[TheClimate.Vote] January 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jan 20 10:02:10 EST 2018
/January 20, 2018/
[shutdown]
*A government shutdown will interrupt critical climate change research
<https://www.vox.com/2018/1/19/16910480/government-shutdown-national-parks-climate-energy>*
Work is poised to stop at research sites as confusion spreads at federal
agencies.
What will happen to the federal government's environmental protection
work if Congress can't pass a funding bill on time? Right now, it's hard
to say.
A shutdown generally leads to furloughs for "nonessential" employees,
which means their work can't continue. It's a little murky who falls
into the "essential" category, and there are contradictory reports on
how the shutdown would actually play out...
Agencies conducting research on climate change will feel the effects of
a shutdown. During the 17-day government shutdown in 2013, research on
melting ice, rising seas, and global weather ground to a halt.
Much of climate field research requires extensive careful planning, and
research sites like the polar ice caps are only accessible at certain
times of the year. Stopping work in these areas proved especially
disruptive for data collection: It created gaps in the record and added
unexpected shutdown and restart costs.
During the 2013 shutdown, climate researchers in Antarctica funded
through the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration were forced to stop working and start
packing. Researchers who didn't work for the federal government but
relied on data like satellite observations from federal agencies were
affected too.
According to the Department of Commerce's shutdown plan, "most research
activities" at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and
NOAA would stop except computer modeling for hurricanes and for flight
planning.
https://www.vox.com/2018/1/19/16910480/government-shutdown-national-parks-climate-energy
[EPA Superfund cleanup]
*EPA official says Trump needs plan for climate change threat to
Superfund sites
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-official-says-trump-needs-plan-for-climate-change-threat-to-superfund-sites/>*
WASHINGTON — A top manager who supervises the Environmental Protection
Agency program responsible for cleaning up the nation's most
contaminated properties and waterways told Congress on Thursday that the
government needs to plan for the ongoing threat posed to Superfund sites
from climate change.
The testimony by EPA Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator Barry
Breen before a House oversight subcommittee conflicts with the agency's
policy positions under President Donald Trump, who has called climate
change a hoax. Breen's boss, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, is an
ardent fossil fuel promoter who questions the validity of mainstream
climate science.
During a hearing Thursday, Rep. Jerry McNerney, a California Democrat,
asked Breen whether extreme weather events like hurricanes and wildfires
could damage the highly toxic sites and cause contamination to spread.
"We have to respond to climate change, that's just part of our mission
set," replied Breen, a career official who leads EPA's Office of Land
and Emergency Management. "So we need to design remedies that account
for that. We don't get to pick where Superfund sites are. We deal with
the waste where it is."
There are more than 1,300 Superfund sites in the U.S...
A subsequent AP review of EPA records and census data revealed that more
than 2 million Americans live within a mile of 327 Superfund sites
located in flood-prone areas or those at risk from rising sea levels...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-official-says-trump-needs-plan-for-climate-change-threat-to-superfund-sites/
{City Council]
*Los Angeles Councilmembers call for Climate Emergency Mobilization
Department
<https://www.theclimatemobilization.org/single-post/2018/01/16/BREAKING-Los-Angeles-Councilmembers-to-roll-out-emergency-climate-motions-watch-live>*
Strong start for LA climate emergency department motions
L.A. City Councilmembers Paul Koretz and Bob Blumenfield co-sponsored a
pair of motions calling for a new Climate Emergency Mobilization
Department (CEMD) in America's second largest city.
"Our collective house is on fire and nobody knows that better than the
people of Los Angeles. It's time we started acting like it. These City
Council motions recognize the real lesson of these unprecedented winter
fires and mudslides - that the time has come for an immediate,
whole-of-society mobilization to address the climate emergency, with the
highest priority placed upon a just transition and the needs of
frontline communities."
1.A motion
<https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/fe55ec_36162e6281594725a69090cff477180f.pdf>to
establish a City of Los Angeles Climate Emergency Mobilization
Department to oversee an emergency effort to radically reduce and remove
greenhouse gas emissions citywide;
2. A request
<https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/fe55ec_58bd399fd62749a7ba8e1208527f1715.pdf>
for the use of California Office of Emergency Services mitigation funds
to establish the new department.
