[TheClimate.Vote] August 31, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
rantman at rpauli.com
Fri Aug 31 11:24:57 EDT 2018
/August 31, 2018/
[just beginning]
*'Weather models have flipped the switch': Hurricane season coming to
life in the Atlantic
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/08/29/hurricane-season-coming-life-atlantic/1132669002/>*
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY - Aug. 29, 2018
The sleeping giant may be about to awaken.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to ramp up over the next couple of weeks. "Weather
models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season and see
multiple areas of development possible, starting mainly this weekend,"
weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said.
One storm could spin up in the Caribbean over the next few days and
affect Florida over the Labor Day weekend. Looking further ahead, "there
is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning over the
Atlantic by the second weekend in September," AccuWeather meteorologist
Dan Kottlowski said.
The next tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin will be
called Florence.
One of the reasons for the predicted increase in activity is that wind
shear, which tends to rip apart developing hurricanes, appears to be
decreasing. "There are signs now that wind shear may drop over a
significant part of the Atlantic basin over the next couple of weeks,"
said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
It's too early to predict exactly where or when any storm might form or
whether a storm will affect land areas...
- - - -
In addition, the team investigated the presence of thermokarst lakes.
These small pocket lakes are produced from melting permafrost. As
permafrost in an area melts, it releases a large amount of water and
since ice has a larger volume than ice when permafrost melts the land in
the area tends to sag. This small depression creates a small lake, which
leads to faster melting of the permafrost and quicker release of
greenhouse gases.
This sudden release of greenhouse gases triggers a positive feedback as
it adds to the overall warming. What the NASA funded researchers are
finding is that this process can be quite abrupt, leading to a larger
and quicker impact on global warming. Large releases of carbon are not
decades or centuries away, they are rapidly happening today and with it,
changing the landscape of the Arctic.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/08/29/hurricane-season-coming-life-atlantic/1132669002/
*
[Lessons not learned will be repeated]
Another Record-Setting Heat Wave, More Boston Media Climate Silence
<http://bluemassgroup.com/2018/08/another-record-setting-heat-wave-more-boston-media-climate-silence/>*
August 30, 2018 By thegreenmiles
As meteorologists forecast this week's sweltering heat and humidity to
finally break tonight, here's a recap of this week's late-summer heat wave:
Boston had its second-hottest night ever, never going below 81 in the
early morning of August 29. Boston, Providence and Worcester all set
records for warmest night for the date.
New all-time record high set for August 29 in Boston and tied in Providence.
On the same day, Worcester more than doubled its record rainfall for the
date. (Via NBC10's Matt Noyes.)
2018 is on pace to be the 4th-hottest year ever globally and would mean
the last 4 years on Earth have each been among the 4 hottest on record.
How do we know global warming is loading the dice for heat waves exactly
like the one we're suffering through?
Global warming is increasing heat waves.
Global warming is also raising humidity, amplifying the deadliness of
the heat.
Nights are warming even faster than days, making nights not just more
miserable but potentially lethal in a region like ours where many homes
don't have air conditioning.
But as usual, Google News searches turn up little coverage connecting
the dots between the heat and the climate crisis. (If I missed any,
please link to them in comments.)
The Boston Globe wrote about August's potentially record-setting heat,
but ignored how global warming is adding fuel to our fire. In the
weather section, Dave Epstein continues his war on people saying global
warming is causing global warming by saying, "One hot summer isn't
climate change, but this type of summer is what a change in climate
looks like." ...
- - - - -
"The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle," leading climate
scientist Michael Mann told CNN. "We are seeing them play out in real
time in the form of unprecedented heat waves, floods, droughts and
wildfires. And we've seen them all this summer."
Maybe some day, Boston's media will start covering global warming as the
clear-and-present crisis that it is. But we haven't seen it this summer.
http://bluemassgroup.com/2018/08/another-record-setting-heat-wave-more-boston-media-climate-silence/
[CBS new reports on California]
*California issues dire warning on impact of climate change
<https://youtu.be/68MujhCkXVA>*
CBS News video report https://youtu.be/68MujhCkXVA
Published on Aug 28, 2018
A state report predicts California will see a significant increase in
wildfires, hotter temperatures and eroding beaches. KCBS reporter Tina
Patel has the story.
https://youtu.be/68MujhCkXVA
[volatile]
*NASA Discovers Bubbling Lakes In The Remote Arctic - A Sign Of Global
Warming
<https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/08/30/nasa-discovers-bubbling-lakes-in-the-remote-arctic-a-sign-of-global-warming/#2c64024661f5>*
Trevor Nace - Aug 30, 2018
NASA has released videos of bubbling lakes in the remote Arctic tundra,
where warming continues to release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
at unprecedented rates.
