[TheClimate.Vote] February 7, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Feb 7 09:49:26 EST 2018
/February 7, 2018/
[valve-turner jailed]
*Climate 'Hero' Gets Three-Year Prison Sentence for Shutting Down Tar
Sands Pipeline
<https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/02/06/climate-hero-gets-three-year-prison-sentence-shutting-down-tar-sands-pipeline>*
by Jessica Corbett
Michael Foster, the valve turner who temporarily halted the flow of tar
sands oil in TransCanada's Keystone pipeline in October 2016, called for
future actions to address the global climate crisis before he headed to
prison, where he is expected to serve at least a year of his three-year
sentence.
"Michael Foster isn't a criminal; he's a hero." - Dr. James Hansen
"It doesn't matter if I'm sitting in jail. What matters is stopping the
pollution," Foster, a 53-year-old mental health counselor from Seattle,
declared after his sentencing in North Dakota on Tuesday.
"If other people don't take action, mine makes no difference," he
continued. "And if they don't, the planet comes apart at the seams. The
only way what I did matters is if people are stopping the poison."
Although others who participated in the multi-state #ShutItDown action
two years ago have beenallowed
<https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/10/17/victory-valve-turners-judge-allows-necessity-defense-climate-trial>
to present a "necessity defense
<https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/03/10/their-trials-begins-climate-protecting-valve-turners-say-shut-it-down-necessity>"
- or argue they believed their act was "necessary to avoid or minimize a
harm" that was "greater than the harm resulting from the violation of
the law" - Judge Laurie A. Fontaine rejected
<https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/10/05/barred-testifying-valve-turners-renowned-climate-scientist-speaks-out>
such a defense for Foster and Sam Jessup, who filmed Foster's action and
received a two-year deferred prison sentence with supervised probation...
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/02/06/climate-hero-gets-three-year-prison-sentence-shutting-down-tar-sands-pipeline
[October 2017]
*Barred From Testifying for 'Valve Turners,' Renowned Climate Scientist
Speaks Out
<https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/10/05/barred-testifying-valve-turners-renowned-climate-scientist-speaks-out>*
To challenge "idiocy that we have in Washington," Dr. James Hansen
argues climate activists have compelling case their protests are
necessary to save planet
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/10/05/barred-testifying-valve-turners-renowned-climate-scientist-speaks-out
[Candidate says]
*Florida Should Sue Oil Industry for Climate Impacts, Candidate for
Governor Says
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/02/06/florida-climate-impacts-lawsuit-philip-levine/>*
By Ucilia Wang
In a state pummeled by the effects of climate change, yet full of
leaders who would rather talk about just about anything else, one
candidate for governor has already taken a bold stance heading into the
election later this year.
Philip Levine, a Democrat and former mayor of Miami Beach, has suggested
that the state should tackle climate change by suing fossil fuel
companies the way states took on the tobacco industry in the 1990s.
"What I've experienced for many years is that the rising sea levels all
over our city are causing a tremendous amount of damage to our
communities," said Levine. "It's my belief that we should examine the
potential to go after fossil fuel companies to help pay for the
resiliency efforts that our state will have to take because of climate
change."
Many of Florida's political leaders in the state capitol deny or ignore
the science
<http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article154026974.html>that
pins the vast majority of the blame for global warming on fossil fuel
burning. The state's environmental agency banned the use
<http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html> of
"climate change" in its email, reports and policies.
Yet this southern state is a favorite landing pad for intense hurricanes
and the invading sea. The Florida Keys is looking at raising its roads
<http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article197735369.html>
to beat the rising sea levels, and early estimates peg the cost at
several million dollars per mile. Intruding salt water also threatens
<http://www.ces.fau.edu/arctic-florida/pdfs/meagan-weisner.pdf> the
state's fresh water supplies and its tourism industry...
During this election year, however, state residents will hear more about
the urgency of addressing climate change from candidates for statewide
offices. Some of the candidates
<http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/taking-names-scott-maxwell/os-graham-putnam-gillum-king-desantis-levine-scott-maxwell-20180201-story.html>
are making the issue part of their platforms...
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/02/06/florida-climate-impacts-lawsuit-philip-levine/
[Data CO2 levels]
*Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide CO2 PPM Snapshot – January 2018
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/02/unforced-variations-feb-2018/#comment-690399>*
Based on NOAA's ESRL 'Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide' data, in
particular 'Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data'
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html
January 2018 continues the record breaking growth of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Current estimates for the January monthly mean are ~408 ppm – another
Record Making High for January has been set (once the final figures are
published.)
