[TheClimate.Vote] August 23, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Aug 23 09:57:22 EDT 2018
/August 23, 2018/
[cough, cough, sob, sob]
*'The lost summer': the emotional and spiritual toll of the smoke
apocalypse
<https://thenarwhal.ca/the-lost-summer-the-emotional-and-spiritual-toll-of-the-smoke-apocalypse/>*
Anxiety, fear and grief: what experts are learning about the mental
health effects of wildfire haze
Sharon J Riley - Aug 21, 2018
Little research has been done to quantify the psychological effects of
widespread and persistent wildfire smoke, though researchers have found
ties to feelings of hopelessness, irritability, depression, fear,
isolation, change of sleep patterns and lethargy. The research is
scarce, in part because prolonged and widespread smoke is "a relatively
new phenomenon in North America," according to Dr. Sarah Henderson,
senior environmental health scientist at the B.C. Centre for Disease
Control.
Increasingly though, experts are concerned about the mental health
effects of our new reality: weeks of seemingly unending smoke wafting
across the western provinces each summer.
"It's very oppressive to live under smoky conditions, Henderson said. "A
couple of days of it is more tolerable than a couple of weeks of it."...
more at:
https://thenarwhal.ca/the-lost-summer-the-emotional-and-spiritual-toll-of-the-smoke-apocalypse/
- - - -
[Canadian Study May 2017]
*P062: SOS: Summer of Smoke--a mixed-methods, community-based study
investigating the health effects of a prolonged, severe wildfire season
on a subarctic population
<https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-emergency-medicine/article/p062-sos-summer-of-smokea-mixedmethods-communitybased-study-investigating-the-health-effects-of-a-prolonged-severe-wildfire-season-on-a-subarctic-population/3BD14351618CA8EBAA63804A78B213C4>*
Abstract
*Introduction:* Between June 15 and Aug 31st 2014, Canada's
Northwest Territories (pop 44,000: Stats Can), a subarctic region
which is over 2C warmer than it was in the 1950's, experienced an
unprecedented number of forest fires, with 385 fires and
approximately 3.4 million hectares of forest affected. This resulted
in one of Canada's most severe and prolonged urban smoke exposures
for the capital city of Yellowknife and surrounding Aboriginal
communities. Our objective was to obtain a big-picture sense of the
health impact of the Summer of Smoke on the population of these
communities through a mixture of quantitative and qualitative
analysis. *Methods:* We analyzed PM2.5 levels, salbutamol
dispensations, clinic and hospital cardiorespiratory variables, and
in-depth video interviews with community members from Yellowknife,
N'Dilo, Dettah and Kakisa. *Results:* 49% of days June15-Aug31 in
2014 had a PM2.5 over 30 mcg/m3, as compared to 3% in 2012 and 9% in
2013 and 2015. Max daily PM 2.5 in 2014 was 320.4 mcg/m3. There was
a 22% increase in outpatient salbutamol dispensations in 2014
compared to the average of 2012, 2013 and 2015. More cough,
pneumonia and asthma were seen in clinics compared to 2012-2015
(P<0.001). There was a 42% increase in respiratory ER visits in 2014
compared to 2012-13, but no change in cardiac variables. The
respiratory effect was most pronounced in children 0-4 (114%
increase in ER visits). Qualitative analysis demonstrates themes of
fear, isolation, lack of physical activity, alteration of
traditional summertime activities for both aboriginal and
non-aboriginal subjects, elements of resilience and expectation for
future smoky summers in the context of a changing climate.
*Conclusion: *Prolonged wildfire seasons have a profound effect on
overall wellbeing. Responses to help minimize mental and physical
impacts such as the creation of clean-air community shelters,
recreation programming, initiatives to support community cohesion,
and "go outside when it is not smoky" messaging require further study.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-emergency-medicine/article/p062-sos-summer-of-smokea-mixedmethods-communitybased-study-investigating-the-health-effects-of-a-prolonged-severe-wildfire-season-on-a-subarctic-population/3BD14351618CA8EBAA63804A78B213C4
[thoughtful video about agency - calling for collective human intelligence]
*CLIMATE SCIENTIST: We Need Disruptive Change
<http://climatestate.com/2018/08/22/climate-scientist-we-need-disruptive-change/>*
Excerpt of a May 4th 2018 discussion, Anthropocene Lecture, in Berlin,
with Bruno Latour (Philosopher) and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research), watch the full talk
athttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-n_44M2nLw
Bruno Latourhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_Latour
Hans Joachim
Schellnhuberhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Joachim_Schellnhuber
Film and production: Dusan Solomun
Moderated by Bernd M. Scherer
Further
informationhttps://www.hkw.de/en/programm/projekte/2017/anthropocene_lectures/anthropocene_lectures_start.php
http://climatestate.com/2018/08/22/climate-scientist-we-need-disruptive-change/
[Top commentary from the famous Kaitlin Naughten]
@kaitlinnaughten
Scientist at the British Antarctic Survey. "I study climate change and
how it is affecting ice-ocean interactions around Antarctica."
