[TheClimate.Vote] January 18, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Jan 18 08:53:15 EST 2018
/January 18, 2018/
*US unilateralism makes tacking climate change harder, WEF warns
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/17/us-unilateralism-makes-tacking-climate-change-harder-wef-warns>*
Donald Trump's time in office has coincided with huge increase to all
five eco risks surveyed
The World Economic Forum delivered a strong warning about Donald Trump's
go-it-alone approach to tackling climate change as it highlighted the
growing threat of environmental collapse in its annual assessment of the
risks facing the international community.
In the run-up to the US president's speech to its annual meeting in
Davos, Switzerland, next week, the WEF avoided mentioning Trump by name
but said "nation-state unilateralism" would make it harder to tackle
global warming and ecological damage.
The WEF's global risks perception survey showed Trump's arrival in the
White House in 2017 had coincided with a marked increase in concern
about The environment among experts polled by the Swiss-based organisation.
It said all five environmental risks covered by the survey - extreme
weather events, natural disasters, failure of climate-change mitigation
and adaptation, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and human-made
natural disasters - had become more prominent.
"This follows a year characterised by high-impact hurricanes, extreme
temperatures and the first rise in CO2 emissions for four years. We have
been pushing our planet to the brink and the damage is becoming
increasingly clear.
"Biodiversity is being lost at mass-extinction rates, agricultural
systems are under strain, and pollution of the air and sea has become an
increasingly pressing threat to human health."
"We have to work together - that is the key to preventing crises and
making the world more resilient for current and future generations.
Humanity cannot successfully deal with the multiplicity of challenges we
face either sequentially or in isolation."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/17/us-unilateralism-makes-tacking-climate-change-harder-wef-warns
[Not horrible - maybe]
*Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible, says study
<https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study>*
Earth's surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees
Celsius by 2100, according to a study which, if correct, voids
worst-case UN climate change predictions.
A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet's
temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by
more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal
Nature.
"Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate
sensitivities," said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the
University of Exeter.
How effectively the world slashes CO2 and methane emissions, improves
energy efficiency and develops technologies to remove CO2 from the air
will determine whether climate change remains manageable or unleashes a
maelstrom of human misery.
But uncertainty about how hot things will get also stems from the
inability of scientists to nail down a very simple question: By how much
will Earth's average surface temperature go up if the amount of CO2 in
the atmosphere is doubled?
That "known unknown" is called equilibrium climate sensitivity, and for
the last 25 years the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -
the ultimate authority on climate science - has settled on a range of
1.5C to 4.5C (2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit).
Cox and colleagues, using a new methodology, have come up with a far
narrower range: 2.2C to 3.4C, with a best estimate of 2.8C.
If accurate, it precludes the most destructive doomsday scenarios.
"These scientists have produced a more accurate estimate of how the
planet will respond to increasing CO2 levels," said Piers Forster,
director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the
University of Leeds.
Gabi Hegerl, a climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh who,
like Forster, did not take part in the research, added: "Having lower
probability for very high sensitivity is reassuring. Very high
sensitivity would have made it extremely hard to limit climate change
according to the Paris targets."...
Findings should not be seen as taking pressure off need to tackle
climate change, authors warn
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study
-
[3 Degrees C National Geographic]
3 Degrees Warmer: Heat Wave Fatalities Video <https://youtu.be/6rdLu7wiZOE>
If the world warms by three degrees the Mediterranean and parts of
Europe will wither in the summer's heat.
https://youtu.be/6rdLu7wiZOE
[Psych]
*Researchers explore psychological effects of climate change
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180117164010.htm>*
Wildfires, extreme storms and major weather events can seem like a
distant threat, but for those whose lives have been directly impacted by
these events, the threat hits much closer to home.
As reports of such incidents continue to rise, researchers at the
University of Arizona set out to learn more about how people's
perception of the threat of global climate change affects their mental
health. They found that while some people have little anxiety about the
Earth's changing climate, others are experiencing high levels of stress,
and even depression, based on their perception of the threat of global
climate change.
While significant research has explored the environmental impacts of
climate change, far fewer studies have considered its psychological
effect on humans, said UA researcher Sabrina Helm, an associate
professor of family and consumer science in the UA's Norton School of
Family and Consumer Sciences in the College of Agriculture and Life
Sciences.