408 ppm is +1.18 higher than last month (Dec 2017), and is +1.87 above
the previous record high for January of 406.13 ppm (Jan 2017).
408 ppm is +22.45 higher than a decade ago when CO2 was only 385.52 ppm
in January 2008.
This indicates an average growth rate of +2.25 ppm per year for the
month of January.
This means that the 2017-2018 growth rate of +1.87/yr is -0.38 (or
16.9%) below the January average. This is not a significant deviation
from the long term trend.
In fact it represents a recent short-term annual Growth Rate of +2.67
PPM for January in the last 3 years. Significantly higher than the
decadal growth rate of +2.25 per year (above).
The lowest increase of CO2 from one month to the next is typically
January to February. On average February is only 0.86 ppm higher than
January.
This means that next months Average Mean is likely to be about 409 ppm –
still a new Record High for February. Therefore Record weekly mean
averages near or above 410 ppm may occur this month.
The all time Record Weekly Mean is 410.36 ppm in May, 2017. The only
Month CO2 concentration has been above 410 ppm for millions and millions
of years.
January's 408 ppm is the 4th highest Monthly Mean CO2 PPM in the
instrumental record – behind April-May-June 2017.
January 2018 is the 8th time the Monthly Mean CO2 PPM has been above 407
ppm.
January 2018 is the 14th time the Monthly Mean CO2 PPM has been above
405 ppm.
2015 was the last time the January Monthly Mean CO2 PPM Reading was
below 400 ppm.
James Hansen 2017 COP23 said: "Basically humanity needs energy. And the
countries are going to do what is best for the economic well-being of
their people. And they are going to burn the fuels that are available
and what is the cheapest fuels. And that's what we have to look at –
it's 'cheapest' this day ONLY IF WE IGNORE the long term consequences."
https://youtu.be/S7z61UZoppM?t=20m51s
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/02/unforced-variations-feb-2018/#comment-690399
[Why is it really cold?]
*Polar Vortex: How the Jet Stream and Climate Change Bring on Cold Snaps
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/cold-weather-polar-vortex-jet-stream-explained-global-warming-arctic-ice-climate-change>*
It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming plays a role in
blasts of bitter cold weather. The reason: It influences the jet stream.
Here's how.
By Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News
The jet stream - a powerful river of wind high in the atmosphere -
shapes the Northern Hemisphere's weather, including bitter cold snaps.
Because it plays a key role in weather extremes, climate scientists are
striving to understand its changing dynamics.
Here's a closer look at what the jet stream is, what's influencing its
wobbly behavior and why it matters.
*First things first: What is the jet stream?*
The jet stream races from west to east at speeds up to 275 miles an
hour, undulating north and south as it goes.
This powerful river of wind transports moisture and moves masses of cold
and warm air and storm systems along its path. During the hurricane
season, it sometimes helps push Atlantic tropical storms away from the
East Coast.
The northern polar jet stream (it has a counterpart in the Southern
Hemisphere) is driven partly by the temperature contrast between masses
of icy air over the North Pole and warmer air near the equator. Climate
change, true to the predictions of the past half century, has led to
faster warming in the Arctic than in the temperate zones. So the
temperature difference between the two regions has been lessening.
Research suggests that this reduction in the temperature difference is
robbing the jet stream of some of its strength, making it wobblier and
contributing to more temperature extremes.
*What's the jet stream's role in extreme weather?*
The jet stream is strongest in winter, when it has the greatest effect
on weather in more densely populated parts of North America and Eurasia.
When it rolls along in relatively steady waves, normal weather ensues,
with spells of cold, snow and intermittent warm-ups.
But when it coils far to the south, bitter cold Arctic air spills
southward along with it.
Wriggling like a garden hose, each southward kink in the wind tends to
be balanced out by a northward bend somewhere else. That can lead to the
western states, even Alaska, being unusually warm and dry while the
middle of the country and the eastern states freeze.
*How is the jet stream changing?*
Research shows that over the past several decades, the jet stream has
weakened. There's also evidence that as it wobbles, it can get stuck out
of kilter, which can lead to more persistent weather extremes, including
heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and flooding.
