[TheClimate.Vote] January 21, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Jan 21 09:26:35 EST 2018
/January 21, 2018/
[Rap video - Baba Brinkman]
*Destruction - Trump vs Global Warming Music Video
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W68mLkxYWg>*
Links and Sources (PDF) https://goo.gl/qPW5BF
Donald Trump's legacy of climate change obstruction dissected.
Sources: goo.gl/qPW5BF
[lyrics]
Tell me again and again and again
You don't believe
We're on the eve of destruction
Mr. President I'm back again after a hell of year
With a message you really don't wanna hear
Climate change is real, and everything except for
Your legacy will disappear, so lend me your ear
And let me hit you with some info you don't get to ignore
It's from a federal scientific advisory board
Straightforward, it's got the NAS's support
The National Climate Assessment Special Report
It's real! Even secretary Mattis knows it
Expanding ocean's putting military plans in motion
With a risk enhancer the chances of disasters go up
Look at the fires in California
Let me spell it out for you: rising temperatures
Without precipitation triggers drought conditions
Liquid evaporates and vegetation's dry as tinder
And that's why the state was on fire all winter
So what's the message you're sending the American people
Swearing to weasel out of the Paris Agreement?
Did you notice the 2017 hurricane season?
It was extreme, for the very same reason
It's the same message you're sending to Puerto Ricans
When they're storm-weakened and denied the support of FEMA
Maria's intensity was the ocean catching a fever
While you're tossin' paper towels at the crowd like a diva
Attackin' Colin Kaepernick just to try to distract us from
The fact of indictments landing on your campaign manager
Or whatever the latest scandal plaguin' your cabinet
Every department head appointed to dismantle it
Rippin' us off, ridiculous Betsy DeVos
Never seen a public school or even stepped in its halls
The CDC is takin' "science" and "evidence" off
The list of permitted words, which is medicine's loss
And what about Harvey, not the sexual predator
Your competitor for the credit of Molester In Chief
I mean the one that gave Texas an enema
Climate change took the regular chances and straight tripled them
Check the level of deluge in Houston
Four feet of rain in as many days, boosted
A foot or more by human carbon pollution
You've been accused of fossil fuel collusion
Of conspiracy with a Petro-State
To make American energy policy retrograde
Every renewable project, you said "no way"
But the pipelines and the drilling gets okayed?
So congratulations, you're the Neville Chamberlain
Of temperature change, 'cause instead of facin' it
You deliver craven misinformation
With a straight face to the nation
Tell me again and again and again
You don't believe
We're on the eve of destruction
What's the deal? You keep tellin' me the threat isn't real
But I'm beginnin' to feel you got something to conceal
Credible people tell us emissions are lethal
You're just tryin' to give investors in 'em a better yield
So what do we do, with a do-nothin federal government?
The electorate can get rid of republicans
Up and down the ticket as a punishment for Trumpism
The EPA's got a double agent runnin' it
But we can skip the federal regulations and act
A city can have a plan, a company and
Even a whole industry can; emissions are getting capped
By the C-40 mega-city initiative pact
And remember, the Paris Agreement isn't rescinded
Every country except for America's still in it
Plus a lot of states are still ready to build with it
America's Pledge, fifty percent still committed
Mr. President, it's already too late
To bring your descendants anything but the heaviest shame
That's your legacy, mistake after mistake
With climate change at the top of the list of messes you made
But that's enough about you
It's time for the next election cycle to rout you
I know you're not gonna change, you don't know how to
But we can still deal with the climate crisis without you
Tell me again and again and again
You don't believe
We're on the eve of destruction
credits
releases January 23, 2018
Lyrics by Baba Brinkman
Song Credits:
Lyrics by Baba Brinkman
Video by Nicholas Castel
Scientific Consultation by Dr. Gary Yohe
Song Produced, Mixed and Mastered by Tom Caruana
Chorus Vocals by Aaron Nazrul
Guitar by John Ellis
Piano and Organ by Simon Kendall
Original Song "Eve of Destruction" by Barry McGuire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W68mLkxYWg
[Tamino]
*Is CO2 Still Accelerating?