Helm and her colleagues found that psychological responses to climate
change seem to vary based on what type of concern people show for the
environment, with those highly concerned about the planet's animals and
plants experiencing the most stress.
The researchers outline in a new study, which appears in the journal
Global Environmental Change, three distinct types of environmental
concern: Egoistic concern is concern about how what's happening in the
environment directly impacts the individual; for example, a person might
worry about how air pollution will affect their own lungs and breathing.
Altruistic concern refers to concern for humanity in general, including
future generations. Biospheric concern refers to concern for nature,
plants and animals...
"Climate change has evident physical and mental health effects if you
look at certain outcomes, such as the hurricanes we had last year, but
we also need to pay very close attention to the mental health of people
in everyday life, as we can see this, potentially, as a creeping
development," Helm said. "Understanding that there are differences in
how people are motivated is very important for finding ways to address
this, whether in the form of intervention or prevention."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180117164010.htm
-
[Environmental Melancholia]
Register Now <https://pincsf.org/civicrm/event/register?id=195&reset=1>-
location: San Francisco
*Environmental Melancholia: Psychoanalysis for a Warming Planet
<https://pincsf.org/civicrm/event/info?reset=1&id=195>*
Renee Lertzman, Ph.D., Discussant Thomas Rosbrow, Ph.D.
Thursday Jan. 25, 7:30 PM - 9:00 PM
Does psychoanalytic work hold a key for addressing some of the most
urgent survival issues facing our planet today? Is the primary reason
more of us are not acting on behalf of our environment possibly due to
an underlying "environmental melancholia," where identifying
opportunities for agency and repair are difficult? If so, what can be
done about this? Renee Lertzman, author of Environmental Melancholia:
Psychoanalytic Dimensions of Environmental Engagement explores these
questions and more. Dr. Lertzman bridges psychoanalytic research and
environmental work, pioneering ideas regarding the the role that both
psychoanalytic thought and it's practitioners have in meeting our most
severe ecological crises. Through conversation with Dr. Thomas Rosbrow,
participants will learn about Lertzman's theory of environmental
melancholia, specific examples of how psychoanalytic insights can
actively be supporting those on the front lines of engagement, and why
the psychoanalytic community is needed now, more than ever, to evolve
our concepts of what it means to work both inside and outside the
consulting room.
https://pincsf.org/civicrm/event/info?reset=1&id=195
[Pass the mosquito repellent]
*Scientists Race to Kill Mosquitoes Before They Kill Us
<https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/scientists-race-kill-mosquitoes-they-kill-us>*
Three-fourths of the U.S. is now at risk for Zika, West Nile, and other
tropical diseases
BY SARA NOVAK | JAN 9 2018
Since West Nile virus made its debut in New York City over a decade ago,
outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, especially West Nile virus, have
become increasingly commonplace. As temperatures reach new highs as a
result of global climate change, mosquitoes that once called the tropics
home find the United States just as habitable. From the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention found that Aedes aegypti—which is capable
of transmitting the Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses—could find
suitable breeding habitats in 75 percent of the contiguous United States.
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/scientists-race-kill-mosquitoes-they-kill-us
-
[Zika Virus]
*Potential Range in the US (Maps)
<https://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html>*
Estimated range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the United
States, 2017*
https://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html
[National Geographic]
*Venomous Sea Snake Found Off California—How'd It Get There?
<https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/animals-snakes-climate-change-oceans/>*
The yellow-bellied sea snake has the widest range of any snake on the
planet. And if the last few years are any indication, its range might be
getting even bigger—thanks to climate change.
In January, one of the highly venomous, brightly colored serpents washed
up on southern California's Newport Beach—only the fifth such snake ever
recorded in the region.
Native to the world's tropical oceans, the reptile was several hundred
miles north of its typical range, from southern Mexico north to Baja
California. It follows three others that washed up in the winters of
2015 and 2016, and a fourth from 1972....
he species is happiest in waters above 65 or 66 degrees Fahrenheit; any
colder and they're unable to digest food. Still, because ocean currents
largely dictate their movements, the reptiles sometimes float outside of
their preferred habitat, Lillywhite explains.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/animals-snakes-climate-change-oceans/
[The Guardian]
*Qantas worst airline operating across Pacific for CO2 emissions,
analysis reveals
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/17/qantas-worst-airline-operating-across-pacific-for-co2-emissions-analysis-reveals>*
Aviation currently accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon dioxide
emissions. But pollution from the industry is expected to increase and,
by 2050, use up a quarter of the allowable greenhouse gas emissions if
the world is to keep global warming at less than 1.5C - the world's
"carbon budget".