*ClimateSight: The silver lining of fake news
<https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news>*
What exciting times we live in! The UK is stockpilingfood
<https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2018/jul/12/a-no-deal-brexit-survival-guide-what-food-to-stockpile>andmedicine
<https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/01/nhs-preparing-for-disruption-to-supplies-from-no-deal-brexit>as
it charges willingly into a catastrophe of its own choosing. The
next Australian prime minister islikely to be
<https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/22/peter-dutton-says-he-will-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-again-if-he-can-win>a
man who has committedcrimes
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/01/peter-dutton-again-forced-by-court-to-transfer-sick-child-from-nauru-to-australia>againsthumanity
<https://www.smh.com.au/national/dutton-blames-advocates-after-second-refugee-sets-self-on-fire-in-nauru-20160503-gol6jq.html>.
And America has descended so far into dystopia that it can't even be
summed up in one pithy sentence.
I spend a lot of time wondering how future generations will look
back upon this period in history. Will there be memorial museums on
Nauru and at the US-Mexican border, pledging Never Again? Will the
UK's years in the European Union be heralded as a golden age for the
country? And what will the history books say about Donald Trump?
When I imagine these future historians, giving their seminars and
writing their books and assigning their students essays, there is
one overarching theme I'm sure they will focus on. One puzzling
phenomenon is at the root of so much of the madness we face today.
Our future historian might title such a seminar "Widespread public
rejection of facts in the early 21st century". Or, if you wish to be
so crass, "Fake News". A distrust of experts, and of the very idea
of facts, now permeates almost every part of public life –
fromscience
<https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/flat-earthers-are-emerging-from-the-internet-and-theyre-starting-in-edmonton>toeconomics
<https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/i-want-my-country-back>tomedicine
<https://medium.com/the-method/8-common-arguments-against-vaccines-5d45ad9c1e29>topolitics
<https://www.factcheck.org/2017/01/the-facts-on-crowd-size/>.
Climate change used to be the sole target of this. I've been
wrestling with fake news on climate change for more than ten years
now. And I used to get so frustrated, because my friends and family
would read dodgy articles in respectable newspapers written by
fossil fuel executives and/believe/them. Or at least, consider them.
Reasonable people heard debate on this issue and assumed there must
be some merit to it. "Both sides of the climate change debate have
good points to make," they would reasonably say.
It's different now. Denialism has spread into so many topics, and
received so much attention, that reasonable people are now well
aware of its existence. "You guys, did you know that there are
people who don't believe in facts?!" is the gist of so many dinner
conversations around the world these days. And the exhausted climate
scientists sit back, twirl their spaghetti around their fork, and
say "Yes, yes we know. So you've finally caught on."
This is the weird silver lining of fake news: reasonable people now
take climate change more seriously. When they read bogus stories
about global cooling and natural cycles and scientific conspiracies,
they just say "Aha! These are the people who don't believe in
facts." It's like the dystopia of 2018 has inoculated many of us
against denialism.More and more people now understand and accept the
science of climate change
<https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Climate-Change-American-Mind-March-2018.pdf>,
even while those who don't grow louder and more desperate. Climate
change deniers still exist, but it seems that their audience is
shrinking.
(Of course, this doesn't meanwe're
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-climate-change-malcolm-turnbull-prime-minister-leadership-a8499366.html>actually
<https://bc.ctvnews.ca/u-s-clears-trans-mountain-pipeline-sale-to-canada-1.4058609>doing
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/01/donald-trump-confirms-us-will-quit-paris-climate-deal>anything
<https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/uk-weather-heatwave-deaths-hot-temperature-climate-change-environmental-audit-committee-a8463716.html>about
climate change.)
https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96278
- - - -
[her work:]
*Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5
Scenarios <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0854.1>*
Kaitlin A. Naughtena
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, and ARC
Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, New South
Wales, and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre,
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
See all authors & affiliations
Abstract
Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase
during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have
consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here
we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using
the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with
atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on
their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the
Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the
CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the
representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal
mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of
Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the
largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism
driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water
on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea
ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies
the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and
intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in
the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day
simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include
freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic
Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in
our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken
and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0854.1
[Prevention first]
*How To Prepare Your Home For Wildfire
<https://www.opb.org/news/article/wildfire-protect-home-how-to/>*
by Joseph Winters OPB/EarthFix
Aug. 15, 2018
Homes built on the edge of forests and grasslands are especially
vulnerable to wildfires. Development in this zone - known as the
wildland-urban interface - is the fastest-growing land use type in the
lower 48 states.