<https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/>*
Posted on January 20, 2018
Not only is the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere on the rise, the rise
itself has been getting faster - so CO2 concentration has been
accelerating. A reader recently asked whether or not there's any sign of
its increase flattening out, or even stopping its acceleration...
Bottom line: CO2 is on the rise, the rise itself (velocity) has been
getting faster (acceleration), and there's no evidence at all that has
changed recently.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/
[NPR audio report]
*California Mudslide Cleanup Presents New Problems
<https://www.npr.org/2018/01/20/579330280/california-mudslide-cleanup-presents-new-problems>*
Cleanup continues in Montecito, Calif., but it's not easy. An emergency
order will let Santa Barbara County deposit some of the mud onto local
beaches - even as they warn people to stay away.
Audio
https://www.npr.org/2018/01/20/579330280/california-mudslide-cleanup-presents-new-problems
-
[Conversation]
*Post-fire mudslide problems aren't new and likely to get worse
<https://theconversation.com/post-fire-mudslide-problems-arent-new-and-likely-to-get-worse-90048>*
The far more important effect of high and moderate severity wildfires is
that they can burn off all the surface litter and ground vegetation,
leaving a layer of easily removed ash on top of otherwise bare soil...
When winds and the first rains arrive, they quickly wash the ash away,
and the impact of raindrops on the bare soil can detach and disperse
small soil particles to create a surface seal or crust
<https://www2.nrel.colostate.edu/assets/nrel_files/labs/macdonald-lab/pubs/SSSAJ-sealing-2009.pdf>....
(See before/after satellite image
<https://theconversation.com/post-fire-mudslide-problems-arent-new-and-likely-to-get-worse-90048>
)
The resulting mixture of water, eroded soil, and rocks can quickly bulk
up to a concentrated mix of water with 10 to 40 percent sediment, or an
even more concentrated and deadly debris flow moving at up to 20 miles
per hour. Once these flows reach flatter areas or encounter obstacles,
the velocity decreases and the rocks and mud are deposited. The
potential for such flows are exacerbated in much of Southern California
because the mountains are steeper than normal due to rapid uplift along
regional faults...
In Montecito an exceptional storm cell developed over a severely burned
area, with nearly an inch of rain in just 15 minutes and over half an
inch of rain in just five minutes. Montecito is particularly at risk as
the hillslopes above town are oversteepened by faulting and rapid
uplift, and much of the town is built on deposits laid down by previous
floods...
Looking to the future, it is very clear that the problem is only going
to get worse.
First, climate change is increasing the length and severity of the fire
season by reducing snowpacks and increasing temperatures
<http://www.pnas.org/content/107/45/19167>. Warmer temperatures increase
fire risk
<https://theconversation.com/wildfires-in-west-have-gotten-bigger-more-frequent-and-longer-since-the-1980s-42993>
as well as the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water, which
isincreasing rainfall intensities
<http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1>.
Second, a policy of suppressing wildfires
<https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1240294> has increased the amount
and density of vegetation in some areas. This greater fuel load can
result in higher severity fires and more denuded hillslopes. Future
wildfires are inevitable, and when there are high temperatures, high
winds, low humidity and large fuel loads, it is not possible to safely
fight or control a large wildfire.
Nor is it possible to stop the subsequent hillslope runoff and erosion.
Debris basins or diversion structures can be built to reduce damage, but
these are expensive and often do not have sufficient capacity for
extreme post-fire storm events...