Qantas used the two most fuel-intensive aircraft and carried the most
empty seats of any transpacific airline.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/17/qantas-worst-airline-operating-across-pacific-for-co2-emissions-analysis-reveals
[TED video]
*COULD BIODIVERSITY DESTRUCTION LEAD TO A GLOBAL TIPPING POINT?
<http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/could_biodiversity_destruction_lead_to_a_global_tipping_point>*
We are destroying the world's biodiversity. Yet debate has erupted over
just what this means for the planet - and us...
Just over 250 million years ago, the planet suffered what may be
described as its greatest holocaust: ninety-six percent of marine genera
(plural of genus) and seventy percent of land vertebrate vanished for
good. Even insects suffered a mass extinction - the only time before or
since. Entire classes of animals - like trilobites - went out like a
match in the wind.
But what's arguably most fascinating about this event - known as the
Permian-Triassic extinction or more poetically, the Great Dying - is the
fact that anything survived at all. Life, it seems, is so ridiculously
adaptable that not only did thousands of species make it through
whatever killed off nearly everything (no one knows for certain though
theories abound) but, somehow, after millions of years life even
recovered and went on to write new tales...
TED Talk - August 2010
*Video: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our development
<https://youtu.be/RgqtrlixYR4>*
Human growth has strained the Earth's resources, but as Johan
Rockstrom reminds us, our advances also give us the science to
recognize this and change behavior. His research has found nine
"planetary boundaries" that can guide us in protecting our planet's
many overlapping ecosystems.
https://youtu.be/RgqtrlixYR4
According to Rockstrom, biodiversity is one of the pillars supporting
our planet - and if too much biodiversity is lost we risk "triggering a
tipping point" in our climate or oceans, which in turn could risk
pushing the planet into a new state.
"Without biodiversity, no ecosystems. No ecosystems, no biomes. No
biomes, no living regulator of all the cycles of carbon, nitrogen,
oxygen, carbon dioxide and water," he added.
Rockstrom says biodiversity loss could risk the "safe operating space"
for humans, leaving us in an alien world increasingly hostile to our own
survival. For example, life would still survive under apocalyptic
climate change - but we may not.
While ecosystems may not fully collapse, scientists have found that some
ecosystems can undergo what they are called "regime shifts." Coral
reefs, overheated by climate change, will shift to a much less
productive, much less biodiverse algae-based ecosystem. Climate change,
or alternatively humans with chainsaws and fire, can shift forest
ecosystems to grasslands. While none of these ecosystems may wholly
collapse, they will look nothing like they did after the shift occurs...
Yes, life itself survived the Permian-Triassic mass extinction event -
but most species did not. Believe me, humans probably wouldn't have
survived the tens-of-millions of years that followed the Great Dying:
oxygen levels were dangerously low, food would have been scarce, and the
world would have looked largely barren and wasted even as some species
and ecosystems managed to survive. Outside the moral dilemma of
extinction, there is no question that if humans push more-and-more
species into oblivion there will be impacts on our society - and they
could become catastrophic.
Humans evolved 248 million years later in an Earth that was far more
biodiverse and rich, a kind of Eden of abundance and diversity. But our
current actions risk all that - and perhaps ourselves.
http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/could_biodiversity_destruction_lead_to_a_global_tipping_point
[Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)]
*Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements
<https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-about/>*
*Key Finding 1*
Positive feedbacks (self-reinforcing cycles) within the climate system
have the potential to accelerate human-induced climate change and even
shift the Earth's climate system, in part or in whole, into new states
that are very different from those experienced in the recent past (for
example, ones with greatly diminished ice sheets or different
large-scale patterns of atmosphere or ocean circulation). Some feedbacks
and potential state shifts can be modeled and quantified; others can be
modeled or identified but not quantified; and some are probably still
unknown. (Very high confidence in the potential for state shifts and in
the incompleteness of knowledge about feedbacks and potential state shifts).
