[TheClimate.Vote] August 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Aug 20 10:10:22 EDT 2018
/August 20, 2018/
[Cough, cough - I live in Seattle]
*'Smokestorm is imminent' for Puget Sound, says UW's Cliff Mass
<https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/smokestorm-is-imminent-for-puget-sound-says-uws-cliff-mass/281-585436225>*
The air is considered unhealthy for everyone, according to the Puget
Sound Clean Air Agency <http://www.pscleanair.org/>. They recommend
everyone to stay indoors as much as possible.
Smoky air has returned to Western Washington in a major way. The air is
now considered unhealthy for everyone, according to the Puget Sound
Clean Air Agency. They recommend everyone to stay indoors as much as
possible.
The National Weather Service issued anAir Quality Alert
<https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1031218710269157376> through 5
p.m. Wednesday. Unhealthy air is anticipated to stick around until mid-week.
The smoke even prompted ground delays up to 90 minutes at Sea-Tac
International Airport Sunday afternoon.
A 'smokestorm is imminent,' according to University of Washington
professor of Atmospheric Sciences Cliff Mass. He anticipates an
accelerated movement of smoke settling to the surface as the day goes on.
Mass explained the term 'smokestorm'
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/08/a-smokestorm-is-imminent-for-western.html?spref=fb&m=1
https://www.king5.com/video/news/smoky-skies-return-to-puget-sound/281-8225130
https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/smokestorm-is-imminent-for-puget-sound-says-uws-cliff-mass/281-585436225
[more smoke]
*How smoke from California wildfires made it to DC area
<https://wtop.com/local/2018/08/how-smoke-from-california-wildfires-made-it-to-dc-area/>*
By Liz Anderson
August 18, 2018
WASHINGTON - Smoke from at least three California wildfires is blowing
through the mid-Atlantic region, but lingering haze and scents likely
won't stick around for much longer.
"It's typically not something you see quite often around here," said
Brandon Fling, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
The jet stream, or strong upper level winds, steered the smoke to the
mid-Atlantic region, some 3,000 miles away from its origin, Fling said.
https://wtop.com/local/2018/08/how-smoke-from-california-wildfires-made-it-to-dc-area/
[methane from us]
*The US' hidden methane problem
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/08/13/us-methane-problem/>*
Unregulated, unnoticed coal mines across the US are leaking a potent
greenhouse gas with the same greenhouse effect as 13 million cars
(Climate Home News) - Across the US, a major, uncontrolled leak of a
potent greenhouse gas is going unregulated and largely unnoticed.
Climate Home News analysis of government data has identified roughly 300
active and 200 abandoned coal mines, which are the source of almost
one-tenth of US methane pollution.
Methane has 34 times the long-term warming effect of carbon dioxide and
accounts for 10 percent of US greenhouse gas emissions. Its emissions
from the oil and gas industry and the efforts of the Trump
administration to roll back regulations on them have been widely publicised.
- - - -
Meanwhile, U.S. coal mines released 60.5 MMTCO2e of methane in 2016,
with roughly the same warming impact as 13 million cars. Efforts to
control the problem are being hampered despite those with the technical
expertise claiming a whole industry could be built on capturing these
emissions and turning them into electricity.
- - - -
Data collected by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA),
shows Warrior Met Coal Mining's No 7 Mine in Alabama emits the most
methane of any mine in the US.
"The coal seams Warrior Met Coal mine contain high levels of methane
gas. Much of the gas is captured prior to, during and after active
mining operations and distributed into commercial pipelines," Warrior
spokesperson Bill Stanhouse said in an emailed statement. Even with
these efforts, the mine emits at least 262,700 cubic meters of methane
into the atmosphere per day.
