[TheClimate.Vote] August 30, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Richard Pauli richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Aug 30 10:29:54 EDT 2018 

/August 30, 2018/

[optimism fish]
*Fish populations could rise in warming climate with better management 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/fish-populations-could-rise-even-with-extreme-climate-change-study-shows>*
Study finds potential for fisheries to benefit in future - as long as 
warming can be kept in check...
- - - -
Better management of fisheries and fishing rights around the world could 
increase profits and leave more fish in the sea as long as measures to 
meet climate obligations are taken, new research has found.
Even if temperatures rise by as much as 4C above pre-industrial levels - 
in the upper range of current forecasts - the damaging effects on 
fishing can be reduced through improving how stocks are fished and managed.
Governments are meeting from 4 September in New York for the first round 
of talks on a new global treaty of the high seas, which would aim to 
conserve overfished stocks and make access to key fisheries more 
equitable...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/fish-populations-could-rise-even-with-extreme-climate-change-study-shows


[A too green Lake Superior]
*Algae Bloom in Lake Superior Raises Worries on Climate Change and Tourism
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/science/lake-superior-algae-toxic.html>*By 
Christine Hauser - Aug. 29, 2018
In 19 years of piloting his boat around Lake Superior, Jody Estain had 
never observed the water change as it has this summer. The lake has been 
unusually balmy and cloudy, with thick mats of algae blanketing the 
shoreline.
"I have never seen it that warm," said Mr. Estain, a former Coast Guard 
member who guides fishing, cave and kayak tours year-round. "Everybody 
was talking about it."
But it was not just recreational observers along the shores of the lake 
who noticed the changes with concern. Lake Superior, the largest of the 
Great Lakes with more than 2,700 miles of shoreline, is the latest body 
of water to come under increased scrutiny by scientists after the 
appearance this summer of the largest mass of green, oozing algae ever 
detected on the lake.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/science/lake-superior-algae-toxic.html


[BC Wildfire lookout]
*The future looks grim after 2 years of devastating B.C. wildfires 
<https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-after-2-years-of-devastating-b-c-wildfires-1.4801181>*
Scientists say climate change models need to be revised after 
back-to-back summers of wildfire emergencies
According to Chilliwack fire ecologist Robert Gray, the scale of the 
wildfire emergencies we've lived through in 2017 and 2018 wasn't 
expected for decades.
"What we thought was going to be an average condition in 2050, we're 
starting to see those conditions coming a lot sooner," Gray told CBC.
"There's been a lot of discussion in the scientific community about 
really changing what we think the future is going to look like."...
- - - - -
For the last two years, the hot and dry weather that has allowed so many 
large fires to develop in B.C. has been driven by a blocking ridge of 
high pressure that's been stuck over the province for much of the summer.
The air beneath that ridge sinks, warms and dries, creating perfect 
conditions for a "raging inferno" if it sticks around for a week or 
more, according to Flannigan.
That stagnant pattern has developed because the jet stream is weakening 
as the Arctic warms, a phenomenon that could spell more bad news for 
B.C., he said.
"There is a suggestion [in the] research that...because of the way the 
Arctic ice is melting, that a favoured position for this ridge is along 
the West Coast. If that's the case, then odds are that we're going to 
see a lot of bad fire seasons in British Columbia," Flannigan said..
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-after-2-years-of-devastating-b-c-wildfires-1.4801181