*Key Finding 2
*The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such
as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry
conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of
snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts
(very high confidence). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal
correlation between extreme events.
*Key FInding 3
*While climate models incorporate important climate processes that can
be well quantified, they do not include all of the processes that can
contribute to feedbacks, compound extreme events, and abrupt and/or
irreversible changes. For this reason, future changes outside the range
projected by climate models cannot be ruled out (very high confidence).
Moreover, the systematic tendency of climate models to underestimate
temperature change during warm paleoclimates suggests that climate
models are more likely to underestimate than to overestimate the amount
of long-term future change (medium confidence).
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-about/
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate
Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J.
Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change
Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp.
[LALE DAVIDSON: Poem]*
**Requiem for a dying civilization
<http://blog.timesunion.com/laledavidson/2018/01/16/requiem-for-a-dying-civilization/>*
After the hurricanes in the east
and the fires in the west
I'm still waiting for the small, quiet voice
of sanity to return to our nation.
As the camera moves slowly over incinerated
neighborhoods, ash crescents
on a nation's forehead,
lone firs miraculously untouched
as if nature spared its own,
I keep waiting for that still, small voice
to rise like the wind.
It is lonely out here, in the real,
though there are many of us of all colors arguing
about the best way to proceed,
while the rest of our nation is glued to the dark glass
of Fox News, that solitary stream of conspiracy theory,
that thinly veiled propaganda headset
willingly donned by a third of our country,
telling them that blue is red, and red is white,
somehow inoculating the nation against
legitimate outrage at collusion with foreign governments,
to win an election, sexual molestation, affairs with porn stars,
and profiteering from the White House.
Seeing their denial is no longer working,
their lies steadily disproved by Justice's inexorable advance,
uncovering three bad actors, and searching for more,
they seek to smear Justice's face
with deep state theory,
to stuff the ears of their listeners
with tyranny's cotton.
The watchers are as convinced of their truth as we are,
though untruth's perpetrators are more sinister.
Our truths are gleaned from many sources,
hard fought, and hard won,
tracking facts like bear and grouse through the woods.
Our strength is our weakness.
Precisely because we don't agree and are willing see many sides,
we are unable to bar the door against those
who round up brown skinned people, tear parents
from children, deposit the starving to their deserts, block health care,
and call all of this the reclamation of greatness.
How can there be any doubt that a day's labor should pay a living wage?
That the wealthy shouldn't be allowed to hoard while the poor starve?
That we must take steps to save the planet or perish, ourselves?
Why doesn't the voice of compassion and sanity carry?
At the Wild Center, near Lake Placid, I stood in a wood surrounded
by voices of men and women singing,
a chorale composed and reverberating through speakers affixed high
and low
to trees. Humanity's genius for beauty encompassed us,
lifted us, wove us into its fabric,
as we walked waxen needle paths among
trees who punctuate space with their rough bark and slow wisdom
so that we can feel space more roundly,
reminding us that when we choose kindness over fear,
we all benefit.
After civilization is long gone, and we are but brutal gangs raiding
each other,
beauty and art will point the way back
to the heaven we almost,
and might once again,
have on earth.
Lale Davidson, who teaches writing at SUNY Adirondack College, where
they still believe in free speech, welcomes your comments
<http://blog.timesunion.com/laledavidson/2018/01/16/requiem-for-a-dying-civilization/>
whether you agree or disagree, as long as you are motivated by a desire
to promote greater understanding. If you want your comment posted,
please the observe civil speech guidelines described in a previous post
"*Why argue?
<http://blog.timesunion.com/laledavidson/2016/02/02/why-argue/>* In
short: be polite, substantiate your claims with credible sources, and
avoid logical fallacies such as personal attacks, slippery slopes, red
herrings and sweeping generalizations. Belittling, insulting,
inflammatory, flippant and off topic comments will not see the light of
day here. Words matter. Use them well.
[Speaking Notes #9]
OXFORD CHANGE AGENCY EVENT - REPORT
*Agency in individual and collective change
<http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/papers/257-oxford-change-agency-event-report>*
Climate Psychology Alliance with Living Witness
Written by Laurie Michaelis
A day for psychological and social practitioners to share our
experiences of enabling positive
responses to climate change.