New Arctic Lakes Could Soon Be a Major Source of Atmospheric Methane
<https://youtu.be/ujwfgKvSVPk>
-- https://youtu.be/ujwfgKvSVPk
The international research team, funded by NASA as part of their
Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), recently published their
results in Nature Communications. What they found are bubbling lakes as
greenhouse gases are released from the previously frozen ground, leading
to increased greenhouse gas emissions and a warming positive feedback.
The Arctic is one of the largest natural reservoirs of organic carbon,
trapped within the frozen soils. If a tree dies, say in the Amazon
rainforest, it is quickly eaten (rot) away by bacteria, which respire
the same as humans. As bacteria eat the tree they inhale oxygen and
release carbon dioxide. Hence, the carbon taken up by the tree through
photosynthesis is then released back into the atmosphere as carbon
dioxide for the cycle to start all over again.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/08/30/nasa-discovers-bubbling-lakes-in-the-remote-arctic-a-sign-of-global-warming/#2c64024661f5
[the mouth of the Nile River]
*Houses claimed by the canal: life on Egypt's climate change frontline
<https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/aug/29/alexandria-little-venice-egypt-climate-change-frontline>*
Ruth Michaelson in Alexandria - Wed 29 Aug 2018
In Alexandria's 'Little Venice', a poor fishing community faces the
demolition of its homes and loss of its livelihood thanks to rising seas
– and a local government keen to clear its slums
On the banks of the El Max canal near the Egyptian port city of
Alexandria, one man untangles fishing nets in his turquoise-painted boat
as the sound of a sledgehammer hitting bricks ricochets down the waterway.
Others lean out of their windows on one bank of the canal, staring at
the growing piles of rubble of what was once rows of homes on the
opposite bank. The previous occupants as well as those looking on are a
harbinger of thousands who will be forced to leave their homes due to
climate change.
Abir Mohamed Abdel-Salam says she doesn't remember exactly when the
canal water first rose above the height of her front window, pouring
into her house. "It would reach the top of my thighs," she says. Black
fumes rise overhead from the adjacent petroleum factory.
For years, flooding has been a regular occurrence, and now she knows her
emergency response by heart.
"First I would send someone to turn off the pumps," she says, referring
to the nearby pumping station designed to prevent flooding on an
adjacent coastal road, one driven by wealthy Egyptians en route to their
summer homes. "Then we would build a fort inside our house with the
furniture."
The three tiers of crumbling cement houses in El Max once formed the
backbone of a 1,000-strong fishing community. But since March, the local
authorities have forced half the residents out of their homes and into
bleak tower blocks overlooking the canal they once depended on for their
livelihood. Those that remain await the demolition of their homes,
gazing at the rubble on the opposite bank as a reminder of what awaits
them...
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/aug/29/alexandria-little-venice-egypt-climate-change-frontline
[YouTube video 15 mins 'no tipping-point in human behavior']
*Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8aeIbQzXfw>*
Paul Beckwith - Aug 29, 2018
Where I live, it has been too hot and too humid this summer. Quality of
life has degraded. Ongoing climate system change is hitting my home, and
is likely in-your-face as well this year; please comment on your own
situation. I chat about heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and monsoonal
like torrential rains that are worsening as Arctic sea-ice degrades.
What about human responses. Scientists are very worried but lack power.
Politics is divisive. As climate change causes more and more migration,
governments become more and more populist and nationalistic and also
deny climate change.
What can we do? Please support my work at http://paulbeckwith.net
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8aeIbQzXfw
[Arizona Ruling lunacy bad news for academic science]
*Court: UA must release emails by climate-change researchers
<https://tucson.com/news/local/court-ua-must-release-emails-by-climate-change-researchers/article_26d40e41-869f-5fea-a32c-0562e0442355.html>*
By Howard Fischer Capitol Media Services Aug 30, 2018
PHOENIX - An organization that questions the role of humans in climate
change is going to get access to the emails and records of work done by
two scientists at the University of Arizona in its bid to argue that
their research is flawed.