The remainder of the top five methane-emitting coal mines, according to
MSHA's data, are:
Alliance Resource Partners' recently closed Pattiki mine in Illinois -
more than 113,300m3 per day
ERP Compliant Fuels' Pinnacle Mine in West Virginia - more than
111,700m3 per day
Sunrise Coal's Oaktown Fuels Mine No 1 in Indiana - more than 86,600m3
per day
Txoma Mining's P8 North mine in Oklahoma - more than 81,900m3 per day...
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/08/13/us-methane-problem/
[National Geographic]
*Permafrost May Thaw Faster Than Expected and Accelerate Climate Change
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/>*
"I think it's safe to say that things are happening faster than we were
expecting."
For example, scientists have long known that loss of sea ice and rising
temperatures will lead to more Arctic snow over time, which models are
able to incorporate. But those same simulations are far less reliable
when trying to track the cascading shifts in soil types, surface
vegetation, melting ice, and the flow of water that will come from
rising temperatures and all that snow, all of which could substantially
hasten permafrost thaw.
"The models can't handle those landscape-scale changes, all of the
processes that could lead to rapid change," says David Lawrence, a
permafrost modeler with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder. "And it's going to be a long time before they can."
By the time some changes are detected, a significant transition may be
underway, he says. That means the public and policymakers may not grasp
the real risks.
"Most models don't project major carbon releases until beyond 2100,"
Walter Anthony says. That may be the case. But it's also possible, she
says, that they "could actually happen in my children's lifetime - or my
own."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/
[Politico.eu does some science]
*Europe's freak weather, explained
<https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gobal-warming-freak-weather-explained/>*
Climate change is not only hiking up temperatures, but changing the
dynamics of weather itself.
By STEFAN RAHMSTORF
BERLIN - We've all become increasingly used to reports of extreme
weather over the past few years. But this summer's raft of dramatic
weather events is significant: Not only does it show what warming can
do, it points to the potential large-scale trouble that lurks in the
disruption of the planet's winds and ocean currents.
In the past few months alone, we've seen extreme heat in Western Europe,
Canada, Alaska, the western United States, Texas, Japan and Algeria,
which set a new temperature record for Africa. Greece, Scandinavia,
California and Siberia all suffered through drought and wildfires, while
Japan, the U.S., Europe and India were hit with devastating floods. The
human toll and harvest losses are still being tallied.
That global warming leads to more heat extremes is not rocket science
and has been confirmed by global data analysis. We're seeing five times
more monthly heat records - such as "hottest July on record in
California" - now than we would in a stable climate.
- - - -
But there is something more interesting going on here too.
It's not just that the weather is doing what it always does, except at a
higher temperature level. Rather, there is growing evidence that the
dynamics of weather itself are changing.
Let's take a look at a concrete example. In my home town Potsdam, near
Berlin - which boasts a high-quality weather station with uninterrupted
homogeneous data since 1893 - April was the warmest April since
measurements began, and May was the warmest May. Although June and July
did not set any new records - those were recorded in 2003 and 2006 -
they were also among the warmest. Just how extraordinary the current hot
weather anomaly really is can best be seen when looking at the period
between April and July.
We see a steady climate warming of around 2 degrees Celsius in the
smooth climate curve since 1980, in parallel to global warming but twice
as fast. This is typical of continental areas; ocean areas warm less due
to heat storage and evaporation. We also see that 2018 was a whopping
4.3 degrees above the average value of the first 30 years in which data
was measured, and nearly 2 degrees above the smoothed climate curve.
This is by far the largest outlier relative to the climate curve. What's
going on?
A naive way to estimate the contribution of climate change to the high
temperatures goes something like this: The smoothed curve shows the
effect of global warming, and the scattering of the grey bars around
this curve is the random variations of the weather. Accordingly,
slightly more than half of the 4.3 degrees would be due to global
warming, the rest to weather.
That's not a bad first estimate, *but it likely underestimates the
contribution of climate change*.
Not only is the current outlier by far the biggest, there is growing
evidence that the "rest of the weather" is not just random but has
already been altered by climate change too.