The U.S. has more than 46 million homes in this wildfire danger zone and
more people moving in right when climate change is making for longer,
hotter and drier wildfire seasons.
Here are a few steps you can take to protect your home from wildfire.
*Home Preparation:*
*Roof:* Replace with Class A, noncombustible materials. Prevent
debris buildup by avoiding roofs with ridges and valleys, and use
bird stops to seal open edges.
*Gutters:* Keep free of debris.
*Crawlspace and attic:* Install 1/8-inch metal mesh screens to keep
embers out.
*Windows:* Replace single-pane windows with double-paned, tempered
glass windows.
*Chimney:* Install a spark arrestor with 1/2-inch mesh to prevent
embers from escaping.
*Fence:* Replace wood with noncombustible materials. Ensure that any
part of a fence touching the home is noncombustible.
*Create A Defensible Space:*
*Zone 1:* 0-30 feet from your home. Cover the ground with noncombustible
materials like gravel or concrete. Remove overhanging branches. Do not
store firewood here.
*Zone 2:* 30-100 feet from your home. Use vegetation "islands" to break
up continuous fuel sources. Limit debris and keep the grass under 8 inches.
*Zone 3: *100-200 feet from your home. Maintain a minimum of 10 feet
between treetops. Limit debris and remove ladder fuels - fuels that
allow fires to climb vertically into the upper canopy.
In addition, write and memorize an emergency plan for your family. You
may also want to pack an emergency kit with essentials like water, food
and first aid materials. Find a suggested list of items on Ready.gov.
https://www.opb.org/news/article/wildfire-protect-home-how-to/
[Climate Liability News]
*EPA Backs Away from Climate Regulation, Opens Door for Legal
Challenges?
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/08/22/climate-regulation-epa-liability/>*
By Ucilia Wang
The Trump administration's watered-down proposal to regulate power plant
emissions will weaken protection of the environment and climate, but it
could strengthen the legal arguments of those challenging the government
and fossil fuel industry in court.
The Environmental Protection Agency proposed the rule on Tuesday to
replace the Clean Power Plan, the Obama administration's regulation to
curb carbon pollution from power plants and compel states to promote
renewable energy to meet emission reduction targets. Finalized in 2015,
the Clean Power Plan was stayed by the Supreme Court and has never been
implemented.
The Trump administration promised a more industry-friendly version and
delivered it on Tuesday. Called the Affordable Clean Energy rule focuses
narrowly on improving a power plant efficiency while easing pollution
control requirements. The rule must go through the mandated comment
period and will face immediate legal challenges....
- - - -
The EPA surprised many by acknowledging that the new rule will likely
sicken and kill Americans: up to 1,630 premature deaths annually by 2030
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-21/epa-says-more-americans-will-die-under-its-power-plant-rollback>,
along with more asthma cases and lost school and work days.
"I expect the government would argue in the Juliana case that the United
States is taking action to protect the plaintiffs from climate change
and cite the new rule. The hard part for the government lawyers is that
the new rule is less protective than the rule that the Obama
administration had promulgated," Longest said.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/08/22/climate-regulation-epa-liability/
[What the hell Shell?]
*Exclusive: Shell Took 16 Years To Warn Shareholders of Climate Risks,
Despite Knowing in Private All Along
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/08/20/exclusive-company-docs-show-shell-secretly-studied-climate-risks-10-years-warning-investors>*
By Chloe Farand and Sharon Kelly - Monday, August 20, 2018
Share
It took oil company Shell more than 16 years to directly warn its
shareholders that climate policy posed a financial risk to the company's
business model despite knowing - in private and for decades - about the
relationship between its products and climate change.
Shell started commissioning confidential work about the impact of
burning fossil fuels on the global climate as early as 1981. However,
analysis by DeSmog UK and DeSmog found that Shell did not start
mentioning the possibility of climate change to shareholders in annual
reports before 1991 - 10 years after the company started a research
stream to study climate change.
Analysis of Shell's annual reports and financial records at the time
show the company did not give a clear warning to its shareholders about
the financial risks "related to the impact of climate change" and
attached to their investments until 2004.
DeSmog UK and DeSmog have worked through Shell companies' annual reports
submitted to the UK's Companies House and 10-K's and 20-F forms filed
under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) throughout the
1990s and early 2000s to compare what the company knew in private at the
end of the 1980s and what it told its shareholders about the
environmental and financial risks attached to their investment during
the following decade....