[VOCs = Volatile Organic Compounds]
*A new permafrost gas mysterium 
<https://phys.org/news/2018-08-permafrost-gas-mysterium.html#jCp>*
August 27, 2018, University of Copenhagen
In a new scientific article published in the journal Nature 
Communications a group of scientists led by University of Copenhagen 
authors shows that thawing permafrost releases a high amount and 
diversity of volatile organic compounds (VOCs).
These compounds are not greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and 
methane. VOCs are known to be released from plants for example to cope 
with stress and to communicate with other organisms, but less is known 
about their release from soil. They react fast in the atmosphere and 
these reactions have several consequences. For example the production of 
ground level ozone, which is harmful for human health and toxic for 
forests....
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-permafrost-gas-mysterium.html#jCp
- - - - -
[Check the data - from Tamino]
*Arctic Heating <https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/>*
by tamino
News stories about the Arctic always seem to say either that the Arctic 
is warming twice as fast as the global average, or that it's warming 
nearly twice as fast as the global average. That's not correct. Arctic 
warming is more like three to four times as fast as global warming...
- - - -
The greater warming of the Arctic is obvious. While the globe as a whole 
has warmed about 1.1C (2F), Arctic temperature has gone up 3.2C (5.8F). 
That's 2.9 times as much...
- - - -
These data say that winter Arctic warming is 6.2 times as fast as winter 
global warming, while summer Arctic warming is only (!) 2.3 times as fast.
The faster Arctic rates from the Cowtan & Way data rather than the NASA 
data are due to the different ways they interpolate to cover the Arctic. 
I have more confidence in the Cowtan & Way data because they use Kriging 
to do so; it's an ingenious interpolation method which is far superior 
to others. Still, both data sets have their advantages and 
disadvantages; I'd say it's premature to say that one is definitely 
preferable to the other.
The bottom line is that any way you look at it, the Arctic is warming 
faster than the globe as a whole, and saying it's "twice as fast" is 
quite an understatement.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/
----
[very disturbing study of amplified complexity ]
*Scientists pinpoint the key mechanism foe amplification of global 
warming <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php>*
SCIENCE CHINA PRESS PUBLIC RELEASE: 28-AUG-2018
- - - - -
The researchers likewise reveal that increases in carbon dioxide and 
water vapor in the atmosphere mainly warm the surface through the air 
temperature feedback. They find that air temperature feedback amplifies 
the warming due to the direct radiative effect caused by the increase of 
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by a factor of 3-4. It also amplifies 
the surface warming due to the increase in atmospheric moisture from the 
period of 1984-1995 to 2002-2013. Most importantly, they find that the 
thermal-radiative coupling between the atmosphere and surface amplifies 
the signal of oceanic heat uptake, adding 2.5 W/m2 to the surface on top 
of 1.75 W/m2 due to a reduction of oceanic heat uptake between these two 
periods.
The authors further state that an implication of the study is that the 
amplification of the warming signals of these processes by the 
temperature feedback indicates that warming uncertainties related to the 
uncertainty of these processes can also be amplified. "For example, the 
uncertainty in the water vapor increase implies uncertainty in its 
warming signal, and this uncertainty is then amplified by the 
temperature feedback. Global warming uncertainty in climate model 
projections and observations are thus likely linked to the temperature 
feedback. Making the reduction of global warming uncertainty is a more 
inextricable task", said Sergio Sejas, one of the four authors of this 
study.
Overall, this observation based study corroborates the findings of a 
recent climate model based analysis showing that "the temperature 
feedback is responsible for most of the surface warming globally, 
accounting for nearly 76% of the global-mean surface warming" 
(https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1).
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php


[see the video]
*Climate change 'switchboard' visualization shows every country on the 
planet turning red-hot 
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/28/climate-change-switchboard-shows-every-country-on-the-planet-turning-red-hot/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0a1cdfc728c5>*
By Jason Samenow - August 28 at 12:59 PM
In presentations of global warming, sometimes watching maps morph from 
blue (cold) to red (hot) grows tiresome. Talented data visualizers are 
finding new and creative ways to illustrate the warming of the planet.
The latest visualization of the Earth heating up was built by Antti 
Lipponen, a research scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, 
and it has caught fire. Just since Saturday, it has been shared 16,000 
times on Twitter.  It reveals the majority of countries have warmed by 
at least one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), and all but one 
(Kiribati) have warmed by at least 0.5 degrees (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) 
since the late 1800s.
Maddie Stone, managing editor at Earther, aptly described the 
visualization as a "climate switchboard."
Lipponen's creation shows temperature trends for 191 countries over a 
rectangular grid. Each country is represented by a circle. The size of 
the circle indicates how much the temperature has changed relative to 
the average temperature between 1951 and 1980, using NASA data.,,
- - - -
Lipponen presented this same data a year ago using a different 
visualization style, in which each country's temperature relative to 
normal is a spoke that extends from a wheel and expands outward with 
time as the climate warms.
see at https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/35471910724/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/28/climate-change-switchboard-shows-every-country-on-the-planet-turning-red-hot