The Arizona Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected a last-ditch effort by
the Arizona Board of Regents to overturn lower court rulings that
ordered the documents immediately released. While the justices did not
comment on their decision, they effectively rejected arguments by the
Board of Regents that release would be "contrary to the best interests
of the state."
David Schnare, attorney for the Energy & Environment Legal Institute,
said the only question that remains is how quickly the university will
surrender the documents his organization first sought seven years ago.
At the heart of the legal battle are emails and other documents from
Jonathan Overpeck and Malcolm Hughes who both specialize in research on
climate change.
Schnare said E & E is particularly interested in their work since it
became a crucial part of a report that linked human activity to global
warming. And that report, in turn, has become the basis for policy
changes that have sought to move away from the use of fossil fuels for
energy generation because of the production of "greenhouse" gases like
carbon dioxide.
What E & E wants to see, Schnare said, is the interaction the pair had
with other scientists as the report was being prepared. He said that
should reveal were comments from others "that were never included or
never seriously considered."
"How these reports are put together and how these comments are dealt
with is a valid question with regards to reliance on this report,"
Schnare said. "One has to ask, just because they claim they had a lot of
experts involved, was it an honest piece of work or not."
Messages left with Hughes, who is still at the UA, and Overpeck who is
now with the University of Michigan, were not immediately returned.
Schnare said he is not saying that either scientists did anything wrong
or even that their research is erroneous. But he said the only way
questions can be answered is through full release of all the documents
that were being considered.
Still, Schnare acknowledged that his client has a bias of sorts.
E & E describes itself as a nonprofit that engages in litigation to hold
accountable "those who seek excessive and destructive government
regulation that's based on agenda-driving policy making, junk science
and hysteria."
He said E & E does not doubt the climate has been changing. And Schnare
is even willing to say there is some evidence that temperatures are rising.
The question, he said, is why.
"The globe's been warming up because of that cool period we had," he
said, going back to the Ice Age.
"There's only one direction to go and that's up," Schnare continued.
"And at some point there's only going to be one direction to go. It's
going to be down again."
And he said the theories that increased production of greenhouse gases
traps heat and is causing major temperature changes is not necessarily
borne out by the research.
In filing the original lawsuit, Schnare said Overpeck was prominent in
the "cause" of global warming, including "activism for environmental
pressure groups."
Schnare also said the pair came to his group's attention after a server
at a British university was hacked, disclosing thousands of email
exchanges between academics and others involved in climate research.
Some of what was found was labeled "climategate" and is being used by
groups to show that global warming is just a conspiracy.
One issue that raises questions about credibility of research like this,
said Schnare, is that much of it is done with federal dollars.
"There is a potential and, in some case, realized bias by the
academicians because they want to keep getting money," he said.
"If you're doing environmental issues or health issues, you've got to
say that it's all going to hell in a hand basket because that's the only
way you're going to get money," Schnare continued. "If you write a paper
that says, 'Hey, everything's fine and dandy and we've come a long way
and we really don't need to spend a lot of money in this area any more
of the government,' you're not going to get anything."
https://tucson.com/news/local/court-ua-must-release-emails-by-climate-change-researchers/article_26d40e41-869f-5fea-a32c-0562e0442355.html
*South Portland's Tar Sands Ban Upheld in a 'David vs. Goliath' Pipeline
Battle
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28082018/tar-sands-pipeline-court-ruling-south-portland-ban-public-health-constitutional-big-oil-maine>*
Citing Maine's 'home rule authority' to protect public health, the small
city took on Big Oil, which lined up behind a company challenging its
tar sands ban.
BY SABRINA SHANKMAN
A federal judge has ruled that the coastal city of South Portland,
Maine, did not violate the U.S. Constitution when it passed an ordinance
that blocked a local pipeline company from bringing tar sands oil
through its port.
For the city of 25,000, the ruling was a surprise victory after years of
fighting what felt like an impossible battle against some of the world's
biggest oil companies, which lined up to support the Portland Pipe Line
Corporation (PPLC).
Provided the ruling survives an appeal, it slams the door on a
significant plan to ship Canadian tar sands oil, one of the most
carbon-intensive fuels on the planet, to the East Coast for export to
international markets, and it could offer a guide for other communities
hoping to block energy projects.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28082018/tar-sands-pipeline-court-ruling-south-portland-ban-public-health-constitutional-big-oil-maine
[Solar cents sense]
*It is not how much sun you get, it is how much you pay for electricity.
