[TheClimate.Vote] April 4, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Apr 4 10:46:54 EDT 2018
/April 4, 2018/
[slip sliding away]
*Antarctica 'gives ground to the ocean'
<http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43627673>*
By Jonathan Amos - BBC Science Correspondent - 3 April 2018
Scientists now have their best view yet of where Antarctica is giving up
ground to the ocean as some of its biggest glaciers are eaten away from
below by warm water.
A photo of the surface expression of the grounding line on Antarctica's
Rutford ice stream. The position is not always so obvious
<https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/304/cpsprodpb/7E47/production/_100672323_rutford_glacier2.jpg>
Researchers using Europe's Cryosat radar spacecraft have traced the
movement of grounding lines around the continent.
These are the places where the fronts of glaciers that flow from the
land into the ocean start to lift and float.
The new study reveals an area of seafloor the size of Greater London
that was previously in contact with ice is now free of it...
Elsewhere on the continent, 10% of marine-terminating glaciers around
the Antarctic Peninsula are above the 25m/yr threshold; whereas in East
Antarctic, only 3% are.
The significant stand-out in the East is Totten Glacier, whose grounding
line is retreating at a rate of 154m/yr.
Overall, for the entire continent, 10.7% of the grounding line retreated
faster than 25m/yr, while 1.9% advanced faster than the threshold.
One fascinating number to come out of the study is that grounding lines
in general are seen to retreat 110m for every metre of thinning on the
fastest flowing glaciers. This relationship will constrain computer
models that try to simulate future change on the continent.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43627673
[restrictive supply-side (RSS) climate policies]
*It's time to think seriously about cutting off the supply of fossil
fuels
<https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/3/17187606/fossil-fuel-supply>*
A new paper makes the case for supply-side climate policy.
By David Roberts - @drvox - david at vox.com - Apr 3, 2018
There is a bias in climate policy shared by analysts, politicians, and
pundits across the political spectrum so common it is rarely remarked
upon. To put it bluntly: Nobody, at least nobody in power, wants to
restrict the supply of fossil fuels.
Policies that choke off fossil fuels at their origin - shutting down
mines and wells; banning new ones; opting against new pipelines,
refineries, and export terminals - have been embraced by climate
activists
<https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/01/25/fossil-free-fast-climate-resistance-game-plan-2018>,
picking up steam with the Keystone pipeline protests
<https://www.vox.com/2015/11/8/9690654/keystone-climate-activism> and
the recent direct action of the Valve Turners
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/magazine/afraid-climate-change-prison-valve-turners-global-warming.html>.
But they are looked upon with some disdain by the climate
intelligentsia, who are united in their belief that such strategies are
economically suboptimal and politically counterproductive.
Now a pair of economists has offered a cogent argument
<https://go.redirectingat.com/?id=66960X1516588&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs10584-018-2162-x>
that the activists are onto something - that restrictive supply-side
(RSS) climate policies have unique economic and political benefits and
deserve a place alongside carbon prices and renewable energy supports in
the climate policy toolkit.
- - - - - - -
*The four quadrants of climate policy*
Climate policies can apply to the supply side (production of fossil
fuels) or the demand side (consumption of FF), and they can be
restrictive or supportive. That creates a grid with four quadrants:
1. Restrictive supply side: policies that cut off FF supply,
including declining quotas, supply taxes, and subsidy reductions
2. Restrictive demand side: policies that restrict demand for FF,
including carbon prices and declining emission caps
3. Supportive supply side: policies that support the supply of FF
alternatives, like renewable energy subsidies and mandates
4. Supportive demand side: policies that support demand for FF
alternatives, like subsidies for purchase of energy-efficiency
appliances or favorable government procurement policies
- - - - - -
It's time to apologize to activists and make fossil fuel supply
restrictions part of the climate policy toolkit
- - - - - -
Yes, at this point, everyone gets it: An economy-wide, steadily rising,
fuel- and technology-agnostic price on carbon is the optimal policy. But
we don't live in an optimal world, so yacking on about it isn't much
help. We live in this world, where a variety of political constraints
means that no such policy has passed or seems likely to pass anytime
soon. In this world, limited (thus suboptimal) demand-side policies need
supplementing.