[Climate change to Russia - VICE on HBO video]
*Global Warming Is Increasing Russia's Profits, And Pollution 
<https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/global-warming-is-increasing-russias-profits-and-pollution/5a565d1f177dd479712cb0d1>*
Climate change is causing catastrophic changes to the planet, but it may 
be an economic blessing for Russia. As the Arctic ice melts at 
unprecedented levels, petroleum and mineral resources become more 
accessible. Russian oil companies are eager to take advantage of the 
resource. The Northern Sea Passage, a legendary shipping lane along 
Russia's arctic coastline, has been largely inaccessible because of the 
dense Sea Ice. But now, that ice is melting, opening up vast untouched 
reserves of oil gas and minerals. So, while much of the world fears the 
catastrophic effects of climate change, Russia is looking to capitalize 
on it. "The problem of climate change is actually the problem of 
adaptation to climate change.This is not a tragedy," said Nobel Prize 
Winning Climatologist Oleg Anisimov. "Certainly some places will become 
unlivable, but other areas are places that will become more livable." 
VICE's Gianna Toboni went to Murmasnk, a northwestern city in Russia to 
see how big Russia is betting on climate change
https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/global-warming-is-increasing-russias-profits-and-pollution/5a565d1f177dd479712cb0d1


[complexity squared]
*Scientists pinpoint the key mechanism foe amplification of global 
warming <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php>*
SCIENCE CHINA PRESS PUBLIC RELEASE: 28-AUG-2018
Since the advent of the industrial revolution in the early 19th century, 
increases in greenhouse gas emission are thought by scientists to have 
steadily driven the increase in global-mean surface temperature, known 
as global warming. This phenomenon is expected to affect humans through 
sea-level rise and frequent heat waves, among other adverse impacts. The 
high complexity of the climate system, however, has made it difficult 
for scientists to accurately predict the magnitude of global warming in 
the future and the severity of its impacts. Chief among the issues is 
that the complex interactions among the many components of the climate 
system amplify or suppress the warming triggered by the increase in 
greenhouse gases and unraveling these connections and their importance 
for global warming is difficult. A new study co-authored by Xiaoming Hu, 
Ming Cai, Song Yang, and Sergio Sejas published in SCIENCE CHINA Earth 
Sciences provides new insights into how these interactions amplify 
global warming.
- - - - -
The researchers likewise reveal that increases in carbon dioxide and 
water vapor in the atmosphere mainly warm the surface through the air 
temperature feedback. They find that air temperature feedback amplifies 
the warming due to the direct radiative effect caused by the increase of 
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by a factor of 3-4. It also amplifies 
the surface warming due to the increase in atmospheric moisture from the 
period of 1984-1995 to 2002-2013. Most importantly, they find that the 
thermal-radiative coupling between the atmosphere and surface amplifies 
the signal of oceanic heat uptake, adding 2.5 W/m2 to the surface on top 
of 1.75 W/m2 due to a reduction of oceanic heat uptake between these two 
periods.

The authors further state that an implication of the study is that the 
amplification of the warming signals of these processes by the 
temperature feedback indicates that warming uncertainties related to the 
uncertainty of these processes can also be amplified. "For example, the 
uncertainty in the water vapor increase implies uncertainty in its 
warming signal, and this uncertainty is then amplified by the 
temperature feedback. Global warming uncertainty in climate model 
projections and observations are thus likely linked to the temperature 
feedback. Making the reduction of global warming uncertainty is a more 
inextricable task", said Sergio Sejas, one of the four authors of this 
study.

Overall, this observation based study corroborates the findings of a 
recent climate model based analysis showing that "the temperature 
feedback is responsible for most of the surface warming globally, 
accounting for nearly 76% of the global-mean surface warming" 
(https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1).
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php


[Down under flames]
*Australia Is Bracing for an 'Insane Fire Season' 
<https://earther.gizmodo.com/australia-is-bracing-for-an-insane-fire-season-1828550060>*
Maddie Stone
As the U.S. grapples with one of its worst wildfire seasons on record, 
Australia is getting a head start on what looks to be an equally brutal 
year of bushfires.
Since early August - wintertime in the southern hemisphere-hundreds of 
bushfires have flared up in the Australian provinces of Queensland and 
New South Wales, prompting some local authorities to declare bushfire 
season open more than a month ahead of schedule. This freak fire lashing 
has experts extremely worried for what lies ahead as Australia 
transitions into spring and then summer.