This is currently one of the hottest topics in climate research. The
basic idea is that the jet stream - a band of high winds around the
Northern Hemisphere that significantly influences our weather in the
mid-latitudes - is changing.
- - - -
This phenomenon has been confirmed by data: Researchers showed in 2015
that the jet stream has actually slowed down significantly in recent
decades and undulates more. The cause is probably the strong warming of
the Arctic, as the jet stream is driven by the temperature contrast
between the tropics and the Arctic. Because this temperature difference
is getting smaller and smaller, the jet stream is weakening and becoming
less stable.
The weaker summer circulation means fewer weather changes, so the
weather is becoming more persistent.
A certain wave pattern in the jet stream, meandering from north to
south, settles for a long time and brings heat and drought or continuous
rain, depending on where you are in this pattern. Such a persistent jet
stream pattern has played an important role in the weather extremes of
recent weeks, connecting the extremes around the Northern Hemisphere.
But the atmosphere is not the only player that can change its flow
patterns. The ocean circulation may also have played a role, in
particular the Gulf Stream System.
Researchers have shown that particularly cold surface water in the
subpolar North Atlantic favors summer heat in Europe, again by changing
the pattern of highs and lows in the atmosphere and thus the undulations
of the jet stream. This happened in the "summer of the century" in 2003
and the heat wave of 2015.
*The reality of global warming is catching up with us fast, and no
longer an issue for future generations.*
- - -
That year even saw the coldest temperatures on record in the subpolar
Atlantic - the only region on Earth that has defied global warming and
cooled instead. Such cold in the North Atlantic is occurring more and
more frequently because the Gulf Stream System is weakening, as has been
predicted by climate models in response to global warming.
Climate change does not just mean that everything is gradually getting
warmer: It is also changing the major circulations of our atmosphere and
ocean. This is making the weather increasingly weird and unpredictable.
The reality of global warming is catching up with us fast, and no longer
an issue for future generations. We will need to prepare for more
unpleasant surprises in the coming years, and we need to urgently cut
down emissions to prevent further destabilizing our climate system.
/Stefan Rahmstorf is professor of physics of the oceans and head of
Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research. He is the recipient of the 2017 Climate Communication Prize of
the American Geophysical Union./
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gobal-warming-freak-weather-explained/
[name, shame and blame]
*The Observer view on politicians who refuse to accept blame
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/19/observer-view-on-politicians-who-refuse-to-accept-blame-genoa-bridge-turkey-donald-trump>*
Observer editorial
"Our country is dealing with an unprecedented disaster and we cannot
play blame game right now," said Kerala's chief minister, Pinarayi
Vijayan. That may suffice for a while. But once the immediate threat has
passed, politicians also need to explain why scientific studies warning
ofa rising flood risk in Kerala
<https://www.news18.com/news/india/kerala-floods-live-updates-house-boats-out-on-the-streets-in-alappuzha-red-alert-back-in-11-districts-1848643.html>caused
by global warming and deforestation were not acted on. Those in power
must take responsibility not only for urgent disaster relief but also
for the long-term needs of millions of displaced flood victims and
theunderlying neglect
<https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/what-is-behind-the-kerala-monsoon-fury/story-2NxvHfTDAmS10k9hHofiiO.html>that
caused, or at least exacerbated, the tragedy. Who truly believes they
will?...
Donald Trump, a top contender for the title of world's most
irresponsible politician, was the ungrateful recipient last week of a
timely lesson in the duties, obligations and necessary qualities of
leadership. Denouncing Trump's cancellation of the security clearance
ofJohn Brennan
<https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/17/politics/john-brennan-trump-security-clearance/index.html>,
a former CIA chief and fierce critic of the president, William McRaven,
a decorated retired admiral famous for overseeing the raid that killed
Osama bin Laden, came out with all guns blazing.