Motion PDF
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/fe55ec_36162e6281594725a69090cff477180f.pdf
Request PDF
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/fe55ec_58bd399fd62749a7ba8e1208527f1715.pdf
https://www.theclimatemobilization.org/single-post/2018/01/16/BREAKING-Los-Angeles-Councilmembers-to-roll-out-emergency-climate-motions-watch-live
[University of California]
*Rain goes rogue
<https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/rain-goes-rogue>*
By Brian Bell, UC Irvine
For Californians from Crescent City to Chula Vista, the second week of
2018 brought rain showers. Was it merely a fluke in the middle of an
ongoing dry spell, or does it mean we're on the verge of another wet
winter, similar to last year's? The answer, according to a UC Irvine
climatologist, is up in the air — literally and figuratively...
"In a recent paper in the Journal of Climate, we argued that warming in
the Arctic and a reduction of sea ice in the polar region has caused a
shift in the way our atmosphere functions," he says. "So that may affect
how the jet stream moves north or south, a potential factor that could
affect California."...
Another complication is the emergence of the "Pacific blob," an area of
abnormally high sea surface temperatures lasting more than 12 months.
Measurements in the Gulf of Alaska show that there have been 10 Pacific
blobs since 1948, five of them after 1990, yet more evidence of
human-induced climate change....
He acknowledges that more research is needed to determine whether
there's a direct link between the Pacific blob and rainfall in
California but says "there's a possibility. The main thing I want to
emphasize is the change in the internal workings of the atmosphere in
the Northern Hemisphere brought on by warming in the Arctic."..
"This is still just an idea, but we may be able to use the condition of
the Arctic as a new method for predicting rainfall in California," Yu
says. "By entering measurements for the sea ice extent and concentration
in the polar region in a computer model, we may be able to predict where
the jet stream is going to be located in three or six months."
He adds: "El Nino has a negative part but also a positive part, in that
it has been a way to project rainfall in California. Global warming is
obviously very negative, but there may also be a positive angle — using
Arctic warming to help us forecast wet or dry winters here."
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/rain-goes-rogue
[Current Policy]
*Study: White House abandoning science advice at unprecedented levels
<http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/369520-study-white-house-abandoning-science-advice-at-unprecedented-levels>*
By Miranda Green - from THE HILL
A report released by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) on Thursday
provides a stark portrayal of how the federal government's relationship
with scientists has deteriorated since President Donald Trump took office.
According to the report by UCS, a nonprofit group of independent
scientists, the administration's skeptical view of science advisers is
represented by diminished staffing at the White House and across various
government agencies.
President Trump is the first president in four decades to not appoint
a presidential science adviser, the report said. Less than a third of
the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is full, with
only 38 of 130 total positions filled.
In terms of government posts at the National Academies of Science that
are designated as "scientist appointees," Trump has only filled 20 out
of 77 positions. Comparatively, at the same point in their respective
administrations, President Obama had 62 roles filled and President
George W. Bush had filled 51.
Looking at science advisory boards and committees across the various
government agencies, the UCS study found that membership dropped 14
percent due to factors such as freezing of membership and disbanding of
committees altogether. Examples include the Food and Drug
Administration's disbanded Food Advisory Committee and the Department of
the Interior's (DOI) disbanded climate science advisory committee.
The total number of science advisory committee meetings in 2017 also
decreased 20 percent from 2016, the study found.
The drop in the frequency of meetings of science advisory boards was
most notable at key federal science agencies: the Department of Energy,
the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and DOI. All three met less
often in 2017 than at any time since 1997.
The findings confirmed promises made by various leaders within the Trump
administration to increase the voices of the fossil fuel industry in
advisory boards.
For example, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has noted a desire to
include more industry voices as a way to level the playing field.
Earlier this year he also banned all experts who receive grants from the
EPA from serving as advisers on any committee.
