[TheClimate.Vote] August 1, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Aug 1 12:07:14 EDT 2018
/August 1, 2018/
[photos]
*California's Deadly Carr Fire is So Large, It Has Created Its Own
Weather System (PHOTOS)
<https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/2018-08-01-carr-fire-california-photos>*
https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/2018-08-01-carr-fire-california-photos
- - - -
[Carr fire from a helicopter, aerial video shot during daylight hours ]
*A view of the massive Carr Fire "Firenado" from the sky
<https://www.facebook.com/ActiveNorcal/videos/1727964197241435/>*
https://www.facebook.com/ActiveNorcal/videos/1727964197241435/
- - - -
[new lexicon: firenado or firewhirl]
*What is a Firenado?? | The Weather Channel
<https://weather.com/news/trending/video/what-is-a-firenado>*
https://weather.com/news/trending/video/what-is-a-firenado
- - -- video - -
*"Firenado" seen in California wildfire is a scientific phenomenon
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/firenado-california-wildfire-phenomenon-seen-amid-chaos-fire-vortex/>*
"Firetornadoes" are a real phenomenon. Intense fires can whip up
towering spirals.
"You've got a lot of heat being generated right now around this Carr
Fire and it's all from the fire itself, but there's a second source,"
said Lonnie Quinn, chief weathercaster for CBS New York.
The ambient air temperature in the area was close to 110 degrees, "so
that air is super fast rising into the atmosphere," Quinn said.
"You need to think of this as the air being a solid, and if you're
taking a chunk of that air, superheating it and rising into the air,
it's leaving a void below it," he said.
As more and more air gets pulled in, it begins to rotate. The more air
that gets pulled in, the faster the air swirls and the taller it gets.
"Firenados" also pick up burning embers, ash and flammable debris and
extend hundreds or thousands of feet in the air. Those embers can then
spread out, jumping fire lines and creating new fires away from the center.
A typical "firenado" is only a few feet wide and 100 feet tall but can
easily grow up to 10 times that size and have winds up to 100 miles per
hour.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/firenado-california-wildfire-phenomenon-seen-amid-chaos-fire-vortex/
- - - - -
[shock but no surprise]
*'Climate Change...In Real Time': California's Frightening Fires Are the
Nightmare Scientists Long Predicted
<https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/07/31/climate-changein-real-time-californias-frightening-fires-are-nightmare-scientists>*
Wildfires ravaging the state have "spawned bizarre pyrotechnics, from
firenados to towering pyrocumulus clouds that evoke a nuclear detonation."
by Jessica Corbett, staff writer
Many argue that in addition to improving wildfire management and
emergency response tactics, preparing for the future means ramping up
efforts to dramatically slash greenhouse gas emissions to limit global
warming.
In a letter to California Gov. Jerry Brown-a Democrat known for taking
bold climate action but also, in some cases, not going far enough-five
Nobel Peace Laureates acknowledged the "devastating" fires and called
for the state "to become the first major fossil fuel producer to begin a
managed and just transition off oil and gas production, in turn
protecting the climate, citizens on the front lines of extraction, and
setting a new direction for global climate action."
"As climate change creates its own weather," Oil Change International's
Andy Rowell wrote Monday, "how many more people have to die, how many of
our children do we have to bury, or how many brave firefighters put
their lives in danger, before society acts decisively?"
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/07/31/climate-changein-real-time-californias-frightening-fires-are-nightmare-scientists
[WBUR Audio]
*Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps The Globe
<http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2018/07/26/extreme-heat-wave-sweeps-the-globe>*
With Jane Clayson - July 26, 2018 - 47mins
A dangerous and deadly heat wave grips the globe. We'll look at where
and why it's happening.
http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2018/07/26/extreme-heat-wave-sweeps-the-globe
- - -
[From above: excerpts 27 min YouTube]
*PODCAST Experts Discuss the ongoing Global Heat
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySVh2CBQKFA>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySVh2CBQKFA
[Summary 2017 for all weather forecasters]
*State of the Climate - American Meteorological Society
<https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american%20-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/>*
Download the international, peer-reviewed publication released each
summer, the State of ... of the global climate published as a supplement
to the Bulletin of the American:
The report and other material will be available online at
***https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/offsite*
The report, compiled by NOAA's Center for Weather and Climate at the
National Centers for Environmental Information is based on contributions
from scientists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on
global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data
collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located
on land, water, ice, and in space.