In this world, it makes sense to draw on all four quadrants - to use the
portfolio approach taken for granted in so many other areas of policy.
Climate change is a big problem. We can't afford to leave any tools in
the toolbox.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/3/17187606/fossil-fuel-supply
- - - - - - -
[Academic source study]
*Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case
for restrictive supply-side climate policies
<https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2162-x>*
Authors Fergus Green, Richard Denniss
We might as reasonably dispute whether it is the upper or the under
blade of a pair of scissors that cuts a piece of paper, as whether
value is governed by utility [demand] or cost of production
[supply]. Alfred Marshall, Principles of Economics (1890, bk. III, 28)
*Abstract*
Proponents of climate change mitigation face difficult choices about
which types of policy instrument(s) to pursue. The literature on the
comparative evaluation of climate policy instruments has focused
overwhelmingly on economic analyses of instruments aimed at
restricting demand for greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon
taxes and cap-and-trade schemes) and, to some extent, on instruments
that support the supply of or demand for substitutes for
emissions-intensive goods, such as renewable energy. Evaluation of
instruments aimed at restricting the upstream supply of commodities
or products whose downstream consumption causes greenhouse gas
emissions-such as fossil fuels-has largely been neglected in this
literature. Moreover, analyses that compare policy instruments using
both economic and political (e.g. political "feasibility" and
"feedback") criteria are rare. This article aims to help bridge both
of these gaps. Specifically, the article demonstrates that
restrictive supply-side policy instruments (targeting fossil fuels)
have numerous characteristic economic and political advantages over
otherwise similar restrictive demand-side instruments (targeting
greenhouse gases). Economic advantages include low administrative
and transaction costs, higher abatement certainty (due to the
relative ease of monitoring, reporting and verification),
comprehensive within-sector coverage, some advantageous
price/efficiency effects, the mitigation of infrastructure "lock-in"
risks, and mitigation of the "green paradox". Political advantages
include the superior potential to mobilise public support for
supply-side policies, the conduciveness of supply-side policies to
international policy cooperation, and the potential to bring
different segments of the fossil fuel industry into a coalition
supportive of such policies. In light of these attributes,
restrictive supply-side policies squarely belong in the climate
policy "toolkit".
This article is part of a Special Issue on 'Fossil Fuel Supply and
Climate Policy' edited by Harro van Asselt and Michael Lazarus.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2162-x
- - - - -
[Opinion 30 second video]
*Fossil Fuels Need to Stay in the Ground
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAyAIM688os>*
Climate One - Published on Apr 3, 2018
Executive Director and Air Pollution Control Officer of the Sacramento
Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, Alberto Ayala talks about
the need to ban combustion engines everywhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAyAIM688os
[CBC News]
*Paris goal too little to avoid worst effects of climate change,
scientists say
<http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/the-national-today-newsletter-climate-change-homicide-rate-syria-rebels-1.4592951>*
Jonathon Gatehouse · CBC News · Posted: Apr 02, 2018 2:09 PM ET | Last
Updated: 10 hours ago
There is*no escape*from*global warming*.
That's the conclusion of a series of*pessimistic new studies*released
Monday in the journalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119>, where the
world's top scientists determined that the*threshold for catastrophic
climate change*is much*lower*than previously believed.
The*Paris Agreement*plan to limit the global temperature rise to 2 C -a
modest goal that is still well out of reach
<https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/new-auditors-general-report-says-canada-is-currently-way-off-track-to-meeting-paris-agreement-climate-action-goals/98307>-
*will not be enough*to help the planet avoid the worst ravages of rising
oceans and changing weather, the scientists concluded, provoking food
shortages and mass migrations.
While a *two-degree*limit would be better than Earth's current
trajectory - at least a 3 C rise - the*negative effects *would still be
devastating
<https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/two-degrees-no-longer-seen-global-warming-guardrail-studies-doc-13k38n2>,
with a marked increase in*destructive storms, extreme heat
waves*and*long-term droughts*.
Among the*new predictions*for the 2 C scenario:
* A*half-metre rise in oceans*by 2100 and at least an*additional
half-metre*by 2300, leading to*widespread flooding*in the "highly
vulnerable" low-lying deltas and cities, where close to*one billion
people* live.