On the positive side, most burned areas generally revegetate within two
to four years. Once there is less than about 30-35 percent bare soil,
there is a greatly reduced risk
<https://www2.nrel.colostate.edu/assets/nrel_files/labs/macdonald-lab/pubs/SSSAJ-sealing-2009.pdf>
of high runoff and erosion rates.
https://theconversation.com/post-fire-mudslide-problems-arent-new-and-likely-to-get-worse-90048
[Living on Earth - audio report]
*Temperature affects human migration, new research shows
<https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-20/temperature-affects-human-migration-new-research-shows>*
January 20, 2018
Writer Adam Wernick
If global warming gas emissions continue at the present pace, the number
of asylum-seekers to Europe could increase by nearly 200 percent,
according to a new study.
Unrest, war and terrorism have boosted the number of desperate people
fleeing parts of the Middle East and Africa, but new research from
Columbia University economist Wolfram Schlenker shows a warming planet
may also be a culprit.
The research, which appears in the journal, Science, links higher
temperatures in agricultural regions with the flood of people seeking
asylum in the European Union. If current temperature trends continue,
the EU can expect an additional 600,000 or more refugees begging to
enter each year - nearly twice as many as those who currently seek asylum...
"Around 20 degrees Celsius, which is 68 degrees Fahrenheit, we see that
asylum applications seem to be lowest. If you're hotter or colder, they
tend to increase," Schlenker explains. "This implies that if you're a
country which currently has a temperature that is higher than this
optimal 20 degree Celsius level, you would see an increase with warming.
If you are in a country that currently has a temperature that is lower
than the 20 degrees Celsius optimum, you would actually see a decrease
from warming."
The second part of the paper uses this statistical relationship to
predict what could happen to asylum applications by the end of this
century. Under a "business-as-usual" scenario - continued use of fossil
fuels and high population growth - asylum applications to the EU are
predicted to increase by 188 percent.
While in scientific research there's a big difference between
correlation and causation, Schlenker feels confident that the first part
of the paper reveals a causal relationship. "Those weather shocks,
whether you're hotter than normal or colder than normal, are random and
exogenous," he explains. "So, that's not just a correlation. I'm pretty
sure this is a causal relationship."
This article is based on an interview
<http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=18-P13-00001&segmentID=2>that
aired on PRI's Living on Earth <http://loe.org/> with Steve Curwood.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-20/temperature-affects-human-migration-new-research-shows
*
****Signaling more independence from the US, the World Bank phases out
its support for fossil fuels
<https://theconversation.com/signaling-more-independence-from-the-us-the-world-bank-phases-out-its-support-for-fossil-fuels-89497>*
Jason Kirk, Elon University
The World Bank, which provides developing countries about US$60 billion
a year in financial assistance, is officially phasing out its support
for the oil and gas industries.
This move brings its actions more in sync with its overarching
commitment to slowing the pace of climate change and keeping the Paris
agreement on track. Based on my research regarding international
relations, I see this move - which World Bank President Jim Yong Kim
announced in December - as significant for two reasons.
The bank has signaled that the international community is taking the
fight against global warming more seriously than ever. And it shows that
the bank intends to keep playing a leading role in that battle at a time
when its most powerful shareholder, the U.S., is turning its back on
global environmental leadership...
The bank's climate efforts are wide-ranging. It lends money to build
solar and wind farms, requires its borrowers to take steps to shrink
their carbon footprints, and has a goal of "greening the whole financial
system.
<https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24451/K8860.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y>"...
But we expect developing countries to continue to exploit their oil and
gas deposits even without the World Bank's help, even if that means they
reap less revenue from these industries due to their weaker bargaining
power. For this reason, the bank will weigh carefully whether to pull
out of fossil fuels entirely in the very poorest countries.