[524 authors from 65 countries; 19 editors on 3 continents]
*State of the Climate in 2017*
This is the 28th issuance of the annual assessment now known as State of
the Climate, published in the Bulletin since 1996. As a supplement to
the Bulletin, its foremost function is to document the status and
trajectory of many components of the climate system. However, as a
series, the report also documents the status and trajectory of our
capacity and commitment to observe the climate system.
Executive Summary PDF
<https://www.ametsoc.net/sotc2017/SoC2017_ExecSumm.pdf>https://www.ametsoc.net/sotc2017/SoC2017_ExecSumm.pdf
Media Call Slides
<https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/state-of-the-climate-in-2017/state-of-the-climate-2017-media-call-slides/>
https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/state-of-the-climate-in-2017/state-of-the-climate-2017-media-call-slides/
- -
*La Nina*
The state of ENSO provides important context throughout the report at
several scales
2017 ended in weak La Nina conditions
- *
**Greenhouse Gases*
Global averages of longlived greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2017
- *Carbon dioxide (CO2)*: 405.0 ppm, an increase of 2.2 ppm from 2016
- *Methane (CH4):* 1849.7 ppb, a 6.9 ppb increase since 2016
- *Nitrous oxide (N2O):* 329.8ppb, a 0.9 ppb increase since 2016
Total GHG “forcing” has increased 41% since 1990
-
*Globally Averaged Surface Temperature*
2nd warmest (one dataset) or 3rd warmest (three datasets) onrecord
- Largely supported by reanalyses (2nd warmest)
Approx. 0.38 to 0.48degreeC warmer than the 1981-2010 average
Warmest non-El Nino year on record
2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 are the four warmest years on record
*General trends indicate increasing water vapor and slightly decreasing
relative humidity*
- -
*One recurring theme: extreme precipitation
*In addition to documenting extreme events on every inhabited continent,
sidebars focused on methods to characterize extreme precipitation.*
*- -
*Tropical Cyclones*
85 named storms globally - Slightly above average of 82
North Atlantic Basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy index roughly 2.4 times
its median value
Three catastrophic major hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, Maria
Other basins near or below normal
- -
*Global Sea Surface Temperature Warm in 2017*
Global SST in 2017 cooled by 0.04degreeC relative to 2016 record high
Difference between 2017 and 2016 is within yearly confidence limits of
±0.06degreeC
Small drop probably related to tropical Pacific cooling after 2015/16 El
Nino
Warming trend 2000-17 for ERSSTv5 0.17degreeC per decade
- -*
**Record High Global Ocean Heat Content in 2017*
Global Ocean Heat Content from 0-700 m record in 2017 in all six
analyses (top panel)
Close agreement among estimates since Argo array of robotic floats
achieved global coverage circa 2005
700-2000 m ocean also steadily warming
2000-6000 m ocean also shows warming trend
Full depth warming trend 1993-2017 350 (±50) TW (around 18 times global
primary energy supply consumption rate for 2015)
- - *
**Record High Global Sea Level in 2017*
Global sea level record high in 2017, the sixth consecutive year
Global sea level 7.7 cm (3 inches) higher in 2017 than in 1993
Global sea level trend since 1993 3.1 cm (1.2 inches) per decade
Since 2005 2/3 of trend from increasing ocean mass & 1/3 from ocean warming
*Surface fluctuates, ocean warms more steadily, seas continue rise.*
*- -*
*Impacts: Global Oceans Chapter Sidebars*
Warm Sea Surface Temperatures: Unprecedented Three Years of Global Coral
Reef Bleaching 2014-17
Sea Level Rise: Nu`a Kai: Flooding in Hawaii Caused by a “Stack” of
Oceanographic Processes
- -
*Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Record Lows*
The March 2017 sea ice maximum was the lowest on record (1981-2017).