- - - -
Responding to the findings, a Shell spokesperson told DeSmog:
"Shell has long acknowledged the climate challenge, an issue that has
been part of public discourse for many decades, and our position on
climate change has been publicly documented for more than two decades
through publications such as our annual report and sustainability report."
"We take seriously our responsibility to report clearly and
transparently on financial risks, which includes complying with U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission regulations."
DeSmog's anlysis shows Shell's financial statements and corporate
documents filed between the early 1990s and 2004 give an insight into
how the company shaped and controlled its own narrative around global
warming and its impact over the decades.
While Shell was comfortable using The Shell Report, sustainability
reports, and its film and video unit to promote its clear understanding
of climate science in the 1990s and early 2000s, it took the company
much longer to overtly tell its shareholders of the financial risk
climate policy and the impacts of global warming posed to their
investments.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/08/20/exclusive-company-docs-show-shell-secretly-studied-climate-risks-10-years-warning-investors
[NASA [no audio] visualization of Monsoon weather]
*IMERG Calculates Monsoon Rainfall Over India
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdPr1FND35g>*
NASA Video - Published on Aug 21, 2018
Rainfall accumulations from Aug. 13 to 20, 2018 showed two bands of
heavy rain across India. The first band appeared much broader and
extends across the northern part of the peninsula with weekly rainfall
totals ranging from over 120 mm (~5 inches, in yellow) towards the
western half of the peninsula to as much as 350 mm (~14 inches, in dark
red) over parts of the eastern half towards the Bay of Bengal. The
second band was more concentrated, intense and closely aligned with the
southwest coast of India and the Western Ghats. Rainfall totals in this
band are generally over 250 mm (~10 inches, in red) with embedded areas
exceeding 400 mm (~16 inches, in purple). The maximum estimated value
from IMERG in this band was 469 mm (~18.5 inches). Credit:
NASA/JAXA/SSAI/Hal Pierce
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdPr1FND35g
[The Atlantic magazine]
*The Victims of Climate Change Are Already Here
<https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/climate-change-global-climate-action-summit/568069/>*
With a new global summit approaching, communities in the southern United
States are calling attention to the disaster scenarios they currently face.
VANN R. NEWKIRK II
In the new global reality, where each passing year is the hottest on
record, the final month of summer foretells calamity. It's always hot
and volatile in the dog days between mid-August and mid-September, but
the past few years have dialed those elements up high. Heat waves,
droughts, storms, floods, and other extreme events have garnered
increasing attention. The largest wildfire in California's history is
now raging almost a year after the previous record holder hit the state.
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma ravaged the Gulf Coast and Florida in late
August last year. Hurricane Maria became the second-most deadly natural
disaster in contemporary American history when it passed over Puerto
Rico last September. And the 13th anniversary of the Louisiana landfall
of Hurricane Katrina, the largest such storm, is on August 29.
Climate change is not a future problem. Climate change is a current
problem. Yet the United States-despite this recent history-has pulled
back from a number of already insufficient commitments to reversing
emissions and global warming. Faced with this vacuum, American
nongovernmental organizations and states have stepped forward with
campaigns designed to reinvigorate climate activism and policy making.
But they have a long way to go, especially in connecting a mainstream
climate movement with the majority of the victims of those disasters...
- - - -
Climate change is not a future problem. Climate change is a current
problem. Yet the United States-despite this recent history-has pulled
back from a number of already insufficient commitments to reversing
emissions and global warming. Faced with this vacuum, American
nongovernmental organizations and states have stepped forward with
campaigns designed to reinvigorate climate activism and policy making.
But they have a long way to go, especially in connecting a mainstream
climate movement with the majority of the victims of those disasters...
- - - -
Continuing on across desert and mountains and into the rich hinterland
of California, the communities on the tour are increasingly
vocal-perhaps even desperate. For them, the points of no return aren't 2
degrees away in the future, but could be reached within the span of a
few years. Farmworkers in western Texas face the dual pressures of
hostile immigration enforcement and hotter and more dangerous working
conditions. Small minority-owned farms in New Mexico seek a new model to
compete in a warming state.Throughout the tour's span, displacement is
already widespread, migrant farmworkers have already found themselves
fleeing heat and droughts, and the space and social boundaries of cities
that were already built under the constraints of Jim Crow are under
stress from natural disasters and heat.
Events like the Global Climate Action Summit are kicking off a
post-American era of climate leadership, with the understanding that if
humans wait too long to do something meaningful about the Earth's
warming, catastrophe is surely ahead. But even more sure is that there
are plenty of catastrophes brewing in forgotten places today.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/climate-change-global-climate-action-summit/568069/
*This Day in Climate History - August 23, - from D.R. Tucker*
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