The World Bank includes 188 member countries besides the U.S. Even if
the institution's bucking of fossil fuels proves somewhat less than
absolute, any progress in that direction shows how hard it would be for
the Trump administration to truly undermine the Paris climate deal.
https://theconversation.com/signaling-more-independence-from-the-us-the-world-bank-phases-out-its-support-for-fossil-fuels-89497
[data]
*Climate Action Tracker? <https://youtu.be/1PKcTrccx8o>*
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis
produced by three research organisations tracking climate action since
2009. We track progress towards the globally agreed aim of holding
warming well below 2C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5C
video Climate Action Tracker Data Portal - How To Use Guide
<https://youtu.be/1PKcTrccx8o> https://youtu.be/1PKcTrccx8o
This video is an introduction to the functionality of the Climate Action
Tracker Data Portal in which you can explore all the CAT data on
decarbonisation indicators of key sectors for various countries.
Visit the Data Portal here -
http://climateactiontracker.org/decarbonisation/intro
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis
produced by three research organisations since 2009, tracking climate
action and global efforts towards the globally agreed aim of holding
warming well below 2 C and to pursue efforts to limit temperature
increases to 1.5 C.
The CAT tracks 32 countries covering around 80% of global emissions and
calculates global warming consequence and emissions gaps based on these
countries (I)NDCs, pledges and current policies.
View country analysis here
<http://climateactiontracker.org/countries.html> -
http://climateactiontracker.org/countries.html
The CAT Consortium consists of
Climate Analytics - http://climateanalytics.org/
Ecofys - http://www.ecofys.com/en/home/
NewClimate Institute - http://newclimate.org/
Climate Action Tracker - http://climateactiontracker.org/
[change]
*Better Than Willpower
<https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/01/willpower-isnt-the-best-way-to-get-things-done/550766/>*
A new book argues that reason and perseverance aren't enough. Instead,
three emotions are the secret to getting things done.
According to Emotional Success
<https://www.indiebound.org/book/9780544703100>, a new book by the
Northeastern University psychology professor David DeSteno, it's because
we're going about pursuing our goals in the wrong way.
Instead of putting our noses ever closer to the grindstone, he advocates
relying on so-called social emotions - *gratitude, compassion, and
pride* - to get things done. These emotions, he says, naturally
encourage self-control and patience...
I recently spoke with DeSteno about his book and research. An edited
transcript of our conversation follows.
*DeSteno:* We have a problem in American society of being too
present-focused, right? We're building up huge levels of debt, we're
having crumbling infrastructure, we're doing all of these things
because people want what they want in the moment.
The problem with motivating people to solve these problems is
twofold. One is, each individual has to value the future more than
the present.*If I'm worried about climate change,* and the way to do
that is to have cleaner energy or lower my carbon footprint, I have
to be willing to expect certain discomforts. Sacrifices in the
moment ensure that we'll have a better world down the line.
When we're talking about things of scale, there's a second problem.
I can do all I want, but if Joe, my neighbor, and his friends aren't
sacrificing as well, then I'm a sucker, because climate change is
still coming.
The important thing about these emotions is they not only make us
willing to sacrifice to help other people, but they alter our views
to see other people as more trustworthy. You may say, well, doesn't
that make us more gullible, or more likely to be taken advantage of?
It can, if we're the only ones doing this.
If we start to feel these emotions more widely within a culture, it
solves that problem of thinking that other people are cheating and
being free riders. It makes us more willing to invest, because we
don't feel like our investment is going to be co-opted or exploited
by someone else. We all have to be willing to do it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/01/willpower-isnt-the-best-way-to-get-things-done/550766/
*
**
[Book announcement]
*Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for
Survival
<https://www.amazon.com/Unprecedented-Crime-Climate-Changers-Survival/dp/0998694738>*
**by Dr. Peter Carter (Author), Elizabeth Woodworth (Author), Dr.
James E. Hansen (Foreword)**
*
In 2017, the heat waves, extreme wild fires, and flooding around the
world confirmed beyond doubt that climate disruption is now a
full-blown emergency.
We have entered Churchill's "period of consequences", yet
governments have simply watched the disasters magnify, while rushing
ahead with new pipelines and annual trillions in fossil fuel subsidies.