Ten of the lowest September minimum extents have occurred in the last 11
years.
Paleoclimate records indicate that the magnitude and sustained rate of
sea ice loss is unprecedented in the last 1,450 years.
- -
*Arctic Ocean Warming Seas and Delayed Freeze Up*
Record late autumn freeze up was delayed 1 month in the Pacific Arctic
Sector
The Beaufort, Chukchi and southern Barents Seas in 2017 were *3-4d egree
C warmer *than the 1982-2010 average
- -
*Arctic Land Permafrost Thaw and Wildland Fires*
Record high air temperatures in the North slope of Alaska correlate with
many 22-year record breaking permafrost temperatures
More than 410,000 acres were burned (63% of 2017 Alaska) in the Upper
Yukon Zone in North East Alaska
- -*
**Arctic Amplification and Midlatitude Weather Events*
The Arctic continues to warm at twice the rate of lower latitudes, *2017
was the 2nd warmest year *on record
A warmer Arctic influences midlatitudes
- -
*Link to Full Report and Today's Presentation:*
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/
https://www.ametsoc.org/sotc
https://www.ametsoc.org/climate
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/
[Oregon kids move forward]
*INDUSTRY ATTACK ON PORTLAND FOSSIL FUEL POLICY FAILS
<https://sustainable-economy.org/industry-attack-on-portland-fossil-fuel-policy-fails/>*
Oregon Supreme Court Declines Review, Leaving in Place Oregon Court of
Appeals Ruling in Favor of Portland's Fossil Fuel Ordinance
July 31, 2018 (Portland, Ore.) - Today, a coalition of public interest
groups celebrated news that opponents of Portland's fossil fuel
ordinance have failed in their efforts to overturn the City's landmark
law. In 2016, Portland's City Council voted unanimously to prohibit new
fossil fuel infrastructure such as oil and gas terminals. Last week, the
Oregon Supreme Court declined to review a January 2018 ruling by the
Oregon Court of Appeals that upheld the Constitutionality of Portland's
Fossil Fuel Terminal Zoning Amendments, dealing another blow to the
legal challenges brought by the Portland Business Alliance and the oil
industry...
"This is a major victory for the climate and our
communities...Industry couldn't even get its foot in the door of the
courtroom to try to overturn the City's landmark law. This sends a
powerful message to local communities that now is the time to take
action to protect our future."
"This is an important signal to other local governments that they can
protect their residents from the many dangers of the fossil fuel
industry," said Nicholas Caleb, the Staff Attorney at the Center for
Sustainable Economy. "This precedent will allow much greater creativity
from cities and counties that want to create safe, healthy, and
sustainable communities for their residents."
https://sustainable-economy.org/industry-attack-on-portland-fossil-fuel-policy-fails/
[Hawaii Sea Grant award video]
*Sea Level Rise and the Ala Wai Canal
<http://seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/sea-level-rise-and-the-ala-wai-canal/>*
http://seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/sea-level-rise-and-the-ala-wai-canal/
VOS4-10 Full Episode - Sea Level Rise and the Ala Wai Canal
Voice of the Sea TV - Published on Aug 2, 2017
In this episode, we head inland to take a look at how rising sea level
will affect our infrastructure, aquifers, and fresh water supplies.
Researchers from the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program and
the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology are using King
Tides as a window into future ocean conditions, which will have dramatic
effects on our island life.
https://youtu.be/1DWSXCy3-5U
[A Battleground in Mass Media - Video]
*The War on Science Presented by Shawn Otto
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NvHT-AmK4E>*
Lone Star College-Kingwood
Published on Mar 29, 2017
Shawn Otto Q & A: https://youtu.be/okV8VCdywNA
Shawn Otto has worked for years to get politicians to focus on and
debate the major science issues like climate change and to base policy
decisions on evidence, while working to get journalists to do a better
job of covering these important questions.