* Increased food insecurity
<https://phys.org/news/2018-04-climate-food-insecurity.html>because
of*"significant changes" **in regional temperatures *and water
cycles, with*India, Bangladesh, Brazil, Oman*and*Saudi Arabia*at the
greatest risk.
* A*13 per cent drop in GDP per person*, on average, by 2100, as the
world is forced to reckon with the spiralling costs of climate change.
* *Pernicious droughts*, especially in southern Africa and South
America, where the water flow in the Amazon could decrease 25 per cent.
* *Heightened losses*of plant and animal*biodiversity*and*shrinking
supplies*of*fresh water*.
As a result, thejournal is calling for a downward revision
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20180066>of
Paris target to a*1.5 C global rise*- an increase that will still result
in devastation, but just not as much.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/the-national-today-newsletter-climate-change-homicide-rate-syria-rebels-1.4592951
- - - - - -
[Source: Royal Society Publishing]
*Theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social
challenges for a warming world of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial
levels' *compiled and edited by Dann Mitchell, Myles R Allen, Jim W
Hall, Benito Mueller, Lavanya Rajamani and Corinne Le Quéré
13 May 2018; volume 376, issue 2119
Abstract
The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was
adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more
ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated,
implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been
under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a
multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not
only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science
community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers,
politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start
cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's
Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary
conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for
science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers,
opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations
within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning
the Paris Agreement.
This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement:
understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of
1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels'.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119
- - - - -
[Table of contents]
*Theme issue contents*
ARTICLES
*
You have access
Research article:
The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris
Agreement's temperature goal
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160458>
Lavanya Rajamani,Jacob Werksman
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160458;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0458.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Opinion piece:
Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble
possible
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20170105>
Henry Shue
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20170105;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2017.0105.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas
balance' in the Paris Agreement
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160445>
J. Fuglestvedt,J. Rogelj,R. J. Millar,M. Allen,O. Boucher,M. Cain,P.
M. Forster,E. Kriegler,D. Shindell
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160445;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0445.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Review article:
Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger
linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160444>
Luis Gomez-Echeverri
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160444;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0444.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C: a tale of
turning around in no time?
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160457>
Elmar Kriegler,Gunnar Luderer,Nico Bauer,Lavinia
Baumstark,Shinichiro Fujimori,Alexander Popp,Joeri Rogelj,Jessica
Strefler,Detlef P. van Vuuren
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160457;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0457.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
The utility of the historical record for assessing the
transient climate response to cumulative emissions
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160449>
Richard J. Millar,Pierre Friedlingstein
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160449;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0449.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
Building equity in: strategies for integrating equity into
modelling for a 1.5 degrees C world
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160461>
Klinsky Sonja,Winkler Harald
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160461;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0461.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and
climate response
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20170263>
Jason A. Lowe,Daniel Bernie
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20170263;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2017.0263.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global
temperatures at 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C warming
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160460>
Felix Pretis,Moritz Schwarz,Kevin Tang,Karsten Haustein,Myles R. Allen
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160460;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0460.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0
degrees C: implications for coastal areas
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160448>
Robert J. Nicholls,Sally Brown,Philip Goodwin,Thomas Wahl,Jason
Lowe,Martin Solan,Jasmin A. Godbold,Ivan D. Haigh,Daniel
Lincke,Jochen Hinkel,Claudia Wolff,Jan-Ludolf Merkens
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160448;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0448.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and
vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 degrees C
and 2 degrees C global warming with a higher-resolution
global climate model
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160452>
Richard A. Betts,Lorenzo Alfieri,Catherine Bradshaw,John Caesar,Luc
Feyen,Pierre Friedlingstein,Laila Gohar,Aristeidis Koutroulis,Kirsty
Lewis,Catherine Morfopoulos,Lamprini Papadimitriou,Katy J.