*Discussion group: psychosocial literacy for movements*
Reflection from Eva Schonveld
In this group we were asking how insights from personal therapies,
analytic traditions and other inner
models can be applied to climate and social justice to strengthen their
impact and effectiveness in
changing the world.
We agreed that many more or less unconscious issues run through our
social activism, from dealing
with challenging interpersonal interactions, through the range of social
and cultural intolerances, to an
understanding of the range of blocks and motivations that allow, or stop
people from taking action. On
a movement level a lack of understanding of this level can weaken
groups' effectiveness. One example
we spoke about was Stop Climate Chaos, which doesn't seem to have a
sophisticated psychosocial
lens, either to develop its own internal workings, or in its framing of
issues to it's chosen audience and
is subsequently much less effective than it could be.
Emotional literacy can be supported through hands-on workshops, by
building practical, engaging
tools that can be used by communities, by sharing existing knowledge and
experience within our
movement and seeking out that of others. Unfortunately, even the idea of
working at a level that
acknowledges our personal inner worlds can feel very threatening to
many. So the first task may have
to be to persuade our movement that this is important and useful work.
The sense of urgency that we feel around our local and the wider global
situation is inherently
stressful, which can also lead to a rejection of what can be seen as
'fluffy stuff'. Working with our
perception of that sense of urgency may be supportive. It can be
re-framed as a sense of presentcentredness,
where there is nothing else to do but what one is doing, and we become
more effective
by allowing ourselves to be in the flow of the universe.
[transparency]*
**Presidency for Sale: 64 Trade Groups, Companies, Candidates, Foreign
Governments and Political Groups Spending Money at Trump's Properties
<https://corporatepresidency.org/presidencyforsale/>*
WHO'S HELD EVENTS AT TRUMP PROPERTIES? Public Citizen released a new
report documenting the political campaigns, trade group, nonprofits and
other groups that held events at Trump's properties during his first
year in office. Trade groups on the list include the *American Petroleum
Institute and the National Mining Association*. Here's the full report
<https://corporatepresidency.org/presidencyforsale/>.
https://corporatepresidency.org/presidencyforsale/
*This Day in Climate History January 18, 2017
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
The New York Times reports:
"Representative Ryan Zinke, Republican of Montana, pitched himself on
Tuesday as a serious steward of federal resources in his confirmation
hearing for interior secretary, frequently bucking conservative
orthodoxy on ownership of public lands, federal funding for
preservation and even, briefly, climate change.
"But Mr. Zinke also emphasized his support for drilling, mining and
logging on federal lands, activities strongly opposed by many
environmental groups.
"In wide-ranging testimony before a Senate panel that lasted nearly
four hours, Mr. Zinke, a former member of the Navy SEALs who just
finished his first term in the House, tried to balance the importance
of preservation with use of the nation's public lands and waters.
"Mr. Zinke broke with President-elect Donald J. Trump and even his own
past statements on climate change, disagreeing with Mr. Trump's
assertion at one point that it is 'a hoax.' Having once said that
climate change was 'not proven science,' Mr. Zinke said it was
'indisputable' that the climate is changing and that humans are having
an effect on it."
"'I think where there's debate is what that influence is, what we can
do about it,' Mr. Zinke said. 'I don't believe it's a hoax,' he added.
He later appeared to try to temper his statement, emphasizing the need
for 'objective science.'"
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.html
-
In a New York Times op-ed, former EPA official Eric Schaeffer observes:
"The president-elect's pick to run the Environmental Protection Agency
is the antithesis of what the nation should expect in the next
administrator of the agency responsible for protecting human health
and the environment.
"Attorney General Scott Pruitt of Oklahoma has built his career suing
the agency he would oversee to roll back its protection of the
nation's air and water, and challenging the very idea of federal
action to control pollution."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/opinion/reject-scott-pruitt-for-the-epa.html?ref=opinion
-
The New York Times reports:
"Marking another milestone for a changing planet, scientists reported
on Wednesday that the Earth reached its highest temperature on record
in 2016 - trouncing a record set only a year earlier, which beat one
set in 2014. It is the first time in the modern era of global warming
data that temperatures have blown past the previous record three years
in a row."
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/science/earth-highest-temperature-record.html?mwrsm=Email
/
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