Scientists say there is strong evidence that human-caused global warming
has altered the strength and path of the powerful winds...
[more]
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/cold-weather-polar-vortex-jet-stream-explained-global-warming-arctic-ice-climate-change
[Weather Channel/Peter Sinclair]
*Killing Clean: Weather Channel Explores The War on Clean Energy
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/02/06/killing-clean-weather-channel-explores-the-war-on-clean-energy/>*
If you're pressed for time, go to 5:50 to get a good look at what the
Koch Brothers war on clean energy looks and sounds like.
Kait Parker kills it in this examination of Big Fossil's guerrilla war
against renewable energy. -
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/02/06/killing-clean-weather-channel-explores-the-war-on-clean-energy/
[Wind]
*In West Texas Where Wind Power Means Jobs, Climate Talk Is Beside the
Point
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26122017/wind-energy-jobs-booming-texas-clean-renewable-power-climate-change>*
Wind turbines bring jobs, tax dollars for new schools, income security
for farmers and energy independence. To these Texans, climate change has
little to do with it.
By Meera Subramanian, InsideClimate News
With one more hoist, I could look out the hatch that opened up to
the sky, the blades reaching to infinity, airplane wings on end.
This is what everyone I spoke to in the wind industry loves the most
about this work. It is the exact opposite of descending deep into
the earth to mine coal in shafts no taller than the height of a
small child. There is risk to wind work - an arc flash, a long fall
- but never the prospect of being trapped underground for days as
there is with coal. There are no oil leaks that can't be staunched.
It felt like freedom. Energy freedom. Professional freedom. Economic
freedom. Our turbine's blades were still, but I could see dozens of
others spinning along the horizon below, the wind that blew through
them altered, molecules shifted.
"It's breathless," was how student Johnathon McCarthy, a 28-year-old
West Virginian who served in Afghanistan as a Marine, described being up
there. "You see other turbines around you spinning. You see the cars
that are just this small. You see the people down there and they're even
smaller, like ants. You just feel like you're on top of the world."
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wind technician is
currently the second-fastest growing job in America.
The best places for wind are often the places that are struggling to
keep rural communities alive...
"What was advanced yesterday is no longer advanced today," he said as we
slowly descended, "and what's advanced today will no longer be advanced
tomorrow. Same way with wind turbines; they're always advancing."
Periodically, light slipped through into our confined space,
illuminating his face.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26122017/wind-energy-jobs-booming-texas-clean-renewable-power-climate-change
[Lawsuit]
*Trump's Arctic Oil, Gas Lease Sale Violated Environmental Rules,
Lawsuits Claim
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/arctic-oil-gas-lease-sale-violated-nepa-environmental-rules-petroleum-reserve-lawsuit>*
Earthjustice and other groups say the National Petroleum Reserve lease
sale failed to consider how burning the fossil fuels might impact
climate change.
By Sabrina Shankman
An expanding legal campaign to force federal agencies to take climate
change into account when making big energy decisions has a new frontier:
Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve.
Environmentalists on Friday challenged a record-breaking oil and gas
lease sale there by the Trump administration, which offered up 10
million acres for drilling in December.
In a pair of lawsuits, environmental groups argued that the lease sale
broke a key law by ignoring climate and other environmental impacts.
In one of the suits, the environmental law organization Earthjustice and
the plaintiffs it represents argued that the Trump administration had
violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) by failing to
consider how the greenhouse gas emissions from burning the fossil fuels
from the Arctic tracts might impact climate change.
"NEPA requires agencies to take a hard look at the effects of their
actions," said Rebecca Noblin, a staff attorney with Earthjustice.
"There have been a lot of courts lately that have said that if this is a
fossil fuel project, that includes the effects of burning fossil fuels.
The agency just hasn't done that here."
The National Petroleum Reserve Area in Alaska
Earthjustice's lawsuit is just the latest to make that case.
"Over the years, there have been many court decisions saying that
greenhouse gas emissions should be considered in Environmental Impact
Statements," said Michael Gerrard, the director of the Sabin Center for
Climate Change Law at Columbia University. "The pace of those decisions
has really been picking up lately."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/arctic-oil-gas-lease-sale-violated-nepa-environmental-rules-petroleum-reserve-lawsuit
[point - counterpoint]
*Ep 20: Dave Roberts on conservatives and climate change
<http://evidencesquared.com/ep20/>*
We talk to David Roberts from Vox about the intractability of
conservatives on climate change and whether polarization is something to
be avoided or embraced.