Stupid.
<https://solaracademy.com/2018/03/04/it-is-not-how-much-sun-you-get-it-is-how-much-you-pay-for-your-electricity-stupid/>*
Many people think how much sun they get is the main driver for going
solar. It is not.
Of course having a roof that is clearly exposed to the sun is important.
Having shading from trees, chimneys or other structures will affect your
ability to put solar and make a decent return on your investment.
Having said that, provided that you have the appropriate space for your
solar system, the amount of sun you get is relatively much less
important than the price you pay for your electricity.
The solar energy production of a solar system in the US ranges only
about plus or minus 20% from the national average based on your location.
The average kWh per kW production of a solar system is about 1500 kWh
per kW in the US. In the below map, you will notice that in a
not-so-sunny location like Seattle, production of solar system goes down
to about 1200 kWh per kW, and in a sunny location like San Diego, it
goes up to about 1700 kWh per kW.
On the other hand, the value of electricity generated (i.e. the value of
a kWh) ranges so widely. The electricity price of a kWh can be as low as
8 cents in Georgia where as it can be as high as 50 cents in Hawaii.
This means a solar system owner would realize almost 7 times more value
from solar generated electricity in Hawaii versus Georgia.
Therefore, understanding what you pay for per kWh is key in
understanding whether solar makes sense for you. One other key aspect in
doing this analysis might be understanding the rate schedule of your
utility company. Many utility companies offer varying rate schedules
based on tiered pricing or based on your time-of-use. Net metering rules
allow you to earn credit for your solar production at your retail rate.
A good rule of thumb: if you are paying more than 13 cents per kWh than
solar will most likely make sense for you.
Understanding exactly how your rate schedule works is key to make the
decision to go solar. These days, most of the utility companies have
customer service departments that help you decide the most appropriate
rate schedule with or without a solar system. So if you have questions
about going solar, you should contact your local utility company.
Nowadays, many utility companies have consumer education programs like
this one from SDG&E. If you still have questions, feel free to CALL US.
https://solaracademy.com/2018/03/04/it-is-not-how-much-sun-you-get-it-is-how-much-you-pay-for-your-electricity-stupid/
[Thanks WAPO, but none of this is news]
*Climate change could render many of Earth's ecosystems unrecognizable
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/08/30/climate-change-could-render-many-earths-ecosystems-unrecognizable/>*
By Sarah Kaplan
August 30 at 12:51 PM
After the end of the last ice age - as sea levels rose, glaciers receded
and global average temperatures soared as much as seven degrees Celsius
- the Earth's ecosystems were utterly transformed.
Forests grew up out of what was once barren, ice-covered ground. Dark,
cool stands of pine were...
- - - -
After the end of the last ice age - as sea levels rose, glaciers receded
and global average temperatures soared as much as seven degrees Celsius
- the Earth's ecosystems were utterly transformed.
Forests grew up out of what was once barren, ice-covered ground. Dark,
cool stands of pine were replaced by thickets of hickory and oak.
Woodlands gave way to scrub, and savanna turned to desert. The more
temperatures increased in a particular landscape, the more dramatic the
ecological shifts.
It's about to happen again, researchers are reporting Thursday in the
journal Science. A sweeping survey of global fossil and temperature
records from the past 20,000 years suggests that Earth's terrestrial
ecosystems are at risk of another, even faster transformation unless
aggressive action is taken against climate change.
"Even as someone who has spent more than 40 years thinking about
vegetation change looking into the past...it is really hard for me to
wrap my mind around the magnitude of change we're talking about," said
ecologist Stephen Jackson, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center and the lead author of the
new study.
"It is concerning to me to think about how much change and how rapidly
the change is likely to happen, and how little capacity we have to
predict the exact course," he said, "which creates very large challenges
for all of us out there who are trying to manage wildfire, fish, water,
soil, endangered species - all those different ways in which natural
ecosystems affect us."...
- - - - -
All three scientists said it would be difficult to predict exactly how
individual ecosystems will change in the years to come. Not only is
modern climate change faster than what occurred after the Ice Age, but
the ecological disruption caused by temperature increases is compounded
by pollution, deforestation and other human activities.