McRaven wrote
<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/17/mccarthy-era-tactics-ex-spy-chiefs-round-on-trump-in-brennan-row>:
"Like most Americans, I had hoped that when you became president, you
would rise to the occasion and become the leader this great nation
needs. A good leader tries to embody the best qualities of his or her
organisation. A good leader sets the example for others to follow. A
good leader always puts the welfare of others before himself or herself.
Your leadership, however, has shown little of these qualities. Through
your actions, you have embarrassed us in the eyes of our children,
humiliated us on the world stage and, worst of all, divided us as a
nation."
Berat Albayrak: the Jared Kushner of Turkey tackles its crisis
Read more
Even by the fractious norms of contemporary American political
discourse, this is an extraordinary rebuke. Yet Trump thoroughly
deserves the admiral's thundering broadside. Theleadership example
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/18/mafia-style-government-trump-role-autocrats>he
sets is one of bullying, threats, mendacity, political cowardice and
constant blame-shifting. Its effect is corrosive of democracy
everywhere. Following Trump's latest threat to ostracise and silence
more senior officials who don't agree with him, his rogue presidency
slipped further into outright authoritarianism.
Perhaps, as we suggested at the start, politicians have always tended to
dodge responsibility and blame. And perhaps modern-day pressures, such
as 24-hour news and the instant judgments of social media, encourage
superficial political reactions and simplistic, black-and-white problem
analysis. Rightwing populism does not "do" complexity. Experts are
scorned, conspiracy theories involving malevolent outsiders are
embraced. Policy is for nerds. Its political mouthpieces cannot
countenance nuance, let alone failure. They are asked for, and provide,
immediate gut answers - which are almost invariably wrong.
It may be that what we are currently witnessing around the world is no
one-week blip, but accumulating evidence of a serious falling away of
standards of conduct in public life, as delineated by McRaven. At a time
of great global disharmony and deep divisions at home, we need, more
than ever, to be able to trust our leaders. And we need leaders worthy
of our trust.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/19/observer-view-on-politicians-who-refuse-to-accept-blame-genoa-bridge-turkey-donald-trump
[Opinion]
*It's the end of the Earth as we know it. Read all about it!
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/19/its-the-end-of-the-earth-as-we-know-it-read-all-about-it>*
Lucy Siegle - Sun 19 Aug 2018
Continued emissions could reach a tipping point that will drive the
planet into an irreversible, self-reinforcing hothouse state
- - -
Achieving "cut through" is a nightmare for climate change science. It's
notoriously hard to get the mainstream engaged by changes in the
concentration of an atmospheric gas, even if they're life-or-death
matters. So hats off to the crack team of Earth scientists, led by
climate change professor Will Steffen, whosepeer-reviewed report
<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/08/07/1810141115>on how
emissions are driving the Earth into an irreversible hothouse state has
been downloaded more than 270,000 times to date.
Wow. Academics are on holiday, so this means that people are probably
reading this stuff on the beach. At this rate, the report could make
theAltmetric Top 100 <https://www.altmetric.com/top100/2017/#list>. This
is the list of the most discussed journal articles of the year and is
usually dominated by research on grabby subjects such as the possibility
of life on other planets, but definitely not emissions-generated
feedback loops. Until now.
In a nutshell, the findings suggest that emissions drive climate changes
that trigger abrupt changes to Earth systems when they cross certain
thresholds. Ten of these feedback loops are identified in the report,
including the release of methane trapped in Siberian permafrost and the
impact of melting ice in Greenland on the Antarctic. They essentially
switch from "friends" that store carbon to "foes" that belch more
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and raise the temperature. The
researchers describe these "tipping elements" as falling dominoes, a
chaotic cascade that flips the Earth into a new way of operating that is
not predictable.
Not only is this complex science, but it's scary as hell. And it goes
against received wisdom about climate change communication - that you
must dress up like a clown to talk about it or put stuff into animations
and make everything super-relatable and friendly to attract people.