Looking at the EPA specifically, the study found that looking forward to
2018, 23 percent of those sitting on the agency's Science Advisory Board
will be industry representatives, compared to only 6 percent in 2017.
Also, 50 percent of individuals on the board will be from academia,
compared to 79 percent in 2017.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/369520-study-white-house-abandoning-science-advice-at-unprecedented-levels
-
Union of Concerned Scientists Report
Trump Administration's Strained Relationship with Science and Evidence
<https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/abandoning-science-advice-full-report.pdf>
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/abandoning-science-advice-full-report.pdf
-
[a year ago March 2017]
*Trump moves to dismantle Obama's climate legacy with executive order
<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/28/trump-clean-power-plan-executive-order-coal-industry,,>*
Environmentalists decry 'embarrassing' order to review Obama's clean
power plan and other regulations, as White House claims victory for coal
industry
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/28/trump-clean-power-plan-executive-order-coal-industry
[Why 2 is worse than 1.5]
*This graphic explains why 2 degrees of global warming will be way worse
than 1.5
<https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/19/16908402/global-warming-2-degrees-climate-change>*
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/19/16908402/global-warming-2-degrees-climate-change
https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1.5C-vs-2C-final-843x1024.jpg
[Paris Agreement calculator]
*Our "responsibility" and "capability" indices for top-50 GHG emitter
countries have finally been published.
<http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311843.2017.1420365>*
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, aims to strengthen the global
response to the
threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development. The
Agreement
will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but
differentiated
responsibilities (CBDR) and respective capabilities (RC). Our paper
introduces a
tool that ranks countries based on CBDR and RC indices. We expect that the
utilization of economic, social, technical, and environmental data in
quantification
of CBDR and RC can contribute to the understanding of definitions of
developed and
developing countries, which is missing in the Paris Agreement.*
*
*Abstract*
The aim of this paper is to develop two indices for quantifying
common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) and respective
capabilities (RC) of countries in mitigating climate change. These
composite indices can help facilitate fair allocation of GHG
emission reduction responsibilities across countries. Indices are
formulated by taking into account the economic, environmental,
social, and technical indicators of a given country. These
indicators are usually highly correlated. An index using these
indicators must take this high correlation into account, otherwise
it will either over or underestimate the responsibility and the
capability of a country. This study takes the correlation between
the indicators into account in developing the CBDR and RC indices
via the principal components method...
*2.1. Responsibility*
Allocation of responsibility is the most important point of equity
in the context of climate change. The responsibility for climate
change has scientific, political, and ethical dimensions However,
the determination of responsibilities in terms of scientific and
moral concerns is quite difficult. Although several proposals for
quantifying countries' causal or moral responsibilities have been
made there is no consensus on how to define responsibility.
Responsibility theories deal with protecting sufferers from others'
wrong actions. The principle of polluter pays, which is based on
addressing climate change problem in line with accountability for
the consequences of the problem, distributes efforts as a
compensation tool by sharing responsibilities in accordance with
contribution to the problem. Polluter pays principle is based on
the ethical notion that thou shalt not harm others or at least not
harm others "knowingly". In other words, any polluter who is
conscious about the damage he/she has caused should have greater
responsibility than others who are not aware of the consequences of
their actions.
*2.2. Capability*
Capability is highly related to the welfare, technology,
institutions, skills, information, and opportunities in a society.
It is expected that developed countries have more capacity to
address the problem. During the negotiations under the ADP, for
instance, many countries' and NGOs' stressed the relationship
between commitments and RC. The concerns were based on the
impossibility of success in the climate change negotiations without
appropriately and fairly considering the RC. When considering the
importance of GDP in the determination of capability, increasing
capacity in terms of per capita GDP is strongly associated with high
emissions and high per capita emissions. However, capability is not
only related to per capita GDP and per capita emission, but also
related to social, technological, and institutional factors modify
GDP in terms of relative prosperity levels, which are determined by
the taxable income, and obtain the gross taxable income based on the
general ability to pay. However, they only handle the economic
dimension of the RC. The technological and social dimensions should
also be integrated into economic dimensions holistically, because
un-advanced technological level may hinder the economic growth
and/or negative attitude may prevent the necessary social support
during the implementation of environmental policies.