"We're dreading what the rest of the season holds for us," former New 
South Wales Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Greg Mullins told 
Earther.

Fueling the flames is a drought that's been described as the worst in 
living memory. Last winter was Australia's hottest on record and the 
driest since 2002, and for large swaths of eastern and southern 
Australia, there's been little rain to slake the thirst since. About 60 
percent of Queensland is currently in drought. So is 100 percent of New 
South Wales, a province that produces a quarter of the nation's crops. 
Many of its fields are looking frighteningly brown...
- - - - -
For Mullins, who's been fighting bushfires since the early 1970s and 
whose father was a firefighter for over 60 years before him, decades of 
life experience tell him how profoundly the fire season has changed. He 
recalled how the onset of dangerous fire weather used to be far more 
predictable. Today, it's not only harder to say when a fire outbreak 
will occur, but the worst fires are on a scale nobody's prepared to fight.
"It's the new normal," Mullins said. "We can't handle it."
https://earther.gizmodo.com/australia-is-bracing-for-an-insane-fire-season-1828550060
- - - -
[see the pictures]
*Stunning aerial photos of the worst drought in Australia's living 
memory 
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/08/17/stunning-aerial-photos-of-the-worst-drought-in-australias-living-memory/?utm_term=.23a42d020274>*
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/08/17/stunning-aerial-photos-of-the-worst-drought-in-australias-living-memory/?utm_term=.23a42d020274


[I had to leave a comment 
<https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654>]
*The silver lining of fake news 
<https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news>*
Dr Kaitlin Naughten
It's different now. Denialism has spread into so many topics, and 
received so much attention, that reasonable people are now well aware of 
its existence. "You guys, did you know that there are people who don't 
believe in facts?!" is the gist of so many dinner conversations around 
the world these days. And the exhausted climate scientists sit back, 
twirl their spaghetti around their fork, and say "Yes, yes we know. So 
you've finally caught on."

This is the weird silver lining of fake news: reasonable people now take 
climate change more seriously. When they read bogus stories about global 
cooling and natural cycles and scientific conspiracies, they just say 
"Aha! These are the people who don't believe in facts." It's like the 
dystopia of 2018 has inoculated many of us against denialism. More and 
more people now understand and accept the science of climate change, 
even while those who don't grow louder and more desperate. Climate 
change deniers still exist, but it seems that their audience is shrinking.
(Of course, this doesn't mean we're actually doing anything about 
climate change.)
****

    comments:
    https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654
    Roger on August 28, 2018 at 12:55 pm said:
    "What you can't see won't hurt you." Climate scientists have only
    themselves to blame. It's not enough to yell out that the sky is
    falling; people must be told what to do, and that's not happening.

    Reply-
    Richard Pauli on August 28, 2018 at 4:49 pm said:
    No, you need to check history.
    As soon as climate studies became a significant force, scientists
    were told by PR manipulated media and by academic policy, told
    explicitly - NOT to mess with public policy - to leave that to
    politicians. AND within the university system they were brow-beaten
    and warned NOT to comment outside of their respective specialties.
    i.e. no scientific 'collusion'. So geologists and climatologist
    retreated to their specialty corners. It took a good while for them
    to fight back. And painfully. the field was made strongly
    bulltet-proof after a campaign to challenge every bit of climate
    data. I invite you to read all about it - via decades of climate
    science talk and presentations found in http://www.realclimate.org/
    Now, most climate science grad students get SOME training and
    exposure to media literacy. The barriers were significant until just
    a few years ago.
    And today. if you listen and read the presentations by climate
    scientists - there is always a line like "all this unless we halt
    all carbon emissions immediately" And quite often, specific
    recommendations.

https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654


*This Day in Climate History - August 30, 2005 
<http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm>- 
from D.R. Tucker*
August 30, 2005:
In an essay published in the Boston Globe, and republished the next day 
in the New York Times, Ross Gelbspan writes:
"The hurricane that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina by 
the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming."
http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm


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