We need fear. Big fear. Green fear. Maybe the generals can be our Paul
Revere's. Maybe.
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/10/climate-change-when-military-makes-more-sense-politicians
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
*Global Warming and Hurricanes
<https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/>*
An Overview of Current Research Results
Last Revised: Aug. 30, 2017
*Summary Statement*
Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and Climate Warming
Recent Relevant GFDL Papers and Animations
WMO Expert Team 2010 Assessment of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Early GFDL Research on Global Warming and Hurricanes
Related links
*1. Summary Statement*
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the
following:
- Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane
activity or global tropical cyclone activity?
- What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st
century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC
models?
In this review, we address these questions in the context of published
research findings. We will first present the main conclusions and then
follow with some background discussion of the research that leads to
these conclusions. The main conclusions are:
*Likelihood Statements*
The terminology here for likelihood statements generally follows the
conventions used in the IPCC AR4, i.e., for the assessed likelihood of
an outcome or result:
Very Likely: > 90%,
Likely: > 66%
More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%
It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly
greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a
detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone
activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes
that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or
observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g.,
aerosol effects on regional climate).
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause
tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11%
according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change
would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive
potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next
century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense
tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially
larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm
intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected
despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of
all tropical cyclones.
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause
tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than
present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for
rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center...
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
*An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
<http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract>*
Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huberb
Abstract
Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often
assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here
we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such
adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW,
is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds
31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should
induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of
metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it
would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C,
calling the habitability of some regions into question. With
11–12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the
majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual
warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One
implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate
change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be
narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian
fossil record.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract
*Volcanic Eruptions Triggered Past Global Warming Event, Study Finds
<https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/09/01/volcanic-eruptions-triggered-past-global-warming-event-study-finds/#5dbe2ffc5f00>*
Millions of years ago Earth was on a path similar to today, increasing
carbon dioxide leading to a warming planet and many significant system
wide changes. In a recent study published in Nature, a team of
scientists revealed the mechanism through which the Earth experienced
one of the fastest warming events on record.
Step back in time 56 million years ago to the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal
Maximum (PETM) and you would be in an analogous world as today.
...it was clear to geoscientists that the warming event was due to
excess release of carbon dioxide and/or methane into the atmosphere.
However, what remained unclear is what mechanism drove the sudden
increase in greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Now, scientists have determined it was likely a gradual release of
carbon dioxide through active North American volcanic eruptions.
Using a similar technique the research team discovered is that while the
PETM is an analog for the modern day, it's not a perfect match. This is
because humans have emitted carbon dioxide at far faster rates than what
the Earth has potentially ever experienced. In addition, the quantities
of carbon dioxide show some differences. While increased volcanic
activity increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it did so over the
course of thousands of years, as opposed to hundreds of years in the
modern case. The more rapid the change, the harder it is for species
(such as humans) to adapt to the changing planet.
However, the total amount of carbon dioxide released during the PETM was
more than 30 times the amount released from all fossil fuels burned to
date. Hence, we find that the release of carbon dioxide during the PETM
was slower and more gradual, but much larger in ultimate magnitude.
Unfortunately, there are no good examples of releasing the amount of
carbon dioxide we have in such a short amount of time and how that will
impact species on Earth. A fairly precarious position to find ourselves
in.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/09/01/volcanic-eruptions-triggered-past-global-warming-event-study-finds/#5dbe2ffc5f00
*Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the
Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
<http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7669/full/nature23646.html>*
/(Abstract)/
The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum1, 2 (PETM) was a global warming
event that occurred about 56 million years ago, and is commonly thought
to have been driven primarily by the destabilization of carbon from
surface sedimentary reservoirs such as methane hydrates3. However, it
remains controversial whether such reservoirs were indeed the source of
the carbon that drove the warming1, 3, 4, 5. Resolving this issue is key
to understanding the proximal cause of the warming, and to quantifying
the roles of triggers versus feedbacks. Here we present boron isotope
data-a proxy for seawater pH-that show that the ocean surface pH was
persistently low during the PETM. We combine our pH data with a paired
carbon isotope record in an Earth system model in order to reconstruct
the unfolding carbon-cycle dynamics during the event6, 7. We find strong
evidence for a much larger (more than 10,000 petagrams)-and, on average,
isotopically heavier-carbon source than considered previously8, 9. This
leads us to identify volcanism associated with the North Atlantic
Igneous Province10, 11, rather than carbon from a surface reservoir, as
the main driver of the PETM. This finding implies that climate-driven
amplification of organic carbon feedbacks probably played only a minor
part in driving the event. However, we find that enhanced burial of
organic matter seems to have been important in eventually sequestering
the released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system12.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7669/full/nature23646.html
Capital Weather Gang*
****The most interesting and scary things we've seen on social media
during Hurricane Irma
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/the-most-interesting-and-scary-things-weve-seen-on-social-media-during-hurricane-irma/?tid=pm_local_pop&utm_term=.f32fa6058ab0#comments>**
(/see the flamingos/!)
*We've seen some incredible things from Hurricane Irma, thanks to social
media. From first-hand accounts of the devastation in the Caribbean to
landfall in the Keys, the medium has proved invaluable. Here are some of
the most interesting things we've seen come across our feeds.
We will update this post through the duration of Hurricane Irma.
Flamingos moved to safety as fears grow for animals caught in Hurricane
Irma - A flock of flamingos – officially called a flamboyance – have
been filmed walking in an orderly line to safety from the danger of
Hurricane Irma in Tampa.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/the-most-interesting-and-scary-things-weve-seen-on-social-media-during-hurricane-irma/
*This Day in Climate History September 11, 2016
<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/temperatures-rise-and-were-cooked.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
September 11, 2016:
New York Times columnist Nick Kristof discusses the impact of
human-caused climate change on the human body.
..clever new working paper/(s) /
<http://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications>by Jisung Park,
a Ph.D. student in economics at Harvard, compared the performances
of New York City students on 4.6 million exams with the day's
temperature. He found that students taking a New York State Regents
exam on a 90-degree day have a 12 percent greater chance of failing
than when the temperature is 72 degrees.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/temperatures-rise-and-were-cooked.html
https://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications In Preparation:
Park, Jisung. "Hot Temperature, Human Capital, and Adaptation to Climate
Change (Job Market Paper)." Unpublished Manuscript, Harvard University
Economics Department, In Preparation.Abstract paper_nyc_jpark.pdf
Park, Jisung. "Will We Adapt? Temperature Shocks, Labor Productivity and
Climate Adaptation in the United States." Harvard Project on Climate
Agreements Working Papers, In Preparation. Publisher's VersionAbstract
will_we_adapt_-_jpark_4-3-17.pdf
Park, Jisung, and Geoffrey Heal. "Feeling the Heat: Temperature,
Physiology, and the Wealth of Nations (revise and resubmit at Journal of
the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists)." NBER Working
Papers , In Preparation, w19725. Publisher's VersionAbstract
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