The differentiation of commitments and contributions in the light of
national circumstances, the principle of CBDR and RC were reiterated
in the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the representation of the
countries' national circumstances through quantification of related
indicators gains a significant importance for reflecting equity and
the principle of the CBDR and RC in nationally determined
contributions including emission reductions and providing finance.
Thus, there is an urgent need to accurately use CBDR and RC to
assess the INDC of each country. Therefore, objectively quantified
CBDR and RC criteria can be useful for policy-makers and negotiators.
You can access to the article, "Developing CBDR-RC Indices for Fair
Allocation of
Emission Reduction Responsibilities and Capabilities across Countries",
<http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311843.2017.1420365>
through the
following link:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311843.2017.1420365
-
[Interactive Climate Data]
*Climate Equity Reference Calculator
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/>*
Basic Equity Settings
https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/
The Climate Equity Reference Calculator
<http://climateequityreference.org/calculator/> is a general online
equity reference tool and database that systematically applies a
generalized and transparent equity reference framework with the goal
of quantitatively examining the problem of national fair shares in a
global effort to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It can be
applied using a range of possible assumptions, and whatever values
are chosen, they are applied to all countries, in a dynamic fashion
that reflects the changing global economy.
The Calculator is designed to allow the user to specify their own
preferred interpretation of national responsibility and capability
for climate action. This interpretation is then used, together with
standard demographic and macroeconomic indicators, to determine each
country's implied fair share of the global mitigation effort. The
Calculator is designed to be quite flexible - as is immediately
visible from the options presented in their "Equity Settings"
greeting pages, and the further options available within the
Calculator's Settings panel. The goal is to support a wide range of
plausibly legitimate interpretations of the Convention's core equity
principles.
https://climateequityreference.org/calculator-about/
-
[Glossary]
* Acknowledgements
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#sc_credits>
* Adaptation cost as a % of GWP
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#adapt_cost>
* Adaptation Need
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#adapt_need>
* Business as Usual
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_bau>
* Capability
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_capacity>
* Climate Equity Reference Framework
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#def_cerp>
* Development Threshold
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_dev_threshold>
* Domestic emissions
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#dom_emissions>
* Domestic mitigation
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#dom_mitigation>
* Domestically-funded mitigation
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#dom_funded>
* Emissions elasticity
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#emiss_elast>
* Emissions embodied in trade
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#embodied_emissions>
* Emissions Intensity
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_ei>
* Equity Settings - What they are and how to use them
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_esettings>
* Fair Share
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_fair>
* Global Mitigation Pathways / Level of Global Ambition
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_path>
* Global Mitigation Requirement
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_mitreq>
* Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs)
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#def_gdrs>
* Historical Responsibility Start Date
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#cum_respons>
* Incremental Costs
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#incr_cost>
* Kyoto Obligation
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_kyoto>
* Land-use emissions
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#lu_emissions>
* Luxury Multiplier
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#lux_multiplier>
* Luxury threshold
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#lux_threshold>
* Mitigation cost as % of GWP
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#mit_cost>
* Mitigation Fair Share
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_mitob>
* Mitigation funded by other countries
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#mit_fundedbyothers>
* Mitigation funded in other countries
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#mit_other>
* Mitigation Smoothing
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#mit_lag>
* Non-CO2 gases
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#non_co2_gases>
* Pledged Effort
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_dom>
* Progressivity
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#progressivity>
* Responsibility
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_responsibility>
* Responsibility and Capability Index (RCI)
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_rci>
* Responsibility weight
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#r_weight>
* Type of Pledge
<https://calculator.climateequityreference.org/glossary.php#gloss_pledge>
-
[Greenhouse Development Rights set 2014]
*Three salient global mitigation pathways, assessed in light of the IPCC
carbon budgets
<http://gdrights.org/2014/01/14/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/>*
Jan 14, 2014
In this paper - for this post is actually a paper - we present these
three pathways - a Strong 2ºC pathway, a Weak 2 degree C pathway, and a
G8 pathway — and their levels of risk, in a fairly precise and technical
manner.