"That is a unique combination, and that's what makes it more scary,"
Jackson said. "It's going to take the natural adaptive capacity that's
out there and strain it, and we will probably have to adapt, too."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/08/30/climate-change-could-render-many-earths-ecosystems-unrecognizable/
[Utterly stupid]
*Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele hits out at climate change
sceptics during fiery speech
<http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-31/samoan-prime-minister-hits-out-at-climate-change-sceptics/10185142>*
So any leader of any country who believes that there is no climate
change, I think he ought to be taken to mental confinement. He is
utterly stupid. And I say the same thing to any leader here."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-31/samoan-prime-minister-hits-out-at-climate-change-sceptics/10185142
[Lunacy report]
*Ukip MEP sparks outrage with report denying human role in climate
change
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/ukip-mep-sparks-outrage-with-report-denying-human-role-in-climate-change>*
Report blames climate change on cosmic ray fluctuations and sunspot
activity, drawing derision from climate scientists
A European parliament report that blames climate change on cosmic ray
fluctuations, sunspots and planetary gravitational pulls, is so
hackneyed and ill-informed it would "make the dinosaurs blush," climate
scientists say.
The non-binding opinion written by Ukip MEP, John Stuart Agnew, has
shocked EU lawmakers for its dismissal of climate science – and the
support he received to write it from mainstream rightwing and liberal
political blocs.
Green MEP Molly Scott Cato said their choice of Agnew, a Norfolk farmer,
as parliamentary rapporteur by the agriculture committee, was a "truly
scandalous" fiasco that illustrated a growing populist threat. A
rapporteur is elected to shepherd EU proposals through the European
parliament and, after negotiations with the European commission and EU
states, into law.
The Agnew report calls for a €5.45bn green fund called Life to be used
to prepare "for an impending Maunder Minimum" – or a period of low
sunspot activity.
It deletes the European commission's proposals for funds to be spent on
clean energy infrastructure, references to climate mitigation and
obligations under the Paris agreement.
Agnew claimed that his ideas represented scientific "fact". He said:
"I'm doing this to ensure that somewhere in the files and annals of the
European parliament there was somebody who said: 'The king isn't wearing
an invisible suit! The king is naked!'"
Rather than human activity, the Agnew report attributes climate change
to cosmic ray fluctuations and gravitational pulls from elsewhere in the
galaxy, sunspot activity, ocean currents and greenhouse gas water
vapour, in the form of cloud cover.
"The other greenhouse gases, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide have a
negligible effect on our climate," Agnew's paper claims. "The only
potential risk of a major CO2 event in Europe is an erupting volcano."
Dave Reay, professor of carbon management at Edinburgh University told
the Guardian, after looking at the paper: "It is fitting that this
laughable document misuses palaeoclimate information in its case against
human-induced climate change – the hackneyed, pseudo-scientific
arguments here would make the dinosaurs blush."
Agnew's paper has no legal weight and will almost certainly be dismissed
by the environment committee when the issue is debated on 30 August.
In part, it reflects a turf war between the agriculture and environment
panels over responsibility for separate proposals on greening
obligations under the next CAP.
But with fears of an influx of far-right MEPs in parliamentary elections
next year growing, Agnew's success has also set alarm bells ringing.
Scott Cato told the Guardian it was "shocking" to think that someone
with his climate views could influence funding disbursements.
"It's truly scandalous that a proud climate denier has got control of
such an important file," she said. "This fiasco shows the damage that
can be done by electing populists who really have no understanding of
their brief and are not competent to undertake the highly influential
and detailed work that is required of elected politicians."
Agnew has long campaigned against what he terms "the global warming
scam". He has also drawn attention for claiming thousands of pounds in
CAP payments for his Norfolk farm every month, according to his members'
declaration.
He told the Guardian that "I threw my hat in the ring to do this
[report] fully expecting to be thrown out of court," but that he then
received wide support, "to my genuine astonishment".
A spokesman for the European People's Party said their backing for Agnew
was due to bidding procedures and not an endorsement of his climate
politics.
Agnew was also supported by the European Conservatives and Reformists
bloc of mostly Conservative MEPs and far-right Europe of Nations and
Freedom faction.
The Socialists opposed Agnew and the Greens stood against him, but they
were hampered by the abstention of the far left GUE group and support
for Agnew from the ALDE bloc of Liberals. Two ALDE MEP's contacted by
the Guardian declined to comment.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/ukip-mep-sparks-outrage-with-report-denying-human-role-in-climate-change
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