Apparently, we can handle a frightening degree of complexity. So why not
go the whole hog? Let's talk about the real title of the report (barely
mentioned) - Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. OK,
on first reading, it's a little dry, but what we're talking here is the
fact that we've exerted such an impact on planetary processes that we
humans have become a geological force in our own right. We've propelled
ourselves out of the Holocene, where we experienced friendly conditions
for 12,000 years, and have dumped ourselves in a new geological era, the
Anthropocene, where conditions are likely to be bad news.
We. Shifted. Geological. Epoch. Subjected day after day to internecine
wrangling over Brexit (a smaller, human-caused transition), surely this
very hard exit merits some attention?
•Lucy Siegle is a journalist who writes about ethical living
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/19/its-the-end-of-the-earth-as-we-know-it-read-all-about-it
[Comic relief - light sarcasm, from the Onion]
*Climate Experts Say Only Hope For Saving Planet Lies With People Who
Save Napkins From Takeout Order
<https://www.theonion.com/climate-experts-say-only-hope-for-saving-planet-lies-wi-1819579500>*
1/02/17
GENEVA-Explaining that global warming trends were close to passing a
dangerous and irreversible tipping point, a report released Monday by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that humanity's
sole hope for saving the planet now lies with people who save napkins
from their takeout orders. "According to our research, our only chance
of averting a worldwide catastrophe rests entirely in the hands of
individuals who keep the stacks of napkins that come in their takeout
bag alongside their burrito or Thai food orders," said IPCC researcher
Ellen Chen, who explained that by stockpiling these loose napkins
instead of throwing them out, these people offered the lone remaining
path to avoiding devastating superstorms, pan-continental droughts, and
increases in global sea levels that pose an existential threat to human
life. "We can only pray that these key men and women continue holding on
to their extra takeout napkins and piling them up in a kitchen drawer
beside the plastic silverware with which they're packed. Our fate-and,
indeed, the fate of all future generations-depends on it." Chen warned,
however, that if any such individuals began throwing out the little
conjoined packets of salt and pepper that come with their orders, the
planet was in all likelihood doomed.
https://www.theonion.com/climate-experts-say-only-hope-for-saving-planet-lies-wi-1819579500
*This Day in Climate History - August 20, 2013
<http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/21/what-al-jazeera-america-didnt-say-about-climate/195510>
- from D.R. Tucker*
August 20, 2013 - includes video
Al Jazeera America debuts, featuring a critically-acclaimed discussion
of climate change featuring climate scientists Heidi Cullen and Michael
Mann.
During its first day on the air, Al Jazeera America gave climate
change nearly half as much coverage as network news programs did
during the year 2012, all while avoiding common pitfalls like
providing false balance to those that deny the science and leaving
the crisis' manmade origins ambiguous.
The fledgling network's first climate report comprised the entirety
of Tuesday's edition of Inside Story, a half-hour news discussion
program that promises to "take an in-depth look at the story behind
the headlines." Indeed, the inaugural show featured a meaningful
dialogue on -- in guest Heidi Cullen's words -- "coming to terms
with the fact that we're all part of the problem ... [and] the
solution" to manmade global warming, and discussed consequences like
extreme weather and rising sea levels. It never wavered on the
veracity of the issue:
Al Jazeera America's 30 minutes of climate coverage (about 24
minutes not including commercial breaks) represented nearly half of
what was seen on all network nightly news programs in 2012, and more
than what was featured by CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront and Anderson
Cooper 360 and Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor and Hannity combined in
the past four and a half months:
While the network's early attention to climate change is a breath of
fresh air, it may not qualify as a surprise. After all, network
heads promised serious, in-depth reporting with "less opinion, less
yelling and fewer celebrity sightings," and commentators have held
out hope for a new source of solid TV journalism ever since the sale
of Current TV was finalized early this year.
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/21/what-al-jazeera-america-didnt-say-about-climate/195510
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