The key features of these pathways and the findings of our analysis can
be summarized as follows:
*The Strong 2 degree C pathway *is defined to be an extremely
ambitious mitigation pathway that can still be defended as being
techno-economically achievable... Emissions peak in 2014 and reach
an annual peak reduction rate of about 6.1% per year (6.0% for
fossil CO2 only). Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions after 2012 are
780 gigatonnes CO2 (Gt CO2), which is well within the IPCC's budget
of 1,010 GtCO2 for maintaining a 66% likelihood of keeping warming
below 2 degree C...
*The Weak 2 degree C pathway* is fashioned after well-known and
often-cited emissions pathways that are typically presented as
having a "likely" (greater than 66%, in the IPCC's terminology)
chance of keeping warming below 2 degree C. Emissions peak in 2014
and reach a maximum annual reduction rate of 3.3% per year (4.4% for
fossil CO2 only). Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from 2012
onward are 1,270 Gt CO2. This exceeds the IPCC's budget of 1,120
GtCO2 for maintaining a 50% chance of keeping warming below 2 degree
C, suggesting that this pathway carries substantially higher risks
than previously believed.
*The G8 pathway,* a marker of the high-level political consensus in
developed countries, is based on emissions targets given in an
official declaration of the Group of Eight industrialized countries
at its 2009 Summit in L'Aquila, Italy (G8 2009). This pathway is not
precisely specified in this declaration, but is sufficiently
well-defined that we can compare it with the IPCC budgets. Emissions
peak in 2020, decline by a maximum of 4.9% per year (6.0% for fossil
CO2 only). Its cumulative carbon dioxide budget of 1,610Gt CO2
considerably exceeds the IPCC's budget of 1,410 GtCO2 for
maintaining a 33% chance of keeping warming below 2 degree C. We
thus find that its chance of keeping warming below 2 degree C is far
less than 33%.
http://gdrights.org/2014/01/14/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/
[RAP music video ]
Baba Brinkman Jan 19, 2017
*Erosion - Donald Trump vs Global Warming Music Video
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEx-F-pSdXA>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEx-F-pSdXA
*This Day in Climate History January 21, 2015
<http://climatecrocks.com/2015/01/20/obama-makes-passionate-appeal-for-climate-action-in-state-of-the-union-address/>
- from D.R. Tucker*/
/In his State of the Union address, President Obama declares:
"No challenge - no challenge - poses a greater threat to future
generations than climate change.
"2014 was the planet's warmest year on record. Now, one year doesn't
make a trend, but this does - 14 of the 15 warmest years on record
have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century.
"I've heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they're not
scientists; that we don't have enough information to act. Well, I'm
not a scientist, either. But you know what - I know a lot of really
good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities. The
best scientists in the world are all telling us that our activities
are changing the climate, and if we do not act forcefully, we'll
continue to see rising oceans, longer, hotter heat waves, dangerous
droughts and floods, and massive disruptions that can trigger greater
migration, conflict, and hunger around the globe. The Pentagon says
that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security. We
should act like it.
"That's why, over the past six years, we've done more than ever before
to combat climate change, from the way we produce energy, to the way
we use it. That's why we've set aside more public lands and waters
than any administration in history. And that's why I will not let this
Congress endanger the health of our children by turning back the clock
on our efforts. I am determined to make sure American leadership
drives international action. In Beijing, we made an historic
announcement - the United States will double the pace at which we cut
carbon pollution, and China committed, for the first time, to limiting
their emissions. And because the world's two largest economies came
together, other nations are now stepping up, and offering hope that,
this year, the world will finally reach an agreement to protect the
one planet we've got."
http://time.com/3675705/full-text-state-union-2015/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPHH1Ykx1jY
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/01/20/obama-makes-passionate-appeal-for-climate-action-in-state-of-the-union-address/
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/20/3613554/obama-climate-state-of-the-union
/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------//
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