Governments simply cannot say they did not know. The events we are
seeing today have been consistently forecast ever since the First
Assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which
was signed by all governments back in 1990, and which has been
described as the best evaluation project ever designed.
Unprecedented Crime first lays out the culpability of corporations,
governmental, political and religious bodies, and especially the
media through their failure to report or act on the climate
emergency. No emergency response has even been contemplated by
wealthy high-emitting national governments. Extreme weather
reporting never even hints at the need to address climate change ―
even though it is producing wars and migrations among the world's
poorest, those who have contributed the least to global warming.
Yet, independently of governments, scores of proven zero-carbon game
changers have been coming online all over the world. These exciting
technologies, described in the book, are now able to power both
household electricity and energy-dense heavy industry.
We already have the technical solutions to the CO2 problem. With
these solutions we can act in time to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions to near-zero within 20 years.
These willful crimes against life itself by negligent governments,
the oblivious media and an insouciant civil society are crimes that
everyday citizens can readily grasp ― and then take to the streets
and to the courts to protest on behalf of their children and
grand-children.
This thoroughly researched and highly-documented book will show them
how.
Co-author Dr. Peter Carter is an expert reviewer for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
*TABLE OF CONTENTS*
Foreword by Dr. James E. Hansen
Introduction
*PART I: CRIMES AGAINST LIFE AND HUMANITY *
Chapter 1: Extreme Weather Events Long Predicted
Chapter 2: Science Betrayed: The Crime of Denial
Chapter 3: State Crime Against the Global Public Trust
Chapter 4: Media Collusion
Chapter 5: Corporate and Bank Crime
Chapter 6: Moral Collapse and Religious Apathy
*PART II: GAME CHANGERS FOR SURVIVAL*
Chapter 7: Energy Subsidies and Tax Reform
Chapter 8: Human Rights Based Legal Challenges
Chapter 9: Game Changers in Technology & Innovation
Chapter 10: Market Leadership
Chapter 11: Civil Resistance Strategies
Chapter 12: Mission Impossible
*SCIENCE APPENDIX: Evidence of the Climate Emergency*
INDEX
https://www.amazon.com/Unprecedented-Crime-Climate-Changers-Survival/dp/0998694738
-
[Opinion from 2005]
*The Climate Movement and the Liabilities of Hope
<http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=8714&method=full>*
Ross Gelbspan
The inner fire of hope propels perseverance and, occasionally in the
face of overwhelming odds, breathtaking resolve.
In all those contexts, hope was the seed of collective heroism.
Sometimes it is only when we relinquish hope that we can fully
understand our situation and accurately pursue the course of action it
requires....
The climate crisis offers is an opportunity to begin to reshape
civilization based on our highest common aspirations and powered by our
unprecedented technological capabilities. But it requires a strong dose
of intellectual honesty.
Unfortunately activists today continue to funnel virtually all their
time and energy into defeating the carbon lobby.
The longer they cling to that misleading hope, the less likely we are to
prepare to manage -- as effectively and humanely as possible - the
period of coming chaos.
Honest hope comes from looking a hard reality in the eye.
Ross Gelbspan c 2015
http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=8714&method=full
*This Day in Climate History January 21, 2014
<http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/01/global-warming-janus-snow/>
- from D.R. Tucker*/
/In Mother Jones, Chris Mooney explains the connection between snow
and human-caused climate change:
"To understand the relationship between climate change and intense
snowfall, you first need to understand that global warming certainly
doesn't do away with winter or the seasons. So it'll still be plenty
cold enough for snow much of the time. Meanwhile, global warming loads
the dice in favor of more intense precipitation through changes in
atmospheric moisture content. 'Warming things up means the atmosphere
can and does hold more moisture,' explains Kevin Trenberth, a climate
scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,
Colo. 'So in winter, when there is still plenty of cold air there's a
risk of bigger snows. With east coast storms, where the moisture comes
from the ocean which is now warmer, this also applies.'"
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/01/global-warming-janus-snow/
/
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