[TheClimate.Vote] July 19, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Jul 19 11:48:50 EDT 2018
/July 19, 2018/
[Active Wildfires]
*The Latest: Oregon wildfire grows to 70 square miles
<https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/latest-fire-knocks-power-oregon-blaze-56676314>*
A wind-whipped wildfire that started Tuesday in a rural farming area
east of Portland, Oregon, has now burned 70 square miles (181
kilometers) and prompted additional evacuations.
Substation fire spokesman Stefan Myers said Wednesday evening that
strong winds were continuing to push the blaze, prompting evacuations
farther east.
The blaze is burning along the Columbia River Gorge about 85 miles (137
kilometers) east of Portland.
Myers says firefighters were focused on protecting homes and lives and
that additional fire crews were headed to the area.
The Oregon Department of Transportation closed Highway 97 late Wednesday
afternoon from the Biggs Junction to the interchange with Highway 197
because of the fire...
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/latest-fire-knocks-power-oregon-blaze-56676314
- - - -
[Fast action]
*Gov. Brown declares statewide wildfire emergency
<https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/07/governor_declares_statewide_wi.html>*
Gov. Kate Brown declared a statewide wildfire emergency, activating a
standing agreement with the Oregon National Guard - Operation Plan
Smokey - that makes helicopters and troops available to fight fires at
the request of the Oregon Department of Forestry.
The declaration also allows the Office of Emergency Management to
coordinate with other states if additional assets are needed...
https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/07/governor_declares_statewide_wi.html
[Data]
*Global Temperature Update
<https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/global-temperature-update-5/>*
Posted on July 18, 2018
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has published their
data for global average temperature anomaly in June of this year.
*T**he five hottest years on record are the last five years.*
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/global-temperature-update-5/
[reminder]
*Atlantic Ocean circulation is not collapsing - but as it shifts gears,
global warming will reaccelerate
<http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/>*
http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/
[Methane]
*Thawing permafrost microbiomes fuel climate change
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180716151529.htm>*
Date: July 16, 2018
Source: University of Queensland
Summary:
A new study could lead to more accurate predictions or the rate of
global warming from greenhouse gas emissions produced by thawing
permafrost in the next 100 years. The study of the microorganisms
involved in permafrost carbon degradation links changing microbial
communities and biogeochemistry to the rise of greenhouse gas emissions...
- - -
The study of the microorganisms involved in permafrost carbon
degradation links changing microbial communities and biogeochemistry to
the rise of greenhouse gas emissions...
- - - -
"As global temperatures rise, large amounts of carbon sequestered in
perennially frozen permafrost are becoming available for microbial
degradation," Dr Woodcroft said.
"Until now, accurate prediction of greenhouse gas emissions produced
from thawing permafrost has been limited by our understanding of
permafrost microbial communities and their carbon metabolisms."
Using sequencing techniques pioneered by Professor Tyson, over 200
samples from intact, thawing and thawed permafrost sites in northern
Sweden were examined.
DNA sequences of more than 1500 microbial genomes all new to science and
involved in complex biochemical networks were recovered...
- - - -
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimated that
between 30 and 99 per cent of near-surface permafrost could disappear by
2100," she said.
"Northern permafrost wetlands contribute a significant portion of global
methane emissions, particularly as collapsing permafrost can create the
perfect anaerobic conditions for methane-producing microorganisms
(methanogens), and their metabolic partners, to thrive.
"This is important as methane is a potent greenhouse gas - 25 times more
efficient at trapping the sun's radiation in our atmosphere than carbon
dioxide."
She said that as permafrost thaws, methane emissions increase, causing a
positive feedback loop where increased atmospheric warming caused more
thawing.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180716151529.htm
[Just data; Climate migration]
*"The United Nations (UN) estimates that in 2008 20 million people were
displaced by climate change." <https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23899195>*
In the longer term, he said, "you can imagine that the UN estimates of
200 million such refugees, more than the total number of worldwide
migrants today, may be about right".
We cannot comment in any way on the accuracy of a figure we did not produce
UN spokesperson
The MP told the BBC it would be inaccurate to say he "warned that
climate change will create 200 million migrants". He added, however: "It
would be accurate to say that I argued that we have to tackle the push
factors that affect migration such as climate change as otherwise the
numbers who are made environmental refugees may reach the estimate of
200 million."
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23899195
- - - -
[Estimates]
*Climate refugees: how many are there? How many will there be?
<http://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-how-many/>*
"24 million people were displaced by weather related disasters this
year. As climate change begins to alter patterns of disasters, we can
imagine these figures will get worse."
http://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-how-many/
- - - -
[Data from 2016 and 2017]
*Global Report on Internal Displacement
<http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/>*
The Global Report on Internal Displacement presents the latest
information on internal displacement worldwide caused by conflict,
violence and disasters.
NEW DISPLACEMENTS - CONFLICT
There were 6.9 million new internal displacements by conflict and
violence in 2016. Sub-Saharan Africa overtook the Middle East as the
region most affected, with almost one million new displacements in the
Democratic Republic of Congo as a result of violent clashes in the
provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Kasai.