[propaganda https://youtu.be/4NvHT-AmK4E?t=46m27s]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NvHT-AmK4E
[Book excerpt]
*Thoughts on Climate Action From a Scientist Who Gave Up Flying
<https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/thoughts-climate-action-scientist-who-gave-flying>*
Peter Kalmus says each of us can do something to address warming
This is an excerpt from the new book *Being the Change: Live Well and
Spark a Climate Revolution* (New Society Publishers), by Peter Kalmus.
My path is straightforward: if fossil fuels cause global warming, and I
don't want global warming, then I should reduce my fossil fuel use.
Similarly, if I don't like conflict, killing, and wars, then I should
reduce my own addiction to anger and negativity...
- - - -
Why walk on this path?
I'm aware that the changes I'm making to my daily life will not solve
global warming or stave off global economic collapse. How could they?
We're rapidly approaching eight billion people on the planet, and I am
only one of them.
However, my actions do make me happier, and that's reason enough to do
them. I also suspect that, for most of us, individual and local-scale
actions are the most skillful means to effect global-scale change. This
is a paradox of scale. Our individual actions don't make much of an
immediate difference in the global response to our predicament, but they
are pieces in a vast puzzle. As more pieces get added, more people will
get excited by the emerging picture and begin to add their own pieces...
- - - - -
I know that I can change the world; indeed, I am changing the world.
What I can't do is save it.
That I have limits is a fact, and I accept it. I don't expect my changes
to have a big impact. (I don't expect anything, actually.) If what I do
has impact, I know this impact arises only from an existing resonance, a
resonance that grows through interacting with many other people in turn.
We are like water molecules in a wave: we simultaneously transmit the
wave and are moved by it. No one water molecule causes the wave, but
together an enormous number of water molecules carry the wave. It's all
of us together, carried by a resonance that will effect great change.
In other words, I operate from the story of the wave, not the story of
the hero.
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/thoughts-climate-action-scientist-who-gave-flying
[Business intelligence - 25 million people per year]
*Refugees are fleeing war and violence today, climate change tomorrow
<https://global.handelsblatt.com/opinion/refugees-fleeing-war-violence-today-climate-change-tomorrow-948310>*
People who believe climate change won't impact us here in Europe are
lying to themselves, writes E.ON's CEO Johannes Teyssen. It will force
more people to migrate to the continent.
By Johannnes Teyssen
Recently, the topic of refugees has dominated political debate and has
almost entirely eclipsed other issues, including that of climate policy,
where important decisions are pending until there is a strategic course
of action.
Political discourse, however, is overlooking just how closely both
subjects are entwined. Climate change is already influencing global
migration patterns today and will increasingly do so in the future...
- - - -
Climate change makes this vicious cycle even worse, leading to more heat
waves, more droughts, floods and extreme weather, especially in
developing countries. According to a University of Hamburg study for
Greenpeace, 25 million people a year on average are driven from their
homes by natural disasters
- - - -
Currently, in many regions, standalone solutions are the only viable
options. Take Tanzania for example. Climate change and its effects -
long-lasting droughts, floods and soil erosion - have long been a
reality. Crops rot or dry up because there are incessant problems
maintaining the water and energy supply. An E.ON sponsored startup has
set up an interesting project there that installs and operates small
power grids and solar panels with batteries in villages that used to
rely on inefficient and unreliable diesel generators.
This is a small project of many; all of them show how modern,
climate-friendly and predominately electric energy solutions can improve
the lives of people living in poorer countries. More of these solutions
are needed.
Anyone who thinks climate change will affect those of us living in
Europe, at best, in the distant future, is fooling themselves. Climate
change is already affecting our countries, and that includes the
mothers, fathers, sons and daughters who have fled its impact. However,
helping people in their homeland requires an effective, long-term
climate policy. Our industrialized world created these problems; we
cannot just duck out now that it is time to cope with them.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/opinion/refugees-fleeing-war-violence-today-climate-change-tomorrow-948310
*This Day in Climate History - August 1, 1988
<http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/wolcott200705> -
from D.R. Tucker*
August 1, 1988: Sacramento, California-based right-wing talk radio host
Rush Limbaugh begins his nationally syndicated program; over the next 30
years, Limbaugh would try to popularize the notion that climate science
is a "hoax."
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/wolcott200705
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