Richardson,Ioannis Tsanis,Klaus Wyser
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160452;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0452.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2
degrees C to a 1.5 degrees C target
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160456>
Pete Smith,Jeff Price,Amy Molotoks,Rachel Warren,Yadvinder Malhi
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160456;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0456.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use
forcing at 1.5 degrees C
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160450>
Sonia I. Seneviratne,Richard Wartenburger,Benoit P. Guillod,Annette
L. Hirsch,Martha M. Vogel,Victor Brovkin,Detlef P. van
Vuuren,Nathalie Schaller,Lena Boysen,Katherine V. Calvin,Jonathan
Doelman,Peter Greve,Petr Havlik,Florian Humpenöder,Tamas
Krisztin,Daniel Mitchell,Alexander Popp,Keywan Riahi,Joeri
Rogelj,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Jana Sillmann,Elke Stehfest
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160450;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Research article:
Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and
regional scales for 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C assessments
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160455>
Cynthia Rosenzweig,Alex C. Ruane,John Antle,Joshua Elliott,Muhammad
Ashfaq,Ashfaq Ahmad Chatta,Frank Ewert,Christian Folberth,Ibrahima
Hathie,Petr Havlik,Gerrit Hoogenboom,Hermann Lotze-Campen,Dilys S.
MacCarthy,Daniel Mason-D'Croz,Erik Mencos Contreras,Christoph
Müller,Ignacio Perez-Dominguez,Meridel Phillips,Cheryl Porter,Rubi
M. Raymundo,Ronald D. Sands,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Roberto O.
Valdivia,Hugo Valin,Keith Wiebe
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160455;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0455.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
Reaching a 1.5 degrees C target: socio-technical challenges
for a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity systems
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160462>
Nick Eyre,Sarah J. Darby,Philipp Grünewald,Eoghan McKenna,Rebecca Ford
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160462;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0462.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Review article:
Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and
storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160447>
R. Stuart Haszeldine,Stephanie Flude,Gareth Johnson,Vivian Scott
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160447;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0447.Published 2 April 2018
*
Open Access
Opinion piece:
Towards legitimacy of the solar geoengineering research
enterprise
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160459>
Peter C. Frumhoff,Jennie C. Stephens
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160459;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0459.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for
meeting the 1.5 degrees C Paris target
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160454>
Douglas G. MacMartin,Katharine L. Ricke,David W. Keith
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20160454;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2016.0454.Published 2 April 2018
*
You have access
Research article:
Can 'loss and damage' carry the load?
<http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20170070>
Robert R. M. Verchick
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A2018376
20170070;DOI:10.1098/rsta.2017.0070.Published 2 April 2018
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119
[Scientific American]
*Bats Are Migrating Earlier, and It Could Wreak Havoc on Farming
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bats-are-migrating-earlier-and-it-could-wreak-havoc-on-farming/>*
Climate change may be partially to blame for the creatures' shifting
schedules
By Inga Vesper on April 2, 2018
This trend creates a risky situation in which bats may not find enough
food for themselves and their young, as the insects they prey on may not
yet have arrived or hatched. If bat colonies shrink as a result of this
schedule snafu, their pest control effect could fall out of sync with
crop-growing seasons-potentially causing hefty losses, scientists say.
"If the whole system becomes unreliable, then it will be a big, big
problem for agriculture," says Jennifer Krauel, a bat biologist at the
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, who was not involved in the new
research. "I don't think the bats will go away entirely, but even a
reduced colony size will have an effect."...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bats-are-migrating-earlier-and-it-could-wreak-havoc-on-farming/
[video Satire ]
*Why Trump's EPA Eliminated Obama-Era Fuel Efficiency Rules
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uTpkZ5H8Qg>*
http://headsofstate.tv
President Donald Trump explains why his Environmental Protection Agency
rolled back Barack Obama's fuel efficiency standards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uTpkZ5H8Qg
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/04/05/get-facts-how-climate-change-can-affect-your-health>*This
Day in Climate History - April 4, 2016
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/04/05/get-facts-how-climate-change-can-affect-your-health>
- from D.R. Tucker*
The Washington Post reports:
"More deaths from extreme heat. Longer allergy seasons. Increasingly
polluted air and water. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks
spreading farther and faster. Those are among the health risks that
could be exacerbated by global warming coming decades, the Obama
administration warned in a new report Monday."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/04/as-the-climate-changes-risks-to-human-health-will-accelerate-obama-administration-says/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/04/05/get-facts-how-climate-change-can-affect-your-health
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