Significant levels of displacement continued in the Middle East, with
Syria, Iraq and Yemen experiencing close to two million new
displacements in total during 2016.
http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/
- - -
[Relief Web report of 2017]
*Climate Migrants Might Reach One Billion by 2050
<https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-migrants-might-reach-one-billion-2050>*
Currently, forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion environmental
migrants by 2050, moving either within their countries or across
borders, on a permanent or temporary basis, with *200 million being the
most widely cited estimate*, according to a 2015 study carried out by
the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations
University.
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-migrants-might-reach-one-billion-2050
[why not]
*Could Trade War Be Climate Tool?
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/18/could-trade-war-be-climate-tool/>*
July 18, 2018
Beat protectionism and emissions at a stroke
<https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7>
Applying carbon charges, not trade tariffs, to imports would bolster the
Paris Agreement, argue Michael Mehling and colleagues.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/18/could-trade-war-be-climate-tool/
[video - Beckwith- all about Methane]
*Methane: Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3irArpE_FU>*
Paul Beckwith - Published on Jul 15, 2018
Abrupt climate change, specifically Arctic Temperature Amplification is
rapidly taking us on a collision course to an ice-free Arctic, and is
threatening to turn vast stores of carbon in thawing permafrost and
sea-floor sediments into methane and carbon dioxide, further increasing
warming in a vicious cascade of feedback loops. In this ongoing series
on methane, I discuss details of methane release on land, under the
oceans, and chat about how it changes climate. Natural sources are
emitting more methane with warming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3irArpE_FU
CLIMATE MODELLING
19 April 2018
*Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate
change
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change>*
Over the past few years, an international team of climate scientists,
economists and energy systems modellers have built a range of new
"pathways" that examine how global society, demographics and economics
might change over the next century. They are collectively known as the
"Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs)...
- - - -
The SSPs are based on five narratives describing broad socioeconomic
trends that could shape future society. These are intended to span the
range of plausible futures.
They include: a world of sustainability-focused growth and equality
(SSP1); a "middle of the road" world where trends broadly follow their
historical patterns (SSP2); a fragmented world of "resurgent
nationalism" (SSP3); a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4); and a
world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy
use (SSP5).
The narrative for each is described in detail below:
SSP narratives
*SSP1 Sustainability - Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to
mitigation and adaptation)*
The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more
sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that
respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the
global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments
accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic
growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven
by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals,
inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption
is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy
intensity.
*SSP2 Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and
adaptation)*
The world follows a path in which social, economic, and
technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns.
Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries
making relatively good progress while others fall short of
expectations. Global and national institutions work toward but make
slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals.
Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are
some improvements and overall the intensity of resource and energy
use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in
the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or
improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to
societal and environmental changes remain.
*SSP3 Regional Rivalry - A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation
and adaptation)*
A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and
security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly
focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. Policies shift over
time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional
security issues. Countries focus on achieving energy and food
security goals within their own regions at the expense of
broader-based development. Investments in education and
technological development decline. Economic development is slow,
consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or
worsen over time. Population growth is low in industrialized and
high in developing countries. A low international priority for
addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental
degradation in some regions.
*SSP4 Inequality - A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high
challenges to adaptation)*
Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined with
increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power,
lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and
within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an
internationally-connected society that contributes to knowledge- and
capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented
collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a
labor intensive, low-tech economy. Social cohesion degrades and
conflict and unrest become increasingly common. Technology
development is high in the high-tech economy and sectors. The
globally connected energy sector diversifies, with investments in
both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil, but
also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on
local issues around middle and high income areas.
*SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development - Taking the Highway (High challenges
to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)*
This world places increasing faith in competitive markets,
innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid
technological progress and development of human capital as the path
to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly
integrated. There are also strong investments in health, education,
and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same
time, the push for economic and social development is coupled with
the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption
of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All
these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy, while
global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Local
environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed.
There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and
ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary.
Narratives for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, from Riahi et al 2017...
- - - -
A key questions for scientists and policymakers is what will happen if
the world takes no action to address climate change.
One of the big changes brought by the release of the SSPs is a
broadening of the baseline no-new-policy scenarios available to
researchers. Over much of the past decade researchers have tended to use
the high-emission high-warming RCP8.5 as their "business as usual"
baseline - a worst-case scenario of unchecked warming to compare against
futures where emissions are mitigated.
One important takeaway is a shift in the definition of "business as
usual". Instead of a single worst-case scenario, the SSPs present a wide
range of future emissions possible in the absence of climate policy,
though all the new baseline scenarios result in at least 3.1C warming
(and up to 5.1C) by 2100...
- - - - -
It is also possible that the world will follow more of a SSP1 or SSP4
pathway of rapid technological development and falling costs of things
such as solar energy, battery storage, transmission technologies and
other changes. These would reduce barriers to mitigation and result in
more modest emissions and warming, even in the absence of climate policies.
However, the developers of the SSPs make no claim as to the relative
likelihood of any scenario coming to pass. It is certainly possible to
imagine a SSP3 or SSP5 world of high emissions. With the multiple
scenarios, researchers will now be able to compare mitigation outcomes
to a more realistic range of baseline worlds.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change
*This Day in Climate History - July 19, 2010
<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html> -
from D.R. Tucker*
July 19, 2010: Acclaimed climate scientist Stephen Schneider passes away
at 65.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html
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