You can listen to our episode at http://evidencesquared.com/ep20/ or
download it directly fromiTunes
<https://evidencesquared.us15.list-manage.com/track/click?u=8a0f5ded9e53e63b39b708165&id=178a52dfb2&e=0b49e9050f>
or Soundcloud
<https://evidencesquared.us15.list-manage.com/track/click?u=8a0f5ded9e53e63b39b708165&id=b12f4afe19&e=0b49e9050f>.
http://evidencesquared.com/ep20/
[counterpoint - point]
*Study: Leftists just as likely to be dogmatic authoritarians as those
on the right
<http://www.psypost.org/2018/01/study-leftists-just-likely-dogmatic-authoritarians-right-50674>*
New research provides evidence that left-wing authoritarian attitudes
exist in the United States. The preliminary findings, published in the
scientific journal Political Psychology, suggest liberals could be just
as likely to be authoritarians as conservatives.
"Political ideology in general is one of the most important and
predictive variables in human psychology," said study author Lucian
Gideon Conway, an associate professor of psychology at the University of
Montana.
http://www.psypost.org/2018/01/study-leftists-just-likely-dogmatic-authoritarians-right-50674
[YouTube video]
*Critical Thinking Cafe <https://youtu.be/XAp1Foj7BzY>*
UQx Denial101x Making Sense of Climate Science Denial
Video abstract for paper "Deconstructing climate misinformation to
identify reasoning errors" published in Environmental Research Letters
by John Cook, Peter Ellerton, and David Kinkead.
Full paper at http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa49f
https://youtu.be/XAp1Foj7BzY
-
[reasoning]
*Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
<http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa49f>*
Abstract
Misinformation can have significant societal consequences. For
example, misinformation about climate change has confused the public
and stalled support for mitigation policies. When people lack the
expertise and skill to evaluate the science behind a claim, they
typically rely on heuristics such as substituting judgment about
something complex (i.e. climate science) with judgment about
something simple (i.e. the character of people who speak about
climate science) and are therefore vulnerable to misleading
information. Inoculation theory offers one approach to effectively
neutralize the influence of misinformation. Typically, inoculations
convey resistance by providing people with information that counters
misinformation. In contrast, we propose inoculating against
misinformation by explaining the fallacious reasoning within
misleading denialist claims. We offer a strategy based on critical
thinking methods to analyse and detect poor reasoning within
denialist claims. This strategy includes detailing argument
structure, determining the truth of the premises, and checking for
validity, hidden premises, or ambiguous language. Focusing on
argument structure also facilitates the identification of reasoning
fallacies by locating them in the reasoning process. Because this
reason-based form of inoculation is based on general critical
thinking methods, it offers the distinct advantage of being
accessible to those who lack expertise in climate science. We
applied this approach to 42 common denialist claims and find that
they all demonstrate fallacious reasoning and fail to refute the
scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. This
comprehensive deconstruction and refutation of the most common
denialist claims about climate change is designed to act as a
resource for communicators and educators who teach climate science
and/or critical thinking.
Full PDF article
<http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa49f/pdf>
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa49f/pdf
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa49f
[Andy Miles]
*The Science Of Global Warming And The Causes & Prevention Of Climate
Change (Part 1)
<https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/03/science-global-warming-causes-prevention-climate-change-part-1/>*
...As individuals, we need to look at our own lifestyle to reduce our
use of energy and maximize our energy efficiency...People also need to
stop voting for irrational politicians like Trump in the US, and the
Tories in the UK.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/03/science-global-warming-causes-prevention-climate-change-part-1/
-
*The Science Of Global Warming And The Causes & Prevention Of Climate
Change (Part 2)
<https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/04/science-global-warming-causes-prevention-climate-change-part-2/>*
...Unless these governments change their ways, or are removed at the
ballot box, there is little hope for the future of this planet for
future generations. We all need to do everything in our power to wake
the collective human mind from its slumber, before we sleepwalk off the
cliff.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/04/science-global-warming-causes-prevention-climate-change-part-2/
[advertising agency]
*Rosapark's Global Warming Warning
<https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/314054/rosaparks-global-warming-warning.html>*
by Larissa Faw
After the recent flooding in Paris, France-based agency Rosapark
approached the GoodPlanet foundation about an out-of-home activation to
raise awareness for climate change.
The Zouave statue, a monument set next to the Pont de l'Alma along the
Seine, and the city's gage for measuring the river's rising level, has
been outfitted it with a giant life vest and banner reading "Get Ready
for Global Warming."
This was an internal passion project for the agency. Two days ago,
agency executives presented the idea to Yann Arthus-Bertrand and his
foundation.
"As a communications agency, it's our duty to spread the word to the
maximum number of people. We need to take action, at all levels," says
an agency spokesperson.
This isn't the first time the agency has waded into political messaging.
Rosapark has been active in social messaging, in particular, with
Innocence en Danger, an NGO aimed at protecting children from all forms
of sexual abuse.
As of now, there are no plans to expand this project to others cities or
statues.
"But we'd be more than happy to do more," says the spokesperson, adding
the activation will hopefully remain up until "someone" takes off the
jacket.
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/314054/rosaparks-global-warming-warning.html
[Carbon outlook]
*New EIA forecast subtitled: We are EFFed …
<http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/02/06/new-eia-forecast-subtitled-we-are-effed/>*
February 6th, 2018
The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook
<https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018_FINAL_PDF.pdf> has been
released and one's hope, on first glance, is that this forecast is just
as off as so much of energy forecasting has been
<http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/01/19/when-it-comes-to-renewable-energy-forecasting-japans-follows-world-lead/>
because, if this is accurate, the simplest summary of this might be:
The United States and humanity is EFFed when it comes to an opportunity
to mitigate climate change through reduced energy emissions.
The critiques of EIA forecasting abound (see short bibliography here).
Adam Scott well captured the situation last September in discussing the
just-released International Energy Outlook (IEO).
http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/02/06/new-eia-forecast-subtitled-we-are-effed/
-
*When it comes to renewable energy forecasting, Japan's forecasting
follows world lead
<http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/01/19/when-it-comes-to-renewable-energy-forecasting-japans-follows-world-lead/>*
January 19th, 2018 · 1 Comment
While many reasons exist for this, a simple reality: *every single major
forecasting institution (both public and private) has consistently,
since roughly the turn of the century, under forecast future progress in
solar and wind energy.*..Forecasts have consistently (and often quite
significantly) projected much higher costs and much lower deployments
than what has occurred in the real world.
http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/01/19/when-it-comes-to-renewable-energy-forecasting-japans-follows-world-lead/
[snark]
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 6, 2018
Contact:
David Turnbull, david [at] priceofoil [dot] org
Lorne Stockman, lorne [at] priceofoil [dot] org
*EIA: Once again projecting a future that will not come*
<http://priceofoil.org/2018/02/06/eia-once-again-projecting-a-future-that-will-not-come/>
Today the Energy Information Administration, now led by former Marathon
Oil Vice President Dr. Linda Capuano, released its "Annual Energy
Outlook 2018." In response, David Turnbull, Strategic Communications
Director at Oil Change International, released the following statement:
"Today's EIA Annual Energy Outlook projects an energy future with
continued fossil fuel reliance, which would result in climate
catastrophe. Knowing what we know about the EIA, this is actually good news.
"EIA has a terrible history of vastly underestimating renewable energy
growth, while in reality wind and solar energy continue to exhibit
explosive growth far outpacing EIA outlooks. Meanwhile it continues to
give the coal industry a lifeline in its projections while reality has
shown a continuing decline for the industry.
"Given EIA's shoddy track record, today's Annual Energy Outlook
projecting climate doom leaves us feeling quite confident that we'll
continue to kick our fossil fuel addiction and tackle our climate crisis."
###
http://priceofoil.org/2018/02/06/eia-once-again-projecting-a-future-that-will-not-come/
[painful listen 2007]
*This Day in Climate History February 7, 2007
<http://youtu.be/5k267NdmiFY> - from D.R. Tucker*
February 7, 2007: Air America host Betsy Rosenberg and Competitive
Enterprise Institute representative Chris Horner discuss the recently
released 4th IPCC report on the Fox News Channel program "Hannity and
Colmes."
Betsy Rosenberg, host of "Ecotalk" on Air America Radio, braves the
muddy waters of H&C to speak while the caption "Warming Hysteria?" hangs
on the screen. Note the full-screen time given Betsy vs. the
disingenuous industry shill.
http://youtu.be/5k267NdmiFY
/
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